beef price tracker

boggerman1

So Fran mcnulty is on the news saying Larry is throwing a few cents from Monday. No doubt the ifa will claim credit for this after there stunt yesterday and today

wrangler

boggerman1 wrote: »

So Fran mcnulty is on the news saying Larry is throwing a few cents from Monday. No doubt the ifa will claim credit for this after there stunt yesterday and today

I'd be disappointed if they disband for 5 or 10c/kg like mc nulty claimed they would

_Brian

wrangler wrote: »

I'd be disappointed if they disband for 5 or 10c/kg like mc nulty claimed they would

They’re waiting for the text from Larry as to whether they stay or claim victory, it’s very complicated.

ruwithme

Jjameson wrote: »

Would there be a chance of a group deal on a kevin the Carrot?

Russell sprout is the sought after this Christmas.

wrangler

ruwithme wrote: »

Russell sprout is the sought after this Christmas.

Looking at the support, I doubt they'll do it again, I wonder is the seven lorry loads of tractors still available in Galway

Fine Day

Has anyone wondered why IFA have started to show an interest towards the beef farmer.
Election time of course. They are like politicians we only see them when they want a vote.
Bit suspicious also with Larry Goodman promising a 5 cent increase. Its going take a great president to get the faith back into the IFA is my opinion as its in bad place at present.

wrangler

Theheff wrote: »

Has anyone wondered why IFA have started to show an interest towards the beef farmer.
Election time of course. They are like politicians we only see them when they want a vote.
Bit suspicious also with Larry Goodman promising a 5 cent increase. Its going take a great president to get the faith back into the IFA is my opinion as its in bad place at present.

I've been talking to a lot of beef farmers and none were happy with what was done to the beef trade, they knew at the time that we were getting as good as was going across Europe so you wouldn't know, If Ifa ended up with 40000 proper members they might be a lot better off.

wrangler

Theheff wrote: »

Has anyone wondered why IFA have started to show an interest towards the beef farmer.
Election time of course. They are like politicians we only see them when they want a vote.
Bit suspicious also with Larry Goodman promising a 5 cent increase. Its going take a great president to get the faith back into the IFA is my opinion as its in bad place at present.

Voting is nearly over, can't be that, to me they were dragged into a problem not of their own making that there was no hope of success.
Processors will be delighted to see groups squabbling among themselves

Bass Reeves

IFA has backed itself into a corner now. If we do not see a rise in price of 20+c/kg by there actions it will seem as if they were jumping on the band wagon to claim the credit.

What is really coming across now is that BP is starting to be a force and IFA is reacting to there actions. What is frightening for IFA is that it seems unable to activate ordinary members like BP is doing.

Another fact is coming to the fore. We can now see clearly that processors would have continued to drop beef prices from mid July on if BP had not acted. Irish price dropping was pulling the who UK market down. Without BP's actions where would the price have bottomed out 3.2/kg or lower. This would have dragged UK beef prices down to where we are now.

If you look back when the second strike was in place Dutch bull beef rose from 3/kg to 3.4/kg. At present it is at 3.08/kg according to the FJ's international beef prices. Polish beef prices rose at the time as well and are back to 3/kg now as well. If the beef plan protests had not taken place we would be lucky to be hitting 3.5/kg now as processors would have kept a lid on prices just like they are doing now.

downtown3858

If the protests hadn’t of taken place beef would be well tighten up now and any man with cattle to sell would have the power over the factories. In my view beef would be 3.70-3.80 at min them protests hadn’t of taken place at its worst! It destroyed the store trade for men selling stores also. A lot of farmers couldn’t get cattle killed so had no money or no space or no confidence to buy cattle. Protest was a disaster all round and anyone thinking otherwise is deluded.

Bass Reeves

downtown3858 wrote: »

If the protests hadn’t of taken place beef would be well tighten up now and any man with cattle to sell would have the power over the factories. In my view beef would be 3.70-3.80 at min them protests hadn’t of taken place at its worst! It destroyed the store trade for men selling stores also. A lot of farmers couldn’t get cattle killed so had no money or no space or no confidence to buy cattle. Protest was a disaster all round and anyone thinking otherwise is deluded.

The only time we have negotiating power is when the kill falls below 30k/week. Factories have show over the years that prices fall 5-10c/week. While you may get a 10c/kg hike once I have only once seen in 15 years prices rise strongly where we got a 40-50c/kg rise over 4 months. Cattle kill at the time was at 25-26k/week for a continious period. When kill rose prices dropped 40c in a few weeks.

