Risk of very warm and sunny weather next week

Harps · 09-10-2011 2:20pm

A mere 50mm according to the GFS, still, sounds about right that we get the worst of the rain again :rolleyes:

mike65 · 09-10-2011 2:22pm

Have to feel for the people of the north west.

Mothman · 09-10-2011 2:34pm

Another 20c+ here
3rd time this month...one more to equal June :cool:

JJJJNR · 09-10-2011 2:47pm

Was out running this morning at 6am and it was balmy! great weather! is it really going to turn cold soon ?

bb1234567 · 09-10-2011 3:06pm

how do you guys get all these fi charts for like mid october i'd love to be able to follow and post them and be like a real weather person:cool::p also what are cfs or gfs charts and how far out do they go? and are cfs and fi charts the same thing?

fizzycyst · 09-10-2011 6:42pm

Hi bb, the GFS stands for global forecast system, it is one of the many models used to predict the weather. Forecasters also use the ECMWF (European version), UKMO(UK version), and lots of others but I think these are the main ones used around here. The GFS can predict up to 384h from the present, but becomes unreliable the further out you go (hence the FI charts). Here's a link to a website that shows all the models.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=6

Mountainsandh · 09-10-2011 8:20pm

Not sure what I'm looking at, but this looks nice and blue ?

:) Is that what we're all looking for ? You know... wink wink nudge nudge.

Birdnuts · 09-10-2011 8:28pm

mike65 wrote: »

Have to feel for the people of the north west.

Yes - my connections there tell me its been like one long dreary autumn since the end of the Easter fine spell:(

fizzycyst · 09-10-2011 9:05pm

Mountainsandh wrote: »

Not sure what I'm looking at, but this looks nice and blue ? :) Is that what we're all looking for ? You know... wink wink nudge nudge.

On the meteociel website, click on the [ Temp. 850hPa ] above the charts, this shows the temp about 1000m up. At sea level it translates to about +8oC, so the chart you posted wouldn't bring any of the

;) nudge nudge.

Mountainsandh · 09-10-2011 9:19pm

Dammit

Thanks !

fizzycyst · 09-10-2011 9:22pm

For anyone interested:

Here's a really useful pdf someone posted a while ago, it's all about reading GFS charts

JanuarySnowstor · 09-10-2011 10:09pm

Balmy out there tonight, car was reading 16.5!!

So much for October snow :pac:

pauldry · 09-10-2011 10:52pm

living in Northwest and only 13mm of rain so far.

ho hum only 87 to go

Deep Easterly · 09-10-2011 11:40pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

is it really going to turn cold soon ?

Not for the next 5 to 7 days anyway although humidity levels should drop later on in the week and over next weekend.

JJJJNR · 10-10-2011 4:50pm

So not **-20c in a few weeks ** then.. phew!

kit3 · 10-10-2011 5:02pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

So not **-20c in a few weeks ** then.. phew!

with you on that one - absolutely loved the snow last year and want loads of it - but only from 1 November. Doing DCM like yourself - it will be hard enough without sliding around. After that - bring it on !

Mothman · 10-10-2011 11:11pm

Above 16C for 60 hours and counting....longest such period since August 2001!! :eek:

Some Octobers it scarcely reaches 16C. Just 3 days in Oct 2004

11pm and its 17C

davidsr20 · 10-10-2011 11:33pm

Why is this tread still running it's old news lol its raining for the last 2 weeks like!

Pangea · 10-10-2011 11:34pm

Somebody end the agony and lock this thread

.
Its title is nearly 3 weeks old.

mike65 · 10-10-2011 11:40pm

Still summer for some

davidsr20 · 10-10-2011 11:43pm

Pangea wrote: »

Somebody end the agony and lock this thread .
Its title is nearly 3 weeks old.

I agree,and as for it's still summer for some,where is it?

mike65 · 10-10-2011 11:49pm

Had some lovely warm bight days down here lately, not until late afternoon today admittedly but it all counts.

darkman2 · 11-10-2011 4:26am

I am pleased I got within .44 of a degree of my 27c;) Young Jedi's who challenge me (or others) should listen more and post less:D;)

I just started a thread about how cold it is going to be from the weekend. It will warm up again though before the weekend. We won't get to the dizzy heights of 26 or 27c but we should reach 20c in some places.

Su Campu · 11-10-2011 12:53pm

darkman2 wrote: »

I am pleased I got within .44 of a degree of my 27c;) Young Jedi's who challenge me (or others) should listen more and post less:D;)

I just started a thread about how cold it is going to be from the weekend. It will warm up again though before the weekend. We won't get to the dizzy heights of 26 or 27c but we should reach 20c in some places.

I'm sure 27 degrees was even topped in some areas with non-standard exposure, people's cars, etc., but when you say 27 °C then it only applies to official stations, in properly sited locations. Even Pheonix Park, with its 25.6 °C, is no longer what would be considered standard exposure, with the protection of high trees and a nearby building surrounding the station, no more than Gravesend in London with its 29.9 °C and its screen almost right up against a solid fence.

You can't change the goalposts after the event!

Elmer Blooker · 11-10-2011 1:16pm

Thats a good point about standard exposure
Heathrow Airport records very high temperatures but being one of the biggest airports in the world I presume its covered by acres of concrete.

a heat island effect?

Mothman · 11-10-2011 2:07pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

Why is this tread still running it's old news lol its raining for the last 2 weeks like!

Pangea wrote: »

Somebody end the agony and lock this thread .
Its title is nearly 3 weeks old.

Its a real IMBY thread

and I do know its awful in NW, but its 20.4C here.
4th day this month to exceed 20C.

Min last night 16.5C. Hasn't been below 16.3C for well in excess of 3 days and no measurable rain.

Lucreto · 11-10-2011 2:17pm

Mothman wrote: »

Its a real IMBY thread and I do know its awful in NW, but its 20.4C here.
4th day this month to exceed 20C.

Min last night 16.5C. Hasn't been below 16.3C for well in excess of 3 days and no measurable rain.

It is like we are living in a different country.

In the last 2 weeks we only received one day of 20c.

It is 16.2c now and overcast and wet. Last night it was 14.8c at 12am.

Su Campu · 11-10-2011 3:29pm

Mothman wrote: »

Its a real IMBY thread and I do know its awful in NW, but its 20.4C here.
4th day this month to exceed 20C.

Min last night 16.5C. Hasn't been below 16.3C for well in excess of 3 days and no measurable rain.

You're most likely getting some Föhn effect there, are you not?

Mothman · 11-10-2011 4:46pm

Su Campu wrote: »

You're most likely getting some Föhn effect there, are you not?

Certainly, same airmass but generally 2C higher than surrounding stations when cloudy and the bit of sunshine pushing temp up another 1-2C

I get Föhn effect here when winds are SW to W.

When Dublin got the 24C+ in the southerly temps were about 4C lower here. My max was 20.9C on 28th, all other days were below 19C

Pangea · 11-10-2011 6:13pm

Lucreto wrote: »

It is like we are living in a different country.

In the last 2 weeks we only received one day of 20c.

It is 16.2c now and overcast and wet. Last night it was 14.8c at 12am.

Still you would hardly call it very warm and sunny would you.
The Risk has well and truly gone.
The guests will be confused when they see risk of very warm weather next week beside a thread that says turner colder next weekend with frost

Regarding the difference in weather between your area and mine, it truly is amazing the differences in weather that we have on this island sometimes. Its been raining constantly here for days with mist and hill fog.

Risk of very warm and sunny weather next week

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