Euro 2012 Betting

Tigerandahalf

Spain are now 5/2 on PP website.

DB74

Went into shop there - 4/1 gone since 10:55

Warper

DB74 wrote: »

Went into shop there - 4/1 gone since 10:55

Jesus they didnt have it for long, i was in there about that time too

De Dannan

Netherlands 7/1 on Totesport

Van Persie top competition scorer is 11/1

ft9

De Dannan wrote: »

Netherlands 7/1 on Totesport

Van Persie top competition scorer is 11/1

I think these will be my 2 bets for the tournament. I was originally going to go with ze Germans, but the value seems to be with the Dutch.

They reached the last WC final and it took extra time for one of the greatest national sides in my lifetime to beat them. AFAIK there squad has not changed significantly, someone may be able to provide more info on this?

Also RVP is the form striker atm. These 2 bets look like a no brainer.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Robbie Keane to be Ireland's to goalscorer @ 3.75 surely a great bet?

Juwwi

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Robbie Keane to be Ireland's to goalscorer @ 3.75 surely a great bet?

Paddy power had him at 4/1 today in the shops as one of their power plays.

might be worth checking if its still there tomorrow.

Formation

Genuinely think the winner will come from spain, germany or holland with italy as an outside chance.

Dont see any other team having a hope in hell and at the prices combined with a money back offer there is a good bet to be had along with spain to top their group.

markc91

After doing my few bets for the Euros might aswell share them:

Klass Jan Huntelaar Top Scorer 18/1 €10
Ireland + England both to Qualify from their Groups 7/1 €10
Germany to win/ Muller top scorer 66/1 €5
Lowest Scoring Group-Group C 3/1 €10
Top Irish Scorer-Robbie Keane 7/2 €25

Gonna do €50 on Germany when I find out the best odds/money back special...

Any Opinions???

Formation

Lowest scoring group c at 3/1 looks like great value.

why are the odds on keane so big?

Formation

I have been thinking about the keane bet in an attempt to price it up.

I think it is the most likely that Ireland score exactly 2 goals at the euros. In that case to win, depending on powers rules, robbie keane must score and no other irish player must score a goal.

now the price is not looking anywhere near as good.

consider Longs form and Keanes form and it gets worse.

basically you are now looking at this bet as it is what it will come down to a lot of the time against the teams in their group.

robbie keane to score a penalty & no other irish player to score a goal.


needless to say i wont be betting on it but it might give you something to ponder.

inforfun

ft9 wrote: »

I think these will be my 2 bets for the tournament. I was originally going to go with ze Germans, but the value seems to be with the Dutch.

They reached the last WC final and it took extra time for one of the greatest national sides in my lifetime to beat them. AFAIK there squad has not changed significantly, someone may be able to provide more info on this?

Also RVP is the form striker atm. These 2 bets look like a no brainer.

Before the WC i had a look at the possible route to the final for Holland and i really had a good feeling about it. All went as i predicted with the match vs brazil as a decider whether or not they would make the final.
Unfortunately, i was not betting in those days as we all know what happened.
All of their opponents in the WC, Holland had a healthy H2H record.

This time around i am not confident at all.
Defence has been the part where they always have been vulnerable. Since WC2010 Van Bronckhorst isnt playing anymore of course so left back is where they will be exploited.
Add to that now that Matthijssen got injured vs Bulgaria and if he doesnt make it, his replacement will most likely be Bouma. Not exactly making me all warm and fuzzy.

Next 2 friendlies Holland will play will make it more clear what will happen with RvP. Against Bulgaria he was playing in a trio (Sneijder, VdV) behind Huntelaar. He scored Hollands only goal but he doesnt look happy.
Also VdV will probably lose out to Robben so RvP will have to play in that trio withh 2 of the most egocentric players in world football today.
He will probably have another bad tournament as a result of it.

Van Marwijk doesnt have the balls to do the obvious thing, leave Sneijder out. Didnt play much this season and when he played he was crap.
RvP up front, trio of VdV, Robben and Affelay behind him would make RvP a big candidate for top scorer.
Will not happen though.
Again Holland will play with 2 holding midfielders for sure with that defence leaving it impossible to play both Huntelaar and RvP up front.

