Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

Podge_irl

Tox56 wrote: »

Out of interest, is it due to size/developement or just flat out skill? Or both?

Both. They're huge men, but they also have an enormous pool of players at that age which helps. But their basic skills are just so much better then the likes of Ireland. The underage coaching there just seems so much better then here. Far too many big youngsters in Ireland rely far too much on their size at early age grade levels and just don't have develop all the skills they need when they're suddenly not bigger then everyone.

Anyway, NZ win 65-0 with a try at the death so beat the handicap.

P_1

Podge_irl wrote: »

Both. They're huge men, but they also have an enormous pool of players at that age which helps. But their basic skills are just so much better then the likes of Ireland. The underage coaching there just seems so much better then here. Far too many big youngsters in Ireland rely far too much on their size at early age grade levels and just don't have develop all the skills they need when they're suddenly not bigger then everyone.

Anyway, NZ win 65-0 with a try at the death so beat the handicap.

They missed the conversion so Samoa beat the handicap!!

FT Score 63-0

wp_rathead

63-0

beat handicap by 1
that was just cruel

Podge_irl

pithater1 wrote: »

They missed the conversion so Samoa beat the handicap!!

FT Score 63-0

whoops, I assumed it would go over. Handicap was only 62 though (good work PP!).

P_1

Podge_irl wrote: »

whoops, I assumed it would go over. Handicap was only 62 though (good work PP!).

Got it at 64

wp_rathead

lucky fecker Pit..

P_1

wprathead wrote: »

lucky fecker Pit..

Tell me about it..

Far too close for my liking, seems PP's rugby traders are on the ball today.

Now just need South Africa -21 and France -16 and I shall be a happy man

duckysauce

ireland + 2 now

duckysauce

Going for Tonga + 5 tomorrow in pnc , Samoa are missing alot of players and their rfu still has its head up its ass .

http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3893_7777479,00.html

http://samoarugbyunion.ws/

Jasyus didn't know they got rid of Alesana Tuilagi too :eek:

P_1

pithater1 wrote: »

Tell me about it..

Far too close for my liking, seems PP's rugby traders are on the ball today.

Now just need South Africa -21 and France -16 and I shall be a happy man

3/6 on the handicaps, just about broke even. Disgusted when the team I bet to beat the handicap goes on to lose the match.

Anyway onwards and upwards, what do ye reckon for tomorrow's matches?

Samoa v Tonga - PP have Samoa 5 point favourites, reckon they'll win but they won't cover the spread

Australia v Scotland - PP have Australia 14 point favourites, its forecast for heavy rain (and we all know what happened the last time Australia played in that weather). Reckon an Australia win but they won't cover the spread.

Japan v Fiji - PP have Japan as 2 point favourites - have to agree with them here. Fiji's union is in a mess as usual, reckon a win for Japan by over 3.

wp_rathead

Pure interest, no research or anything done:

Selection Selection Details Result
1
Rugby Union
International Matches
Australia v Scotland
5th of Jun 2012 10:30 am
Alternative Winning Margin
Australia by 11-20 @ 5/2
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
2
Rugby Union
Pacific Nations Cup
Japan v Fiji
5th of Jun 2012 11:10 am
Win Margin
Japan to win by 1 - 12 points @ 17/10
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
3
Rugby Union
Pacific Nations Cup
Samoa v Tonga
5th of Jun 2012 09:10 am
Win Margin
Samoa to win by 1 - 12 points @ 13/8
Pending

Stake and Return Details
Bet placed at 5th of Jun 2012 00:51 am Total Stake €1.00
Bet type Treble (To Win) Tax@Tax free 0
Number of lines 1 Total stake due €1.00
Stake per line €1.00 Freebets Redeemed €0.00
Channel Internet Total amount paid €1.00
Number of win lines -
Potential Returns €24.81

CatFromHue

Paddy Power have their handicaps up for the weekend games

Ireland +17
Wales +7
England +8

Wales +7 looks good to me. The Aussies beat them 24-18 in December and 21-18 in the RWC.

thomond2006

SA without Matfield, Botha, Brussow, Burger, du Preez and Jaque Fourie. I think England will stay within a score at least.

duckysauce

all the + handicaps including bloody fcking Toulon look good for an accum , Ireland normally play their best on the first test , hinges on Ross being fit .

Judgement Day

The +17 handicap for Ireland looks good but I reckon England may have something special in mind for the 'mighty' Boks so I'm going for England to win @ 5/2.

thomond2006

The SA - England match is in Durban, not at altitude. That is a disadvantage to the Boks.

duckysauce

Judgement Day wrote: »

The +17 handicap for Ireland looks good but I reckon England may have something special in mind for the 'mighty' Boks so I'm going for England to win @ 5/2.

