Euro 2012 Betting

Backstreet Moyes

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

An accumulator on group winners Spain, France, Russia and Germany pays 20/1 with PP.
If you fancy a bit of reward a similar accumulator on Croatia, Greece, Germany and France pays 250/1.
If only 1 leg fails PP will refund bet.
Given that Germany and France are favourites to top group that has a lot of potential.

Is that 20/1 a special going to go to pp in awhile and back that. Fancy a few bets think they are great prices.

Spain 3/4 against Italy.
Germany 5/6 v Portugal.
France 6/4 v England.
Russia 13/10 v Poland.
France 10/11 v Sweeden.
Ireland 16/5 v Italy.

De Dannan

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

I think England will do better than people are making out. For the first time in ages they have a class goalkeeper. They are solid at the back and if Hodgson sets them up right they wont concede much. They also have pace in Young and Walcott and Wellbeck looks in good form. I expect them to get out of group at least. All depends how good France are. Are they overrated. Their midfield is meant to be weak and I think Mvilla picked up an injury. Nasri, Rivery wont do much defending.

This tournament is the lowest expectations ever I can recall for England, even their media and fans dont rate them
this might actually work in their favour, as in they dont have much to lose

razor425

robbie1977 wrote: »

England to finish last in their group is 5/1

and England to get 0 points is 40/1 (not impossible).

Afflay top Barcelona scorer 12/1.

all with stan james.

Anyone got an opinion on the England bets?
My thinking is its their worst squad of players they have brought
to a championship and it could all go badly wrong for them.

I can't see either of those England bets coming in, however I think they may struggle to qualify. I feel Ukraine will finsih bottom with 0 or possibly 1 point and England will finish 3rd with either 2 or 4 points. This leaves Sweden 2nd with 5 points and France top with 7. The reason I see this happening is Sweden play Ukraine first, so a win here and a draw against England in the second game will leave them on 4 and leave England needing a win against Ukraine in their final game assuming they lose to France in the opener. Sweden will then be up against most likely a 2nd string French side in their last game and should do enough to get a point. So even if england beat Ukraine in the final game they still wont qualify. I think England will concede very little but also score very little - probably 0 goals v France, 1 at best v Sweden and maybe 2 or 3 v Ukraine when Rooney is back.

DB74

One of my favourite football sites, www.zonalmarking.net, has started a series of articles on the upcoming EURO championships with a good in-depth look at each of the teams.

Poland & Russia are done already. Looking forward to the others in the week to come.

http://www.zonalmarking.net/category/euro-2012/

CrabieCrawford

Anyone know who'll be starting up top for Spain. Lot of people thinking Llorente, but he hasn't played at all in the last 3 friendlies. Is this just because hes had a long season?

If i thought negredo was a possible starter 14/1 to be spains top scorer is fairly good value.

Another few are: Portugal to finish bottom of the group @ 11/4
Italy bottom of the group @ 5/1
Holland/France final @ 50/1

Radonman

After much Debating these are my picks for the top goalscorer
Value bet
Ibrahimovic @ 50/1 with PP - I reckon he could score enough in the group games to win this plus 9 of their 10 qualifying games provided three or more goals therefore there are goals in that team, plus he is on peno's
Long Shot
Ozil @ 66/1 Lad / PP - Gremany have scored 3 or more in 8 of thier 10 qualifers and Ozil got 5, now i know he only got 6 in the whole Spanish season but with their open attacking style, why not
Main Bet
Benzema @ 14/1 Lads (because of their special offer posted earlier) - Enough said about him already:D:D

I'm going to put a small wager on Ukraine no wins @ 6/4 with PP - There build up has been brutal and i just cant see them getting a win in group D

gnella

KNOCKOUT GAMES TO GO TO PENALTIES
there wil be 7 k/o games in the tourney,4 qrt/finals, 2 s/f and the final.
29% of k/o games since 1980 have gone to penalties(avg. 2.03 games per tournament)
2008-2 games
2004-2 games
2000-1 game (france scored peno with 2 mins left in semi final & also scored winner of final in 2nd half of ET)
this suggests that 2 games is prob the most sensible bet if there is value,i think that it has a chance of going 2+ as teams these days are much more wary of losing k/o games.

