This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

JanuarySnowstor

I must say i'm surprised at how dry today was at times.
Just goes to show how very cold air tends to evaporate ppn.

Still plenty chances of the white stuff over next 5 days or so
Amazing the lack of interest on here.
The last 2 years has truly spoilt all of us

Su Campu

Let's not start up that argument again, whatabout now!

Here's the storm windfield measured by satellite just before midday, showing 50 knot + winds west of Donegal, near where buoy M4 was measuring those moster waves. These sensors under-report at high windspeeds, and the wave height of 20 m is way over the >14 m threshold for hurricane force winds as per the Beaufort Scale.

WolfeIRE

To complement your wind chart, Su, here is a satellite image by MODIS from 12pm. Love the quiff on that storm

seanknowsall

Hi all, back after my one day ban. For what?? For being abusive...no, for being nasty to another member...no.... for daring to suggest that the Friday storm wouldnt materialise!! Apparently I was trolling after saying that the model was completely over estimating the scale of the storm. You know there seems to be bit of a clique in this place...you either agree with all they say or your'e out. Well anyway I was right... surely "experienced" meteorologists on here realised that the sheer scale of the forecasted storm was way unrealistic. Well no storm on Friday and any snow confined to highest hills and mountains... I hope those who hyped everyone up feel a little silly now. I probably going to get another ban after posting this but so what... mild and dank Xmas weather wise... its not as if there is any exciting weather to look forward to.

snow ghost

seanknowsall wrote: »

Hi all, back after my one day ban. For what?? For being abusive...no, for being nasty to another member...no.... for daring to suggest that the Friday storm wouldnt materialise!! Apparently I was trolling after saying that the model was completely over estimating the scale of the storm. You know there seems to be bit of a clique in this place...you either agree with all they say or your'e out. Well anyway I was right... surely "experienced" meteorologists on here realised that the sheer scale of the forecasted storm was way unrealistic. Well no storm on Friday and any snow confined to highest hills and mountains... I hope those who hyped everyone up feel a little silly now. I probably going to get another ban after posting this but so what... mild and dank Xmas weather wise... its not as if there is any exciting weather to look forward to.

Have you considered writing a strongly worded letter to Amnesty International?

maquiladora

seanknowsall wrote: »

Hi all, back after my one day ban. For what?? For being abusive...no, for being nasty to another member...no.... for daring to suggest that the Friday storm wouldnt materialise!! Apparently I was trolling after saying that the model was completely over estimating the scale of the storm. You know there seems to be bit of a clique in this place...you either agree with all they say or your'e out. Well anyway I was right... surely "experienced" meteorologists on here realised that the sheer scale of the forecasted storm was way unrealistic. Well no storm on Friday and any snow confined to highest hills and mountains... I hope those who hyped everyone up feel a little silly now. I probably going to get another ban after posting this but so what... mild and dank Xmas weather wise... its not as if there is any exciting weather to look forward to.

Speak Now

seanknowsall wrote: »

Hi all, back after my one day ban. For what?? For being abusive...no, for being nasty to another member...no.... for daring to suggest that the Friday storm wouldnt materialise!! Apparently I was trolling after saying that the model was completely over estimating the scale of the storm. You know there seems to be bit of a clique in this place...you either agree with all they say or your'e out. Well anyway I was right... surely "experienced" meteorologists on here realised that the sheer scale of the forecasted storm was way unrealistic. Well no storm on Friday and any snow confined to highest hills and mountains... I hope those who hyped everyone up feel a little silly now. I probably going to get another ban after posting this but so what... mild and dank Xmas weather wise... its not as if there is any exciting weather to look forward to.

How sad copy and pasted "i told you so posts" in 2 threads

TheMilkyPirate

That small feature tomorrow could bring some moderately strong winds for a time to the south coast, Particularly south kerry and cork.

Sponge Bob

Never mind friday, what is that off the coast at Midnight in the 18z :eek:

JanuarySnowstor

The 18z has shifted tomorrow's depression further North and also slightly deeper.
There's a risk of some very severe weather across the South coast, severe as in wind

WolfeIRE

Inis Oir?

Take a loot at the latest sat24 animation. A lot of beefy showers making their way toward us

http://sat24.com/en/eu

ninebeanrows

Thursday's thing looks a game over thing at this point!

Yes tomorrow gusts to 50 knots along south coast.

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The 18z has shifted tomorrow's depression further North and also slightly deeper.
There's a risk of some very severe weather across the South coast, severe as in wind

Doesn't look very severe to me. 50-60mph guts max on the exposed SW coast on this run. Would need to be a bit further north and a bit more intense.

Deep Easterly

I don't recall ANYONE saying this potential storm would materialize? Nobody was wrong,except Seanknowall of course!

Back on topic. HIRLAM still giving gale potential tomorrow for the extreme southwest:



Tightish gradient squeeze south of the low, slacker further north with some wintry type showers.

Min

Snow for high ground tomorrow in the south is my prediction.

maw368

seanknowsall wrote: »

Hi all, back after my one day ban. For what?? For being abusive...no, for being nasty to another member...no.... for daring to suggest that the Friday storm wouldnt materialise!! Apparently I was trolling after saying that the model was completely over estimating the scale of the storm. You know there seems to be bit of a clique in this place...you either agree with all they say or your'e out. Well anyway I was right... surely "experienced" meteorologists on here realised that the sheer scale of the forecasted storm was way unrealistic. Well no storm on Friday and any snow confined to highest hills and mountains... I hope those who hyped everyone up feel a little silly now. I probably going to get another ban after posting this but so what... mild and dank Xmas weather wise... its not as if there is any exciting weather to look forward to.

