Boxing betting thread

Morrison J

Has to catch up with him eventually I agree but I'm not convinced Jack is the man to show it up tbh. If Jack was a box and move kind of guy then maybe but he loves a trade in the pocket. He's been knocked out before on Shobox, has been in razor close fights with the likes of Groves, Dirrell and DeGale. Moving up another level now. I think it's a very risky fight for him.

I've gone against Jack before though and been proven wrong so we'll see.

Morrison J

Tete is the value bet there for sure.

If the seeding is done the same as last time then I'm pretty sure it's done by whoever held their title the longest.

That'd make the seeding be:

1-Tete
2-Burnett
3-Rodriguez
4-Inoue

So presuming that four win their first round fights it'd be Tete v Rodriguez and Burnett v Inoue in the semi's. On that basis Tete's value looks even better given he's avoiding Inoue till the final.

I struggle to see past Inoue though tbh. He looks like a truly elite fighter I think and a level above the pack.

To be honest though I dunno how comfortable I'd be backing anyone outright. One bad injury and that's your stake in the bin. I was going to back Groves going into the Super Middle tournament given how he somehow wasn't favourite. Thankful I didn't now. I'd be sweating given all these rumours of him getting replaced.

qwabercd

Fury to win on points at 10/1 on the exchange looks decent value to me. Admittedly I know nothing about the opponent but he did go the distance with charr just under 2 years ago. Fury doesn't have crazy KO power and is bound to be a bit rusty after the layoff.

langer91

Nick Webb by KO TKO or DQ against Dave Allen at 13/8 tomorrow night. Had a nice sized bet.

langer91

pac_man wrote: »

Allen seems to be able to take a punch and I'm not sure if Webb is the banger his record suggests given the level of opposition. Are you going on the premise of Allen out of shape?

That and Allen was knocked out a month ago, and is taking this fight on short notice. Also read online that he's taking a break after this fight, and had initially said he was on a break before accepting this fight presumably for a pay check. Given his lack of recovery time, while Webb seems to be in good shape, I'm taking my chances he'll get the stoppage win.

Morrison J

Small gamble on Peynaud to beat Benn @ 10/1. Step up to a 10 rounder for Benn who was hurt by Peynaud before. Full camp for Peynaud this time too.

walshb

10-1 for Peynaud are very generous odds. He almost got the job done first time. Excellent fight. This return match could bevfight of the night.

Rezident

Paddy Barnes might be good value at 21/10 with the home crowd. What do people think?

He should be heavier too and he reckons he's stronger.

PopePalpatine

Rezident wrote: »

Paddy Barnes might be good value at 21/10 with the home crowd. What do people think?

He should be heavier too and he reckons he's stronger.

The Post tipped him in today's paper. They've a decent hit rate at boxing AFAIK.

Morrison J

Askin to beat Okolie at 7/4. All over it.

thebull85

Only tuning into the Glasgow card now, Are joyce and foley on the main card?

thegrowreport

pac_man wrote: »

Anyone know much about Darragh Foley? He talks a good game and is high up in the rankings but has fought nobody . Fighting tonight on boxnation but more interested in his opponents price (21/10).

Well did you bet on him?

Morrison J

Anyone got any thoughts on Porter v Garcia? Porter the underdog and I kinda fancy him to pull it off. Think he'll be a bit too active for Garcia and should have the chin to take his shots coming in.

thegrowreport

pac_man wrote: »

Backed the opponent Chris Jenkins. Open to correction but I think get my money back as it was a technical draw? Was shaping up to be a decent fight until he got cut. Did you do anything yourself? Stephen Ormond was in a great fight.

Nah no money down on any of these fights. Don't do much gambling these days but like to look in on this thread to see what's cookin'.:p

Yes I believe you should get your money back on this result.

Would love to see Foley continue his progress and Yes the Ormond fight was excellent - great result for 'The Rock'. He is flying these days.. Some great Irish talent doing very well lately.

megadodge

pac_man wrote: »

Backed the opponent Chris Jenkins. Open to correction but I think get my money back as it was a technical draw? Was shaping up to be a decent fight until he got cut. Did you do anything yourself? Stephen Ormond was in a great fight.

Not sure about getting your money back. Certainly online if you bet on x to win and x didn't win - tough!

