Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

thomond2006

Connacht 50/1 to win their HEC pool next season, seems a bit excessive!

Tox56

thomond2006 wrote: »

Connacht 50/1 to win their HEC pool next season, seems a bit excessive!

I think they would have to beat both Harlequins and Biarritz (and win both v Zebre, probably with a bonus point or two) at least to have a chance. They would probably have to do more than that, and I can't see it at all.

Having said that, might as well put a fiver on it..

pcworldisajoke

thomond2006 wrote: »

Connacht 50/1 to win their HEC pool next season, seems a bit excessive!

have had a fiver on it I do love my longshots.

liking a small interest on the 100/1 on the argies from dropkickrugby on the early outrights rugby championship betting preview

edit, not the four nations officially apparently

Judgement Day

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

have had a fiver on it I do love my longshots.

liking a small interest on the 100/1 on the argies from dropkickrugby on the early outrights rugby championship betting preview

edit, not the four nations officially apparently

I'd give you better odds than that. Argentina are going to be the whipping boys of this tournament and will be doing well to win a match.

pcworldisajoke

Judgement Day wrote: »

I'd give you better odds than that. Argentina are going to be the whipping boys of this tournament and will be doing well to win a match.

I dont know sir, there were some good points made in that preview, and while it is a longshot, i'd say they'll win at least one game, possibly two or three. It just seems too big a price, if theres a rake load of injuries on other teams, and they take points off each other...it's 50/1 elsewhere so some bookies think it has a better chance than 100/1...

Anyway I got a free bet on it so im happy enough :-)

CatFromHue

There are rumours that some of Argentina's main players won't be playing in the Four Nations so it's even harder to know how they'll get on.

Contepomi said he doesn't expect to play in it ( http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3821_7833911,00.html ).

Though I do expect them to be very competitive at home and hope they beat the Aussies at least.

duckysauce

CatFromHue wrote: »

There are rumours that some of Argentina's main players won't be playing in the Four Nations so it's even harder to know how they'll get on.

Contepomi said he doesn't expect to play in it ( http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3821_7833911,00.html ).

Though I do expect them to be very competitive at home and hope they beat the Aussies at least.

yep they will be very hard to beat at home, looking forward to this in August

pcworldisajoke

CatFromHue wrote: »

There are rumours that some of Argentina's main players won't be playing in the Four Nations so it's even harder to know how they'll get on.

Contepomi said he doesn't expect to play in it ( http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3821_7833911,00.html ).

Though I do expect them to be very competitive at home and hope they beat the Aussies at least.

there's an agreement in place though. It's just contepomi who wont be playing-i'd imagine there was an agreement there with himself and the ARU that he would lead the kids through June in return for no stink being kicked up that he didnt play in the championship. With two wins it worked out rather well too i'd say.

The rest of the players will all play I reckon. The only argument is they haven't had a rest, but the majority of them would have been playing those June tests without the rugby championship so they're on a rest since May pretty much.

Still, it's not 100/1 and 50/1 for nothing. Their opening fixtures will be the time to catch them, and dropkickrugby made a great point about South Africa in that preview having good fixtures. I reckon that'll be my main punt in a week or so as I'd imagine it'll come in a bit when people have a good look at things

Judgement Day

If you're a true believer, 'Captain Richie's' Crusaders to win the Super 15 Grand Final @ 11/4 looks tempting. Last Friday's unexpected win against the Chiefs has renewed my faith and I'll be giving it a lash.

CatFromHue

I'm not as sure about the Crusaders at the moment. Their opposition has fallen apart up front in their last two games, this could be due to the Crusaders being so good I dunno, but they only won one of those games. The stats for the scrum for the Hurricanes is the same as we had against England! Granted different day and different team and all that but the Crusaders lost that game! Then there was the overlap that SBW messed up at the end of the Chiefs game and they had got a pretty dodgy try that had definite crossing in it in against the Chiefs too.

Set pieces
Chiefs - Crusaders
7 won, 1 lost (87.5%) Scrums on own feed 5 won, 0 lost (100.0%)
6 won, 8 lost (42.9%) Lineouts on own throw 6 won, 1 lost (85.7%)

Set pieces
Crusaders - Hurricanes
9 won, 1 lost (90.0%) Scrums on own feed 3 won, 4 lost (42.9%)
10 won, 3 lost (76.9%) Lineouts on own throw 7 won, 3 lost (70.0%)

pcworldisajoke

CatFromHue wrote: »

I'm not as sure about the Crusaders at the moment. Their opposition has fallen apart up front in their last two games, this could be due to the Crusaders being so good I dunno, but they only won one of those games. The stats for the scrum for the Hurricanes is the same as we had against England! Granted different day and different team and all that but the Crusaders lost that game! Then there was the overlap that SBW messed up at the end of the Chiefs game and they had got a pretty dodgy try that had definite crossing in it in against the Chiefs too.

