Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

blackius

Min wrote: »

I was wondering, was going to post that I saw nothing too extreme at the moment.
Colder, yes but nothing to put one in bad humour at the thought of frozen pipes and hands.

sadly,you will be sick of frozen pipes by the time this is done with you.
You're far enough inland and high enough to get the worst of both worlds.

Redsunset

Dare I say that just as Ireland is being covered with the very cold easterly push, the Atlantic attacks from the west and creates an explosive battleground scenario with the great white Siberian army slaughtering all in it wake.:D:D:D

Result,




And of course if it goes belly up there's always this

dermiek

redsunset wrote: »

Dare I say that just as Ireland is being covered with the very cold easterly push, the Atlantic attacks from the west and creates an explosive battleground scenario with the great white Siberian army slaughtering all in it wake.:D:D:D

Result,




And of course if it goes belly up there's always this

1. I hope the battleground is over Galway Bay.

2. If I posted this, I'd be warned for trolling. Must be great to be a mod ..... :rolleyes:

200motels

They are very excited over on net weather about the prospect of an almighty easterly next week, but I think it's way too far out to be sure, the model runs in the morning will tell a lot.

TheMilkyPirate

dermiek wrote: »

2. If I posted this, I'd be warned for trolling. Must be great to be a mod ..... :rolleyes:

Hmm, No. I'm pretty sure you wouldn't.

M.T. Cranium

I have the feeling we will get clarity with tonight's (00z) model runs. The CME event now underway could have the effect of intensifying circulation patterns slightly. Whether that will help the easterly gain traction or push it back into central Europe remains an open question. I could see this solution of a stalled front near the Irish Sea, and days of forecasting headaches to follow. Oh well ... let's see how the 00z models respond.

Our cold spell lasted all of five days and resulted in two inches of snow. Perhaps you can top that at least. It has been pouring rain here all day and I'm waiting for the news in a few minutes to learn more about the effects (too busy to check around on the net), suspect there has been considerable flooding of low-lying areas around this region and very likely severe flooding elsewhere (Puget Sound, inland Fraser valley). I don't have a weather station as such but would estimate 75-125 mms of rain in past twelve hours, it has really been coming down hard all day, and one flash of lightning too.

premiercad

Now a stalled front would be fun!

Sponge Bob

Following the resounding success of the Perpetual Naming Rights for January 2012 Blizzards initiative Sponge Bob is now opening up the allocation of Naming rights for February 2012 Blizzards. Best started at night as weather never sleeps and neither do the hardcore afficionados.

Rules.

*All Naming Rights Must be Claimed By PM to me ...seeing as I have none of yiz on my ignore list that should work. Any claim in a thread posting disqualifies you for the month.
*First come first served, as I process the PMs I will edit this single post so you can all see who has what day.


Date in Feb. Name.

1.
2.
3. Rebels Raging Snowstorm ( Rebelbrowser)
4. Wolfies Last Blizzard or the Wolfienstein Snow Event. Mods to decide exactly what if it comes to pass.
5. The Redsunset Blizzard
6. Del's Feb Blast ( Delw)
7. The Great Grapel (sic) Shower (Beco)
8. Snowpocalypse (or could I perhaps suggest The Nachoral Borne Blizzard?) ( Nacho Libre)
9. Motels buried in snowfest ( 200 Motels) ...hmm whats wrong with '200 Inches of Snow' dude ???
10. The SnowDance Snowfest - in memory of the shoes (Eskimocat) "wore out dancing to bring about this snowfest"!
11.
12. Diamond's Dusty Snow Day (Diamond DUst)
13.
14. LurrrveFlurries (H2UMrsRobinson)
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.

Small Print.

*One Name Per Day, one claim per person. Birthdays are no excuse.
*The Blizzard is named by/after the person who exclusively bagged the START date...even if it goes on for a WHOLE week. All Times are UTC so it must start to snow at a Boards Contest IMT station between 00 and 24 UTC on that day to qualify as a start date.
*Snow must be recorded and shown in an hourly report at a sinlgle Boards Monthly Contest IMT station to trigger a name allocation.
*An 8 Hour Pause in snowfall across all Boards Contest IMT stations, at any stage, reopens naming rights for when it restarts blizzarding if the particular 8 hour period crosses the 00z UTC mark and is therefore deemed by these rules to be a nomenclatural discontinuity event. A pause of less than 8 hours is deemed to be nomenclaturely continous with the effective start date naming rights and will not trigger either a rename or a naming right reset. I trust that is perfectly clear.
*Sponge Bob not allowed to have any snow event named after himself in February 2012.
*You claim a day, if it blizzards you get final choice of name for it no matter what it starts off as.
*Final Entries By PM by Sunday 29th January at midday Z...or when all the slots are full...whichever comes first.
*The 4th is pre allocated as a tribute.
*I will ONLY PM someone if they clash with an already allocated date. Otherwise assume that you PM me and I edit it into this post.
*In the event that there aren't enough rules already you must PM me with new rules by 00UTC on Saturday the 28th of January or I will undertake to behave capriciously and arbitrarily in deciding how to interpret the rules already extant at that moment in time. :cool:

nacho libre

There is three ways this could go:
(1) A weak easterly/south easterly, with most of Ireland staying relatively mild
(2) a potent easterly, due to a link up of the russian and scandi high, with favourable orientation enabling the really cold air over eastern russia westwards, this eventually leading to epic battles between east and west, with the easterly air winning out for at least two weeks- Yes please

(3) it all goes pear shaped. resulting in toys being strewn all over the shop. as well as much hair pulling, and shaking of fists towards the sky


I really hope if this does come off, as most of us want it too, GP is right about the scandi high eventually moving over to Greenland. Since he foresaw the potential for an easterly months ago in his lrf, why wouldn't he be right about this little piece of the equation.

nacho libre

derekon wrote: »

Hi Nacho, not a silly question at all

The closest I could see on the charts was -16oC upper level temps slap bang over Dublin and the east coast at midday on the 30th January 1947

See attached link and key in that date to verify

D

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=1&day=17&year=1947&map=3&hour=12

Thanks Derek. Very useful link.

