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GFS Promises Christmas Heatwave

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    #92
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Lads this thread is now defunct. GFS is not showing a heatwave, on the contrary its showing -4's 850 temps over the country generally for the days immediately before and after Christmas day. Now I don't know how some people on here define a heatwave but...........
    The definition recommended by the World Meteorological Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 Celsius degrees (9 Fahrenheit degrees), the normal period being 1961–1990.

    We might get 2-3 days of the temp being along the lines of the above. Technically not a heatwave but then again I think the thread title did not mean it in the literal sense.


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    #93
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    The definition recommended by the World Meteorological Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 Celsius degrees (9 Fahrenheit degrees), the normal period being 1961–1990.

    We might get 2-3 days of the temp being along the lines of the above. Technically not a heatwave but then again I think the thread title did not mean it in the literal sense.

    You learn something new everyday! Thanks Wolfie.


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    #94
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    The definition recommended by the World Meteorological Organization is when the daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5 Celsius degrees (9 Fahrenheit degrees), the normal period being 1961–1990.
    The average is around c.5.5c so if the temperature hits 10.5c every day for 5 days it is OFFICIALLY a Heatwave. Wooooo Hooooooooooo! Result! :D


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    #95
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    We are staying in this cold (w-nw), mild (sw), cold, mild setup into the early days of 2012.


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    #96
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,509 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    The average is around c.5.5c so if the temperature hits 10.5c every day for 5 days it is OFFICIALLY a Heatwave. Wooooo Hooooooooooo! Result! :D

    Is 5.5 the average or the daily maximim average? ;)


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    #97
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    The average is around c.5.5c so if the temperature hits 10.5c every day for 5 days it is OFFICIALLY a Heatwave. Wooooo Hooooooooooo! Result! :D

    I don't think so. ;)


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    #98
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »
    Is 5.5 the average or the daily maximim average? ;)
    Daily maximum average. It is actually 5.3c because the reference period for a Heatwave outperformance is normally 1961-1990, source for the 5.3c value is MT here

    If we have 5 consecutive days where the Daily Tmax value hits :cool: 10.3c :cool: then we have a Heatwave.

    Bring it on and make Evelyn smile even more.


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    #99
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Do you think my 1cm of snow will stay on the ground until Christmas Day? :p


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    #100
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Daily maximum average. It is actually 5.3c because the reference period for a Heatwave outperformance is normally 1961-1990, source for the 5.3c value is MT here

    If we have 5 consecutive days where the Daily Tmax value hits :cool: 10.3c :cool: then we have a Heatwave.

    Bring it on and make Evelyn smile even more.

    :confused:

    SpongeBob, I think you are misreading the stats! The mean daily maxima ranges between 7c and 9c at this time of year. The actual mean, that is, the average of both max and min, is around 5.5c for mid December.

    Re-read M.T's post for the love of God!


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    #101
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,509 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Daily maximum average. It is actually 5.3c because the reference period for a Heatwave outperformance is normally 1961-1990, source for the 5.3c value is MT here

    If we have 5 consecutive days where the Daily Tmax value hits :cool: 10.3c :cool: then we have a Heatwave.

    Bring it on and make Evelyn smile even more.

    I think the average and the daily maximum average are different though.

    Say average minimum is 0c and average max is 10.6, this would be average is 5.3. Would it have to be five days at 15.6 then to be heatwave???


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    #102
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Gahhhhhh. :D

    It would have to be around 15c , eg

    Source > http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=MTM02

    201112161142857863MTM02_1142223.gif


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    #103
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »
    Would it have to be five days at 15.6 then to be heatwave???

    Nope! A heatwave would imply that there is an unusually intense and prolonged period of heat, literally. 5 days of 15.6c I call more a 'mildwave'. :)


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    #104
    compsys
    Registered Users Posts: 1,042 ✭✭✭compsys


    Heatwave refers to a sustained period of temperatures of around 5c above the average daily max. The average daily max in winter is around 8 degrees which would mean temperatures would have to reach 13c for it to be called a heatwave.


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    #105
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Taking+the+plunge+in+Greystones.+Pic+Una+Campbell.JPG


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    #106
    lolie
    Registered Users Posts: 2,330 ✭✭✭lolie


    Just heard John eagleton on todayfm 12.45 news say 10 degrees on 24-25th, no record breakin weather on the way. Mite be repeated in next few minutes


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    #107
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    lolie wrote: »
    Just heard John eagleton on todayfm 12.45 news say 10 degrees on 24-25th, no record breakin weather on the way. Mite be repeated in next few minutes
    That's a big call when the ECM and GEFS both show temps around 6-8c at best (most likely a degree or two lower) on 24th.


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    #108
    lolie
    Registered Users Posts: 2,330 ✭✭✭lolie


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    That's a big call when the ECM and GEFS both show temps around 6-8c at best (most likely a degree or two lower) on 24th.

    He seemed very sure, just have to wait and see. Could be worth a small punt for a white chrimo


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    #109
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    It's a brave call to make alright this far out. The model consensus seems to have us on borderline (average) territory around Christmas with the PF wavering close to Ireland. Whatever side of it will be under come the time is anybody's guess but 7c to 9c, being the average, would seem a fairly good guess at this point.


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    #110
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    GEFS ensemble for Derry keeping us in this mild, cold, mild, cold setup.
    185440.png


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    #111
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    GEFS ensemble for Derry keeping us in this mild, cold, mild, cold, mild, cold, mild, cold, mild, cold setup.

    You mean, no heatwave? :(


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    #112
    lolie
    Registered Users Posts: 2,330 ✭✭✭lolie


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    You mean, no heatwave? :(

    Dont tell poor sponge bob ;)


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    #113
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Here is how the current ECMWF is looking for midnight on Christmas Eve:

    185441.png

    A fairly consistent WSW'ly between areas of low pressure to our N and high pressure to our S or SW. Looks to be fairly in line with the ensemble chart Wolfe posted up with fairly changeable weather being the overall consensus. Mild to cool and back again and at this early stage it seems to be the luck of the draw as to which one will prevail at Christmas.

    So, SpongeBob's chance of a having a mild/warm Christmas is looking to have a 50% chance at this stage. that is, either it will be or it won't.


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    #114
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Neither a non nor a no! :p


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    #115
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Would prefer a heat wave to the Westerly set up


    Christmas Eve... Same chart as last week, and the week before only different dates.

    airpressure.png
    b%3E:%20viewimage%281%29;


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    #116
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Latest GFS not in favour of a scorcher this Christmas:

    185474.png

    Based on this one run, Sponge Bob's forecast of a warm Xmas is losing ground a little due a tend towards average to cool conditions for the big day:

    185475.png

    Still plenty of room yet for the odds to tilt in favour of a more milder outcome over the following week or so. Don't lose hope just yet SB. :)

    Christmas Tune Countdown:     Christmas Day


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    #117
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,778 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Even the mild week is shortening to about 3 days.:eek:


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    #118
    Wertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,909 ✭✭✭✭Wertz


    Joe Public wrote: »
    Even the mild week is shortening to about 3 days.:eek:

    Which way if you don't mind me asking? earlier or later in the week?


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    #119
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'll put the bikini away again so..:p


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    #120
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Wertz wrote: »
    Which way if you don't mind me asking? earlier or later in the week?
    Early. Hopefully all week and the following week but deffo early. Ignore the banal negativity from the graupel ghouls. :p


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    #121
    gbee
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 ✭✭✭gbee


    Ice Cream Queue Christmas Day outside Sponge Bobs house on December the 25th 2011

    185488.jpg


This discussion has been closed.
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