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The Football Tips Thread IV
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Good morning.
Dutch matches for today.
Much harder to find value than yesterdays matches but here we go:
At 11.30 GMT Utrecht - NEC Nijmegen
I have a 6fold of all matches going over2,5 (all 5 of last nights matches came in) depending on this one.
Was basically done as a fun bet but it got serious now.
Home win for Utrecht is the obvious one to take here @1.80 (bet365)/ @1.84 (marathon)
NEC has lost their last 4 away games while Utrecht has had the best months of december/january of all Dutch eredivisie clubs.
Utrecht will be without new signing Toornstra. Debatable of how much you can miss someone who only played 1 match for your club but he was outstanding against Twente last week.
NEC will have to replace their 1st choice GK but that shouldnt have much infuence on their defense, the replacemnt started the season as 1st choice and was that for years.
Conditions (weather) might play a part in this match. Pitch has always had problems and yesterday it still snowed in Holland during the evening matches.
With that in mind, i am going to lay my overs bet on this match just to guarantee profit. Dont take this as a tip
At 13.30 Feyenoord - AZ
Not a secret that i am a Feyenoord fan so take that in mind
Never easy against AZ who play a nice game of football.
Big man is Adam Maher in midfield although Altidore is doing well for them as well.
AZ will be without Viktor Elm, suspended, and i think that will have an effect on them seeing that he will most likely be replaced by Willie Overtoom. Completely different player much more creative but lacks a bit defensive thinking compared to Elm.
Feyenoord has almost no one left on the injury list, Just a CD (no, not cross dresser) who is probably 4th in the picking order anyway.
Immers will be back in the team after suspension.
Too bad for us, last weeks double goal scorer Vilhena will move back to a more defensive roll. He was @7,5 last week and today is @8 (same odds as some defender at Feyenoord who isnt really near the 1st team)
Pelle is 1st choice for penalties, Vilhena no 2 and i don think Pelle likes taking penalties too much. And today is against his old club so i can easily see him pass the ball over to Vilhena if Feyenoord gets a penalty. Which they do get a lot.
Feyenoord has not been defeated at home in all of 2012. And Feyenoord has Pelle, 15 goals this season, 12 were at home
Feyenoord win @1,75 is low though because it can easily end in a draw.
For the more adventurous ones amongst you: Feyenoord win by 1 goal @3.75 (bet365)/3.55 (marathon)
Also at 13.30 Ajax - Roda
Best to avoid this one, really nothing there i can find that is value.
Ajax plays Steaua Bucarest in midweek and will want to go as far as possible in the EL.
They hope to accomplish what Feyenoord did in 2002, play the EL final at home so no matter what other clubs do, Ajax will give the EL everything they got.
With that in mind, if they manage to take a healthy early lead, they will just stroll through the rest of the match.
Not a single Ajax player with proper odds for any time either.
If you really must take a bet on this match, take Malki (Roda) any time @3,5 which is actually nice odds.
At 15.30 Zwolle - Twente
Twente with their clown of a manager is doing their best to mess up a good chance to become champions again.
Must win game for them after PSV dropped points last night (Same goes for Feyenoord, Ajax btw) but i am not too sure they can do that here.
Zwolle has an awful home record but they are certainly not playing bad at all. They are above the likes of VVV and Willem II. just have been unlucky/unexperienced at times.
Twente is missing:
Denny Landzaat (kuit), Nacer Chadli (hamstring), Andrej Rendla (knie), Andreas Bjelland (voet), Daniel Fernandes (rug), Wout Brama (geschorst), Rasmus Bengtsson (geschorst).
Most of them are regulars or 1st called upon when there is players missing. Chadli missing is a blow for them (Dont mind the dutch, that is just saying what is wrong with them)
Zwolle DC @2.15 looks good but bare in mind, Zwolle 10 home games played, only 3 x would this have been a winner.
So my picks
Malki any time 3.5
Vilhena any time 8
Zwolle DC 2.1
In a small patent, a really small patent.
All matches going over 2,5 today is +/- @7
All teams to score is +/- @9
I dont think either will happen after last night. A weekend where all matches go over and or all teams score is very rare, even in Holland.
Zwolle - Twente and/or Feyenoord AZ will be ruining at least one of those.
As said, i have an @21.66 hanging on Utrecht - NEC so obviously i have looked at some more stats for that one
Utrect at home score 73% of their goals in the 2nd half
Utrecht to score i nthe 2nd half @1.55
Also:
Utrecht at home (10 matches) had 5x HT/FT Draw/Utrecht
Today this is @4.75
8x times it was draw at HT
Today this is @2.3
Last 3 away for NEC all had HT/FT 1-0/2-0
Today this is @150 -
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€300 on 0-0 between Man U and Everton at 14/10
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbIpgHVHLL4
This discussion has been closed.
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