Bank of Ireland shares

space_tourist

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Sold a few weeks ago, got back in just now at 7.26, might go lower but I hope that longer term it will be OK

huge amount of shorting going on with this stock

drunkmonkey

space_tourist wrote: »

huge amount of shorting going on with this stock

Where can you see the short interest, only 3 shorts listed here for Irish stock https://www.centralbank.ie/regulation/industry-market-sectors/securities-markets/short-selling-regulation/public-net-short-positions

littlevillage

Down again today, going to dip my toe in ..... just has to be good value at this stage 🀗

drunkmonkey

littlevillage wrote: »

Down again today, going to dip my toe in ..... just has to be good value at this stage ��

On what basis, this isn’t going to rally into Brexit.

littlevillage

drunkmonkey wrote: »

On what basis, this isn’t going to rally into Brexit.

On the basis that it was €8.25 a couple of weeks ago and this morning I picked up a few shares for €7.19 and nothing in particular has changed regarding the Banks challenges (Brexit) and if anything the recent news has been positive (pretty good recent results, first dividend in years etc. A bit of new blood replacing some of the older heads at the top table) so if anything the SP should actually be going up.

It must be some kind of technical issue with the shares and that will eventually get resolved.

Also if and when some kind of a Brexit deal is hammered out, there could be a nice bounce in this SP.

drunkmonkey

A technical issue with the shares?, I got out a few weeks ago with profit, the selling pressure on this will be immense if this ever gets the long term investors out of the red. A lot of people are still so stuck with these shares, probably most of their staff along with the general public.
They have a lot of exposure to the UK, could be a lot more down until Brexit is clear and then even the bounce will be hammered with selling.

littlevillage

drunkmonkey wrote: »

A technical issue with the shares?, I got out a few weeks ago with profit, the selling pressure on this will be immense if this ever gets the long term investors out of the red. A lot of people are still so stuck with these shares, probably most of their staff along with the general public.
They have a lot of exposure to the UK, could be a lot more down until Brexit is clear and then even the bounce will be hammered with selling.

Interesting point about the long term investors....and how that could be a drag on the share price. :rolleyes:

but even if the SP were to return to the €8.25 of 18th Jan ... I would already be happy with my investment.

Shauny2010

drunkmonkey wrote: »

A technical issue with the shares?, I got out a few weeks ago with profit, the selling pressure on this will be immense if this ever gets the long term investors out of the red. A lot of people are still so stuck with these shares, probably most of their staff along with the general public.
They have a lot of exposure to the UK, could be a lot more down until Brexit is clear and then even the bounce will be hammered with selling.

What long term investors are in the red here???

drunkmonkey

Shauny2010 wrote: »

What long term investors are in the red here???

Did you hear of the Celtic tiger? There’s a fair few thought this was a Unicorn back in the day!

drunkmonkey

32.4 billion shares outstanding before the 30/1 consolidation and your wondering are there many HODLer’s? Seriously did you do any DD?
BOI shareholders make bitcoin HODLer’s look like amateurs.

Shauny2010

All those celtic tiger share holders were wiped out when the bank failed and had to get a Bailout. You seem to think that they owned all the 32 billion shares.
Bitcoin?? whats that got to do with BOI, other than people who bought at the all time highs getting there ass burnt now

drunkmonkey

The equity in their shares was wiped out the shares themselves weren’t. This will have selling pressure the whole way to €18, it needs triple from here to get 2007 retail investors back to 0.

Shauny2010

BOI had 1 billion shares in issue in 2008. By 2015 there was 32 billion shares.
So the long term share holders were diluted down to less than 3%.
Those long term share holders were also the same ones who throughout 2008 -2012 panic sold the share price right down. so not alone were they diluted out of existence but most sold out.
So at most ~2% of the original long term holders exist, some of those put money into the bank during the rights issue but thats new investments not the original.
The only major seller left is the Irish Government stake and they are hardly a distressed seller, I doubt they will sell now and if they do it will be another bank or investment fund at a large premium to todays share price

Brexit uncertainty is all that holds the share price down at the moment. Long term this will give great returns in the form of share price growth and Divivdents

drunkmonkey

That’s a lot of assumptions.

littlevillage

forgot to mention in my other update ...Blackrock investments increased their holding in BOI from 5.03% to 6.14% on or about March 5th. This in and of itself doesn't mean anything as they have funds that they have to find some home for somewhere regardless... but they have a strong reputation for only selecting the best companies to invest in. Soo just another justification for suggesting there might be value in BOI at the moment.

Incidently none of the other large institutional investors appear to have lowered their %, so Blackrock may have had to buy on the market.

garrettod

Hi,

Anyone got any thoughts on when the government will finally dispose of it's remaining shares in BoI ?

I can't recall the exact holding, but I think it's circa 15% of ordinary shares, from memory.

It seems to me that there is no real benefit in the state holding shares in BoI, as the shareholding is too small to give the government true influence over the Board, while as an investment it's only adding to the concentrated risk that the government has in the Irish Banks.

