Animals, Plants and the Weather, Natures Signs :MOD note 121

fr wishy washy

The Birds are going mad for the apples and nuts this morning.

Pangea

Postman Michael predicts more cold weather to come
http://www.donegalnow.com/sp/article_manager/detail/postman_michael_predicts_more_cold_weather_to_come

vistafinder

Oh well thats the end of the snow for this winter now anyway.Good man jinks it again for us. :pac:

Joe Public

vistafinder wrote: »

Oh well thats the end of the snow for this winter now anyway.Good man jinks it again for us. :pac:

Don't think he covers Cork:)

Discodog

Pangea wrote: »

Postman Michael predicts more cold weather to come
http://www.donegalnow.com/sp/article_manager/detail/postman_michael_predicts_more_cold_weather_to_come

A friend of mine has a garden centre & this idiot has cost him thousands in lost revenue. This is the second winter in a row that his "predictions" have been wrong. People haven't bought plants because of his "forecasts".
He would be ignored in most cultures but here he gets lots of publicity.

Animals can react to short term changes like atmospheric pressure but the idea that they can predict weeks ahead is bunkum.

Oneiric 3

Discodog wrote: »

A friend of mine has a garden centre & this idiot has cost him thousands in lost revenue. This is the second winter in a row that his "predictions" have been wrong. People haven't bought plants because of his "forecasts".
He would be ignored in most cultures but here he gets lots of publicity.

Animals can react to short term changes like atmospheric pressure but the idea that they can predict weeks ahead is bunkum.

What is disturbing going by that is how many people put such absolute faith in these long range 'forecasts'; equally as disturbing is how these forecasts are distributed, i.e, by trashy, tacky media sources who's only goal is to titillate the dim witted masses with mind numbing stupidity.

Pangea

Discodog wrote: »

A friend of mine has a garden centre & this idiot has cost him thousands in lost revenue.

Yawn, here we go again. If you knew what you were talking about you would know that the Postmans forecast last winter would of put money in your friends pocket (thats if people did take any heed of his forecasts) so the question is do people take heed of his forecasts at all? Going by last winters no they don't.

Other groups did make 'Worst winter in 100 years forecasts' , aside from forecasts perhaps people were more reluctant to buy plants after seeing two of the most coldest winters in recent times. See below for clarity before you start blaming the postman.

Postmans forecast 2011
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=75029726

Coles wrote: »

The predictions of a hard winter (as started by John Madden of Exacta Weather and widely reported in the print media) have sparked a furore on LiveLine because the garden centre businesses have seen a fall off in business. The Donegal postman Michael Gallagher has had to come on to say it was nothing to do with him, but that doesn't stop Joe Duffy from repeating the allegation.

slowburner

Discodog wrote: »

A friend of mine has a garden centre & this idiot has cost him thousands in lost revenue. This is the second winter in a row that his "predictions" have been wrong. People haven't bought plants because of his "forecasts".

Do people shop for plants in the winter?
I don't wish to take sides in this, but it seems to me that the fall off in visitors to garden centres could just as likely be a product of the ceaseless rain and generally gloomy weather.
Not to mention the other climate.

Discodog

slowburner wrote: »

Do people shop for plants in the winter?
I don't wish to take sides in this, but it seems to me that the fall off in visitors to garden centres could just as likely be a product of the ceaseless rain and generally gloomy weather.
Not to mention the other climate.

The reason why he blames the postman is because it's often the reason given by his customers. I am in an associated profession & I hear the same thing every week. Mild wet weather is perfect for Autumn & Winter planting but people get put off by the "threat" of cold.

I would agree that the problem is made worse because warm wet weather is not as newsworthy as cold & snow. Most people are rightly sceptical of long range forecasts but the postman taps into old misguided beliefs.

Joe Public

Discodog wrote: »

The reason why he blames the postman is because it's often the reason given by his customers. I am in an associated profession & I hear the same thing every week. Mild wet weather is perfect for Autumn & Winter planting but people get put off by the "threat" of cold.

I would agree that the problem is made worse because warm wet weather is not as newsworthy as cold & snow. Most people are rightly sceptical of long range forecasts but the postman taps into old misguided beliefs.

You still have to give the postman credit for probably being the most successful long range forecaster over the past 20 years. If most people are rightly sceptical of long range forecasts then what's the problem?

Discodog

Joe Public wrote: »

You still have to give the postman credit for probably being the most successful long range forecaster over the past 20 years. If most people are rightly sceptical of long range forecasts then what's the problem?

That's quite a claim. Do you have any valid evidence to back it up?

It might be a fun research project for a student to evaluate the accuracy of any long range forecasts.

Pangea

Discodog wrote: »

That's quite a claim. Do you have any valid evidence to back it up?

It might be a fun research project for a student to evaluate the accuracy of any long range forecasts.

More accurate of a claim than what you claimed he forecasted last winter while calling him an idiot.

Joe Public

Discodog wrote: »

That's quite a claim. Do you have any valid evidence to back it up?

