Official Free Money Betting Thread 2012/2013 Mark II Redemption

11-06-2013 12:45pm

tut tut. No after timing!

Post bets before the events or don't post em at all imo.

(means you can't hide losing bets!)

GiftofGab · 11-06-2013 12:50pm

Deleted User wrote: »

tut tut. No after timing!

Post bets before the events or don't post em at all imo.

(means you can't hide losing bets!)

Alright. I meant to post it before but the bookies only had 2 available bets on the market yesterday. I only checked again 2 minutes before the match started and seen that there was more markets open.

Judgement Day · 13-06-2013 3:43pm

New Zealand U20 v Ireland U20 (TG4 17.45 tonight) could be a cracker and NZ looked shaky against Australia before winning by 14-10 last Sunday - the same margin that Ireland beat the Aussies by on the 5th June.

Ireland to win 15/2 is surely worth a punt? It is for me anyway with, possibly, a little insurance bet on NZ by -18.

Judgement Day · 13-06-2013 8:16pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

New Zealand U20 v Ireland U20 (TG4 17.45 tonight) could be a cracker and NZ looked shaky against Australia before winning by 14-10 last Sunday - the same margin that Ireland beat the Aussies by on the 5th June.

Ireland to win 15/2 is surely worth a punt? It is for me anyway with, possibly, a little insurance bet on NZ by -18.

Did neither in the end and was regretting it towards the final ten minutes but t'was not to be Ireland's day. I found another way of losing my money instead - NZ -16.5 in the 1st half. Hickey is no Dan Carter.

P.Walnuts · 13-06-2013 8:19pm

Ireland +21 was really easy money, looked a bit dodgy when we went down to 14 but I could never see us losing b more than 20 points...

I posted the bet on the u20 thread btw, no after timing here!

thomond2006 · 14-06-2013 6:33pm

France won me some money last week, so I feel compelled to back them again! Even with Flaky Freddie who I'm sure will have a mare.

Old Balance: 51 units

3 units on France +16 (evens)
2 units on Ireland -10 (evens)

New Balance: 46 units

trouttrout · 14-06-2013 6:37pm

Going to lump on Heaslip to start the first test at 4/5

Also having a craic on Maitland at 7/1. Interestingly Zebo is shorter odds than the Scot(Kiwi) at 11/2

P.Walnuts · 14-06-2013 6:44pm

trouttrout wrote: »

Going to lump on Heaslip to start the first test at 4/5

Also having a craic on Maitland at 7/1. Interestingly Zebo is shorter odds than the Scot(Kiwi) at 11/2

What site are still doing the starters? PP?

trouttrout · 14-06-2013 6:45pm

P.Walnuts wrote: »

What site are still doing the starters? PP?

888 sports!

P.Walnuts · 14-06-2013 6:48pm

trouttrout wrote: »

888 sports!

Bah not arsed setting upa new account, would of stuck some in my dormant PP acc for the Heaslip bet though. Defo worth a lump, I can only see injury standing in the way

GiftofGab · 15-06-2013 8:36am

Bets for New Zealand vs France:
1st try to be converted @ 1.33: 7.5 units
New Zealand to win (-4.5) @ 1.20: 7.5 units
Under 5.5 tries to be scored @ 1.30: 7.5 units

New Bal: 50.59

GiftofGab · 15-06-2013 10:18am

Bets for 'Tahs vs Lions:
More than 2.5 tries scored in 2nd half @ 1.64: 5 units
One team will win both halves @ 1.16: 7.5 units
Croft to score a try @ 3.3: 7.5 units
Zebo to score a try @ 2: 7.5 units
Lions to score first @ 1.38: 7.5 units
Lions to win (-11.5) @ 1.3: 7,5 units

New Bal: 0.95

GiftofGab · 15-06-2013 1:09pm

GiftofGab wrote: »

Bets for New Zealand vs France:
1st try to be converted @ 1.33: 7.5 units
New Zealand to win (-4.5) @ 1.20: 7.5 units
Under 5.5 tries to be scored @ 1.30: 7.5 units

New Bal: 50.59

GiftofGab wrote: »

Bets for 'Tahs vs Lions:
More than 2.5 tries scored in 2nd half @ 1.64: 5 units
One team will win both halves @ 1.16: 7.5 units
Croft to score a try @ 3.3: 7.5 units
Zebo to score a try @ 2: 7.5 units
Lions to score first @ 1.38: 7.5 units
Lions to win (-11.5) @ 1.3: 7,5 units

New Bal: 0.95

Got 8 out of 9. If Zebo's foot wasn't it touch, it would have been a perfect 9 out 9.

Oh well, after a disastrous week last week where the All Blacks didnt perform as expected, I'm back on top.

New Balance: 101.5

15-06-2013 11:35pm

word of advice - stop putting your whole bank at risk.

Unit per bet should be related to the risk (odds) too to stop you blowing up (going bust).

Easy way to do this is to set a max return of X units. So if you imagine that 10 units is your max return, then the max you can bet on an evens price is 5 units, max on a 10/1 shot is 1 unit etc etc etc

thomond2006 · 16-06-2013 11:22am

thomond2006 wrote: »

France won me some money last week, so I feel compelled to back them again! Even with Flaky Freddie who I'm sure will have a mare.

Old Balance: 51 units

3 units on France +16 (evens)
2 units on Ireland -10 (evens)

New Balance: 46 units

New Balance: 50 units

trouttrout · 16-06-2013 11:24am

thomond2006 wrote: »

New Balance: 50 units

Seems you're a "mug" Thomond :pac:

thomond2006 · 16-06-2013 11:28am

trouttrout wrote: »

Seems you're a "mug" Thomond :pac:

On France, I only lost what I won last week.

trouttrout · 16-06-2013 11:29am

thomond2006 wrote: »

On France, I only lost what I won last week.

