Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

newuser89

Haha love it , can't wait for march now,
Also for other races I'm backing
Zarkander - champ hurdle
Interested in button port e/w for gold cup would have geraghty on board.otherwise it's grand crus
Sizing Europe- champ chase
Grumeti - triumph hurdle
Simonsig is a decent price for the Neptune

UrbanSea

Just read one of the most stupid quotes ever.

If Grands Crus goes for the Gold Cup Champion Court will go for the RSA says the trainer.

What a twat. Has won a very strong novice chase over course and distance for the Jewson and was beaten 8 lengths by Grands Crus over course and distance into second. Strong form.

Tried 3 mile 1 over course and distance and was beaten 16 lengths. The horse is not a stayer

Slattsy

Slattsy wrote: »

My only ante post bet so far is Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. At 10/1.

I know he hasn't jumped a fence yet, but Henderson always said he was an Arkle horse in making.
No horse travelled better than him in the Supreme last year but he just got out stayed up the hill to finish 5 lenghts third to the class Al Ferof.
Another year on his back and bound to improve hugely from 5 to 6.
And basically once he wins any mickey mouse race over fences he will shorten up.

I said it first

Anyway lads, to settle an argument, some horses are made for hurdles and some for fences. It's not a simple transition.

I'll use an example. Time for Rupert, behind Big Buck's a few years ago in the World Hurdle but can't get close to that handicap rating over fences.
Few horses can do it, Moscow Flyer being one of them that immediately spring to mind, one of only a few horse that could give Istabraq a race, and we all know what he did over fences.

One of newusers points about PC was that he was second to HF in the champion last year. His hurdling rating therefore hugely superior to Sprinter Sacre. That's a given yes.
The thing with these French breds, as is common knowledge is that they've been jumping schooling fences since 3 yr olds, and are practically being held back by trainers for a chasing career. SS is the point and case here. Henderson has always said this horse was a chaser. He's clearly improved immensely over the winter and by jumping a fence and he blew PC out of the water.

I didn't expect him to win that easily but no horse has got me this excited in years. Maybe PC wasn't at his best, but do you really think Nicky H had SS at boiling point...... God no. He will only improve and improve and improve as he's seriously lightly raced. Can McCain improve PC much more?? Probably not.

The Arkle will be THE race of this year's festival.

ste2010

newuser89 wrote: »

I'm on my phone so the my Peddlers thing came from no were and you clearly know what I ment

And with binocular , rock on ruby should of won but for bad jump at the last ,
I expected better from rock on ruby to be honest but he still should of won and binocular is still a old shadow of himself who I will always back against and I'veade plenty in doing so in the past.

Hurdles is the biggest test of a horses speed or am I missing something and Peddlers was quicker over hurdles so I can't see how Peddlers couldnt live with ss speed,

The race was over after the first fence last time everyone saw that.

I am in agreement peddlers cross wasnt on song that day.. Ss looked incredible all te same. It will go close IMO
Just to note supreme was run faster than champ hurdle last year so ss run may have been faster than pc...and ss at his age prob has more improvement..pc is consistent though. Only time will tell if ss is

ste2010

Started trying to pick holes in supreme last night..haven't finished.
For a good price I like sous le cieux (clipped the last in leopardstown latest) don't think he would of won anyway but how he eased away from gallileos choice in fauryhouse in the race before impresses me most. Could be ground dependent..TBC..I'm Assuming ruby will ride him if he goes.
Other one cinders and ashes looks like a good prospect again, has course form and a bit of experience, price is great too.
Then left with waaheb and darlan..I'm drawing a line through the rest forthe
Moment that may change based on racing over next 2mths of course!

Anyone any thoughts on the above?

Slattsy

ste2010 wrote: »

Started trying to pick holes in supreme last night..haven't finished.
For a good price I like sous le cieux (clipped the last in leopardstown latest) don't think he would of won anyway but how he eased away from gallileos choice in fauryhouse in the race before impresses me most. Could be ground dependent..TBC..I'm Assuming ruby will ride him if he goes.
Other one cinders and ashes looks like a good prospect again, has course form and a bit of experience, price is great too.
Then left with waaheb and darlan..I'm drawing a line through the rest forthe
Moment that may change based on racing over next 2mths of course!

Anyone any thoughts on the above?

Waheeb was ruled out of the race recently. Shame.

newuser89

Forgot about galileos choice.i think he would beat Mullins horse on better ground than when he was second to him .sous le cieux didn't look very gd at leopardstown either ,I was there on the day and expected him to win it and he showed no speed at all

Hulk Hands

This may sound over the top, but if Sprinter Sacre had never jumped a fence this year, I would be backing him for the champion hurdle.