If we had hit 3.2/kg or lower in August/September there is no way we be looking at any better than 3.5/kg at present. Larger finishers only finish what there sheds can hold.

bogman_bass

If the past few months have thought us anything it’s that aiming to finish bang on 30 months is a risky game.
If you have cattle ready at 28 it’s gives you flexibility to market as you want and if a shock to the market comes you have a bit of breathing space.
Lads complain about the power the 30 month rule gives the factories but it’s entirely within your power to take that away from the factory.

Goeasy123

bogman_bass wrote: »

If the past few months have thought us anything it’s that aiming to finish bang on 30 months is a risky game.
If you have cattle ready at 28 it’s gives you flexibility to market as you want and if a shock to the market comes you have a bit of breathing space.
Lads complain about the power the 30 month rule gives the factories but it’s entirely within your power to take that away from the factory.

Couldn't agree more. With carcass weight limitations if people are doing a decent job with live weight gain then they should be targeting 24-28 months no bother. 20-24 months with heifers should be the norm. If someone wants a store period it should really be the 2nd winter & target off grass in June July. Realise genetics have an effect here too but if some AA or HE in the mix then age shouldn't be a factor.

Cavanjack

Well any quotes for next week yet? Larry surely has it up near €3.80!!!

amacca

Goeasy123 wrote: »

Couldn't agree more. With carcass weight limitations if people are doing a decent job with live weight gain then they should be targeting 24-28 months no bother. 20-24 months with heifers should be the norm. If someone wants a store period it should really be the 2nd winter & target off grass in June July. Realise genetics have an effect here too but if some AA or HE in the mix then age shouldn't be a factor.

With calf to beef using bought in dairy crosses on milk replacer I have not found that to be true at all especially if they are bought anyway late (say may/june).....unless you are absolutely pumping them from birth with concentrates and then its simply not worth it

that 30 month rule is a **** as far as I'm concerned and needs to go, theres **** all reason for it and i could finish extensively off grass with a minimum of concentrates if it was got rid of and it should be got rid of for numerous reasons.

bogman_bass

Jjameson wrote: »

With a meal bag? And imported soya and maizemeal.

No. It’s handy done. Good silage needed though. I’m killing mine at 27 months on average on less then 100kg meal. I’m not doing anything fancy

wrangler

bogman_bass wrote: »

No. It’s handy done. Good silage needed though. I’m killing mine at 27 months on average on less then 100kg meal. I’m not doing anything fancy

Yea. was talking to a farmer yesterday selling bucket reared heifers that were never indoors since calves, outwintered on rape last year and meal for last eight weeks. exceptional land though and plenty of it, his bullocks are in and get another 9 mths, exceptional silage too

Panch18

downtown3858 wrote: »

If the protests hadn’t of taken place beef would be well tighten up now and any man with cattle to sell would have the power over the factories. In my view beef would be 3.70-3.80 at min them protests hadn’t of taken place at its worst! It destroyed the store trade for men selling stores also. A lot of farmers couldn’t get cattle killed so had no money or no space or no confidence to buy cattle. Protest was a disaster all round and anyone thinking otherwise is deluded.

Well said

Those protests have cost farmers millions this autumn.

And the worrying thing is that they can’t even see it, they can’t even see the damage they did. They firmly believe that they did something good and achieved something

And that’s worrying. Because it’s one thing making a massive mistake and learning from it but to make a massive mistake and think you actually did good??!!! Well then that just shows that you are dealing with stupidity and the problem with stupidity is there is no accounting for it.

Bass Reeves

bogman_bass wrote: »

If the past few months have thought us anything it’s that aiming to finish bang on 30 months is a risky game.
If you have cattle ready at 28 it’s gives you flexibility to market as you want and if a shock to the market comes you have a bit of breathing space.
Lads complain about the power the 30 month rule gives the factories but it’s entirely within your power to take that away from the factory.

It is all relative BB. It depends on the animal and when you buy them. Your land type and the length of your winter.. I think too may equate weight with profit. To finish cattle early you need them at grass early ( as in early March). One advantage of finishing early is it allows you more flexability with stores. However good silage costs money and time as well. Lads get caught up as well in shortening the winter by letting cattle outside after all grass is grazed and cattle eat regrowths. Then you get no spring growth.