Maybe if it's a local bookie you know well, you could talk him into giving you your money back, but I wouldn't be holding out any major hope.

Technical draws are also the reason I often have a sneaky little bet at very big odds on the draw. Head clash first round and on Betfair at least you could have odds between 50/1 and 75/1. My best one came in at 54/1, only had a fiver on it, but still...

Donald Trump

pac_man wrote: »

Anyone know much about Darragh Foley? He talks a good game and is high up in the rankings but has fought nobody . Fighting tonight on boxnation but more interested in his opponents price (21/10).

Nice fella. Was quiet enough.



Never really stood out as a young lad. At least from the time when I remember him. But that's a long time ago. I'd say he was 16 or 17 before he started boxing so he probably wasn't doing it too long at that stage. Got beaten in the juniors or U21s by a fella from his own club.



I remember reading somewhere about him in an article onilne after he turned pro in Oz and being surprised and searching for photos to see if it was still the same fella. Have been following his progress since then. Boxrec used to have him marked down as Australian, British, then even Japanese at one stage before sticking the tricolour beside his name. I think that is how he was under the radar for most. And being born in England too so they had that down as his place of birth. Although I don't know when he moved to Ireland but he always had a strong Dub accent


Delighted to see him do well though.

megadodge

pac_man wrote: »

Sorry I'm only getting back to this now. I was onto PP and am none the wiser as the chap I was talking to wasn't that clued up on boxing. I did the bet in their shop. I've found this on their website.



The bolded part is where my confusion lies. Is there a difference between draw and technical draw in betting terms? I'd imagine it would be a bit different on betfair as they generally have more markets.

I've no idea what the emboldened bit means, but in general a Technical Draw is a Draw. You'll even see it on boxers records as a draw. You may be thinking of a No Contest, which I believe can be the result in certain jurisdictions in similar circumstances.

On the No Contest bouts, last year I had a few bets on a particular fight and one was 'Yes' to go the distance. It was a No Contest and I got my money back on the other bets, but as the bout didn't go the distance I lost that one - despite my protests to the Helpdesk!

Morrison J

Morrison J wrote: »

Anyone got any thoughts on Porter v Garcia? Porter the underdog and I kinda fancy him to pull it off. Think he'll be a bit too active for Garcia and should have the chin to take his shots coming in.

Going with Porter on points at 11/5. I think Porter is getting very overlooked in this fight. Could very easily be a fighter with no losses. I thought he edged it against Brook personally and the Thurman fight was very close and competitive even though I did have Thurman winning it by a couple of rounds. Thought Garcia was soundly beaten by Thurman in comparison though. 
This will be a close fight but Porter is good value I think.

Morrison J

pac_man wrote: »

Morrison J wrote: »

Going with Porter on points at 11/5. I think Porter is getting very overlooked in this fight. Could very easily be a fighter with no losses. I thought he edged it against Brook personally and the Thurman fight was very close and competitive even though I did have Thurman winning it by a couple of rounds. Thought Garcia was soundly beaten by Thurman in comparison though. 
This will be a close fight but Porter is good value I think.

This fight does nothing for me. Porter is just a bulldozer that leads in with his head. I can envisage it going the distance and maybe Garcia scraping a win.

I'm more interested in your confidence in Askin. I think he's going to struggle with someone so rangey like Okolie.

I'm still not buying Okolie and I also think Askin is a very good fighter in his own right. Just think it's a pure levels fight to be honest. I'd take Askin's boxing ability over Okolie's every day of the week and Askin is a good puncher too. He's getting seriously good sparring with Hughie Fury and Nathan Gorman too.

If Okolie wins I'm no longer doubting him. I really do think he comes unstuck in this one though. Askin is a way better fighter than Chamberlain or Watkins.

Sprinter Sacre

Garcia looks a little too short tonight. Porter as big as 2.4 in some places is good value. Garcia should be no shorter than 1.75 really. I think Palicte @4 to beat Nietes is good value too. Nietes is an all time great of the lower divisions but he's 36 and fighting a bigger, longer, stronger, more powerful fighter as well as jumping up a weight class.

Morrison J

Small-ish bet on Lemieux to KO Spike this weekend at evens.