RECOMMENDED BETS
1. two or more games 3.00 betvictor(this is one i am taking)
2. exactly two games 4.00 paddy power
3. three or more games 8.50 paddy power

gnella

TEAM TO CONCEDE MOST GOALS
there might be some value in markets like this as they are overlooked because most punters want to bet on goals scored markets.
looking back to past tourneys
2008- turkey conceded 7,they went to semi-final
2004- bulgaria(9)group stage,conceded 5 in opening game v sweden.portugal were next worst(7) and they went to final.
2000- yugoslavia(13) qrt final
teams that qualify from group stages do well here.
sweden conceded 11 in qualifying,9 of those versus top 4 in group.
group D (sweden group)is touted as the second most likely high scoring group
portugal conceded 12 in qualifying,8 versus top 4 in group.
group B (portugal group)includes germany and holland who top scored in qualifying.
portugal were in a 5 team group,sweden in a 6 team including san marino who scored zero so effectively a 5 team group.

RECOMMENDED BETS
1.portugal 19.00 paddy power
2.sweden 12.00 skybet

gnella

TEAM TO CONCEDE THE LEAST GOALS
the teams that are fav to win the tournament are also at the top of the betting here which seems to make litle sense as the will probably play more games and therefore have more chance of conceding.
looking back the years it seems that teams who concede least are eliminated early or are a top team who are defensively brilliant.
group A+C look most likely to produce the winner of this market.
group A-greece conceded 5 in qualifying,2 against top 4 in group.
group C-italy conceded 2 in qualifying,2 against top 4 in group.

RECOMMENDED BETS
1.italy 10.00 paddy power
2.greece 19.00 paddy power

gnella

OUTRIGHT WINNER
ok,this will be where most disagreements come as we will all be pitching opinions from mostly similiar shortlists.
i will break down my pick as simply as i can.
firstly,czech,greece,poland,russia,denmark,crotia, ireland,ukraine,sweden and england(leaving myself open to abuse here) ARE JUST NOT GOOD ENOUGH AND WILL BE FOUND WANTING AT SOME STAGE
this leaves 6
SPAIN
GERMANY
HOLLAND
PORTUGAL
FRANCE
ITALY
holland and portugal concede too many goals and this will be their downfall,4 left.
spain have had a very successful few campaigns but are beginning to look tired as a squad and missing puyol and villa wont help,3 left.
italian football is being rocked by scandal at the moment and it has involved people in the international set-up,are there more players/officials going to be implicated in all this?enough reason for a no-bet if stuff comes out late tournament,2 left.

germany and france,i could give loads of reasons to pick either,they both have a great history in the comp,germany went 10/10 in qualifying scoring 34 goals and deserve to be in the top 2 in the betting but ultimately for me these tournaments are won by teams who improve as it goes on and i reckon germany could be on the wane and bayern providing 7 or 8 of the starting 11 could work against them.
france look to have a squad with lots of experience who are not too old,around 16 of the squad will have played in at least 2 qualifying games which gives loads of options on the bench and most importantly their top players are coming into the tourny on a high(nasri,malouda,benzema)

RECOMMENDED BET
1. france 13.00 various

Hulk Hands

inforfun wrote: »

Holland - Denmark H2H

Holland - Germany H2H

Holland - Portugal H2H

Said it earlier in this thread, those are not great H2H stats.
Holland will have done well when they get out of that group, dont even want to think about winning the group.

Thats past history however. It's relaevant but there's more important factors at this stage, such as quality of players and form.

The main reason i've chosen Holland is that Germany are ridiculously underpriced, both to win this group and to win the tournament. 3/1 joint favourites to win the tournament is one of the most laughable prices this year yet people still keep putting them up, mainly because the tipsters are football fans rather than people who understand gambling. It's leaving other teams overpriced, namely Spain to win the tournament at 3's and Holland to win this group.

Regardless of history, 2/1 Holland is too big for this group. Portugal are hit and miss and Denmark might be outclassed. Germany are big dangers but the value your getting at 2's more than makes up for that

DB74

gnella wrote: »

france 13.00 various

Best price now 11/1 (Corals). General price is 10/1 now unfortunately.

Tigerandahalf

Will Mexes and Kosielney be France's central defenders?

bookie basher

Lloris
Debuchy Rami Mexès Evra
Diarra
Cabaye Malouda
Nasri Benzema Ribery

is the france team that started tonight and will start against england, mvilla will replace diarra when he recovers from injury, alot of attacking firepower in that team, should win group d without too much trouble

Tigerandahalf

Im not sure if Id fancy their defending though. Mexes is an ordinary defender. Who is Rami? The midfield is reliant on Diarra/Mvilla. It could be overrun.

