Boxing betting thread

Morrison J

Bad day at the office. Thought Estrada sneaked it myself but could've gone either way. One card way too wide.

normanoffside

Groves now 7/2 on PP to win by TKO/KO/DQ

Morrison J

Yafai - McDonnell to go the distance at evens looks good to me.

normanoffside

7/2 for a Dirrell decision victory tomorrow seems a bit big....

normanoffside

pac_man wrote: »

Dirrell is mentally weak and is constantly moaning to the ref when the going gets tough. I don't think he's the same fighter even up as far as the Degale fight.

I watched this interview of him and there's a constant reference to his mental state in the ring and that Hunter is drilling that into him.He doesn't sound the maywest going by that video. I don't think it's a fight i'd touch but given that Uzcgui should have won the first fight, I'd fancy him in the rematch.

I agree with all the Dirrell weaknesses you mentioned but his opponent is nothing special. I looked at the odds half expecting Dirrell to be a slight favourite but instead he is a big underdog. I think the only way he wins is on points and I think it’s more likely than 2 chances in 9. I’m not looking at the most likely overall outcome just skewed odds.

Morrison J

I actually backed Uzcategui to win the first fight at 7/1. Still hurts.

I think he'll knock Dirrell out tomorrow in the mid-rounds but I wouldn't back him at odds on. The value betting wise probably is with Dirrell but I'm staying away from it myself.

normanoffside

Morrison J wrote: »

I actually backed Uzcategui to win the first fight at 7/1. Still hurts.

I think he'll knock Dirrell out tomorrow in the mid-rounds but I wouldn't back him at odds on. The value betting wise probably is with Dirrell but I'm staying away from it myself.

Uzcategui at 7/1 was seriously good odds and you are very unlucky there. 4/6 is not very attractive though.

Morrison J

normanoffside wrote: »

Uzcategui at 7/1 was seriously good odds and you are very unlucky there. 4/6 is not very attractive though.

They were stupidly wide odds at the time. Think they came in a fair amount by the time the fight actually happened but PP opened at 7/1 which was mental. I wouldn't touch 4/6 myself either. Uzcategui via KO at 5/2 isn't terrible imo but I still wouldn't back it.

normanoffside

pac_man wrote: »

I agree that there's value in that 7/2 but I just wouldn't touch the fight.

I've a sneaking suspicion that Atif Shafiq might do the business @6/4 on the Kell Brook undercard. A good boxer if he doesn't get caught.

That Yafai - McDonnell to go the distance at evens that Morrison J looks a good bet if only you could get it at evens now. 4/6 with pp. Are you doing any other bets?

I just put a small wager on double of Dirrell on pts and Wilder inside the distance. It came in just over 6/1 overall.

Urindanger

Wilder by points @ 9/2 seems decent. Ortiz is a tough lad and Wilder has come in very light leading me to believe he's going to try and be light on his feet and try and box his way to the win. Ortiz is most lethal if Wilder starts going for it inside.

normanoffside

Morrison J wrote: »

Yafai - McDonnell to go the distance at evens looks good to me.

Great shout. Squeaky bum time near the end.

Morrison J

Christ. Not sure the winnings will be worth the years that took off my life. Yafai looked toast by the 7th.

Boooourns

Urindanger wrote: »

Wilder by points @ 9/2 seems decent. Ortiz is a tough lad and Wilder has come in very light leading me to believe he's going to try and be light on his feet and try and box his way to the win. Ortiz is most lethal if Wilder starts going for it inside.

I've been looking at that price as well, Ortiz is a tough mutha, he's also a good boxer. Wilder is ..well...wild. Can certainty see it go the distance.
Rabchenko is 10-1, worth a small bet with Brooks recent history.

Brock Turnpike

Boooourns wrote: »

I've been looking at that price as well, Ortiz is a tough mutha, he's also a good boxer. Wilder is ..well...wild. Can certainty see it go the distance.
Rabchenko is 10-1, worth a small bet with Brooks recent history.

Betting suspended on Rabchenko on PP atm??

Boooourns

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

Betting suspended on Rabchenko on PP atm??

