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Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

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    #182
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    maquiladora wrote: »
    It's actually usually a fairly good model.

    I agree Maq. I think the UKMO in general is one of the top models. Even in the days up to last weekend it was very staunch on central and southern areas missing the bulk of the rain on a frontal wave zone when the ECMWF, HIRLAM and the GFS showed some high rainfall totals in the same areas right up to 12 hours before hand. It proved the most correct in the end.

    I think one of the UKMO's strong points is its handling of secondary wave features moving up from the data sparse central Atlantic - it is just something I have noticed over the last couple of years.


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    #183
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    NAOO forecasts out now, upgrades all round:
    173829.gif

    173830.gif
    173831.gif

    Stronger winds all round I say!


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    #184
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    The NHC website is down at the moment.


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    #185
    H2UMrsRobinson
    Registered Users Posts: 763 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    maquiladora wrote: »
    UK Met Office "be aware" warning area is very wide, just goes to show how uncertain they feel the track is at the moment.

    wlp1kk.jpg

    Looks like a giant yellow blob swallowing the British Isles for brekkie.

    I've got a tingling in my special place for the coming few days...!


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    #186
    je55ie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭je55ie


    maquiladora wrote: »
    UK Met Office "be aware" warning area is very wide, just goes to show how uncertain they feel the track is at the moment.

    wlp1kk.jpg

    Does this mean the south west wont get anything or is it just because it's the UK Met office?


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    #187
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    cherryghost wrote: »
    NAOO forecasts out now, upgrades all round:


    Stronger winds all round I say!

    The track/cone is actually further away from Ireland now though.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/143753.shtml?gm_track#contents


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    #188
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    jessie37 wrote: »
    Does this mean the south west wont get anything or is it just because it's the UK Met office?

    The warning is just for NI & GB, they don't issue warnings for Ireland.


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    #189
    xi
    Registered Users Posts: 388 ✭✭xi


    web_irl_wind_2011091212.gif?h=1315576800000

    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp

    Looks like the worst of the wind will be between 12:00 and 15:00 Monday


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    #190
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    maquiladora wrote: »
    The track/cone is actually further away from Ireland now though.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/143753.shtml?gm_track#contents

    Maybe they interpreted it through the 06Z? Wait and see if 12Z delivers consistency


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    #191
    Zzippy
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,166 Mod ✭✭✭✭Zzippy


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    HAHA looks like the not so regulars are pouring back in on the sound of the word "storm" haaha :D.... *Opens the gate to the roller-coaster * :)

    My, how they grow up! :D


    Iancar29's second ever post on boards: ;)

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=58828030&postcount=939


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    #192
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Zzippy wrote: »
    My, how they grow up! :D


    Iancar29's second ever post on boards: ;)

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=58828030&postcount=939

    Hahahahahahaaha!!!

    MEMORIES! :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

    Its also true for this moment in time too! ..:(


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    #193
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Hahahahahahaaha!!!

    MEMORIES! :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

    Its also true for this moment in time too! ..:(

    c'mere

    Ya need a hug


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    #194
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Any chance of snow in Coleraine lads? :P


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    #195
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Any chance of snow in Coleraine lads? :P

    I can see it up the hill, I sent my mother up but I dunno where she is :pac:


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    #196
    rhonin
    Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭rhonin


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Any chance of snow in Coleraine lads? :P

    I hear there's 4 inches already. Blizzard conditions Sunday night :pac:


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    #197
    kindredspirit
    Registered Users Posts: 339 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    It'll take a lot more than this fart of a storm to panic us weshties. The only time we do panic is when we see the sun!

    Brilliant. Best post of the thread. :)

    https://coolwatergarden.com/



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    #198
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    I wonder why did ME say west and south coasts most at risk. No mention of NW or N.


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    #199
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Looking forward to seeing tonights runs! :)

    Some wanna start a comp thread for the extremes of the event? :)

    Off to work now! :(....

    Dont have too much fun without me ... :(


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    #200
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GFS rolling. Slightly further south of the 06Z position at 24 hours. Lets see what happens this time.


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    #201
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    It's been a while since I've been excited refreshing the 12Z rollout! Indeed it's slightly further south, but this weekends low is slightly further north, which might have an influence in how the storm moves as it approaches us.


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    #202
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    cherryghost wrote: »
    It's been a while since I've been excited refreshing the 12Z rollout! Indeed it's slightly further south, but this weekends low is slightly further north, which might have an influence in how the storm moves as it approaches us.

    0137_imz8.gif


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    #203
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    But slightly further north at 48 hours...


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    #204
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Looks like this is going to be a fish again. A very intense system though.

    Rtavn481.png


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    #205
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    12z painting dangerous picture for NW of Ireland.

    Low deepend to sub 955mb low by T60hrs.


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    #206
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Stronger storm at 60 hours.


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    #207
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    955? :eek: It's getting deeper! It's swung slightly more eastwards too albeit northwards too


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    #208
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    cherryghost wrote: »
    955? :eek: It's getting deeper! It's swung slightly more eastwards too albeit northwards too

    so a north east swing?!


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    #209
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,886 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    A near miss this time, but now a very dangerous system. Donegal should be worried. It looks as good as a hurricane to me when it comes close to our shore


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    #210
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Yesh. Extremely dangerous winds now in the northwest/north.
    173836.png


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    #211
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    At 72 hours its further northeast than the 06Z. Thats two runs in a row that has tracked it further away from Ireland.

    More intense than the 06Z though. Could be why it went further north.


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