I don't wish to get dragged into any disagreements but I wanted to point out your ignorance. Don't take offence and I hopw no one sees this as abuse but I'm sorry; claiming you are right before the day has come is as rediculous as your claims of people over hyping a unrealistic event. As others have mentioned previously (if you bothered reading back through the comments) that people have wondered why are the UKMO sticking to their guns, and that maybe it is because they have information that we do not. Then there is the fact models are not always right and at the moment there doesn't seem to be a unanimous decision or universal agreement on the outcome so there is still plenty of time for the storm to come. Even if it misses us and hits France, then we could not have known that was going to happen but it doesn't change the fact a bad storm did in fact exist and could have or nearly hit Ireland. I'm going to hold my tongue and wait and see what happens because many different forecasters and models have different ideas and no one seems to be sure.

TheMilkyPirate

Don't feed the trolls..

maquiladora

Ian Fergusson, BBC weather bloke, posted this on nw a few mins ago

Additional important thoughts from learned Exeter colleagues: "There has been a general run-by-run trend for models to follow this less developmental more zonal track…and yet, there must remain a significant possibility that dynamic instabilities in the cross-Atlantic flow and/or more engagement of upper troughing east of Newfoundland will induce much more development." In other words: a LOW probability, BUT a high impact event if it occured.... and one hopefully that won't happen. Fingers-crossed...

Su Campu

seanknowsall wrote: »

Hi all, back after my one day ban. For what?? For being abusive...no, for being nasty to another member...no.... for daring to suggest that the Friday storm wouldnt materialise!! Apparently I was trolling after saying that the model was completely over estimating the scale of the storm. You know there seems to be bit of a clique in this place...you either agree with all they say or your'e out. Well anyway I was right... surely "experienced" meteorologists on here realised that the sheer scale of the forecasted storm was way unrealistic. Well no storm on Friday and any snow confined to highest hills and mountains... I hope those who hyped everyone up feel a little silly now. I probably going to get another ban after posting this but so what... mild and dank Xmas weather wise... its not as if there is any exciting weather to look forward to.

The chances of getting a storm of that severity are pretty low, yes, but everyone here will tell you that. The exact formula for putting one of these mosters together is a tighly kept secret known only by Mother Nature, and the models, much as they'd like to have a quick peek through her recipe book, have to instead resort to guessing what's in there.

Most of the time they come pretty close, but they needed everything to come out just right or the balance would not be struck. The barotropic area near the Bahamas was ill-defined and highly open to minor changes that would prove crucial when coupled with the uncertainty in the upper cutoff low in the western US. The jet and surface feature needed to merge perfectly, like a trapeese man catching the woman, otherwise things were likely to fall out of sync. As it happens that surface feature has missed the jet (plane) and is now hitching a ride across the Atlantic on another carrier, but will be flying via Paris now, not direct as we had thought.

My point is, it's not what you were saying, it was HOW you were saying it that was the problem....

WolfeIRE

Mr. Vogan's views on the potential storm. I canny believe it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KhOjqLCf1I

maquiladora

It looks like any changes will result in a shift further south rather than further north. It will be interesting to see what (if anything) actually becomes of it after seeing so many variations on the models.

Ahorseofaman

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Mr. Vogan's views on the potential storm. I canny believe it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KhOjqLCf1I

how accurate does this guy tend to be ?

Deep Easterly

A zoomed in shot of the yr.no HIRLAM model forecast for 1700hrs tomorrow (windspeed)



Looks like it going to be a close call. Valentia & Sherkin Island the stations to keep an eye on later tomorrow.

cotton

Jeez, this is worse than wondering if Santa will come or not.:D

ninebeanrows

Storm coming in the range of meso NAE runs (UKM meso)

And shows the potential for this storm to be more intense as it approaches us.

Although not a danger to Ireland on these charts, alot further north and intense than any other model i have seen tonight.

gbee

maw368 wrote: »

I'm going to hold my tongue and wait and see what happens because ...

There was a storm forecast of very severe weather, maybe two months ago. Many of the senior meteorologists on this forum were warning of dire events.

I made one comment, "it won't happen" ~ and it didn't.

Why was I so confident whilst lacking in the technical understanding and experience in this field ~ it was another type of experience, storms of this magnitude don't tend to get forecasted.

We tend to get hit by bombs. What made the last two days interesting? most of the elements for bombs were in play, And we do have a few records which suggests those bombs tried to go off ~ the single high wind gusts, single high wind gusts in otherwise calm weather and the met buoy with the record wave height.

Now, someone reading all these might see that a single element was missing that would prevent the bomb from exploding ~ they don't tend to anyway, and when they do they are sudden and extremely violent.

Deep Easterly

Varies a little from the actual UKMO global model projection for the same time:



Very slightly further north with a nice pressure gradient on its northern flank. Encouraging, though sprinkled with salt.

mike65

Did anyone watch the met error and UK Met Office forecasts on RTE and BBC? I just did back to back, on RTE Friday wasn't even mentioned, the Beeb were paying notable attention to the potential for a damaging storm track.

maw368

gbee wrote: »

they don't tend to anyway, and when they do they are sudden and extremely violent.

I'm not sure what you are getting at. You point out that these storms don't always happen but some times they do, exactly my point; no one seems to know for sure. Everyone here is debating the possibilities. If you are referring to the Seanknowsall issue which I hope not as I did state I didn't want to get dragged into it; I would point out that even though he maybe coorect and his comments were made with good reason, he failed to explain why. After all that is why we are al here right, trying to discuss why we think the weather will be a certain way in a certain amount of time. So as far as I can tell it still is a chance ofr this to happen and again I'm going to refrain from any comments of certainty on the outcome.

JanuarySnowstor

Interesting chart there Matty, much further North.