US Sports Thread (NBA, NCAA, MBL, NHL, NFL, etc.)

sboyle01

Stats point to an under game tomorrow night. It's 187 at the moment but hopefully this may rise a point or 2 before the game.

PunterAssist

USA NBA - Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (Game 4) - LeBron James Total Points Under 26 - 2.0 (Boylesports)

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

PunterAssist wrote: »

I think that line is exactly right. I doubt it would be a +EV bet.


USA NBA - Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (Game 4) - LeBron James Total Points Under 26 - 2.0 (Boylesports)

It's an interesting bet.

Miami need to win, in order to do so I think Le Bron will have to score 30+.

With the space the Spurs are giving him on the outside if he starts hitting those jumpers , he could rack up 20 by the half before San Antonio make adjustments.

PunterAssist

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

It's an interesting bet.

Miami need to win, in order to do so I think Le Bron will have to score 30+.

With the space the Spurs are giving him on the outside if he starts hitting those jumpers , he could rack up 20 by the half before San Antonio make adjustments.

He is not trying too many jumpers when someone else is open. Spurs are protecting the paint very well against him and since the start of the series he has been driving towards the basket, pulling the spurs defense in tight to him and laying off to the free man when spurs double team him.

I don't see that changing as Spurs are happy to let him lay off to the 3 point shooter as Miami are missing a lot of their 3 point shots. If they improve their conversion ratio the unders is shot however those points won't be going to James, it will be mainly Bosh from 3 pointers, Wade from the paint and even Anderson is driving the paint waiting for the layoff from James.

Its a combination of Spurs defense working well to keep James out however James is missing that half a yard at this stage of his career playing ~40 minutes a game and Duncan is doing well on the defensive rebounds.

It is more the reputation of James that has set the line so high rather than what he is actually doing on the court much the same as Gareth Bale in the second half of the season.

I think the fair line on James is 21.5 and I will be having the same bet in Game 5. I doubt I will be placing the bet in the event the series reaches Game 6, in fact I don't think I will bet at all on Game 6 and will be hoping the series reaches Game 7 to open the opportunity of a Miami HT/FT bet > 1.8

The second half of Game 3 was an anomaly which will hopefully increase the odds on Miami in a potential Game 7 however the mug punters will be on Miami as they are the 'name' team so I will be on the HT/FT bet as soon as the market is available.

An interesting stat is that Miami crush their opponents immediately following a loss as was the case in Game 2 but James still scored less than 20 pts in that game.

I expected the lines to be extremely sharp at this stage of the season but i can't figure out where the compilers came up with the line on James points unless people are blindly backing James overs much in the same way bettors do with Messi/Ronaldo/RVP.

Well done on your log, impressive reading.

PunterAssist

Actually just seen James is 28 years old. Seems to have been around longer than (2003 Cleveland) that but the season is clearly catching up to him.

tinodz

Rarely gamble on US Sports, pretty much never touch Ice Hockey, but I think the bookies have it wrong tonight in the NHL

Bruins Win @ 2.30

Not a tip. I could be VERY wrong here - but just giving it a go

MurDawg

This section isn't used half as much as it should be! With NFL back on and MLB in crunch time I think it's time to post some decent pick :P

Paddypower offering 5/2 treble for Colts,Bears and eagles all to win. All are favorites and should do the business.

Colts -1 at home seems a steal to me.

JONJO THE MISER

Over 40.5 pts tonight in the N.F.L Cincinnati v Pittsburgh.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Over 40.5 pts tonight in the N.F.L Cincinnati v Pittsburgh.

Interesting I was thinking of going Cinci -5.5 and over 40 but I just couldnt pull the trigger as I think the steelers will struggle to put up points.

Aj Green over 88.5 yards looks a steal.

Irish94

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman wrote: »

Interesting I was thinking of going Cinci -5.5 and over 40 but I just couldnt pull the trigger as I think the steelers will struggle to put up points.

Aj Green over 88.5 yards looks a steal.

I think the opposite, doing under 90.5 yards myself. Good luck if you do it.

