The Football Tips Thread v3

Corkbah

anyone think oldham are good value tomorrow ?? 12/5

Home to brentford !!

Oldham have lost a number of games in the league (I think last 4 or 5) .... but managed a win in the cup against Notts Forest.

draw is 12/5 and brentford are 11/10.

Stats point to Brentford win (in the past 5 meetings between the teams oldham scored 8 times and Brentford scored 11times) ...Oldham was won 2, lost 4 and there was one draw !

Brentford have won 2 and drawn 3 in their last 5 games.

Double with MK Dons who are 1/2 to win at home to Bury !!

applehunter

Man. Utd. look value to beat Liverpool on Sunday.

A general 10/11 shot.

I was thinking 4/7 would have been the price so have to get involved.

Derby 3/1 away to Brighton was the other one that stood out. Derby are one of the form sides in the division and Brighton don't score enough for me.

Joekers

Stoke double chance @ 5/6 against Chelsea tomorrow interest anyone ?

rambojon

barca -1 this weekend at odd against is 1 i like...is being heavily punted at the moment.. cannot be ignored given there scoring power at the moment...

rambojon

is that jokers...

Joekers

rambojon wrote: »

is that jokers...

......

applehunter

Joekers wrote: »

Stoke double chance @ 5/6 against Chelsea tomorrow interest anyone ?

I don't like backing Stoke at odds on. If there was some 4's around they would be some value.

Chelsea have a good record against them too.

No bet for me.

Ciaran_B

applehunter wrote: »

I don't like backing Stoke at odds on. If there was some 4's around they would be some value.

Chelsea have a good record against them too.

No bet for me.

Same here. Chelsea are the one side that Stokes tactics don't really work against and after a couple of bad results I can see Chelsea being well up for this. If Ba starts I'll be on them.

Austria!

Joekers wrote: »

Stoke double chance @ 5/6 against Chelsea tomorrow interest anyone ?

I backed the draw at 3.75 (no longer available) already and now that Stoke have gone to 4.5 I'm backing that too. Why Stoke's odds would lengthen after Chelsea lose 2-0 in midweek beats me.

Be advised, it's better value to back the win and the draw separately than taking the double chance.

Edit: bet365 have the draw at 3.5 and stoke winning at 4.5. That's implied odds of 51% or a price of 1.97. You put 56% (3.5/(3.5+4.5)) of your total stake on the 3.5 and 44% (4.5/(3.5+4.5)) of it on the 4.5 to give you the same profit for either outcome

byronbay2

Joekers wrote: »

Stoke double chance @ 5/6 against Chelsea tomorrow interest anyone ?

Yeah, definitely. Have made a good few quid on this in the last couple of months, although looked likely to lose last time against Southampton until late equaliser - albeit with 10 men. Stoke unbeaten at home since February and an under-rated team imo. Chelsea lost 2 of last 3, goalkeeper looks dodgy to me and I always like to lay teams on Saturday that have played on Wednesday night. I know Stoke's unbeaten home record will have to go at some stage but there is no way on earth that Chelsea should be odds-on shots to do it.

BTW, if you back Stoke and The Draw on Betfair, you get a substantially better price than 5/6 (1.86), even with the 5% BF deduction. It works out (last time I looked) at 1.92, which is just over 10/11.

ConorCBS

byronbay2 wrote: »

Yeah, definitely. Have made a good few quid on this in the last couple of months, although looked likely to lose last time against Southampton until late equaliser - albeit with 10 men. Stoke unbeaten at home since February and an under-rated team imo. Chelsea lost 2 of last 3, goalkeeper looks dodgy to me and I always like to lay teams on Saturday that have played on Wednesday night. I know Stoke's unbeaten home record will have to go at some stage but there is no way on earth that Chelsea should be odds-on shots to do it.

BTW, if you back Stoke and The Draw on Betfair, you get a substantially better price than 5/6 (1.86), even with the 5% BF deduction. It works out (last time I looked) at 1.92, which is just over 10/11.

Cech is rated as 50/50 for tomorrow, so he may play, he has been back training already.

byronbay2

Austria! wrote: »

I backed the draw at 3.75 (no longer available) already and now that Stoke have gone to 4.5 I'm backing that too. Why Stoke's odds would lengthen after Chelsea lose 2-0 in midweek beats me.

Be advised, it's better value to back the win and the draw separately than taking the double chance.

