Official Free Money Betting Thread 2012/2013 Mark II Redemption

LeeroyJones

Rightwing wrote: »

What about points scored, over 42.5 looks pretty good to me at 5/6.

Not convinced that we'll see a lot of tries. I'd predict 2, maybe 3. I think the Lions will be quite strong in defence and in attack will be looking to take 3 points when possible.

Even if there were 4 tries and they were all converted you're still looking for 5 penalties to be slotted on top.

I'm going to stay away from the under/over bet.

LeeroyJones

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Jesus I think they are terrible odds for 1/2p to score all of his kicks, I know he has been on fire but still....

Even a conversion out on the touchline by itself could realistically be considered no more than a 1.50 shot....

I'd imagine so long as the game is somewhat even he'll be taking a shot from near the halfway also. No guarantees at all.

LeeroyJones

Found a nice one. If someone in the know could confirm to me how often JOC goes for drop-goals when he wears 10.

If the likelihood is as low as I think I'm going to have a little bet on Sexton scoring more drop goals than JOC @ 4/1

GiftofGab

LeeroyJones wrote: »

Found a nice one. If someone in the know could confirm to me how often JOC goes for drop-goals when he wears 10.

If the likelihood is as low as I think I'm going to have a little bet on Sexton scoring more drop goals than JOC @ 4/1

I've been to alot of Rebel games this season and he hasn't taken a single drop goal from what I've seen.

So what happens if there are no drop goal? Do you get a refund?

GiftofGab

LeeroyJones wrote: »

I'd imagine so long as the game is somewhat even he'll be taking a shot from near the halfway also. No guarantees at all.

Agreed. Stupid bet that I didn't think through. Don't know why I went for it.

sydthebeat

LeeroyJones wrote: »

Found a nice one. If someone in the know could confirm to me how often JOC goes for drop-goals when he wears 10.

If the likelihood is as low as I think I'm going to have a little bet on Sexton scoring more drop goals than JOC @ 4/1

That seems ridiculous odds in basically a flip of so coin

Podge_irl

sydthebeat wrote: »

That seems ridiculous odds in basically a flip of so coin

Most likely neither score a drop goal though.

P_1

Podge_irl wrote: »

Most likely neither score a drop goal though.

Yeah, I'd imagine 'no drop goal' is fairly slim odds tbh

LeeroyJones

GiftofGab wrote: »

I've been to alot of Rebel games this season and he hasn't taken a single drop goal from what I've seen.

So what happens if there are no drop goal? Do you get a refund?

sydthebeat wrote: »

That seems ridiculous odds in basically a flip of so coin

Didn't look at it fully. Those odds are accompanied by a Draw also @ 3/10 and JOC is 6/1.

Still though, I can see Sexton taking on a drop-goal at some point. The only drop-goal I've seen JOC score was a manky one against the Barbarians. Obviously I've seen Sexton play a LOT more than JOC though.

I won't be remortgaging the house for this bet but I think I'll sacrifice my coffee today and put 3eu on it.

Buer

Croft to score first try at a generous 20/1.

Lions to win by 6-10 points 9/2.

duckysauce

1/2 coin Motm 9/1

Poc motm 20/1

sydthebeat

my bets

palu first try scorer for australia @ 13 / 1

folau first try scorer and australia +3 @ 17 / 1

long shots but i think the odds are generous

Rightwing

sydthebeat wrote: »

my bets

palu first try scorer for australia @ 13 / 1

folau first try scorer and australia +3 @ 17 / 1

long shots but i think the odds are generous

I think they are a complete waste of money, they're the ones the bookies make the cash on.

sydthebeat

Rightwing wrote: »

I think they are a complete waste of money, they're the ones the bookies make the cash on.

Fair enough, thats why their long shots.

Like I say, I think the odds are generous thats why I've laid on them.

Oh and the bookies make money when the long shots come in, not the short odds

Rightwing

sydthebeat wrote: »

Fair enough, thats why their long shots.

Like I say, I think the odds are generous thats why I've laid on them.

Oh and the bookies make money when the long shots come in, not the short odds

That's cause they just don't come in

Good luck with them though, i'm trying to decide on a bet, think I'll do a GAA one this week.

Buer

sydthebeat wrote: »

Oh and the bookies make money when the long shots come in, not the short odds

Very true. I've never seen the bookies celebrating so much as when the cameras cut to them track side after this year's national when Auroras Encore came in at something like 60/1.

A better with a good knowledge (like Syd) can identify a good bet that has long odds. They're still long shots but there's a lot more chance with an educated guess.

Personally, if you're going to actually come out in the black overall, you need to be very cautious and dull. The only thing I'd bet on would be straight match betting (handicaps are generally coin toss stuff) if I was serious about collecting. I'd never go for more than a double. So many people fall down getting greedy thinking they can go from 2/1 to 4/1 if they make their double a treble.

If I was betting properly, I wouldn't touch tomorrow's game, to be honest. As it stands, I'm putting down a few quid for fun on the 6-10 margin and Croft for try scorer.

sydthebeat

For example with long odds that are good...

Farrell, mako and hibbard are all 33/1 to be first try scorers.... Awj and poc are 50/1.

Now these are all incredibly unlikely to happen, but personally id rather put money on the guys who are longer odds AND on the pitch

Judgement Day

sydthebeat wrote: »

For example with long odds that are good...

Farrell, mako and hibbard are all 33/1 to be first try scorers.... Awj and poc are 50/1.

Now these are all incredibly unlikely to happen, but personally id rather put money on the guys who are longer odds AND on the pitch

POC and Jamie Heaslip as first try scorers at 50/1 and 25/1 respectively look fun and if one of them doesn't manage it, with PP you get your money if when BOD gets a try.

CoDy1

PP enhanced special: The Lions to win by 1-5 points and George North to score a try at anytime @ 20/1. worth a fiver..

Hype710

Halfpenny to score more than JOC is the only bet getting my attention. Want to be able to enjoy the game first and foremost!

Hype710

As an aside, Ultimate Rugby and Paddy Power are offering 4 to 1 on Lions to win for new mobile customers, max bet of €10.

shrewdness

CoDy1 wrote: »

PP enhanced special: The Lions to win by 1-5 points and George North to score a try at anytime @ 20/1. worth a fiver..

Link? Can't see it.

P_1

OZ/Lions HT/FT at 6/1 looks mighty tempting I have to say

Podge_irl

P_1 wrote: »

OZ/Lions HT/FT at 6/1 looks mighty tempting I have to say

I would be a lot more inclined to go the other way around (and have, though not for anything close to 6/1). The Lions have the benefit of 6 warm up matches and its hard not to see them starting better. Aus will almost definitely come back into it though.

CoDy1

shrewdness wrote: »

Link? Can't see it.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerplay/enhanced-lions-special

shrewdness

CoDy1 wrote: »

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerplay/enhanced-lions-special

Cheers, worth a fiver surely!

PhatPiggins

Rightwing wrote: »

That's cause they just don't come in

Good luck with them though, i'm trying to decide on a bet, think I'll do a GAA one this week.

No you plank it's because everyone bets on the short odds

duckysauce

PhatPiggins wrote: »

No you plank it's because everyone bets on the short odds

lovely

CatFromHue

No bets for me for the Lions, or any of the International games this Summer. I just didn't have any idea of how the games would go so no point in betting really.

sydthebeat

It maybe famous last words, but I think the all blacks are excellent value at evens -20

If the french conceded I'm the first 15 mins, they will just want to go home.