The form of last years supreme is top drawer. They completed course and distance 4's faster than the champion hurdle field (albeit slightly less weight). SS to my mind was easily the best horse in that race, but his lack of maturity and weakness after only 2 starts stopped him from winning. Many people fancy Spirit Son for this years champion hurdle. I'd see no reason why Sprinter Sacre couldn't beat him over hurdles this term. I also think he would beat Peddlers Cross over hurdles.

The fact that he is an out and out chaser though, and jumps a fence superbly, is what makes him national hunts next superstar. 5/2 is too big a price for the Arkle. Imo, he has greater cruising speed than Peddlers Cross. He has shown that he is a better jumper. He also has scope for much more improvement than PC. Looks to me as one of the bankers of the meeting.

newuser89

Ss jumping hasnt been put under pressure yet in two starts over fences.
PC was under pressure straight out last time as he couldn't afford another mistake after the first,
There's a lot of improvement from both horses to come,from experience

baazzaa

Just my own few on The Peddlers Cross /Sprinter Sacre Topic,

For me it waS obvious Sprinter was going to beat peddlers last time.

For 1 its was clear that Peddlers going into the race was in need of a rest,He runs with alot enthusiasum so he need a decent rest after racing, he a type of horse who like to get on with his races so when he clouted the first LTO he wasnt aloud to get on with his job as normal.The flat speed track and small field always going to suit SS for which this race was a lovley progression.

SS has bags of speed we seen that last year when McCoy only had to tap him to go away from Cue Card, he more than likly didnt come up the hill due to being a bit behind in himself,but at the same time and more so on gut instinct I dont see him as going to war horse where if its put upto him will he kuckle down and give you tons.

Peddlers on the other hand I see as a horse with speed not as speedy as
SS but bags of guts and stamina,he the type that wont go down without one hell of a fight that a gauauntee and he know he comes up the hill.We all know he much beter than lto, but I dont think hed ever beat ss at kemton over 2 miles in a small field, its not his scene, simple,Im slightly concerned that they planned his map to cheltenham wrong, they should have skipped Christmas and found a rece in early mid jan and then cheltenham, that would have given him plenty of time between racing.

In summary I dont have much between the 2 around cheltnham.
I like the way SS has been handled not to say going to kempton is a ideal prep.I certainly woulnt at this tage be claiming one will be far superior ove rthe other at cheltenham,Its not a 2 horse race and Ill look at others more closley at the time.

For now im leaning towards Sprinter Sacre as I just dont know were Peddler is going next and hes had a set back which might not see him at his best come March which would give Sprinter the edge.

newuser89

I also remember woolcombe folly won a race on the same card as master minded in a quicker time .
It happens obviously there was a stronger pace in the supreme last year

ste2010

newuser89 wrote: »

Forgot about galileos choice.i think he would beat Mullins horse on better ground than when he was second to him .sous le cieux didn't look very gd at leopardstown either ,I was there on the day and expected him to win it and he showed no speed at all

Ye It was like ruby was waiting for him to take off but it never happened,don't think clipping the last hurdle helped definitely can say hr wouldn't of won that race though..Dylan Ross was impressive all the same too..

I was reading an article by donn McLean on him they reckon SLC will go on better ground.

newuser89

I backed Dylan Ross that day but it looked like he didn't want to go past cash and go ,I think he might be one of them horses that doesn't enjoy hitting the front

ste2010

World hurdle - thousand stars e/w
I know big bucks will win...he can go in a treble.
but one day he will lose an when that day arrives I hope to have the winner :-) but until that day 2nd or 3rd will do for now

premierstone

newuser89 wrote: »

I also remember woolcombe folly won a race on the same card as master minded in a quicker time .
It happens obviously there was a stronger pace in the supreme last year

While im like baazaa on the Sprintre/Peddlers argument, Id just like to agree with this comment 100%, it annoys me when people say ''x race was faster than race y over the same distance'' So fcukin what it is completely irrelevant you are comparing apples and oranges tbh, if you want to analyse a race on the clock then you need sectionals, field size is also a factor to be considered.

newuser89

I think Mullins said during week he's goin champ hurdle,
I would rather see him in world hurdle,stays all day could give big bucks a gd race

baazzaa

premierstone wrote: »

While im like baazaa on the Sprintre/Peddlers argument, Id just like to agree with this comment 100%, it annoys me when people say ''x race was faster than race y over the same distance'' So fcukin what it is completely irrelevant you are comparing apples and oranges tbh, if you want to analyse a race on the clock then you need sectionals, field size is also a factor to be considered.

I agree comparing just the finish time is no good, it means feck all unless you consider all the other factors, strong early speed in a race can mean a slow finish and horses can be out on their backsides then which usually results in slow jumping too, you need sectionals to be more acurate, its not enough just to say one race was faster than another and come to a conclusion.