That's some nice punting right there - better than evens (2.04) on Stoke + 1, I tip my hat to you. Whatever happens, you've got good value!
I have noticed that Stoke sometimes drift in the couple of days before a home match, most hilariously against Liverpool at Christmas. I was telling all my friends what a horrible price The Pool were @ 11/8, 3 days before the match - imagine my surprise (and delight) when they were backed in to a best-price 11/10 by kick-off! Still, as every punter worth his salt knows, Liverpool are the most under-priced (over-rated) team every week in the PL!

Austria!

byronbay2 wrote: »

Still, as every punter worth his salt knows, Liverpool are the most under-priced (over-rated) team every week in the PL!

Season predictions from Sporting Index

According to this, and this is very reliable, Liverpool have matched their pricing pretty well once the bad start to the season is excluded. So, form week 5 or so, they haven't been undervalued at all, generally. That Stoke match was a profitable exception, and I think they're overvalued for Sunday as well.

Liverpool are 7 points better off than from the same fixtures last year. I wouldn't be so quick to lay them.

byronbay2

Austria! wrote: »

I wouldn't be so quick to lay them.

Now you listen to me, Sunshine, and you listen good. I've got 5 more posts than you and I will always have 5 more posts than you, so you'd better respect my authoritaaaay! Repeat after me: Liverpool are the most over-rated team in the PL, there is no Brendan Rodgers revolution, they will not end the season in a European position.

Smithwicks Man

byronbay2 wrote: »

Now you listen to me, Sunshine, and you listen good. I've got 5 more posts than you and I will always have 5 more posts than you, so you'd better respect my authoritaaaay! Repeat after me: Liverpool are the most over-rated team in the PL, there is no Brendan Rodgers revolution, they will not end the season in a European position.

Bingo......

United to win @ 10/11 - €110 stake (Big Stake)
RVP 1st Scorer @ 7/2 (PaddyPower: Money Back if it's a draw) €50 (Medium-Big)

tip74

Injuries and suspensions:
Norwich City v Newcastle Utd
Norwich City: Holt (18/4 f) (doubtful), Morison (19/1 f), Whittaker (9/1 d), Surman (4/0 m), Ruddy (13/0 g)
Newcastle Utd: Shola Ameobi (14/1 f), R. Taylor (1/0 d), S. Taylor (11/0 d), Ben Arfa (13/3 m), Gosling (0/0 m), Simpson (16/0 d), Vuckic (0/0 m)
pick X2

Middlesbrough v Watford FC
Middlesbrough: Bikey, Hines, Friend, Haroun, Ledesma, Halliday (all doubtful), McEachran (probably out), Emnes, Arca, Carayol, Main
Watford FC: Hoban, Neuton (both doubtful), Hogg, Hall
pick X2

Milton Keynes Dons v Bury FC
Milton Keynes Dons: Otsemobor (doubtful)
Bury FC: Jones, Hewitt (both doubtful), Bishop, Healy, John-Lewis, Picken, Lockwood
pick 1

Évian Thonon Gaillard v Stade Brestois
Évian Thonon Gaillard: Mensah (6/0 d), Mongongu (12/0 d), Khelifa (11/6 f), Rabiu (16/1 m), Koné (13/0 m), Lacour (11/0 m), Dja Djedje (19/1 d), M'Madi (2/0 f)
Stade Brestois: Ba (1/0 f), Baysse (18/2 d), Alphonse (0/0 f), Culma (5/0 m), Martial (12/0 d), Sissoko (19/0 m), Kantari (17/0 d), Chafni (18/1 m), Traoré (8/0 d), Coulibaly (4/0 d), Ayité (12/2 f)
pick 1

AJ Auxerre v SM Caen
AJ Auxerre: Hengbart (18/0 d), Kapo (13/5 f), Léon (10/0 g), Calvet (1/0 d), Segbéfia (11/0 m), Coulibaly (13/0 d), Ramos (12/0 d), Haller (6/0 f), Ebanega (6/0 d), Boly (11/1 d)
SM Caen: Kebano (9/1 m), Moulin (11/1 f), Leca (3/0 d), Lazarevic (0/0 d), M’Bone (2/0 m), Nangis (1/1 f), Traore (7/0 f), Kyung-Jung (0/0 f) (newcomer)
pick X2

kerosene

i have backed oxford today @ 3/1, solely down to bradfords midweek cup success. Lower league teams generally seem to struggle in their league when they are on a successful cup run.