Set pieces
Chiefs - Crusaders
7 won, 1 lost (87.5%) Scrums on own feed 5 won, 0 lost (100.0%)
6 won, 8 lost (42.9%) Lineouts on own throw 6 won, 1 lost (85.7%)

Set pieces
Crusaders - Hurricanes
9 won, 1 lost (90.0%) Scrums on own feed 3 won, 4 lost (42.9%)
10 won, 3 lost (76.9%) Lineouts on own throw 7 won, 3 lost (70.0%)

true to form, im following this rugby lot again

small acca for me. RSS feeds are a wonderful thing, only discovered them last month

CatFromHue

Funnily enough I've gone the other way. I've gone for the Hurricanes at +4 and also have gone for them to win. They have Vito back and should have Jane back too and I think they've come into a bit of form.

PhatPiggins

CatFromHue wrote: »

Funnily enough I've gone the other way. I've gone for the Hurricanes at +4 and also have gone for them to win. They have Vito back and should have Jane back too and I think they've come into a bit of form.

+1 , the Chiefs look like they're rotating a bit as well.

I think the Crusaders could put 50 on the Force, not because the Saders are that wonderful but because the Force are awful. Force look like a team in transition just waiting for the season to end.

pcworldisajoke

PhatPiggins wrote: »

+1 , the Chiefs look like they're rotating a bit as well.

I think the Crusaders could put 50 on the Force, not because the Saders are that wonderful but because the Force are awful. Force look like a team in transition just waiting for the season to end.

you lads dont think that the motivation for home semi and final will push the Chiefs for a win?

on the other games regarding handicaps, the reds and brumbies do look good to beat the cap, seeing as they really need bonus points to achieve anything meaningful.

PhatPiggins

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

PhatPiggins wrote: »

+1 , the Chiefs look like they're rotating a bit as well.

I think the Crusaders could put 50 on the Force, not because the Saders are that wonderful but because the Force are awful. Force look like a team in transition just waiting for the season to end.

you lads dont think that the motivation for home semi and final will push the Chiefs for a win?

on the other games regarding handicaps, the reds and brumbies do look good to beat the cap, seeing as they really need bonus points to achieve anything meaningful.

I do but i think the canes are very useful team and i d rather be on them plus 5 then the chiefs outright.

The Brumbies should cover the spread with ease but reds/tahs games are always close and the reds have been doing a lot of the bare minimum of late

pcworldisajoke

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I do but i think the canes are very useful team and i d rather be on them plus 5 then the chiefs outright.

The Brumbies should cover the spread with ease but reds/tahs games are always close and the reds have been doing a lot of the bare minimum of late

agreed Phat, but they have been pulling bonus points in a few recent games as they said on dropkick. They know they HAVE to get a bonus point win, as the bulls and sharks will win anyway, they just have to hope they dont get a bonus (they should though).

i suppose the worry on the handicap is they might get a bonus point and then take it easy, or else just give up tries in order to lift and sieges and get back down the other end to keep trying for four tries.

Judgement Day

I reckon the Chiefs will beat Hurricanes as they will be smarting from last week's home defeat but I won't be touching it. My only bet (I think) will be on Crusaders -11 at Half Time @ 5/6 as they could ease off in the 2nd half and not make the -25 handicap - alternatively they could run riot but I'm not chancing it.

pcworldisajoke

Judgement Day wrote: »

I reckon the Chiefs will beat Hurricanes as they will be smarting from last week's home defeat but I won't be touching it. My only bet (I think) will be on Crusaders -11 at Half Time @ 5/6 as they could ease off in the 2nd half and not make the -25 handicap - alternatively they could run riot but I'm not chancing it.

i dunno man, it feels like a weekend for more than one punt. Alot of opportunity i reckon. It's rare enough when we know exactly what teams want, and more importantly, need.

Ive had a go on an acca of reds, brumbies and crusaders all to beat the cap aswell

duckysauce

Judgement Day wrote: »

I reckon the Chiefs will beat Hurricanes as they will be smarting from last week's home defeat but I won't be touching it. My only bet (I think) will be on Crusaders -11 at Half Time @ 5/6 as they could ease off in the 2nd half and not make the -25 handicap - alternatively they could run riot but I'm not chancing it.

going for the crusaders to run riot -25 , half the WF are injured - no coach - etc

WF will run riot so

duckysauce

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

Ive had a go on an acca of reds, brumbies and crusaders all to beat the cap aswell

6/1 nice

Judgement Day

Judgement Day wrote: »

I reckon the Chiefs will beat Hurricanes as they will be smarting from last week's home defeat but I won't be touching it. My only bet (I think) will be on Crusaders -11 at Half Time @ 5/6 as they could ease off in the 2nd half and not make the -25 handicap - alternatively they could run riot but I'm not chancing it.