Smit is backing them aswell
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,9817_7794578,00.html

PhatPiggins

Judgement Day wrote: »

The +17 handicap for Ireland looks good but I reckon England may have something special in mind for the 'mighty' Boks so I'm going for England to win @ 5/2.

I think Scotland have given us a glimpse of what to expect in the first round of games. Under prepared SH teams most of whom are in transition in terms of coaching and player turnover after the WC against 6N's teams who're much more battle ready.

I think England have a real chance of winning the first test.

Fishooks12

Counting on us having a decent opening and NZ being rusty so Ireland to lead by 1-5 points at half time is getting a go

5/1

CatFromHue

Fishooks12 wrote: »

Counting on us having a decent opening and NZ being rusty so Ireland to lead by 1-5 points at half time is getting a go

5/1

We were 31 points down at half time the last time we played in NZ against NZ

In the first test in 2006 though we were ahead at halftime.

duckysauce

SA u20 -41 v italy tomorrow . Boks will be out for blood tomorrow after the Irish shock , and england beat italy by 59 points .

CatFromHue

Samoa at +4 against Fiji on Saunday looks good to me. I think I read somewhere that some of Samoa's foreign players weren't available for the game against Tonga on Tuesday but will be for Fiji. Actually it was on the Samoan website:

"Other contract players will only be available after the Tonga test as their clubs are still going into the finals in the European League Championship, and the other 9 players will be joining the team after Tonga to play Fiji and others against Japan and Scotland in Apia.

The confirmed players as reported are: Census Johnston, Maurie Faasavalu, Fautua Otto, Tii Paulo, Paul Williams, Iosefa Tekori, Kane Thompson, James Johnston, and Kahn Fotualii."

Not a huge amount of certainty in that but it does look like a few of the European based players will be available.

Also while Samoa are the away team all the games are in Japan so there is no real away team as such. I don't know how this will feature in the IRB rankings though.

Fishooks12

Judgement Day wrote: »

The +17 handicap for Ireland looks good but I reckon England may have something special in mind for the 'mighty' Boks so I'm going for England to win @ 5/2.

Huge price considering how average SA are these days and how good England are getting

Worth a lump

totallegend

Judgement Day wrote: »

The +17 handicap for Ireland looks good but I reckon England may have something special in mind for the 'mighty' Boks so I'm going for England to win @ 5/2.

I think all three of the 'home' nations will beat the handicap on Saturday; Ireland were at +18* with Paddy Power last night with Wales +4 and England +7 - stuck a treble on it, my day's gambling could be over very early if Ireland go down in flames...

*In fairness, an 18-point handicap; how sh*t are we?

Judgement Day

England at 9/4 now and still look good value. Wales to win 6/4 , a few All Black try scorers - Dagg, Guildford, Carter, SBW, Savea and that's my lot.

Anybody think Toulon Jonny Wilkinson can pull it off against Toulouse at 8/5?

GerM

Outside bet but first try scorers are worth looking at. Irish players start at 18/1 and go out from there. Earls at 25/1, Heaslip at 45/1 look the most tempting. POM at 50/1 seems ridiculously long too given his mobility.

CoDy1

GerM wrote: »

Outside bet but first try scorers are worth looking at. Irish players start at 18/1 and go out from there. Earls at 25/1, Heaslip at 45/1 look the most tempting. POM at 50/1 seems ridiculously long too given his mobility.

Zebo has to get a fiver at 18/1 1st try scorer for the laugh.

Savea 4/1 to score 2 or more.

Gracelessly Tom

Judgement Day wrote: »

England at 9/4 now and still look good value. Wales to win 6/4 , a few All Black try scorers - Dagg, Guildford, Carter, SBW, Savea and that's my lot.

Anybody think Toulon Jonny Wilkinson can pull it off against Toulouse at 8/5?

I like the look of those. Think I'll do the two singles and a double. Might leave the Ireland one out of them, don't want my day's gambling ruined after getting up that early on a Saturday!:D

Defo having Savea anytime scorer, 2 or more and 3 or more.

As for Jonny, no chance!! Allez les Rouge et Noir!!!!

GerM

I'm a big fan of Savea but don't overlook Guildford who is in serious form currently too and scoring regularly. He's probably a more evasive runner although Savea is pure power once the ball is in his hands.

Gracelessly Tom

GerM wrote: »

I'm a big fan of Savea but don't overlook Guildford who is in serious form currently too and scoring regularly. He's probably a more evasive runner although Savea is pure power once the ball is in his hands.

I agree, but what has swayed me is that Savea seems to be able to break the tackle more than Guilford and Savea is up against Zebo. Sorry to any Zebo fans but I just don't rate his defence or his defensive positioning at all.