Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

Morgans

Reliable enough to go out on a limb on betfair?

Hulk Hands

premierstone wrote: »

Have it on a fairly reliable word that the Fly wont run this year

Seems like you're the only one? Price is unchanged on the exchanges

gudede

I actually don't think Fly will make it, sure he only made it once so far. He ran a lot last year so don't like the fact we didn't see the horse yet.

premierstone

Morgans wrote: »

Reliable enough to go out on a limb on betfair?

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Seems like you're the only one? Price is unchanged on the exchanges

I have done so myself, but yeah I see hes price is rock solid on BF, the info is from a chap working in the stable.

Huntey

premierstone wrote: »

I have done so myself, but yeah I see hes price is rock solid on BF, the info is from a chap working in the stable.

I'm sure if this was the case that Mullins and his cronies would be lashing into the price?

I know a person who rides out for the yard and he said he never hears anything ever. Very close knit supposedly.

ste2010

premierstone wrote: »

Have it on a fairly reliable word that the Fly wont run this year

Was that a "won't run" or a "things are not looking good"?

Goldcupfav

Huntey wrote: »

I'm sure if this was the case that Mullins and his cronies would be lashing into the price?

I know a person who rides out for the yard and he said he never hears anything ever. Very close knit supposedly.

Yeah i heard this aswell. Guy i know had a couple of horses with Mullins a few years back. He always says Mullins wouldnt tell you the right time of day it was if you met him at the races. Only ever told him about his horse and how he expected it to run.

Morgans

Goldcupfav wrote: »

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Yeah i heard this aswell. Guy i know had a couple of horses with Mullins a few years back. He always says Mullins wouldnt tell you the right time of day it was if you met him at the races. Only ever told him about his horse and how he expected it to run.

That's the kind of trainer I'd like to have horses with.

Colonel Sanders

Is champion chase getting the pricewise treatment tomorrow?

Wishful Thinking is blue across Oddschecker

I've beaten Segal on price of his Gold Cup & Champion Hurdle picks but I want nothing to do with this one

Juwwi

The ante post markets are a bit of a joke for the first 5 or 6 in the betting for most races.
Would'nt you think one of the bookies would stick their neck out and take a chance and offer decent ante post prices.
Most of the horses priced up at the top of the beting now will be bigger on the day.

Harry Angstrom

robbie1977 wrote: »

The ante post markets are a bit of a joke for the first 5 or 6 in the betting for most races.
Would'nt you think one of the bookies would stick their neck out and take a chance and offer decent ante post prices.
Most of the horses priced up at the top of the beting now will be bigger on the day.

Ladbrokes are really taking the piss with their prices. I know they're going Non runner/No bet on the big 4 races but they've murdered the prices as a result.

RichieLawlor

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Is champion chase getting the pricewise treatment tomorrow?

Wishful Thinking is blue across Oddschecker

I've beaten Segal on price of his Gold Cup & Champion Hurdle picks but I want nothing to do with this one

I cant figure this selection at all.

Harry Angstrom

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I cant figure this selection at all.

Once again he's picking a big priced horse for the sake of picking a big priced horse. I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot barge pole.

RichieLawlor

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

Once again he's picking a big priced horse for the sake of picking a big priced horse. I wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot barge pole.

I think Tom Segal has earned a little bit more respect than this

Colonel Sanders

Nope, don't see the sense here either.

On one hand you can argue he was never gonna tip a 10yo at 5/2 or an 11yo at 9/2 & ignoring those 2 the race looks wide open. However Wishful surely needs further & hasn't looked at all at home over 2n this year & was slammed by Finian's Rainbow

Someone on Betfair tipped Forpady at 50/1 last night. While he's not one for me I'd be on him at 50s before Wishful Thinking

Harry Angstrom

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I think Tom Segal has earned a little bit more respect than this

I'm talking specifically about his Cheltenham ante-post selections. Don't take it so personally Richie, unless you're a relation of his.

longshotvalue

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I think Tom Segal has earned a little bit more respect than this

in fairness he has, and his selections are longshots for a reason, he is selecting against the common opinion..

Colonel Sanders

Bet365 appear to be NRNB on the championship races

Colonel Sanders

aidankkk wrote: »

he is selecting against the common opinion..