As for the chance to become champions, Holland H2H record vs Germany and certainly Portugal is so bad i am considering putting money on Holland not to get out of the group @2.5.

batistuta9

will holland not be going with a 4-2-3-1 as you say, with RVP playing wide in the 3 & hunelaar centrally

roryc

So far I have the following, will be doing a few more small top goalscorer bets on Russian strikers and a few others.

BetVictor (money back if Spain win)
£40 on Holland at 13/2
£4 on Russia at 25's
£6 on Italy at 14's

Stan James
£10 on RVP + Holland @ 25's
£5 on Huntelaar + Holland @ 50's
£6 on Holland @ 7's

£10 on Spain at 7/2 with a mate

The value is definitely with Holland so far, if they win I should do well. I think I'll have €10 on France with Paddies @ 12's, that'll be it for outrights. Will break even if Spain or Italy win and do my stones if its Germany.

inforfun

batistuta9 wrote: »

will holland not be going with a 4-2-3-1 as you say, with RVP playing wide in the 3 & hunelaar centrally

4-2-3-1 will indeed be the formation.

Holland's problem is they have too many players for the 3-1 part that would make the first 11 for most other countries. So ideally you would have a 4-1-3-2, Huntelaar and RvP being the "2".

But they have to few really good players for the last 4, need extra security.

I hope they will play 2 up front but i know they will not. In that case i hope Huntelaar is dropped to the bench. You can not have the best player you have in the squad playing out of his position.
But i fear it will be RvP wide.
Which makes him less obvious for being top goal scorer at the Euro's.

roryc

inforfun wrote: »

4-2-3-1 will indeed be the formation.

Holland's problem is they have too many players for the 3-1 part that would make the first 11 for most other countries. So ideally you would have a 4-1-3-2, Huntelaar and RvP being the "2".

But they have to few really good players for the last 4, need extra security.

I hope they will play 2 up front but i know they will not. In that case i hope Huntelaar is dropped to the bench. You can not have the best player you have in the squad playing out of his position.
But i fear it will be RvP wide.
Which makes him less obvious for being top goal scorer at the Euro's.

Good analysis, but I'm confused as to what has changed since the qualifiers? Granted they were playing weaker teams but Huntelaar got 12 goals and was top goalscorer, not to mention scoring in each friendly against Turkey, England and both games against Austria.

I've backed both RVP and Huntelaar to be top GS, I think you may be right about RVP playing out wide.

inforfun

Not much changed since the qualifiers. Only Pieters, left back, is out injured.

But, as you said yourself, they played weaker teams, which allowed them to play with only 1 DM. Partly because De Jong was not called up for about 6 months after the Ben Arfa incident. Holland played quite a few of their qualifiers 4-1-4-1 with VdV as a kind of DM
Irrc Van Persie also missed a few qualifiers. That is how Huntelaar came to his 12 goals.

How Soon Is Now

Starting to regret putting money on Huntelaar so if this is the case.

Feck.

DB74

Robbie Keane currently 7/2 to be Ireland's top goalscorer at the EUROs (BlueSquare & Corals)

A tenner at that price would return €11.25 if there was a 4-way tie and €9.00 if there was a 5-way tie

DB74

inforfun wrote: »

Not much changed since the qualifiers. Only Pieters, left back, is out injured.

But, as you said yourself, they played weaker teams, which allowed them to play with only 1 DM. Partly because De Jong was not called up for about 6 months after the Ben Arfa incident. Holland played quite a few of their qualifiers 4-1-4-1 with VdV as a kind of DM
Irrc Van Persie also missed a few qualifiers. That is how Huntelaar came to his 12 goals.

Managers do not change formations or personnel willy-nilly, and especially international managers when going into tournaments like the WC or EC. Also they tend to favour players that have played in their system/team already. In the the last 4 Dutch qualifiers, the midfield and forwards were exactly the same in all 4 matches, apart from Sneijder taking the place of VDV

I will be amazed if this system is not kept for the finals

Huntelaar will start and Robben will be on the bench, at least for the 1st 2 games

inforfun

angerfist2009 wrote: »

Starting to regret putting money on Huntelaar so if this is the case.