IncognitoMan

France 1st and England 2nd in group D @ 4/1 in paddypower

Well was 4/1 a few days ago when i placed the bet

gnella

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Im not sure if Id fancy their defending though. Mexes is an ordinary defender. Who is Rami? The midfield is reliant on Diarra/Mvilla. It could be overrun.

mexes played in 5 qualifiers and scored a goal,i dont think milan are in the habit of employing ordinary defenders.
rami is a hard bastard who plays for valencia and played in 9/10 qualifers in a defence that only conceded 4 goals.
there are a lot of countries who would love their midfield to be reliant on diarra/m'vila.there will not be too many capable of overrunning these guys.
m'vila is not a big name as he did not play champions league but i guarantee he will be linked with a lot of big clubs in the next few weeks,he is already being pursued by arsenal who need a midfield enforcer and see him as one of the best out there

De Dannan

England special on Will Hill

Gerrard to play every minute of every group match
NO 13/8
surely he will be subbed at some stage, even for 5 mins

DB74

De Dannan wrote: »

England special on Will Hill

Gerrard to play every minute of every group match
NO 13/8
surely he will be subbed at some stage, even for 5 mins

Nice spot

FlawedGenius

Lads who usually starts up top for Russia?? Torn between backing Pobrevniak Kershakov and Pav. Defo think a top scorer could come from that group even Baros(who was top scorer in 04) but Ive heard he could be injured for Russia game Friday.

gnella

FlawedGenius wrote: »

Lads who usually starts up top for Russia?? Torn between backing Pobrevniak Kershakov and Pav. Defo think a top scorer could come from that group even Baros(who was top scorer in 04) but Ive heard he could be injured for Russia game Friday.

talk is that kerzhakov will be no.1,had a great season with zenit scoring 23 goals and should take penos

mailburner

gnella wrote: »

TEAM TO CONCEDE MOST GOALS

RECOMMENDED BETS
1.portugal 19.00 paddy power
2.sweden 12.00 skybet

love that price on portugal myself and for greece to concede
the least amount of goals especially in a group with russia poland
and the czech rep


for me though france at 6/4 to beat england is my banker

holland outright
france outright
holland/hunt
hunt top gs
that what im going for so far


also gonna do a small bet on portugal to finish last in their group at 11/4
its a toss up between them and denmark surely
and england to do the same when i find out what bookie
goes 5s on that one
could see england getting a couple of draws and a loss in their group


ashley young as mentioned earlier in the thread a good price for top
eng scorer also

Lasagna Diarra

Tigerandahalf wrote: »

Im not sure if Id fancy their defending though. Mexes is an ordinary defender. Who is Rami? The midfield is reliant on Diarra/Mvilla. It could be overrun.

You've got to be trolling, "who is Rami?" He's the defender who played for the team that won the French league and now plays for the team that finished 3rd in La Liga. M'vila is a great midfielder and many countries would love to have a midfield of M'vila - Cabaye - Malouda.

eh i dunno

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/facebook-enhanced-specials/enhanced-euro-2012-special?ev_oc_grp_ids=702164 Germany 6/1 for the euros

Juwwi

eh i dunno wrote: »

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/facebook-enhanced-specials/enhanced-euro-2012-special?ev_oc_grp_ids=702164 Germany 6/1 for the euros

Sh1t it opened up ok but they finished it wile l was logging in.

was it 25 max bet?

eh i dunno

robbie1977 wrote: »

Sh1t it opened up ok but they finished it wile l was logging in.

was it 25 max bet?

No just €13. Was going to put 20 on at 3/1 so happy enough with 13 on at 6/1

MattHelders

eh i dunno wrote: »

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/facebook-enhanced-specials/enhanced-euro-2012-special?ev_oc_grp_ids=702164 Germany 6/1 for the euros

Cheers pal.

I saw this post on my phone so I legged it up to my computer to make the bet. Thank God I made it in time. That is fantastic value

Nobbynacks

holland outright
france outright
holland/hunt
hunt top gs
that what im going for so far

Seems RVP could be taking the front role now so would be wary of Hunt

Shane St.

Mods forgive me but I think this merits a link..... Excellent analysis on all teams for the Euros... I was thinking of doing Huntelaar for top goalscorer but he won't play now..

http://www.zonalmarking.net/

Brilliant... will have to read up now and I'll post my tips up

mailburner

Nobbynacks wrote: »

Seems RVP could be taking the front role now so would be wary of Hunt

thanks for that
saved me a few quid

didnt realise he wouldnt be playing against denmark