Not necessarily what a "value" tipping column should be about

Some of the best value bets you'll have are actually at shorter prices. Backing a 6/4 shot that should be evs gives you way more juice than backing a 20/1 shot that should be 14s. I consistently make most money year in year out in the period October-December punting horses at relatively short prices, often 1st time out interspersed with a few decent ew bets

In fairness to Segal he has to tip "something" as the ante post column is flagged up to readers way in advance. Quite often you get the definite impression he doesn't fancy anything at a double figure price but punters who know nothing about "value" will complain if he tips a jolly. I said on another thread that this was quite obvious last year when he tipped Captain Cee Bee in the champion chase & while I haven't read today's column I'd be suspicious this is more of the same tbh

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Not necessarily what a "value" tipping column should be about

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By this I mean that obviously if you are confident your opinion is, on average, more accurate than the general public's you should finish ahead in the long run

It's just that big price does not necessarily => best value

hucklebuck

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I've just been watching the RPTV ante-post preview of the Champion Hurdle. I can't believe that Tom Segal put up Oscars Well for this one !!! That horse won't come within an ass's roar of winning a Champion Hurdle.

I really don't see the point in him tipping a big priced horse just for the sake of tipping a big priced horse. The fact that Oscars Well is now only 16/1 for the Champion Hurdle is purely down to Segal tipping it. He should be at least a 33/1 shot for the Champion Hurdle, considering his form so far this season.

Off memory he was tipped at 16/1 and doesn't seem to have twitched since, would be very surprised if he was even in top three

Colonel Sanders

hucklebuck wrote: »

Off memory he was tipped at 16/1 and doesn't seem to have twitched since, would be very surprised if he was even in top three

I think it was 20/1, Ladbrokes cut their 25/1 NRNB the day before

I can actually see where Segal is coming out of with Oscars Well as I said here and here

A lot of people seem to be tipping OW on the basis of Neptune horses having a reasonable record in the Champion. However I reckon it's very doubtful that OW is an Istabraq, Hardy Eustace or Peddlers Cross. On the other hand I do believe the race is wide open if The Fly doesn't make it in top form

hucklebuck

mdwexford wrote: »

Sprit Son and Zarkander would be the two I like the most at the moment although it is worrying not to have seen them.

Don't be too worried neither ran in England until after Christmas last season.

I am going to get rightly stuck into Zarkandar on payday, can't believe Nicholls is considering putting him in a handicap as a prep, he must have really come on since last year to throw him in a handicap giving a few decent looking prospects some weight. He will need to have improved a stone to have a handy race in a handicap and be competitive in the big one.

Given what Premier is saying, it's very very interesting that Flat Out is entered in Naas this weekend and in the Betfair Hurdle, he will hardly end up in the Champion, will he?:eek:

Can't have Grandouet given he ended up on the deck twice in the last 5, unlucky in Aintree but it's enough reason for me.

hucklebuck

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I think it was 20/1, Ladbrokes cut their 25/1 NRNB the day before

I can actually see where Segal is coming out of with Oscars Well as I said here and here

A lot of people seem to be tipping OW on the basis of Neptune horses having a reasonable record in the Champion. However I reckon it's very doubtful that OW is an Istabraq, Hardy Eustace or Peddlers Cross. On the other hand I do believe the race is wide open if The Fly doesn't make it in top form

Not sure how you do your fancy url hocus pocus but I said in the pricewise antepost thread he had quoted 16/1 but Ladbrokes were 20/1 NRNB.

Can't see it with Hurricane Fly, Unaccompanied, Binocular, Spirit Son, Grandouet and Zarkandar all in the race.

hucklebuck

Huntey wrote: »

I think the most ridiculous price of all is Binocular at 10's. Unless they put an engine in when he had that breathing operation then he won't be winning any Champion Hurdle.

I would not rule Binocular out with the breathing op and given what happened two years ago, plus he may well get treated earlier this year for his "allergy" :pac:

hucklebuck

premierstone wrote: »

I have done so myself, but yeah I see hes price is rock solid on BF, the info is from a chap working in the stable.

Do me a favour mate and ask him the targets for Samain and Flat Out.

longshotvalue

hucklebuck wrote: »

I would not rule Binocular out with the breathing op and given what happened two years ago, plus he may well get treated earlier this year for his "allergy" :pac:

Neither would i, there is a reasonable chance that last years first 2 who were well clear of the rest wont be running, and this will give him a great chance against more or less unproven horses, if he can return to form...

His festival form is very good in fairness..

Huntey

If the current market leaders turn up Binocular will be lucky to be in the first five home. Third string from the Henderson 2 milers as it is.

He was never the superstar he was made out to be, a very good horse all the same though.

ste2010

I hope the fly gets there this year I think this years champ hurdle will be a cracker and I want to see the fly in the thick of it..it's the only way we'll know how good the newbies are!
Can't wait..
Anyone any comments on cinders and ashes for the supreme novices?

hucklebuck

Huntey wrote: »

He was never the superstar he was made out to be, a very good horse all the same though.

An absolute pig of a horse imo, you'd never know which one would turn up but always runs well at Cheltenham.

Gave me my best day when bookies had Go Native at 28/1 for the Fighting Fifth!!:D