Feck.

I could be wrong. he might play and do it.

But apart from last season, Huntelaar ha always been a guy who scores a hat trick when you are 2 or 3-0 up already. And that is not going to happen during this Euro's

batistuta9

this is what van marwijk said a few weeks ago

Van Marwijk unsure whether Van Persie and Huntelaar will both start at Euro 2012

By Livio Caferoglu | Goal.com – Mon, May 7, 2012 5:20 PM EDT

Email
RELATED CONTENT

Van Marwijk unsure whether Van Persie and Huntelaar will both start at Euro 2012

Netherlands coach Bert van Marwijk has suggested that he will not pair up Robin van Persie and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar at Euro 2012.

Both the Arsenal forward and the Schalke hitman have been scintillating in front of goal this season, but they each have a tendency to play the lone striker role for their respective clubs makes playing them together something of a risk.

Though the former Feyenoord and Borussia Dortmund trainer did not question their capabilities of playing together, he did admit that he is still considering his options ahead of the summer's showpiece in Poland and Ukraine.

"Of course Huntelaar and Van Persie can play together, but I'm also happy that Wesley Sneijder is fit again and Arjen Robben is doing great things at Bayern Munich," Van Marwijk told Voetbal International.

"However, I'm not sure if [Huntelaar and Van Persie] will play together at the Euros. Robin is an all-round attacker, but he showed he is also a killer in the box. Klaas-Jan is a goal-getter and is always getting better with the squad. I believe I have chosen the squad which I can have the most success with."

Netherlands have been paired with Germany, Denmark and Portugal in Group B.

link

goodolegill

For anyone who has put money on Gomez for top goal scorer, as in euro 2008 - I think klose will be the main man. Gomez failed then and his performances in the big games ala champions league finals mean loews gonna go with the tried and trusted. Even in qualifying klose very rarely played second fiddle to Gomez when fit.

DB74

Had a look at some of the Top [insert club] Goalscorer markets and one that stands out is No Goalscorer @ 8/1 with William Hill in the Top Man City market.

At the moment the best odds are

11/8 Balotelli (1 goal from 7 caps)
5/2 David Silva (15 goals from 55 caps)
4/1 Samir Nasri (3 goals from 29 caps)
8/1 No Goalscorer
40/1 James Milner
66/1 Nigel de Jong
100/1 Gael Clichy
100/1 Joleon Lescott

Balotelli is not guaranteed to start for Italy, who tend to score very few goals anyway while Nasri has an awful strike-rate at International level to be quoted at 4/1

The only worry is Silva who actually has a decent enough strike rate of 15 from 55 but there has to be a question mark over whether he will be first choice, assuming that both Iniesta and Xavi are fit to start

madma

DB74 wrote: »

Had a look at some of the Top [insert club] Goalscorer markets and one that stands out is No Goalscorer @ 8/1 with William Hill in the Top Man City market.

At the moment the best odds are

11/8 Balotelli (1 goal from 7 caps)
5/2 David Silva (15 goals from 55 caps)
4/1 Samir Nasri (3 goals from 29 caps)
8/1 No Goalscorer
40/1 James Milner
66/1 Nigel de Jong
100/1 Gael Clichy
100/1 Joleon Lescott

Balotelli is not guaranteed to start for Italy, who tend to score very few goals anyway while Nasri has an awful strike-rate at International level to be quoted at 4/1

The only worry is Silva who actually has a decent enough strike rate of 15 from 55 but there has to be a question mark over whether he will be first choice, assuming that both Iniesta and Xavi are fit to start

that looks a very decent bet..

lescott 100/1 worth a couple of euro

FlawedGenius

DB74 wrote: »

Had a look at some of the Top [insert club] Goalscorer markets and one that stands out is No Goalscorer @ 8/1 with William Hill in the Top Man City market.

