Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

premierstone · 14-02-2012 2:38pm

El Ninotorres wrote: »

What do people think of Darlans chances in the Supreme Novices? I've been hearing mixed reports

Entered in Newbury Friday, would definitely hold fire untill after that, hasnt beaten much but has won at chelttenham which is an advantage, thing I didnt like about him was that each of the last two races when challenged at the last didnt jump with any great conviction and I dont think you can get away with that in a supreme.

El Ninotorres · 14-02-2012 2:45pm

premierstone wrote: »

Entered in Newbury Friday, would definitely hold fire untill after that, hasnt beaten much but has won at chelttenham which is an advantage, thing I didnt like about him was that each of the last two races when challenged at the last didnt jump with any great conviction and I dont think you can get away with that in a supreme.

Thats true. The supreme is always a bit of a minefield TBH. Simonsig catches the eye and think he has every chance. Would have liked to have gotten some of the 33-1 available. Will be interesting to see how he runs tomorrow at Kelso, personally I think he will go off favourite for Supreme Novices

ste2010 · 14-02-2012 6:55pm

Is it too early to create a thread which pokes holes in the favorites of each race?

ste2010 · 14-02-2012 6:57pm

hucklebuck wrote: »

ste2010 wrote: »

I can't believe this is still going on!

I bet you can't believe it's not butter either.

When are you going to change your name to Miss Leading?:D

My lips are sealed from here on in ... Even with my grade A top secret information that come from the local school lollipop lady and the guy at the hotdog stand

ft9 · 14-02-2012 7:08pm

Just watched last years County Hurdle again. I still don't know how Get Me Out Of Here didn't win, what a race it was.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGDtY1CwaoM

Slattsy · 14-02-2012 9:46pm

ft9 wrote: »

Just watched last years County Hurdle again. I still don't know how Get Me Out Of Here didn't win, what a race it was.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGDtY1CwaoM

Thanks, you just made me cry !!

ft9 · 14-02-2012 9:57pm

Whys that? You were on Get Me Out Of Here?

sonnky · 14-02-2012 11:15pm

Galileos Choice for the supreme lads.. Running tomorrow at Fairyhouse and likely to be slashed if he wins!

Slattsy · 14-02-2012 11:41pm

ft9 wrote: »

Whys that? You were on Get Me Out Of Here?

Yeah I had 50 quid on the nose. Just had a funny feeling they were setting him up for Cheltenham so I got on a day or 2 before the race, think it got 12s so would have been a great pay out for me.

sq_forever · 15-02-2012 12:33am

Hey, enjoying the thread and only 4 weeks to go, so just going to add a my few thoughts!
Try not to back ante-post but indulged the other week! Backed 2 and the double e/w.

Peddlers cross for the arkel. Obvious enough but the 4/1 was too good. If he retains any of the guts and speed he shower in last years champ hurdle I believe he will win. I know Barry G thinks a lot of Sprinter Sacre but hope Peddlers experience will stand to him. 3/1 now but think he will go off joint Fav if not Fav.

Folsom Blue for the Albert Bartlett. 16/1. Saw him in thurles last month and was impressed. I know Beneffcient and Pickapocketortwo both pulled up but he won well and then went on to win a listed hurdle. With a few ahead of him in the betting going to the Neptune I couldn't resist. would love to see Conor O'Dwyer back in the winners enclosure. Think the 3m won't be a problem, not sure about the ground. By Old Vic, can anyone help me here? Also when to expect NRNB on all races?

Other unsubstantiated hunches! Gigginstown to be top owner. W Mullins top trainer. Ruby top jockey. Sizing Europe to destroy a small field. Hurrican Fly to piss it. Both odds-on.Thousand Stars to win the Ryanair hurdle (if only..). Big Bucks and Quevega to be be beaten:eek: only because all good things must come to an end. Will not be laying them tho.

TheMilkyPirate · 15-02-2012 12:37am

Think monksland is a great price for the neptune at 11/1, Fancy cinders and ashes e/w for the supreme too.

kiers47 · 15-02-2012 12:39am

sq_forever wrote: »

Thousand Stars to win the Ryanair hurdle (if only..).

World Hurdle?

kiers47 · 15-02-2012 12:46am

sonnky wrote: »

Galileos Choice for the supreme lads.. Running tomorrow at Fairyhouse and likely to be slashed if he wins!

Doubt his price will contract to much. It isnt the strongest race and hes currently only around 12s for the supreme. Seems about right even if he wins tomorrow.

Huntey · 15-02-2012 12:49am

sq_forever wrote: »

3/1 now but think he will go off joint Fav if not Fav.

He won't.

sq_forever wrote: »

Think the 3m won't be a problem, not sure about the ground. By Old Vic, can anyone help me here?

He definitely wants some ease in the ground to show his best form. Ran in two bumpers on sound enough surfaces but might find things a little too quick at this level.

sq_forever · 15-02-2012 1:13am

Huntey wrote: »

He won't.

He definitely wants some ease in the ground to show his best form. Ran in two bumpers on sound enough surfaces but might find things a little too quick at this level.

Cheers.Think he will stay and hope he gets his ground. Only a small bet at this stage.
There will be heaps of money for Peddlers.

Slattsy · 15-02-2012 11:09am

I think the 3/1 on PC is short enough right now myself. If SS wins on Friday, which he will now Que Card is out, then you can expect him to shorten slightly again.

The Arkle looks a tight race so the bookies might try push them out on the day and lay the first 2 or 3 in the betting.

hucklebuck · 15-02-2012 11:24am

Slattsy wrote: »

I think the 3/1 on PC is short enough right now myself. If SS wins on Friday, which he will now Que Card is out, then you can expect him to shorten slightly again.

