Official Free Money Betting Thread 2012/2013 Mark II Redemption

CatFromHue · 26-05-2013 1:01am

I took the BaaBaas at -2 the other day, they're at +4 now!!

P_1 · 26-05-2013 1:03am

CatFromHue wrote: »

I took the BaaBaas at -2 the other day, they're at +4 now!!

Haven't seen that kind of line move in a while

CatFromHue · 26-05-2013 2:56pm

Ah well it didn't matter anyway!

preddy · 26-05-2013 5:36pm

Lions betting any early betting value?

Took Hibbert to start first test at 4/5
OZ +1 for the draw 20/1
SOB to start 11/8
Looking at less than 2.5 English players to start the first test at 4/6 - banker?

Rightwing · 26-05-2013 7:06pm

preddy wrote: »

Lions betting any early betting value?

Took Hibbert to start first test at 4/5
OZ +1 for the draw 20/1
SOB to start 11/8
Looking at less than 2.5 English players to start the first test at 4/6 - banker?

Did Gatty say anyone involved in the Prem final won't play in the 1st test?

trouttrout · 26-05-2013 7:26pm

Rightwing wrote: »

Did Gatty say anyone involved in the Prem final won't play in the 1st test?

No

CatFromHue · 26-05-2013 7:34pm

Rightwing wrote: »

Did Gatty say anyone involved in the Prem final won't play in the 1st test?

I don't think they'll play the BaaBaa game. Most of them won't have even had a training session with the Lions yet unlike all the other players who's club season finished on the last day of the club regular season.

thomond2006 · 26-05-2013 7:59pm

preddy wrote: »

Looking at less than 2.5 English players to start the first test at 4/6 - banker?

If you're a believer that politics play a part in the test selection than England will have players involved.

Let's analyse it by position:

Prop: Little chance of an English starter. Vunipola has been brought as an impact type player. Can't see Stevens getting into the 23.

Hooker: Hibbard is in front of Youngs most likely, Youngs would need a great run of form in the provincial matches.

Lock: I think this has a good chance of an English starter in Parling. POC should start but other position is up for grabs IMO.

Backrow: Croft has been in great form for Leicester and offers another lineout option. Potential test player and being a former test player might be in his favour.

Scrumhalf: Gatty has always picked Phillips when he's fit/available, I think Youngs might be number 2.

Flyhalf: I'd be shocked if Sexton didn't start.

Centre: Oooh tough one. If Gatland is happy to play two boshers then Tuilagi will play.

Wing: No English players

Fullback: No English players

You also have to factor in that a few players will get injured before the tests and that will influence selection. I personally wouldn't back less than 2.5 at 4/6 myself.

Edit: As a reference, although it will bear little relevance to the test selection for 2013, here are the number of England players selected in 2009:

1st test: 4 (Mears, Vickery, Croft, Monye)
2nd test: 2 (Shaw, Croft)
3rd test: 6 (Sheridan, Vickery, Shaw, Worsley, Flutey, Monye)

P_1 · 26-05-2013 8:05pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

If you're a believer that politics play a part in the test selection than England will have players involved.

Let's analyse it by position:

Prop: Little chance of an English starter. Vunipola has been brought as an impact type player. Can't see Stevens getting into the 23.
I'm guessing Healy/Jenkins and Jones will get the nod here

Hooker: Hibbard is in front of Youngs most likely, Youngs would need a great run of form in the provincial matches.
Can't see Youngs getting ahead of either Best or Hibbard here

Lock: I think this has a good chance of an English starter in Parling. POC should start but other position is up for grabs IMO.
Potentially, barring injury though I'd imagine POC AWJ will be the 1st choice pairing

Backrow: Croft has been in great form for Leicester and offers another lineout option. Potential test player and being a former test player might be in his favour.
Croft's primarily a 6 and a fit SOB and one of the Welsh lads are presumable ahead of him

Scrumhalf: Gatty has always picked Phillips when he's fit/available, I think Youngs might be number 2.
Agree here

Flyhalf: I'd be shocked if Sexton didn't start.
Likewise

Centre: Oooh tough one. If Gatland is happy to play two boshers then Tuilagi will play.
Do you think BOD won't get the nod?

Wing: No English players

Fullback: No English players

Looks like a decent bet at those odds IMO

Rightwing · 26-05-2013 8:24pm

P_1 wrote: »

Looks like a decent bet at those odds IMO

That's a dreadful bet, in fact 1 of the worst I've ever seen. Far too many variables to consider.