At the moment the best odds are

11/8 Balotelli (1 goal from 7 caps)
5/2 David Silva (15 goals from 55 caps)
4/1 Samir Nasri (3 goals from 29 caps)
8/1 No Goalscorer
40/1 James Milner
66/1 Nigel de Jong
100/1 Gael Clichy
100/1 Joleon Lescott

Balotelli is not guaranteed to start for Italy, who tend to score very few goals anyway while Nasri has an awful strike-rate at International level to be quoted at 4/1

The only worry is Silva who actually has a decent enough strike rate of 15 from 55 but there has to be a question mark over whether he will be first choice, assuming that both Iniesta and Xavi are fit to start

Can you link this bet please? Cant find it on the site.

inforfun

Last nights friendly vs Slovakia most likely showed Hollands 4 attacking players for the Euros:

Robben - Sneijder - Affelay
Van Persie

Affelay being the best man on the pitch.

Now if only a proper left back was born before the tournament started.

DB74

FlawedGenius wrote: »

Can you link this bet please? Cant find it on the site.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/top-man-city-goalscorer

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/3024006/Euro-2012---Top-Club-Goalscorer.html

The 8/1 is gone, it is now 6/1 with Hills

Ladbrokes and Stan James are still 7/1 though

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/Football/European-ChampionshipFootball/European-Championship-t210005449# - click on Player Markets and it's there

http://www.stanjames.com/betting/index.asp?sl=slm&gi=2&sltc=356301.2&slm=10903806.2

DB74

There's markets out there for a lot of the well-known teams

Man Utd
Man City
Chelsea
Arsenal
Liverpool
Spurs
Bayern Munich
Real Madrid
Barcelona

You can get 40/1 with Paddy Power for no Bayern Munich goalscorer if you want to take on Gomez, Robben, Muller, Ribery, Olic, Schweinsteiger, Kroos, Lahm, Boateng, & Tymoschuk!

DB74

I was looking at a couple more off-the-beaten-track markets last night and 2 bets stood out

Biggest Winning Margin
(Skybet only pricing this up)

http://www.skybet.com/football/euro-2012/event/14027321

5/4: 4 goals
13/8: < 4 goals
7/2: 5 goals
12/1: 6 goals
35/1: 7 goals +

Selection - < 4 goals @ 13/8

IMO the < 4 goals should certainly be favourite (even odds-on) and the 13/8 is a very generous price

In the last world cup there were 64 games and only 3 had a winning margin of 4 goals or more, one of which was Portugal beating North Korea 7-0 and there's no North Korea here. The worry is that it was Germany who won both the other matches 4-0 (against Australia and Argentina)

In EURO 2008 there was no match with a winning margin of more than 3 goals. There were 2 x 4-1 results and 2 x 3-0 results but none with a 4+ margin

Also the way international football has gone, the vast majority of teams are happy to go 2 goals up and take their foot off the pedal to conserve energy, especially in a 4-week long tournament where fitness can play such a vital role in prolonging a teams stay.


Team to concede fewest goals
(Paddy Power & William Hills only)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/team-to-concede-least-goals

6/1: Spain
9/1: England, France, Italy
10/1: Russia
11/1: Holland
12/1: Germany, Portugal
14/1: Croatia, Czech, Poland, Ukraine
18/1: Greece, Sweden
33/1: Ireland
40/1: Denmark

Selection: Ireland @ 33/1 (Hills) - Paddy is only 18/1

33/1!!!!!!

If there's one thing we all know about Ireland, it's that they don't concede goals. We don't score too many either but we sure as hell don't concede. And we are in the group with the 2 biggest 1-0 merchants in World Football (Spain & Italy)

It is very possible that we will be knocked out of the tournament with 1-0 defeats to both Spain & Italy and a 0-0 draw with Croatia. In fact 2 x 0-0 draws wouldn't be a major surprise where this Irish team is concerned.

It's a 33/1 shot so I wouldn't be steaming in but with some of the market favs likely to have 4 or 5 or even 6 games that just means more opportunities to concede while Ireland will possibly only have 3 matches (4 at the max IMO)