What price were they this week? I backed them last week at 8's and I reckon I'll have another go next week. Even with the awful Sant Andre Kidneyesque indecision they're a bit of value

thomond2006 · 16-06-2013 11:35am

trouttrout wrote: »

What price were they this week? I backed them last week at 8's and I reckon I'll have another go next week. Even with the awful Sant Andre Kidneyesque indecision they're a bit of value

I don't know the outright prices, I only looked at the handicap. But since the handicap was lower this week the outright price would have also been lower.

Judgement Day · 16-06-2013 11:42am

I had France to win at 15/2 yesterday as a safety bet with my main bet going on a try by Savea. Who could have predicted that the ABs would click and that France would fail to turn up? If you could predict that PP would be out of business.

thomond2006 · 16-06-2013 11:43am

Judgement Day wrote: »

I had France to win at 15/2 yesterday as a safety bet with my main bet going on a try by Savea. Who could have predicted that the ABs would click and that France would fail to turn up? If you could predict that PP would be out of business.

Michalak at 10 was a good indication. I don't think I'll ever learn.

GiftofGab · 18-06-2013 7:20am

Deleted User wrote: »

word of advice - stop putting your whole bank at risk.

Unit per bet should be related to the risk (odds) too to stop you blowing up (going bust).

Easy way to do this is to set a max return of X units. So if you imagine that 10 units is your max return, then the max you can bet on an evens price is 5 units, max on a 10/1 shot is 1 unit etc etc etc

Ah TBH I only bet for the fun of it. My main purpose is to make the matches more interesting. I'm not in it purely for the money. I didn't invest much and if I go belly up, I can invest more.

Someone told me before that stats have shown that 98% of people who bet eventually come out with a loss. So I'm expecting to come out with a loss in the end.

If Thomand the rugby encyclopedia can only manage to stay evens at year end, then I consider myself doing quite well when I'm evens.

LeeroyJones · 20-06-2013 3:13pm

Where's our money on this weekend, lads?

I'm going for Lions by 1-10 @13/8. I reckon The Lions will win it by a score and I'm giving myself a buffer in case we 'take the points' to take it over the 7 point mark in the last few minutes

thomond2006 · 20-06-2013 3:18pm

I'm staying out of it anyway, I don't follow Super Rugby so I've little idea about how good Australia will be.

GiftofGab · 20-06-2013 4:02pm

I follow Super Rugby and I'm very undecided. I never back againt my own team but if I was to give tips I'm sure you'll get great outside odds on a draw.

My prediction: Its going to be a very tight game decided by the kickers with not many tries scored. Cant see any team scoring more than 2 tries.

Halfpenny is a sensational kicker but JOC has good ad bad kicking days.

Folau to score in 80 mins. The lions seem to be working on the rolling maul + targeting the scrum. So predicting a forward to score a try. Have a look at Croft or Heaslip to score a try in 80 mins.

duckysauce · 20-06-2013 9:58pm

LeeroyJones wrote: »

Where's our money on this weekend, lads?

I'm going for Lions by 1-10 @13/8. I reckon The Lions will win it by a score and I'm giving myself a buffer in case we 'take the points' to take it over the 7 point mark in the last few minutes

Draw 20/1 skybet Lions v Aussies

Nz -18 v France Dan the man is back

Rightwing · 20-06-2013 10:28pm

What about points scored, over 42.5 looks pretty good to me at 5/6.

GiftofGab · 21-06-2013 5:51am

Loads of handy little bets that I'm looking at the moment.

Lions penalty to be first score of the match @ 2.60
First try to be converted @ 1.33
Leigh Halfpenny to covert 100% placed kicks @ 1.83.
Under 4.5 tries to be scored @ 1.46
Folau to score a try @ 3.60
Croft to score a try @ 5.0
Lions to win by 1-12 points 2.37
Lions to score last @ 1.80
Second half highest scoring half @ 1.67
Halfpenny to score more points than JOC @ 1.57
One team will win both halves @ 2.10

P.Walnuts · 21-06-2013 11:42am

GiftofGab wrote: »

Loads of handy little bets that I'm looking at the moment.

Lions penalty to be first score of the match @ 2.60
First try to be converted @ 1.33
Leigh Halfpenny to covert 100% placed kicks @ 1.83.
Under 4.5 tries to be scored @ 1.46
Folau to score a try @ 3.60
Croft to score a try @ 5.0
Lions to win by 1-12 points 2.37
Lions to score last @ 1.80
Second half highest scoring half @ 1.67
Halfpenny to score more points than JOC @ 1.57
One team will win both halves @ 2.10

Jesus I think they are terrible odds for 1/2p to score all of his kicks, I know he has been on fire but still....

Even a conversion out on the touchline by itself could realistically be considered no more than a 1.50 shot....

sydthebeat · 21-06-2013 11:56am

GiftofGab wrote: »

Loads of handy little bets that I'm looking at the moment.

Lions penalty to be first score of the match @ 2.60
First try to be converted @ 1.33
Leigh Halfpenny to covert 100% placed kicks @ 1.83.
Under 4.5 tries to be scored @ 1.46
Folau to score a try @ 3.60
Croft to score a try @ 5.0
Lions to win by 1-12 points 2.37
Lions to score last @ 1.80
Second half highest scoring half @ 1.67
Halfpenny to score more points than JOC @ 1.57
One team will win both halves @ 2.10

i like those three

Official Free Money Betting Thread 2012/2013 Mark II Redemption

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