CatFromHue · 26-05-2013 10:22pm

I wouldn't be going anywhere near the players from each country bet myself. It's just too far away and so much could happen both form and injury wise.

Adam Jones may the favourite for TH but Cole wouldn't be far behind, any injury to Jones and Cole is in if you ask me.

preddy · 27-05-2013 11:04am

BOD or Tuilagi is a big question at 13 but i think BOD starts all going well with fitness.
Injuries/lack of form is the only factor that could push English players into the team but at the moment I wouldnt name any.

The fact that Conor Murry has a size advantage over Youngs might push him into the Gat if Philips has an issue.

4/6 is not great odds, think ill hold off on that one.

thomond2006 · 31-05-2013 9:33pm

Old Balance: 50.59 units

2.59 units on Toulon -7

New Balance: 48.00 units

thomond2006 · 02-06-2013 12:16pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Old Balance: 50.59 units

2.59 units on Toulon -7

New Balance: 48.00 units

GiftofGab · 02-06-2013 12:34pm

Thomand can you explain what you mean by units?? How are you calculating them??

thomond2006 · 02-06-2013 12:38pm

GiftofGab wrote: »

Thomand can you explain what you mean by units?? How are you calculating them??

A unit is €1x, 2 units is €2x and so on. It's just a way for me to post my bets here without disclosing the amount of money I'm betting.

02-06-2013 3:35pm

GiftofGab wrote: »

Thomand can you explain what you mean by units?? How are you calculating them??

Bets are often quoted in terms of units.

One person's entire bankroll could be another person's average betsize.

The idea being that by describing how big your bank is in units, and declaring your stake size in units that you can add weight to your belief in bets.

For instance, if I say to you

"I have €25 on Ulster to beat the HC."

That could be 10 times bigger than I usually bet, or even ten times smaller.

Instead, by saying
Bank - 100 units
Bet - 2.5 units on Ulster to beat the HC

You see what confidence I have in the bet.

GiftofGab · 03-06-2013 2:30am

thomond2006 wrote: »

A unit is €1x, 2 units is €2x and so on. It's just a way for me to post my bets here without disclosing the amount of money I'm betting.

Deleted User wrote: »

Bets are often quoted in terms of units.

One person's entire bankroll could be another person's average betsize.

The idea being that by describing how big your bank is in units, and declaring your stake size in units that you can add weight to your belief in bets.

For instance, if I say to you

"I have €25 on Ulster to beat the HC."

That could be 10 times bigger than I usually bet, or even ten times smaller.

Instead, by saying
Bank - 100 units
Bet - 2.5 units on Ulster to beat the HC

You see what confidence I have in the bet.

Nice.....so when Thomand says he is at 50 units does that he he's made a profit of 50% of his original investment this season??

P.Walnuts · 03-06-2013 2:40am

GiftofGab wrote: »

Nice.....so when Thomand says he is at 50 units does that he he's made a profit of 50% of his original investment this season??

No its even simpler than that

A unit its just a value what an individual assigns to his "basic" bet. If you are really confident on a bet, you might bet 2 units....if the bet is a longshot you might bet 0.5 units

So depending on how much you bet a unit it could be €10 or €100, it just depends on the person and usually the size of your bank. Thomand's bank now is 50 units, he started with 50 units, so no profit there.

GiftofGab · 03-06-2013 4:18am

P.Walnuts wrote: »

No its even simpler than that

A unit its just a value what an individual assigns to his "basic" bet. If you are really confident on a bet, you might bet 2 units....if the bet is a longshot you might bet 0.5 units

So depending on how much you bet a unit it could be €10 or €100, it just depends on the person and usually the size of your bank. Thomand's bank now is 50 units, he started with 50 units, so no profit there.

Ok I get you now.

But would it not be a better system for everybody to start off with 0 units regardless of how much your original investment.

Then for example if you bet 10% of your investment and you lose your balance would be -0.1 (or -10.00). That way everybody can see exactly how much in terms of a % you won or lost over a period of a year.

I want to join this unit system but just want all the details before I start posting. I've been placing about around 5 - 10 bets a week on the Super XV so would love to contribute to this thread.

thomond2006 · 03-06-2013 7:51am

GiftofGab wrote: »

Ok I get you now.

But would it not be a better system for everybody to start off with 0 units regardless of how much your original investment.

Then for example if you bet 10% of your investment and you lose your balance would be -0.1 (or -10.00). That way everybody can see exactly how much in terms of a % you won or lost over a period of a year.

I want to join this unit system but just want all the details before I start posting. I've been placing about around 5 - 10 bets a week on the Super XV so would love to contribute to this thread.

