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This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Ah cool , thanks for that Jet Stream forecast loop Nacho

    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream;sess=


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,987 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    GME is nice.

    e8o9ro.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    ECM has a very scattered storm track,take your pick.
    185031.JPG


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    GFS 0Z continues their non event theme.

    185032.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Very Similar 0Z from UKMO so its looking like game over now.

    185033.GIF


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yep UKM cancels the low even though it develops reasonably at T36. Would appear game up for that

    Much better agreement from the gas eps of no storm


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Updated Weather Warning from Met Eireann

    Issued at 13 December 2011 - 04:18
    Severe Weather Alert
    Very windy or stormy today with winds gusting 100 to 140 km/h, strongest along the North coast. Squally showers or thunderstorms will give some wintry falls of sleet and snow especially on hills bu at some low levels also. The showers will be most frequent in the North and West with blizzard like conditions on some of the hills.

    Gale Warning

    West to Southwest gale to storm force winds will affect all coasts of Ireland and the Irish Sea today with winds reaching violent storm force at times on the North and Northwest coast.
    Issued at 05:00 on 13-Dec-2011


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Deirdre Lowe on the radio there said that on Thursday there is the risk of stormy weather, but there is a chance that this storm may miss us. So even the pros are having problems with this thing.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Met Éireann have forecast 50 gust 67 knot winds for Donegal Airport.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Consistently highest for gusts so far has been Mace on the hourlys. That since about 11am yesterday hour by hour by hour.

    Still highest in 8am report at 65KT > http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp . Malin should take over soon.

    edit> still Mace Head with a 66KT at 9am beating all the rest by a scutch of Knots.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 605 ✭✭✭ffarrell7


    Has been snowing on an off for the past hour in North Dublin - Portmarnock - bit too wet to stick


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Met Éireann's aviation chart for 1200 shows two areas over Ireland:

    A: All of Ireland, except the northern half of Ulster:

    Generally rain, sleet, graupel, thundery hail showers. Localised moderate snow showers on hills.

    B: Northern half of Ulster:

    Generally rain, sleet, graupel, thundery hail showers. Localised moderate snow showers on mountains.


  • Registered Users Posts: 698 ✭✭✭Tazio


    Looks like the storm on Thurs may swing to the south... phew.


    EDIT : I finally figured out how to embed pictures in a post... feeling very proud! ;)



    185046.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Tazio wrote: »
    Looks like the storm on Thurs may swing to the south... phew.

    Good news for those who like snow as this scenario (low tracking further south) would bring widespread wintry showers on Thursday night into Friday morning.


  • Registered Users Posts: 188 ✭✭corkman123


    wheres the windy weather in cork for today? not a breeze and clear skies lol..


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Met Éireann's aviation chart for 1200 shows two areas over Ireland:

    A: All of Ireland, except the northern half of Ulster:

    Generally rain, sleet, graupel, thundery hail showers. Localised moderate snow showers on hills.

    B: Northern half of Ulster:

    Generally rain, sleet, graupel, thundery hail showers. Localised moderate snow showers on mountains.


    That is the exact same forecast except that the snow line is seemingly forecast higher in the very north....and there is only one Mountain, Errigal, in the entire target area. :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    That is the exact same forecast except that the snow line is seemingly forecast higher in the very north....and there is only one Mountain, Errigal, in the entire target area. :D

    What about the Sperrins and Mournes? It also applies to Scotland too. Anyway, it's an aviation forecast, so not just for people on the ground!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    That is the exact same forecast except that the snow line is seemingly forecast higher in the very north....and there is only one Mountain, Errigal, in the entire target area. :D

    One mountain?
    Donegal has loads of mountains, the hills here have snow on them now.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Su Campu wrote: »
    What about the Sperrins and Mournes?
    UKMO territory :D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    10am , Mace still easily top gust @ 66KT ...about 24 hours continously tops now.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 352 ✭✭premiercad


    Interesting to see this trough out to our west swinging round and heading our way about the low, any chance of a more organised snow event?....I know it's an awful long sea track6504390625_24d675f967_z.jpg


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    UKMO territory :D
    I might be mistaken but I understood that UKMO and Met Eireann share their aviation forecasts (and TAF's)? i.e. jointly do forecasts for NI


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    I might be mistaken but I understood that UKMO and Met Eireann share their aviation forecasts (and TAF's)? i.e. jointly do forecasts for NI

    Thought a TAF was 'per airport' or is that a NOTAM??


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    I might be mistaken but I understood that UKMO and Met Eireann share their aviation forecasts (TAF's)?

    Met Éireann's chart shows Ireland, UK and northern France. There are no international boundaries. It's the same with the UKMO's Aviation charts too.

    Here's the Icelandic Met's one, which is not copyrighted.

    sigwx_iceland_12.png

    The TAFs are done by the respective countries however, so the airports in the North are done by the UK.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Yep, you're right Bob.What I mean is they share the information provided in the TAF's and they jointly provide the aviation forecasts (METARS?) for Northern Ireland airports like Aldergrove and City of Derry.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Thought a TAF was 'per airport' or is that a NOTAM??

    Both are per airport, but a NOTAM can also be issued for a certain FIR ("airspace"). These are done by the respective countries, although a NOTAM may not be weather-related at all so it's the aviation authority that issues them. SIGMETS are done per country too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 605 ✭✭✭ffarrell7


    Su Campu wrote: »
    What about the Sperrins and Mournes? It also applies to Scotland too. Anyway, it's an aviation forecast, so not just for people on the ground!

    Wicklow gets by far the highest snowfall in Ireland..apart from Kerry the mountains are the highest in Ireland.However it is a much colder region than the south-west for obvious reasons. It is common to have metres of the stuff higher up in a cold winter like the last three.:D:D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Yep, you're right Bob.What I mean is they share the information provided in the TAF's and they jointly provide the aviation forecasts (METARS?) for Northern Ireland airports like Aldergrove and City of Derry.

    No, the UKMO do the TAFs for those. The METARs are just the weather reports.


  • Registered Users Posts: 107 ✭✭whataboutnow


    ffarrell7 wrote: »
    Wicklow gets by far the highest snowfall in Ireland..apart from Kerry the mountains are the highest in Ireland.However it is a much colder region than the south-west for obvious reasons. It is common to have metres of the stuff higher up in a cold winter like the last three.:D:D

    I think you'll find you are wrong.The sperrings or the donegal mountains get more snow than the wicklow mountains,certain mountains in donegal have been white for weeks.also the wicklow mountains gets a lot less precipitation than here and we are in a colder region.glad i could help


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  • Registered Users Posts: 605 ✭✭✭ffarrell7


    You are deluding yourself...the 'hills of donegal' rather than mountains. Ring MET Eireann and they will put you straight. I was in Letterkenny last week and there was not a patch of snow in the 'hills' when I was there. The east is generally a colder region away from the milder Atlantic with more extremes when easterly or north-easterly winds arrive. Donegal or other ranges of elevation just do not get the same savage snowfall as the Wicklow uplands...youtube it and you will see for yourself. Th coldest temperatures are also in Wicklow, midlands and occasionally Cavan/Monaghan.


This discussion has been closed.
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