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Irish94 wrote: »

I think the opposite, doing under 90.5 yards myself. Good luck if you do it.

His little dropsies killed me, two 40 yard drops one a certain TD meh! :D

manafana

Going try get up at least a blog a week for nfl now here.

Was pretty good last year getting most correct when breaking it down.

One interesting thing I noted with the spread at just over a td.

"Its interesting that per the blogs its 2001 since the last time the Cowboys were underdogs by at least a touchdown at home."

muletide

Anyone else piling in on Jacksonville +28 tonight. No way broncos can cover that spread. Seriously considering emptying my account for this one

manafana

muletide wrote: »

Anyone else piling in on Jacksonville +28 tonight. No way broncos can cover that spread. Seriously considering emptying my account for this one

I am playing overs will be close jags worse team in this century for points diff at this stage of season, broncos are 3rd best ever

JONJO THE MISER

muletide wrote: »

Anyone else piling in on Jacksonville +28 tonight. No way broncos can cover that spread. Seriously considering emptying my account for this one

Going the opposite, going with denver -26.5.

Juwwi

muletide wrote: »

Anyone else piling in on Jacksonville +28 tonight. No way broncos can cover that spread. Seriously considering emptying my account for this one

Would Jacksonville over 13 points not be a better bet?

From what l've seen Denver defense conceade alot of points and you'd imagine if Jacksonville stay whit in the handicap they will have to score some points.

muletide

muletide wrote: »

Anyone else piling in on Jacksonville +28 tonight. No way broncos can cover that spread. Seriously considering emptying my account for this one

So far so good- only issue is can't see Bronco's throwing out their 2nd strings in the 3rd & 4th!!

easy_as_easy

Was on New Orleans +1 last night, heart break. All over Indianapolis ML tonight in the NFL and Washington ML in the NHL.

Could be tempted to have Detroit Red Wings +1 in play now.

easy_as_easy

3-2 Detroit. 1.55 not a great price but winnings is winnings

jamesbondings

any tips on the bengals game lads? just to make it interesting like.

manafana

im for the bengals myself tonight, and marvin jones to get plenty yards tonight

Ribena74

Trail Blazer should be free money tonight against Toronto
4/5 +1.5 right now

Ribena74

Ribena74 wrote: »

Trail Blazer should be free money tonight against Toronto
4/5 +1.5 right now

Wins easily enough after overtime.
Memphis -2 10/11 for me in the next game.

Ribena74

Ribena74 wrote: »

Wins easily enough after overtime.
Memphis -2 10/11 for me in the next game.

2/2 with that win now, handy
Going for a small stake on a Lakers win.

Ribena74

3/3
Going to empty my account on:
Golden State -11.5 v Jazz 10/11

Got Golden State at -9 10/11

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Ribena74 wrote: »

3/3
Going to empty my account on:
Golden State -11.5 v Jazz 10/11

Got Golden State at -9 10/11

Nice catch. Would have been a tough loss to take on the -11.5

Ribena74

Yeah that would have been a big blow!
all the handicaps seem a bit big tonight not sure who to go with
small stake on Dallas win @ nuggets

manafana

College Football Action detailed 3 early bets here.

For the tv game on espn I really like the road team.

Michigan State 4/9 betvictor/ -6.5 1.95 pinnacle - A big ten rivalry and State travel to Northwestern here with one of the best defences in college football. For me Northwestern look to be in some decline even with home advantage and the cold weather I think Michigan will be too good in this one.

kryogen

Have a few bets tonight, one in each game in fact

I like the overs in the Magic/Hawks game
Also Toronto, GSW and the Wizards to cover the spreads

Have a couple of cross doubles also for small stakes and a slightly bigger single on the overs and on the Wizards.

Bit worried about the line shift in the Warriors game, think they should handle NO pretty comfortably, despite being on the road, and was happy to take on the 3 pt spread, now its a 1.5pt spread, the money is down anyway

kryogen

Came out of the night pretty much even, the Wizards game ended in a push, the overs came in, the Toronto bet was down and the Warriors bet was also down in heartbreaking fashion (them winning by 1 when the handicap is 1.5)