It might be a fun research project for a student to evaluate the accuracy of any long range forecasts.

The word "probably" is the only proof I need :-)I do keep a mental note of any long range forecasts, their creators and the outcomes. People say they would do better by pure guesswork but to give long range forecasting any credibility it needs to be backed up by a good story, he uses signs of nature which is fine unless proven otherwise.It's up to every individual to decide on who or what to believe or just to believe in nothing and take each day as it comes. You will find that all the garden centres have dropped shrubs and hedging that get killed by the very low temperatures we experienced in the recent cold winters. If people decided not to go to garden centres due to a cold long range forecast what would they have purchased otherwise?

Discodog

Pangea wrote: »

More accurate of a claim than what you claimed he forecasted last winter while calling him an idiot.

I agree that the term idiot is excessive & I apologise to Mr Postman. Maybe the word belongs more to the people who believe & act on his predictions or on any long range forecast.

However the fact remains that the likes of the Postman & Mr Ring etc have not been researched regarding their accuracy as far as I know.

I would rather trust a long range forecast backed up by research & data rather than "a good story".

There are hundreds of plants that can easily survive cold winters.

Pangea

Discodog wrote: »

I agree that the term idiot is excessive & I apologise to Mr Postman. Maybe the word belongs more to the people who believe & act on his predictions or on any long range forecast.

.

I dont think many people act on his predictions, he forecasted a mild winter last year and according to you and garden centres nobody bought plants so people didnt act on his predictions, so maybe the term idiot can be applied to those misinformed people that keep blaming things on him. After two harsh winters people were bound to be more sceptical of buying garden things.

Discodog wrote: »

There are hundreds of plants that can easily survive cold winters.

Then why blame long range forecasts for the fall of sales?

kenmc

that stupid bloody groundhog reckons we'll have an early spring. does that mean no snow ?

Lucreto

kenmc wrote: »

that stupid bloody groundhog reckons we'll have an early spring. does that mean no snow ?

Seriously how can you believe that a small woodland creature thousands of miles away is able to tell what the weather is like in Ireland.

If anything he would be telling the weather for the US.

Punxsutawney Phil fans say that there is only one Phil (all the other groundhog weathermen are imposters), and that he has made weather prognostications for over 123 years as of 2013. They say that every summer, Phil is given a sip of the mysterious Groundhog Elixir, which magically lengthens his life for seven years.

I know people who think this groundhog thing is real and is really 123 years old.

kenmc

I forgot the sarcasm, my bad.

Lucreto

kenmc wrote: »

I forgot the sarcasm, my bad.

Oops Sorry:o My sarcasm detector must be broken.:D

vistafinder

I just saw a flock of these passing from the north when I was haveing my coffey.

http://trekbikes.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83453a62f69e2016306582522970d-500wi

Joe Public

kenmc wrote: »

that stupid bloody groundhog reckons we'll have an early spring. does that mean no snow ?

Well, if that groundhog lived in Ireland then he'd be gone back into hiding for another six weeks. Saturday 2nd February was a very calm cool bright sunny day and the groundhog would have had no problem seeing his shadow.

If Donegal did groundhogs then we'd probably be in for the coldest February/March on record.

Mr Bumble

First bumble bee queen of the year.....2 degrees in strong sunshine.....brave bee

seven_eleven

Ever notice how spiders always appear inside the house before a large rain storm?

slowburner

seven_eleven wrote: »

Ever notice how spiders always appear inside the house before a large rain storm?

Yes, and as a child I was always told not to kill a spider, or I'd make it rain.

vickers209

With the cold spell coming, has anyone noticed any strange behavior in animals in prep for it???

Pangea

vickers209 wrote: »

With the cold spell coming, has anyone noticed any strange behavior in animals in prep for it???

Noticed the cuckoo out all week, thought it was very early to hear it. Probably a sign of spring more than snow though.

dopolahpec

Pangea wrote: »

Noticed the cuckoo out all week, thought it was very early to hear it. Probably a sign of spring more than snow though.

Very early indeed for a cuckoo. Didn't think they got here for at least another 3-4 weeks.

kenmc

vickers209 wrote: »

With the cold spell coming, has anyone noticed any strange behavior in animals in prep for it???

I've noticed that the birds are not touching the fatballs in my garden, usually they'd be gone in a day or 2 after putting them out, now they're there since Saturday and barely touched. Starlings usually demolish them as soon as I put them out, but not this week.
No idea what that means.....

Irish Steve

kenmc wrote: »

I've noticed that the birds are not touching the fatballs in my garden, usually they'd be gone in a day or 2 after putting them out, now they're there since Saturday and barely touched. Starlings usually demolish them as soon as I put them out, but not this week.
No idea what that means.....

P'raps they've started putting horse in them, it has to be going somewhere:D

Redsunset

The opposite has happened here. Was a frenzy yesterday morning. Fatballs snd nuts devoured. Netting with some left even carried away.