This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

garyha

Rain today showing very little snow, some sleet showers.

Sponge Bob

Mace still top gust at 65KT in the 11am, finally Belmullet bust 60KT and matched Mace

Min

If the storm later in the week goes south of us which now looks most likely, the set up will bring snow showers from an east/north east direction for a time.

Darwin

Fingers crossed we have dodged a bullet on Thursdays storm. Xcweather was showing mean wind speeds of 50mph across much of the country two days ago.

Pangea

ffarrell7 wrote: »

You are deluding yourself...the 'hills of donegal' rather than mountains. Ring MET Eireann and they will put you straight. I was in Letterkenny last week and there was not a patch of snow in the 'hills' when I was there. The east is generally a colder region away from the milder Atlantic with more extremes when easterly or north-easterly winds arrive. Donegal or other ranges of elevation just do not get the same savage snowfall as the Wicklow uplands...youtube it and you will see for yourself. Th coldest temperatures are also in Wicklow, midlands and occasionally Cavan/Monaghan.

I think someone is getting a bit jealous of the weather in Donegal recently :pac:
I dont know what you are arguing about here, I think you are saying there are no mountains in Donegal. The term mountain is a broad term and the height definition varies. The county is filled with hills ranging from 500-700 metres. Many people would call these mountains. There are plenty of summits to climb. Don't rely on Wikipedia either as half of the summits around here are not on it. Obviously no mountains here match Kerys height.

Even if Met Eireanns forecast said snow on mountains what I was saying in my last post was that the hills here had snow, so it wasn't just confined to Mount Errigal like Sponge Bob said (and seemed so happy about for some reason).

There is a lot more to Donegal than Letterkenny. The hills were covered in snow here for the past week. You must of been up here before the cold air was around. I don't need to ring Met Eireann for a lesson on my local topography either thanks.

As for extreme temperatures Donegal was one of the coldest countys last winter even with that easterly. Killygordan had temperatures of -17 and on the border Castlederg broke the record for coldest temperature in NI with -18.

As for Snowfall Donegal has more snowdays than Wicklow generally and is a lot colder than Wicklow during normal weather. Yous are in the sunny south east after all.

gbee

Pangea wrote: »

As for Snowfall Donegal has more snowdays than Wicklow generally and is a lot colder than Wicklow during normal weather. Yous are in the sunny south east after all.

Maybe he's talking about news coverage, when Sally Gap gets a dusting R117 is constantly circling and a combined Army/Gardaí cordon off the area to prevent people enjoying themselves ...

Harps

I'd say Mt Errigal is comfortably the snowiest mountain in the country, the vast majority of our cold weather comes from the north and NW which always give Errigal & the surrounding mountains a covering but showers always die out before making it east. Fintown probably the snowiest town?

Anyway, 75kt gust at Malin now, strongest so far I think

naughto

is the storm sapose to get worse in the afternoon/evening or has it peaked yet??

NufcNavan

Strong winds and snows showers here in Navan, although it's melting instantly as it hits the ground.

danthefan

ffarrell7 wrote: »

You are deluding yourself...the 'hills of donegal' rather than mountains. Ring MET Eireann and they will put you straight. I was in Letterkenny last week and there was not a patch of snow in the 'hills' when I was there. The east is generally a colder region away from the milder Atlantic with more extremes when easterly or north-easterly winds arrive. Donegal or other ranges of elevation just do not get the same savage snowfall as the Wicklow uplands...youtube it and you will see for yourself. Th coldest temperatures are also in Wicklow, midlands and occasionally Cavan/Monaghan.

I work in and around some of those hills close to Letterkenny. Last week you could have driven 15 mins from the town and you could have found some fairly significant snow.

WolfeIRE

Any chance we could keep this thread to model discussion only, please?

It's hard to follow otherwise.

Animation provides good insight into where that low pressure system is and where the showers are going to hit.
http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Takes 30 secs to a minute to load, depending on ISP

irish1967

MT alluded to a sting in the tail of this (todays) storm. Going by its actual track now today have strongest winds passed or is the back edge stronger ? Does the temp drop after it passes and will precipitation increase or decrease ?

Sponge Bob

Many questions, one simple answer, ( 140000 means 14th at 00:00 hours)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/stormwarning_printable.html

Rockall, issued on Tuesday 13 December 2011 at 0800 UTC
At 130000 UTC, low 57 north 16 west 946 expected 59 north 02 west 949 by 140000 UTC. Winds will reach storm force 10 in the southern quadrant between 100 and 300 miles, later between 250 and 350 miles, from the centre until 132000 UTC. Winds will reach violent storm 11, occasionally hurricane force 12, between 150 and 200 miles from the centre until 131200 UTC. Low 58 north 27 west 966 expected 53 north 22 west 970 by same time. Winds will reach storm force 10 in the southwestern quadrant between 300 and 500 miles, later between 100 and 300 miles from the centre from 131000 UTC, and winds will also reach violent storm force 11 in the southern quadrant between 200 and 300 miles from the centre from 131700 UTC until 140500 UTC.

waterways

irish1967 wrote: »

MT alluded to a sting in the tail of this (todays) storm. Going by its actual track now today have strongest winds passed or is the back edge stronger ?