The Arkle looks a tight race so the bookies might try push them out on the day and lay the first 2 or 3 in the betting.

I would be surprised if Sprinter Sacre shortens after the race, I expect some more money for Peddlers as Gary Nutting stuck him up as his Ante Post pick.

Did I imagine Al Ferof being withdrawn? He is still in B365 market.

hucklebuck · 15-02-2012 11:30am

Huntey wrote: »

Hopefully there is, I don't think people are stupid enough to back him into favourite though.

Is there a price you would consider too short to back Sprinter Sacre at?

As stated before I think Peddlers will be much better in Chelt as he looked lost going right last time and he tried to kill himself on the 1st or 2nd fence, not sure I would back him if he was shorter than 2/1.

I don't think the bookies would be willing to ease either on the day.

RichieLawlor · 15-02-2012 11:44am

Slattsy wrote: »

If SS wins on Friday, which he will now Que Card is out

Cue Card was never the biggest danger to Sprinter Sacre in the GS so his defection is a minor thing.

A novice on only his 3rd chase start against seasoned campaigners in an open Grade 2 cannot be considered banker material. Plenty have tried and failed no matter how good they turned out to be.

If SS is odds on this Friday I will be laying him big.

Slattsy · 15-02-2012 11:53am

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Slattsy wrote: »

If SS wins on Friday, which he will now Que Card is out

Cue Card was never the biggest danger to Sprinter Sacre in the GS so his defection is a minor thing.

A novice on only his 3rd chase start against seasoned campaigners in an open Grade 2 cannot be considered banker material. Plenty have tried and failed no matter how good they turned out to be.

If SS is odds on this Friday I will be laying him big.

Well he was 10/11 before CQ defected, so what odds will you give me?????

mdwexford · 15-02-2012 1:53pm

SS looks special.

I think he will destroy the Arkle, I wouldnt run him this close to it though which is a worry.

Huntey · 15-02-2012 2:10pm

newuser89 wrote: »

It's hardly stupid to back Peddlers into fav
He's not a big outsider he's 2nd fav

It is, he has plenty to find no matter what way you look at it.

<snip>

hucklebuck wrote: »

Is there a price you would consider too short to back Sprinter Sacre at?

As stated before I think Peddlers will be much better in Chelt as he looked lost going right last time and he tried to kill himself on the 1st or 2nd fence, not sure I would back him if he was shorter than 2/1.

I don't think the bookies would be willing to ease either on the day.

I have already stated I think PC will be a lot closer at Cheltenham, he was eased down after the second last when he had no chance. The point still stands though, he has plenty to find to win the Arkle.

I would have to re-analyse in depth but off the top of my head I would probably take everything until he hit evens.

UrbanSea · 15-02-2012 4:03pm

I think people would be crazy to back Peddlers' Cross into favouritism. Sprinter Sacre was so impressive the last day I was astounded.

People are making excuses to back Peddlers, and while they do that it'll keep Sprinter's price probably higher than it should be.

Kind of reminds me of Treasure Beach and Carlton House before the Irish Derby. People were making so many excuses for Carlton House after his third in the Derby, that people somehow let Treasure Beach go off at 9/2. Obviously Peddlers' Cross is bigger than SS in this case, but the excuses are continuing much like Stoute's horse, and I think he'll give him a good beating again

kiers47 · 15-02-2012 4:08pm

Has the Arkle suddenly become a 2 runner event?

Al Ferof for me. Right him off at your peril. Proven at cheltenham and a previous festival winner.

El Ninotorres · 15-02-2012 4:10pm

kiers47 wrote: »

Has the Arkle suddenly become a 2 runner event?

Al Ferof for me. Right him off at your peril. Proven at cheltenham and a previous festival winner.

I agree.. Its far from a two horse race. There are several horse in with a shout IMO.

premierstone · 15-02-2012 4:22pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

I think people would be crazy to back Peddlers' Cross into favouritism. Sprinter Sacre was so impressive the last day I was astounded.

People are making excuses to back Peddlers, and while they do that it'll keep Sprinter's price probably higher than it should be.

I agree that Sprinter Sacre deserves to be fav and imo will win but to completlety dismiss the notion that Peddlers Cross might be backed into favourtism is wrong. In the aftermath of theeir encounter Sprinter was installed 2/1 and Peddlers 4/1, its now 9/4 v 11/4 so from a two point margin to a halve point, why is it folly to think that that trend may continue??

UrbanSea · 15-02-2012 4:24pm

I never said it wouldn't happen (but I don't think it will), I just think people would be silly to put him into favourite ahead of SS

premierstone · 15-02-2012 4:25pm

kiers47 wrote: »

Has the Arkle suddenly become a 2 runner event?

Al Ferof for me. Right him off at your peril. Proven at cheltenham and a previous festival winner.

El Ninotorres wrote: »

I agree.. Its far from a two horse race. There are several horse in with a shout IMO.

I think its pretty much a two horse race tbh, yeah possibly Al Ferof may be a danger but after that its as poor in depth as the GC tbh.

UrbanSea · 15-02-2012 4:33pm

The hurdle race at Kelso today usually throws up a nice horse for Cheltenham.

I see Binocular has swerved the race today, but he is running in a beginners' chase at Clonmel tomorrow. An interesting move

mallachyrivers · 15-02-2012 4:35pm

Sizing Europe
West Brit
Big Bucks
Master Minded
Kauto Star
Quevega
Hurricane Fly
Garde Champetre

$100 on the accum @ 140/1!:cool:

Cheltenham Ante Post Pick

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