I think this is a horrendous matchup for Spike. Standing in front of Lemieux is asking for trouble and Spike doesn't have the legs to do anything else but make it a war. Highlight reel KO potential or Paschal to be throwing in the towel depending on how Spike's chin holds up.

Sprinter Sacre

I think Lemieux is God awful and the only reason people consider him decent is because Golovkin fought him but yeah he should be steam rolling someone as poor as Spike in a couple of rounds. Evens is a fine price.

Morrison J

pac_man wrote: »

Morrison J wrote: »

Small-ish bet on Lemieux to KO Spike this weekend at evens.


I think this is a horrendous matchup for Spike. Standing in front of Lemieux is asking for trouble and Spike doesn't have the legs to do anything else but make it a war. Highlight reel KO potential or Paschal to be throwing in the towel depending on how Spike's chin holds up.

Couldn't agree more. I've just noticed with the predication thing and this thread,you must have had a bit of luck with the boxing betting lately?

Definitely having my best year ever so far alright. Apart from Selby - Warrington I haven't really had any disasters yet. Think I'm just betting more based on value and picking my spots better than I have before really. Only betting on things I have strong feelings for that prices seem off for and resisting betting on other stuff. Dodged bullets on the likes of Lara-Hurd and Broner-Vargas that in past years I'd have been all over regardless of price. On a good run at the minute but no doubt it'll start evening itself out sooner than later!

Morrison J

Sprinter Sacre wrote: »

I think Lemieux is God awful and the only reason people consider him decent is because Golovkin fought him but yeah he should be steam rolling someone as poor as Spike in a couple of rounds. Evens is a fine price.

No doubt Lemieux is very limited but his power is definitely legit and there isn't many I'd back to be able to stand and trade with him. I'd actually be a bit worried for Spike going into this. Dangerous fight for him to be taking.

Boooourns

Morrison J wrote: »

No doubt Lemieux is very limited but his power is definitely legit and there isn't many I'd back to be able to stand and trade with him. I'd actually be a bit worried for Spike going into this. Dangerous fight for him to be taking.

The only worry i'd have is to see how he reacts after being completely dominated by Saunders, lots of boxers completely lose their heart and edge after a defeat like that.
Obviously i'll be shouting on Spike but i'd fancy Lemieux to win it if he still has it.

Morrison J

Boooourns wrote: »

Morrison J wrote: »

No doubt Lemieux is very limited but his power is definitely legit and there isn't many I'd back to be able to stand and trade with him. I'd actually be a bit worried for Spike going into this. Dangerous fight for him to be taking.

The only worry i'd have is to see how he reacts after being completely dominated by Saunders, lots of boxers completely lose their heart and edge after a defeat like that.
Obviously i'll be shouting on Spike but i'd fancy Lemieux to win it if he still has it.

True I just think there seems to be a fair bit of needle between the two. Both doing a lot of talking and both seem well up for it. I'd be surprised if Lemieux looked for an easy way out. 

Main reason I'm only having a small-ish bet is that Lemieux is a bit dead at the weight. Really struggles to make 160. The weigh in itself will be very interesting. Spike can bang and if Lemieux isn't feeling strong at the weight then Spike definitely has a chance. If the Lemieux that fought Curtis Stevens turns up though I really struggle to give Spike much hope at all.

FTA69

9/4 on Canelo to win on points, I'll have a nibble. 4/1 on Golovkin to win in the latter six isn't a bad punt either.

twowheelsonly

Fancy Golovkin to win by KO but can't make up my mind when !!! Might just go for 'To win by ko /tko at 15/8 (Ladbrokes)

With Spike /Lemieux I'd fancy Spike more as the fight goes on. If it goes past 5 or 6 I think he can win by KO. First round or two will be a brawl so I'd rate that 50:50, as is any brawl when there's two big punchers at it. If Lemieux keeps the head he can win before 5 but anything after 5 or 6 I'd be edging towards Spike. Interesting fight.

Morrison J

Lemieux looked as good as he could in the weigh in I thought. Really can't see Spike winning this. I don't think the beginning will be 50/50 as Lemieux is simply the better brawler with more power.

FTA69

FTA69 wrote: »

9/4 on Canelo to win on points, I'll have a nibble. 4/1 on Golovkin to win in the latter six isn't a bad punt either.

Yurt.