TheMilkyPirate

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I have the feeling we will get clarity with tonight's (00z) model runs. The CME event now underway could have the effect of intensifying circulation patterns slightly. Whether that will help the easterly gain traction or push it back into central Europe remains an open question. I could see this solution of a stalled front near the Irish Sea, and days of forecasting headaches to follow. Oh well ... let's see how the 00z models respond.

Our cold spell lasted all of five days and resulted in two inches of snow. Perhaps you can top that at least. It has been pouring rain here all day and I'm waiting for the news in a few minutes to learn more about the effects (too busy to check around on the net), suspect there has been considerable flooding of low-lying areas around this region and very likely severe flooding elsewhere (Puget Sound, inland Fraser valley). I don't have a weather station as such but would estimate 75-125 mms of rain in past twelve hours, it has really been coming down hard all day, and one flash of lightning too.

Was surprised by that!

Redsunset

Also I think the forum needs a good fall of snow otherwise the mental state of alot of folks will be shot to pieces:)

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The CME event now underway could have the effect of intensifying circulation patterns slightly. Whether that will help the easterly gain traction or push it back into central Europe remains an open question.

Trust M.T to throw in a wild card with extra topping.:)

cherryghost

18Z has a lot of brushes with some westerly systems, and seems a lot of snowfall as it hits the cold air over Ireland!

nacho libre

i'll tell you what if the best case scenario does come off, there could be some heavy snow falls in eastern england and possibly the east of ireland due to the difference between the sea temps and air temps

but that's just irresponsible ramping on my part:p

delw

nacho libre wrote: »

i'll tell you what if the best case scenario does come off, there could be some heavy snow falls in eastern england and possibly the east of ireland due to the difference between the sea temps and air temps

but that's just irresponsible ramping on my part:p

are you trying to ramp/wind up us east folk nacho ,at the moment looks like battle ground /wrong side of cold IMO

nacho libre

delw wrote: »

are you trying to ramp/wind up us east folk nacho ,at the moment looks like battle ground /wrong side of cold IMO

have faith delw. look at it this way there is more chance of this coming off than Andy Carroll becoming the next Ian Rush. oh wait that's not very reassuring:(

but seriously it could go either way yet. if we get the easterly we may have to endure a few days of cold and dry weather, before the snowgates are opened.

TheMilkyPirate

God only knows what i'm still doing up, Anyway 00z rolling out now let's hope it's a guddin!

TheMilkyPirate

Did somebody order snow?



Lol. Night all.

mickger844posts

GFS 0Z is a fantastic run. Ok the good stuff is in FI but the signs are looking good. Lets see what the ECMWF gives us soon.

Sponge Bob

mickger844posts wrote: »

GFS 0Z is a fantastic run. Ok the good stuff is in FI

The 7th of February no less. Look what the 7th of February 1895 brought with it. :cool:

sunbabe08

oh, exam week is when the snow will come. fantastic

blackius

Good lord,were some of you up at 4am looking at models:D
Relax,the beast is coming,I remain convinced.
It will be a gradual process,you'll notice on day one for instance,the wind is coming up the yard instead of down.
By day 3 or 4 you'll want to be putting more layers on.
By day 6 Gerry Murphy will be on prozac...

For jinx avoidance purposes of course,I'd prefer if the dm2 threads stayed away untill next week

Royal Dub

yeoww, up the yard

hotwhiskey

Once again GFS has pushed back the deep cold coming for another couple of days "Groundhog Day anyone". My own view the GFS has been all over the place lately. ECM is looking more promising this morning for us, but it will be a battle between east and west, myself I'm not getting to excited while some runs have brought the cold to our shores i have a feeling we will be on the wrong side of the fence this time.:rolleyes:

weatherfiend

blackius wrote: »

Good lord,were some of you up at 4am looking at models:D
Relax,the beast is coming,I remain convinced.
It will be a gradual process,you'll notice on day one for instance,the wind is coming up the yard instead of down.
By day 3 or 4 you'll want to be putting more layers on.
By day 6 Gerry Murphy will be on prozac...

For jinx avoidance purposes of course,I'd prefer if the dm2 threads stayed away untill next week

Finding it hard to know which way the wind is blowing at the moment. It's pretty wild here n swirly

Speak Now

This is looking like one of those easterly that we're going to be on the wrong side of hopefully they'll be another couple of bites at the cherry in early Feb.

oterra

I got the feeling MT wasn't too confident on any easterly making our shores.
This senario still seems to be in FI. Any thoughts anyone? Will it stall over uk?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

We need to see what the models do today

New GFS run coming out now, Chill there !

Davaeo09

t|nt|n wrote: »

We need to see what the models do today

New GFS run coming out now, Chill there !

AHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHAHAAAAAAAAA :pac:

The tension is unbearable! :mad:

IF we do get the cold these current models are showing us, what temperatures can we expect? -5? -8? -10? colder???

For allot of people this sort of cold and snow is hassle, i'm just concious of the oil levels in my tank :eek:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Shocking run, need to see wtaht the 12zs do today.

We were hoping for agreement but only 2 our of the big 3 agree now.