Cheltenham aint Thousands main target either its more Aintree, rather have a go at him back there than at cheltenham.

ste2010

premierstone wrote: »

newuser89 wrote: »

I also remember woolcombe folly won a race on the same card as master minded in a quicker time .
It happens obviously there was a stronger pace in the supreme last year

While im like baazaa on the Sprintre/Peddlers argument, Id just like to agree with this comment 100%, it annoys me when people say ''x race was faster than race y over the same distance'' So fcukin what it is completely irrelevant you are comparing apples and oranges tbh, if you want to analyse a race on the clock then you need sectionals, field size is also a factor to be considered.

Not completely irrelevant when it's compared to years and years of history with all factors included ...I.e. The faster time ever to be completed...ground is a comparison, pace set, sections, top speed within those sections, at what point in the rave were those sections hit and what speed were they traveling in each section before the closing section, how well the best horse was on the day, were there horse that underperformed, how many hurdles were clipped by the winner, the list is endless..it's the quickest of the past 10 years if not longer I think. All it is is another indicator along with all the other ones that don't answer the real question..who will win the next race

Hulk Hands

premierstone wrote: »

While im like baazaa on the Sprintre/Peddlers argument, Id just like to agree with this comment 100%, it annoys me when people say ''x race was faster than race y over the same distance'' So fcukin what it is completely irrelevant you are comparing apples and oranges tbh, if you want to analyse a race on the clock then you need sectionals, field size is also a factor to be considered.

Its completely relevant when you're talking about a horses cruising speed. The argument was the Peddlers Cross had a greater cruising speed than SS because he lived with the pace in a champion hurdle. Well it seems they went at a greater pace in the supreme, and SS traveled the best of all in that race, indicating a very high cruising speed.

I agree it's fairly irrelevant when saying that X is better over C&D than Y and will win because of quicker time.

Huntey

Hulk Hands wrote: »

indicating a very high cruising speed.

Cruising speed me arse

finbarrk

Huntey wrote: »

Cruising speed me arse

?

newuser89

finbarrk wrote: »

Huntey wrote: »

Cruising speed me arse

?

Mod edit:

<snip>

First and final warning: Please attack the post, not the poster.

hucklebuck

Has anyone heard anything about Samain?

He is one I would back if I knew what the plans were for him.

Hulk Hands

hucklebuck wrote: »

Has anyone heard anything about Samain?

He is one I would back if I knew what the plans were for him.

Funny, was thinking the same last week, and put a few quid on at 50's for the supreme because it's wide open. I'm guessing we would have found out if anything was amiss, and I seen him mentioned as a dark horse in a newspaper article last week. The fact that it's Mullins makes me less worried

hucklebuck

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Funny, was thinking the same last week, and put a few quid on at 50's for the supreme because it's wide open. I'm guessing we would have found out if anything was amiss, and I seen him mentioned as a dark horse in a newspaper article last week. The fact that it's Mullins makes me less worried

Where did you get 50's?

I had a suspicion if something was wrong with Fly, Samain might be thrown in but I think he wasn't put in the bumper as they did not want to rush him. Still not rushing him!!

Hulk Hands

hucklebuck wrote: »

Where did you get 50's?

That controversial firm we're discussing in another thread!

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Reading the racingpost yesterday there was a section on horse racing specials for 2012

One that stood out for me was Coral going 5/1 for Big Bucks to start odds against in the World Hurdle

First up people will shout "are you mad, he's 4/7 ante post". True, however the same was the case this year. Odds on at this stage and that was before Grand Crus blast on the scene in the Cleeve Hurdle. This year his opposition might include Thousand Stars, Oscar Whiskey among others. I'm confident evens or possibly odds on will be available on the day whether his SP stands up is a different matter

All in all 5/1 is too big IMO (seeing as he was available at odds against on the day the last 2 years in arguably weaker races). Pity it's with Coral as they won't take Euro bets (well didn't used to is this still the case?)

Owner has apparently confirmed that Oscar Whisky takes on Big Bucks

On the other hand it seems Willie will run Thousand Stars in the Champion Hurdle so not great news for this bet, maybe Coral did me a favour not laying me in full :rolleyes:

Hulk Hands

Just backed Un Atout for the bumper after Paddy Mullins says he's as good as anything he's ever sat on. Stole in and got 25's, now 13's on the machine.

Also backed another couple of Mullins horses, Ut de Sivola (12/1) for the truimph because I expect him to win today, and took big prices for small stakes on So Young for the champion hurdle (200/1) and world hurdle (30/1)

newuser89

Un atout is gigginstown horse I taught
They won't run there horses in the cheltenham bumper as they think it ruins them

Hulk Hands

Yeah, Gigginstown alright. Do they not? Didn't know that

I can always lay off for a profit I suppose