I've not run the numbers, but have a hunch that if the government sold then it would have fully recovered it's investment in BoI (something the government is unlikely to be able to say about it' investments in other banks, I fear).

Personally, I'd rather see the funds come out and be reinvested in (genuine) infrastructural projects, or national debt reduction.

garrettod

With regards to BoI as a business, my view is:

• it's overly reliant on lending to the Irish and UK markets (which results in high concentration risks, requires capital to back the loans etc.)
• it desperately needs significantly more fee income from non lending activities (because this does not require capital and somewhat diversifies future revenue risk)
• it needs more exposure to non UK / Irish markets, but doesn't seem capable of doing any decent size investments anytime soon
• it's going to need 5-10 years to deal with the current overhaul (ref: IT investment and staff "changes"). That will bring notable cost reductions, but probably just in time for the next recession. It may make it attractive for a merger / takeover at some point along this journey. HSBC anyone ?
  

For me, it offers potential for a modest dividend stream over the next couple of years, but I'm not sure it does much more. There will probably be some modest growth in the share price once the government sells it's remaining shares, or as more and more people buy into the Bank looking for future dividend income, but that won't set the world on fire imho.

Just my 2 cents worth

littlevillage

Down to €6.91 today. I nipped in for a few shares at €7.19 about a month ago, (was tempted by the price drop, feeling it would be a temporary dip)...the shares promptly recovered to about €7.40, but this week they are on the skids again. I know theres been some negative sentiment regarding banks and the whole ISEQ recently. But anyone else tempted to add a few shares to their portfolio at these prices?

daheff

littlevillage wrote: »

Down to €6.91 today. I nipped in for a few shares at €7.19 about a month ago, (was tempted by the price drop, feeling it would be a temporary dip)...the shares promptly recovered to about €7.40, but this week they are on the skids again. I know theres been some negative sentiment regarding banks and the whole ISEQ recently. But anyone else tempted to add a few shares to their portfolio at these prices?

If i had money-absolutely yes

Think markets are all down last few days over Facebook/tech news.

Might struggle for a while to recover.

Gatoh

daheff wrote: »

..Might struggle for a while to recover...

For sure.. :mad:

garrettod

littlevillage wrote: »

.....anyone else tempted to add a few shares to their portfolio at these prices?

If it's a long term play then it's probably worth a punt, but short to medium term I'm not so sure (you'll have seen my earlier posts, no doubt).

Investors may get lucky between now and late May, but there are no guarantees that prices will rise a bit, before the traditional summer sell off.

Shauny2010

Deutsche bank and HSBC are pushing down the European banking stocks. The mid-term results of these are expected to be lower than predicted. As for BOI we will have to wait for the interms to see how they are doing. In the short term I see this as a buying opportunity as we are approaching the ex-div date in mid April this should get a boost then week before that.
I am going to buy more while its at this price as I see this as a good long term investment

jd06

Hi, very quick question
I bought boi shares at .27 cent 4 years ago, silly thing to do I'm a complete novice and know nothing about it other than I should have stayed clear!!

Can anyone in plain English tell me what I should do, iv no problem letting them sit. Tia

Gatoh

jd06 wrote: »

I bought boi shares at .27 cent ..

27cent = €8.10 todays money. And don't forget stamp duty and broker fees ..

Brexit holds the share price down at this moment but I see no reason why shouldn't you get most of that invested money back if you willing to wait for another 10 years or so

Okon

jd06 wrote: »

Can anyone in plain English tell me what I should do, iv no problem letting them sit. Tia

Let them sit long term... there is unlikely to be any short term gains in BOI bearing in mind the price you paid for them.

Geuze

jd06 wrote: »

Hi, very quick question
I bought boi shares at .27 cent 4 years ago, silly thing to do I'm a complete novice and know nothing about it other than I should have stayed clear!!

Can anyone in plain English tell me what I should do, iv no problem letting them sit. Tia

27 cent............

I paid 10 euro, and thought I was getting a bargain, as they had fallen from a peak of 18 euro.

Gatoh

Geuze wrote: »

27 cent............

I paid 10 euro, and thought I was getting a bargain, as they had fallen from a peak of 18 euro.

Don't forget share split and share consolidation

otterj

Think youll find your at a loss now on your 27 cent investment

feelgoodinc27

A cheque processing fee is mentioned if you want to receive your dividend via cheque, is that a fee for lodging the cheque?

garrettod

More cost cutting on the way, with up to 200 more middle management to go....

They've had an open ended voluntary redundancy scheme open for a very long time now and haven't got enough people out, so bar compulsory redundancy I'm not sure how they'll achieve what they want this time around. Compulsory rdundancy will be opposed by unions, particularly while the bank is profitable etc.

I know it all helps the bottom line and there needs to be a bit of a clear out of old staff once every decade, but I'm starting to wonder if the new CEO has anything more in mind than cost cuts and getting the new IT system in ?