However if you are buying stores into a long term (12 months+ system) you will end up with cattle that need every day of the 30 months to finish. As well most dairy beef cattle are born in February/March if you have numbers and you split into too many bunches it may reduce your ability to grow grass. Having said that a friend of mine finished nearly 300 heifers this year off grass. He used about 1.5 ton of ration. His is all old pasture but he graze's at low covers. His silage would be only average as most is taken from Glas meadows.

Bass Reeves

Jjameson wrote: »

How would that work out last year on good dry land Bass! But all this is inconsequential in any case given that there is no scientific basis for cutting the price of an animal at the stroke of midnight on its 30 month birthday. And what makes it interesting is Lidl’s admission that it’s all coming to them at the same rate. I It’s become a market control measure by processors on farmers.

TBH I agree 30 months is an artificial age used to control beef prices. It no longer applies since BSE was eradicated. However if it is increases farmers will find weights and weight limits put in place. I have absolutely no issue with that but lads with suckler bred cattle would be really hit hard.

I much prefer to see the NSAI in charge of auditing and calibrating grading machines. It amazing when you have European standards across calibration, weighting and measuring in every industry there is no set standard for electronic for clasification in the meat industry. This was not a real issue when meat was sold in carcass form. However now that meat is processed down to pack level in the meat factories there is a huge incentive for them to lower cattle grades especially as you are dependent on visual grading to catch them out.

bogman_bass

Jjameson wrote: »

How would that work out last year on good dry land Bass! But all this is inconsequential in any case given that there is no scientific basis for cutting the price of an animal at the stroke of midnight on its 30 month birthday. And what makes it interesting is Lidl’s admission that it’s all coming to them at the same rate. I It’s become a market control measure by processors on farmers.

I agree but when you can’t take some control back within your own farm gate why not do it?

There is far too much “that’s the way we always did” it in beef farming

patsy_mccabe

amacca wrote: »

With calf to beef using bought in dairy crosses on milk replacer I have not found that to be true at all especially if they are bought anyway late (say may/june).....unless you are absolutely pumping them from birth with concentrates and then its simply not worth it

that 30 month rule is a **** as far as I'm concerned and needs to go, theres **** all reason for it and i could finish extensively off grass with a minimum of concentrates if it was got rid of and it should be got rid of for numerous reasons.

Do you not realise that if the 30 month rule was abolished, everyone else would do excactly just that. There would be a mad glut of cattle coming off grass at the end of the year and no factory willing to take them. It was like this years ago, but people seem to have poor memories.

Be careful what you wish for. No matter what you do, you will create a knock on effect somewhere else.

Bass Reeves

Jjameson wrote: »

I’ve done heifers on grass, heifers on meal and grass, on silage and meal,heifers on ad lib meal, cows on grass, cows on meal and grass,
Bullocks on grass, on grass and meal, on ad lib meal, on silage and meal and each have their merits but the biggest problem to getting any kind of twist is that I have to compete against farmers to buy but have to sell to a Unregulated cartel.
And I’m a humble man with 3 houses 2 cars and 3 mistresses to keep. I don’t know how a high flier can get by.

You can manage with the fast women as long as you have no slow horses.

However I agree with the rest it is immaterial the system at present someone needs to lose serious money on an animal for you to make a margin. What most forget is since the horse meat crisis every place in the system where there was a margin has been taken out of the system.

Pre the horse meat crisis I could make money on over 24 month bulls from June to August even into early September. under 24 months bull pre/post Christmas every year. Beef prices were at 4/kg the week before Christmas, 4.2 for January. Back up to 4/kg for late April hitting 4.4/kg for mid/late June. They then hovered around 4-4.2 for July and August before they trended downwards to a base of around 3.8/kg for the autumn. In general it was +/- 10c/kg like this There was even one year they hit a base of over 4.5/kg.


Now we are 50c/kg off them prices and costs have risen. Ration is now 30-50/ton more, contracting costs 15-20%, plastic, professional charges, etc,etc No matter what you do at present if you raise a calf from 3 weeks to finish they are break even at best. Something has to give. Processors and retailers have colluded to control the market. Lads might give out about BP but at present unless we are willing to get very militant they will continue to to price us out of existence

Bigger finishers complaining about there business must realize everybody needs a decent margin not just them.