I started out with 50 units, so that's €50x in my account.

If I bet 2 units (€2x) and lose, that goes down to 48 units or €48x. Incidentally 48 units is what my account holds at the moment, so I'm down 2 units since my initial deposit.

Definitely use this unit system if you're posting, as it means we can follow your weighting on bets.

GiftofGab · 03-06-2013 7:55am

thomond2006 wrote: »

I started out with 50 units, so that's €50x in my account.

If I bet 2 units (€2x) and lose, that goes down to 48 units or €48x.

Definitely use this unit system if you're posting, as it means we can follow your weighting on bets.

So if I start off with for example $20 will I put it as 20 units?

Sorry for the stupid questions.

03-06-2013 9:09am

GiftofGab wrote: »

So if I start off with for example $20 will I put it as 20 units?

Sorry for the stupid questions.

depends what 'unit' you chose.

If you start off with €20 but a 20c bet is your standard bet, you have a 100 unit bank.

Ideally people would use the 100 unit bank as a start off as it's easier to explain to people because it goes straight into a percentage.

"I have 10 units on Racing" = 10 % of my bank roll is on this game (not advised!).

irishbucsfan · 03-06-2013 10:39am

I intende to do this next season. I'm going to start out with 100 units so it looks like I'm twice as good as Thomon!

GiftofGab · 03-06-2013 11:48am

Ok guys, 100 units is the investment

Well I've be betting for a while. So if 100 units is the investment, I'm now at 91.7 units.

I'll keep you posted.

Judgement Day · 04-06-2013 11:18pm

Western Force vs British & Irish Lions - the only bet worth a damn is the Lions to Win to Nil at 17/1. Surely worth 5 or 10 Euros?

CIARAN_BOYLE · 04-06-2013 11:51pm

Judgement Day wrote: »

Western Force vs British & Irish Lions - the only bet worth a damn is the Lions to Win to Nil at 17/1. Surely worth 5 or 10 Euros?

i put a couple of units on western force +43 (evens) earlier on in the week and followed it up with the same amount on B&I Lions -35 (evens) earlier today

Am tempted by Samoa U20 +50 at 10/11 tomorrow

GiftofGab · 05-06-2013 1:25am

Here's my bets for the Lions:

Lions (-38.5) @ 1.90: 7.5 units
George North to score a try @ 1.50: 7.5 units
Tommy Bowe to score a try @ 1.45: 7.5 units
BOD to score a try @ 1.80: 7.5 units
Jamie Heaslip to score a try @ 2.50: 7.5 units
SOB to score a try @ 2.5: 7.5 units
1st try be converted - Yes @ 1.33: 7.5 units
Back to score 1st try @ 1.40: 7.5 units
2nd Half will be highest scoring half @ 1.67: 7.5 units
Lions try will be the 1st score of the game @ 2.37: 7.5 units

10 bets. Obviously I don't expect to win all 10 but I hope my winnings can outweigh the losses with the end result being a profit. I'm banking a a large Lions win.

P.Walnuts · 05-06-2013 2:08am

GiftofGab wrote: »

Here's my bets for the Lions:

Lions (-38.5) @ 1.90: 7.5 units
George North to score a try @ 1.50: 7.5 units
Tommy Bowe to score a try @ 1.45: 7.5 units
BOD to score a try @ 1.80: 7.5 units
Jamie Heaslip to score a try @ 2.50: 7.5 units
SOB to score a try @ 2.5: 7.5 units
1st try be converted - Yes @ 1.33: 7.5 units
Back to score 1st try @ 1.40: 7.5 units
2nd Half will be highest scoring half @ 1.67: 7.5 units
Lions try will be the 1st score of the game @ 2.37: 7.5 units

10 bets. Obviously I don't expect to win all 10 but I hope my winnings can outweigh the losses with the end result being a profit. I'm banking a a large Lions win.

Good luck with your bets!

Just for future reference though, 7.5 units is a very big unit stake per bet, if you happen to have a bad weekend with those kind of unit stakes you bank could suffer very badly indeed!

GiftofGab · 05-06-2013 2:35am

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Good luck with your bets!

Just for future reference though, 7.5 units is a very big unit stake per bet, if you happen to have a bad weekend with those kind of unit stakes you bank could suffer very badly indeed!

Well it's 7.5% of my overall investment.

I'm doubtfull of my try scorer bets. The rest I think should be ok. I'll let you know how I get on tomorrow.

Official Free Money Betting Thread 2012/2013 Mark II Redemption

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