A great finish and I can't help but feel that the TMO got it wrong for the final try - 28/25 to Hurricanes deep into injury time - glad I stayed away from the betting.

PhatPiggins

Judgement Day wrote: »

Judgement Day wrote: »

I reckon the Chiefs will beat Hurricanes as they will be smarting from last week's home defeat but I won't be touching it. My only bet (I think) will be on Crusaders -11 at Half Time @ 5/6 as they could ease off in the 2nd half and not make the -25 handicap - alternatively they could run riot but I'm not chancing it.

A great finish and I can't help but feel that the TMO got it wrong for the final try - 28/25 to Hurricanes deep into injury time - glad I stayed away from the betting.

It was a 50/50 call alright but the yellow card on the first half was bs so justice served.

pcworldisajoke

PhatPiggins wrote: »

It was a 50/50 call alright but the yellow card on the first half was bs so justice served.

agreed on the yellow, but it always seems like these marginal tmo decisions go the way of the Bookies - they would have had more money to lose had the chiefs beaten the cap, than if the Canes won. Not having a seletced memory here either, a few times in the six nations it happened too- always, TMO decisions that could be given either way, go the way of the the bookies least liabilities. Some lad was banging on abotu it on another forum there last year. I have to say, i'm slowly becoming converted....Something stinks a bit the way they always fall for the bookies.

PhatPiggins

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

PhatPiggins wrote: »

It was a 50/50 call alright but the yellow card on the first half was bs so justice served.

agreed on the yellow, but it always seems like these marginal tmo decisions go the way of the Bookies - they would have had more money to lose had the chiefs beaten the cap, than if the Canes won. Not having a seletced memory here either, a few times in the six nations it happened too- always, TMO decisions that could be given either way, go the way of the the bookies least liabilities. Some lad was banging on abotu it on another forum there last year. I have to say, i'm slowly becoming converted....Something stinks a bit the way they always fall for the bookies.

Not really one for the tinfoil hat stuff but i m fairly sure the over round was on the canes. The cap came from 5 to 2 which would suggest a fair amount of money was placed on the canes with the start.

pcworldisajoke

PhatPiggins wrote: »

Not really one for the tinfoil hat stuff but i m fairly sure the over round was on the canes. The cap came from 5 to 2 which would suggest a fair amount of money was placed on the canes with the start.

are you sure Phat? I thought the cap went from -2 to -3 in places for the Chiefs. "Tin foil hat stuff"- i like it ...If it is true though, i wouldnt see it as a conspiracy- just simple business really. Every industry tries backhanded stuff to increase the bottom line, why not the honourable, standup, pillars of the community bookies ?!

sock puppet

No bookie would want more money to be placed on one side of the handicap than the other. Ensuring that 50% of wagers are placed on each team is the whole purpose of having it.

sock puppet

sock puppet wrote: »

No bookie would want more money to be placed on one side of the handicap than the other. Ensuring that 50% of wagers are placed on each team is the whole purpose of having it.

It's not.

They set the line they believe is the right one. The liability doesnt affect it, unless the bookie believes that the market knows more than him and moves due to the pressure.

A balanced book is great, but the line is there to act as a Handicap of the game, not of the liability.

pcworldisajoke

sock puppet wrote: »

No bookie would want more money to be placed on one side of the handicap than the other. Ensuring that 50% of wagers are placed on each team is the whole purpose of having it.

that doesnt make alot of sense Sock puppet. The only way they make money then on that market is the draw. Seems a bit of waste of time for them if you're right. In fact, they may even lose if there's a few big bets on a handicap draw.

PhatPiggins

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

are you sure Phat? I thought the cap went from -2 to -3 in places for the Chiefs. "Tin foil hat stuff"- i like it ...If it is true though, i wouldnt see it as a conspiracy- just simple business really. Every industry tries backhanded stuff to increase the bottom line, why not the honourable, standup, pillars of the community bookies ?!

I know it started at -5 and went to - 2 by Thursday, I'll be honest I didn't look at the prices today.

There's plenty of conspiracy buffs who are remarkably absent minded when it comes to TMO decisions working their favour.

pcworldisajoke

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I know it started at -5 and went to - 2 by Thursday, I'll be honest I didn't look at the prices today.

There's plenty of conspiracy buffs who are remarkably absent minded when it comes to TMO decisions working their favour.

indeed. But its an assumption just like there's an assumption that people easily forget decisions that went their way.

It might be instructive for some soul to keep a track of these things- TMO decisions late in the game going the bookies way. I might email dropkickrugby and see if they'll do it for the season!