The sting has hit Buoy M4. :eek:

M4 62093 13 Dec 12:00 42 gust 456
http://www.met.ie/latest/buoy.asp

Su Campu

The Met Éireann aviation chart for 1800 shows again two areas, A and B.

A) Ulster, Connaught and north Leinster (and Scotland)

Generally rain, sleet, graupel and thundery hails showers. Localised moderate to heavy snow showers on mountains. This area is moving southeastwards at 10 knots.

Munster and most of Leinster (and England and northern France)

Generally rain, sleet, graupel and thundery hails showers. Localised moderate snow and sleet showers on hills.

davidsr20

Very bad wind and hail here in Craughwell co Galway all morning,I'm sick of this wind :mad:

Reckless Abandonment

waterways wrote: »

The sting has hit Buoy M4. :eek:

M4 62093 13 Dec 12:00 42 gust 456
http://www.met.ie/latest/buoy.asp

Wouldn't fancy been on a boat in that ... look at the wave height 14.7 m

maw368

Not much wind in Wales but have had thunger, lightning, hail, snow and lots of rain

maw368

What are the models saying for the storms around Thursday, looks like the worst is for France now?

Deep Easterly

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Th coldest temperatures are also in Wicklow, midlands and occasionally Cavan/Monaghan.

Not necessarily true, although the east does get more regular moderate extremes. The coldest temperature last winter for example was -17.5c in Co. Mayo on flat lowlands, in the wesht.

munsterlegend

Interesting that the met eireann have this for tomorrow:

'Rain, sleet and snow will affect Connacht and Munster tomorrow morning, but the rest of the country will be mainly dry for the day. Remaining cold with highest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees and moderate westerly winds.'

is snow only likely on higher ground?

also met office uk still have their warning for the south and midlands of the Uk which was updated at 12 31 today. is this storm still a possibility? it is also on met eireann's extended forecast.

leahyl

munsterlegend wrote: »

Interesting that the met eireann have this for tomorrow:

'Rain, sleet and snow will affect Connacht and Munster tomorrow morning, but the rest of the country will be mainly dry for the day. Remaining cold with highest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees and moderate westerly winds.'

is snow only likely on higher ground?

also met office uk still have their warning for the south and midlands of the Uk which was updated at 12 31 today. is this storm still a possibility? it is also on met eireann's extended forecast.

Usually they'd say it if it was only high ground! OOOOOH i'm excited!!:pac:

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Usually they'd say it if it was only high ground! OOOOOH i'm excited!!:pac:

i will believe it when i see it! much more interesting how the uk met office still think this storm for thursday/friday is still a possibility.

redman

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

Wouldn't fancy been on a boat in that ... look at the wave height 14.7 m

OMG!!:eek:

leahyl

munsterlegend wrote: »

i will believe it when i see it! much more interesting how the uk met office still think this storm for thursday/friday is still a possibility.

That too:pac:

Deep Easterly

munsterlegend wrote: »

Interesting that the met eireann have this for tomorrow:

'Rain, sleet and snow will affect Connacht and Munster tomorrow morning, but the rest of the country will be mainly dry for the day. Remaining cold with highest temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees and moderate westerly winds.'

is snow only likely on higher ground?

I think that forecast is to do with an approaching secondary feature (mentioned yesterday in this thread) that is expected to cross Ireland tomorrow which is expected to bring more generally showery weather to parts of Connacht & Munster, although exact tracking of this feature is no way nailed on yet. I'd say any snow would be more likely on higher ground though intensity induced snow cannot be ruled out on lowlands but in general, a sleety, messy mix away from higher ground.

Watch this space though.

nacho libre

maw368 wrote: »

What are the models saying for the storms around Thursday, looks like the worst is for France now?

yes it looks that way.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I think that forecast is to do with an approaching secondary feature (mentioned yesterday in this thread) that is expected to cross Ireland tomorrow which is expected to bring more generally showery weather to parts of Connacht & Munster, although exact tracking of this feature is no way nailed on yet. I'd say any snow would be more likely on higher ground though intensity induced snow cannot be ruled out on lowlands but in general, a sleety, messy mix away from higher ground.

Watch this space though.

ah yeah a horrible mix most likely. unless we get a proper northerly, i think it'll continue this way. i'd much prefer cold dry and crisp weather to this in between situation. still if it does snow tomorrow or later this week, forget this post ever existed;)

leahyl

nacho libre wrote: »

yes it looks that way.

Jesus as if stealing our place in the World Cup wasn't enough, now they have to take our storm too :mad::P

No seriously though I still think the far south may experience some of these high winds on Thursday. Just my gut feeling

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

yes it looks that way.

it may go north and turn to the left like other atlantic storms? is that the met office in the uk's thinking?