Robson99

downtown3858 wrote: »

If the protests hadn’t of taken place beef would be well tighten up now and any man with cattle to sell would have the power over the factories. In my view beef would be 3.70-3.80 at min them protests hadn’t of taken place at its worst! It destroyed the store trade for men selling stores also. A lot of farmers couldn’t get cattle killed so had no money or no space or no confidence to buy cattle. Protest was a disaster all round and anyone thinking otherwise is deluded.

Would you be happy if there was no protest and beef had bottomed out at 3.00 or 3.20 a kilo ?
And do you seriously think it would have jumped up to 3.80 a kg from there...deluded ????

Bass Reeves

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

Do you not realise that if the 30 month rule was abolished, everyone else would do excactly just that. There would be a mad glut of cattle coming off grass at the end of the year and no factory willing to take them. It was like this years ago, but people seem to have poor memories.

Be careful what you wish for. No matter what you do, you will create a knock on effect somewhere else.

The only thing to counter balance that patsy is there would be less pressure on the system in August. lads would be under less pressure to push cattle out from late May to July. I have noticed over the last couple of years that the drop in beef prices is starting in late may no compared to late June 5+ years ago. As we no longer get a sustained peak rising in price in to late June. we are dropping in price off a lower base and that is turning winter finishing into a serious money losing proposition. It is also lowering the margin on early summer finishing. 50c/kg has taken 150-200 euro/head out of farmers pockets right across the system. That is 3-400 million euro/year.

Lads that think we can recover that sort of money from the EU are deluded. On a lad killing 60 cattle at an average weight of 330kgs that is 10K in turnover that he cannot pass back down the line. His SFP might be no more than that.

Take that split between 3 farmers tha produce and rear the calves, the lad who brings them to stores if split 30%/30%/40% its taking 3K out of the calf to weanling man in the dairy system, 3K from the store man and 4K from the finisher and that is on sixty cattle.

Jjjack77

Robson99 wrote: »

Would you be happy if there was no protest and beef had bottomed out at 3.00 or 3.20 a kilo ?
And do you seriously think it would have jumped up to 3.80 a kg from there...deluded ????

Why didn’t the factory’s pull beef price back to 3.00 last spring, it was very hard get cattle killed, but they left the price at 3.75. They could of quoted anything they liked and still being full up of cattle?

Bass Reeves

Jjjack77 wrote: »

Why didn’t the factory’s pull beef price back to 3.00 last spring, it was very hard get cattle killed, but they left the price at 3.75. They could of quoted anything they liked and still being full up of cattle?

What did they do to bulls or do you remember.

Jjjack77

Bass Reeves wrote: »

What did they do to bulls or do you remember.

Killed them where I always kill my cattle for 3.70 r grade and 3.80 u grade, awful lot better than the 3.30 and 3.40 I’m getting now,

Millionaire only not

Bass Reeves wrote: »

IFA has backed itself into a corner now. If we do not see a rise in price of 20+c/kg by there actions it will seem as if they were jumping on the band wagon to claim the credit.

What is really coming across now is that BP is starting to be a force and IFA is reacting to there actions. What is frightening for IFA is that it seems unable to activate ordinary members like BP is doing.

Another fact is coming to the fore. We can now see clearly that processors would have continued to drop beef prices from mid July on if BP had not acted. Irish price dropping was pulling the who UK market down. Without BP's actions where would the price have bottomed out 3.2/kg or lower. This would have dragged UK beef prices down to where we are now.

If you look back when the second strike was in place Dutch bull beef rose from 3/kg to 3.4/kg. At present it is at 3.08/kg according to the FJ's international beef prices. Polish beef prices rose at the time as well and are back to 3/kg now as well. If the beef plan protests had not taken place we would be lucky to be hitting 3.5/kg now as processors would have kept a lid on prices just like they are doing now.

I bet if was investigated they were a high proportion high ranking ifa members gathered from all over the country at the Lidl and Aldi protests !

Millionaire only not

Theheff wrote: »

Has anyone wondered why IFA have started to show an interest towards the beef farmer.
Election time of course. They are like politicians we only see them when they want a vote.
Bit suspicious also with Larry Goodman promising a 5 cent increase. Its going take a great president to get the faith back into the IFA is my opinion as its in bad place at present.

Larry’s 5 cents is an insult ! He’s having some laugh at us holding back the court order on the 2 . They always make more money when prices are bad !
Dealers are the same they mint it in the bad times because moral is down and farmers just take what’s thrown at them !