Its hardly scientific but i stuck them on my accum this week with
spurs 20/23
villa southampton btts
stoke chelsea 1st goal after 27 mins.

stingerro

tip74 wrote: »

Injuries and suspensions:
Norwich City v Newcastle Utd
Norwich City: Holt (18/4 f) (doubtful), Morison (19/1 f), Whittaker (9/1 d), Surman (4/0 m), Ruddy (13/0 g)
Newcastle Utd: Shola Ameobi (14/1 f), R. Taylor (1/0 d), S. Taylor (11/0 d), Ben Arfa (13/3 m), Gosling (0/0 m), Simpson (16/0 d), Vuckic (0/0 m)
pick X2

Love your work, but at the moment you should also include missings because of African Nations Cup. If you add Cheikh Tiote to list of missing players for Newcastle X2 bet isn't so obvious anymore.

mailburner

odds too good on united and spurs for me
Not even considering qpr getting a result out of this

20 @ 5/2 pp


4 to win 76 on (pp)

manu
manc dnb
stoke chels unders
spurs
brom dnb

manual_man

Ciaran_B wrote: »

Same here. Chelsea are the one side that Stokes tactics don't really work against and after a couple of bad results I can see Chelsea being well up for this. If Ba starts I'll be on them.

yeah i think Ba could be the difference. I could see him causing problems for the two man-monsters Shawcross and Huth. may wait for lineups before lineing up any bets

stiffler123

Taking Southampton today at 15/8. Southampton have gotten some good results lately and Villa have been a shambles. Also a large bet on Spurs at 3/4.

Patsy fyre

Half afraid to back Spurs with the Harry factor. Wonder will it have much of an impact, might wait until the teams to decide

skydish79

PP special for new phone customers

3/1 United to beat Liverpool max €50 bet

http://blog.paddypower.com/2013/01/12/dial-a-bet/#comment-31798

tinodz

skydish79 wrote: »

PP special for new phone customers

3/1 United to beat Liverpool max €50 bet

http://blog.paddypower.com/2013/01/12/dial-a-bet/#comment-31798

This means I have to interact with humans?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

manual_man

think i'm gonna take suarez and rvp both to score 9/2 on skybet. really like that bet. next best odds i could find is 4.25/1 (combined odds) with boyles, for anyone who doesn't have a sky account.

gonna take a small punt on suarez wincast 7/1 too (william hills), don't really feel too confident on that one, but 7/1 is too nice a price to ignore, anything can happen in these games

Courtesy Flush

Luis Suarez to score Anytime at 9/5 . This guy has made me a good few quid this season !

deadeye187

QPR v SPURS...draw

EVERTON v SWANSEA...draw

STOKE v CHELSEA...(stoke draw no bet)

bet 5e ret of 150e

gamble i know, but i like it!

Hulk Hands

Austria! wrote: »

I backed the draw at 3.75 (no longer available) already and now that Stoke have gone to 4.5 I'm backing that too. Why Stoke's odds would lengthen after Chelsea lose 2-0 in midweek beats me.

Be advised, it's better value to back the win and the draw separately than taking the double chance.

Edit: bet365 have the draw at 3.5 and stoke winning at 4.5. That's implied odds of 51% or a price of 1.97. You put 56% (3.5/(3.5+4.5)) of your total stake on the 3.5 and 44% (4.5/(3.5+4.5)) of it on the 4.5 to give you the same profit for either outcome

Would you not just lay Chelsea and get an even better price?

Austria! wrote: »

Season predictions from Sporting Index

According to this, and this is very reliable, Liverpool have matched their pricing pretty well once the bad start to the season is excluded. So, form week 5 or so, they haven't been undervalued at all, generally. That Stoke match was a profitable exception, and I think they're overvalued for Sunday as well.

Liverpool are 7 points better off than from the same fixtures last year. I wouldn't be so quick to lay them.

What??? It's common knowledge that Liverpool have been way underpriced in loads of their games this year. 4/5 against Arsenal, 8/15 against Stoke, 8/15 against Newcastle etc. Ridiculous prices. They're a ridiculous price sunday also, and United are way too big to win. How do you explain that United were 4/6 and 8/11 against Arsenal and Spurs at home respectively, yet can be got at 19/20 against a inferior Liverpool side? And 1/3 against a Stoke side on Liverpool's level. Recent history is against you also. 10/3 is horrible value on Liverpool

Fowler87

All over Lambert anytime @ 11/5 on PP. Serious price for a player starting to hit form against a woeful Villa defence

Patsy fyre

Fowler87 wrote: »

All over Lambert anytime @ 11/5 on PP. Serious price for a player starting to hit form against a woeful Villa defence

He's 7/2 FGS. All 8 of his goals this season have been the first for Southamton and has scored in 3 of the last 4 away games.