Because it was probably over by then ha, he was awful.

normanoffside

Truax is 5/1 to beat DeGale in the rematch. Seems like crazy odds.

walshb

normanoffside wrote: »

Truax is 5/1 to beat DeGale in the rematch. Seems like crazy odds.

DeGale 12/1 on...huge favorite..

Truax is very ordinary. I think DeGale simply had a horrible day at the office for whatever reason(s). And the bookies must be thinking that he really is out to correct that, and can’t cock up again..

Not at all surprised he’s a favorite, but 12-1 on seems very generous to him.

normanoffside

walshb wrote: »

DeGale 12/1 on...huge favorite..

Truax is very ordinary. I think DeGale simply had a horrible day at the office for whatever reason(s). And the bookies must be thinking that he really is out to correct that, and can’t cock up again..

Not at all surprised he’s a favorite, but 12-1 on seems very generous to him.

Obviously De Gale can't be touched at 1/12.
5/1 for Truax seems very generous. I'd make Chunky a slight favourite but those odds are ridiculous.
Is De Gale really going to have improved that much in 5 months?
The fight is also in Vegas which should rule out a dodgy decision in DeGale's favour. Truax won the first fight a lot more handily that the MD suggests. It was a clear UD.

walshb

DeGale was dreadful. Nothing at all on his shots...

If he can get even close to his best I’d expect him to win fairly well...

normanoffside

walshb wrote: »

DeGale was dreadful. Nothing at all on his shots...

If he can get even close to his best I’d expect him to win fairly well...

There's a fair chance that DeGale is done though which makes 5/1 very tempting.
If his old shoulder injury was holding him back in December, will it be any better now?

I think I'll hold off for the outcome betting odds to come out. If I can get 7 or 8/1 on Truax on points I think it's definitely worth a tenner,

walshb

I think we’ll see a Brook/Carson Jones affair...

Brook scraping past Jones in fight 1 and almost taken out. Rematch he adjusted and won well..

Morrison J

Think DeGale more than likely wins a close one in the rematch but 5/1 is very good value on Truax I agree. Fight announced on very short notice so I'd assume the fighters had more notice than that and have started camp weeks beforehand. DeGale's stamina is not good and if he hasn't had a full training camp and if he's not fully fit he'll probably lose again.

I'm also a bit worried his body is just breaking down a bit after the shoulder surgery and that. With so many question marks there's no way he should be as short as 1/12.

normanoffside

Jessie Vargas is 11/8 to beat Broner at 144lbs.
That's another one I have my eye on

Morrison J

normanoffside wrote: »

Jessie Vargas is 11/8 to beat Broner at 144lbs.
That's another one I have my eye on

Looks good value to me too. I'll prob hold out for the better value on Vargas points though. Can't see Broner getting stopped.

normanoffside

Morrison J wrote: »

Looks good value to me too. I'll prob hold out for the better value on Vargas points though. Can't see Broner getting stopped.

Yeah, the points bet will be the one to get in that fight. 2/1+ would be great. PP/Betfair seem to be opening a lot of markets on these type of fights. I think there could be a job there

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

Jessie Vargas is 11/8 to beat Broner at 144lbs.
That's another one I have my eye on

Too slow on this one I fear.
Vargas is now favourite in places

Morrison J

Anyone think there might be a bit of value on Joshua points at the weekend? 4/1.

megadodge

Morrison J wrote: »

Anyone think there might be a bit of value on Joshua points at the weekend? 4/1.

I think it's the best value bet out there. I'll be having a few punts on it.

From what I've read both will be coming in lighter, which obviously looks like Parker will be using plenty of movement and he has quick feet. He also seems to have a good chin, so it's a decent shout.

Johner

5/1 best price.

I'd be stunned if Parker last the twelve.

megadodge

Johner wrote: »

5/1 best price.

I'd be stunned if Parker last the twelve.

My post was about the 'value bet' which basically means there's a better chance of something happening than the bookies reckon, not that I actually think it's highly likely. In other words it's priced wrongly in my opinion.

I can see this going long for either a late stoppage or a clear points win both for Joshua.

Edit: Just checked on Betfair and you can get Joshua on pts at 6/1 right now.