Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

Tazio

snow ghost wrote: »

As dusk began to fall this evening I witnessed terrifying spectacle I have rarely encountered before – an ominous sign of impending doom – people everywhere were staring above them as a black dense cloud of tens of thousands of crows streamed from the coast inland. It was like a milky way of black crows; a crow highway that I thought would never end.

If the crows are fleeing, I think we could be in for a major storm that will probably cause widespread devastation.

Should have never started this thread... Sorry guys.....

Interesting ME update on their site....

Pangea

All eyes and ears to Forecast now in a minute RTE 1.

eddiem10

snow ghost wrote: »

As dusk began to fall this evening I witnessed terrifying spectacle I have rarely encountered before – an ominous sign of impending doom – people everywhere were staring above them as a black dense cloud of tens of thousands of crows streamed from the coast inland. It was like a milky way of black crows; a crow highway that I thought would never end.

If the crows are fleeing, I think we could be in for a major storm that will probably cause widespread devastation.

A murder of crows........:(

cherryghost

Aye even all the gulls along the Shannon in Athlone have completely disappeared today, they've been around all Summer

200motels

One flew over the crows nest!

Pangea

cherryghost

To be fair to ME it would have been easy to jump the gun and have it completely wrong come Monday. We're in reliable territory now and even if in the coming days it further twitches northwards, we're still in for severe gusts.

Hats off to Met Eireann imo

Harps

Pangea wrote: »

What were the highest gusts last year?
I think I remember seeing 120 or maybe 130 kmph on a met eireann forecast last year (mid November).
If top wind gusts are 130 it wont be anything I haven't seen before but maybe it will get stronger.

There was a 144km/hr gust in the storm back in May which was the biggest in the past year as far as I know

M.T. Cranium

Actually, the 18z (GFS) is yet to come out, I will be reviewing the 18z RGEM which goes 48h in a few minutes, then the 18z GFS should be out by around 11 p.m. there.

Whatever the ups or downs of recent guidance, those of you in Donegal are very likely to see gusts higher than last May and at least equal to last November's storm. The 925 mb output on the 12z GFS was showing 80 knot winds at hilltop level. We have to factor in the balance of track and intensity, a stronger storm somewhat further off the coast may compensate for that shift in track.

I would currently say 80-85 knot wind gusts at Belmullet and Malin Head from this event, 65 knots at Mace Head and Knock, and 52 at Valentia, Shannon, possibly 45-50 along south coast and Dublin, Casement. Other stations tend to be more sheltered than some locations where people live but a station like Mullingar which is not super well exposed might peak at 45 knots.

Thetonynator was telling me that he will start a contest soon so everyone can have a go at predicting the strongest wind gusts.

spideog7

So how does a 9am Monday morning arrival time in Shannon airport look?

John mac

spideog7 wrote: »

So how does a 9am Monday morning arrival time in Shannon airport look?

bumpy

fizzycyst

oops! 12z is what I probably should have said

snow ghost

Iancar29 wrote: »

Seriously?.... why not take a pic????????????

It wasn't the normal large bunch of crows getting ready to roost, they were moving en masse. Shifting their feathery asses out of here.

A pic would have been good but i didn't get a chance.

johngalway

Monday should be a good day for input to the Weather pictures section

pauldry

yup mite try a video if the power isnt out though the worst winds might be at night maybe and all youll see is my back door with crows flying everywhere (blown out of their beds)

Harps

Something I've just copped on to is that the storm last May was on my last day of college while Monday is my first day back for 4th year, strange coincidence!

A couple of pics from outside the exam hall in May, remains of a big billboard that crashed into the building and the ground littered with branches





Hopefully the damage isnt as bad as that day but the weather enthusiast in me still wants it to be as strong as possible!

martic

Posted this on here the last storm in may so hopefully if I get the chance will get one done for Katia. (will have the trampoline away for it so might not get the same effects lol)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKaoeNSj5gQ

JanuarySnowstor

It's a bit closer on the 18z again....

ninebeanrows

Marginal differences at 18z.

initially further south, then maybe further north!

Intensity bit less than 12z!!!!

dsmythy

UK Met Office warning.

ninebeanrows

We would need a 100 mile jog south now for this to cause sig damage to the capital.

If 18z is correct for an IMBY Dublin perspective. You would expect gusts to 55mph.

Min

I don't mind a storm once I don't lose power or roofs off buildings, which happened with the Christmas eve storm.
We reared turkeys and we had some hanging out in the shed as they were for the freezer, I will always remember the smell and my mother cleaning out turkeys on Christmas day as there was not much else to do...

ninebeanrows

Interesting discussion from the NHC

Regardless of its end position, this has been and will be a very interesting feature and is very uncommon in its occurence.

HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

DESPITE ITS HIGH LATITUDE LOCATION...KATIA HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE
RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND NHC AODT INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/33 KT. KATIA IS NOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP
MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE LARGE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. KATIA IS MOVING OVER
COOLER WATER AND IN 18-24 HOURS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCN.

KATIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 22C BY 12
HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT THAT TIME.
HOWEVER...THE LARGE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT WARM
UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF 40N LATITUDE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE...WHICH COULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION A LITTLE LONGER
THAN USUAL FOR SYSTEMS AT SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE. REGARDLESS...
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY
24 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MERGED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT AND BE OVER SSTS LESS THAN 20C. ALTHOUGH KATIA IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE FORCE BY 36 HOURS...THE LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN
STORM-FORCE WINDS WHEN IT APPROACHES THE BRITISH ISLES IN 3 DAYS.
INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BRITISH ISLES AND NORTHERN EUROPE
SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UKMET OFFICE AT
WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER/.

M.T. Cranium

18z RGEM continued earlier track and to 48h was 1 deg south of 18z GFS at each interval. Crosses 20W near 53N.

18z GFS is never known to be a definitive model run at this sort of time interval, so any changes on it need to be taken as bumps in the road.

The main unresolved question may be how the final stages of extratropical transition play out in terms of any possible squally frontal band for regions further south, but so far this continues to look like mainly a west to north coast event in terms of damaging wind potential.

Should be some awesome photo ops around Achill, Westport, Donegal Bay by mid-day with the huge waves rolling in.

ninebeanrows

Regardless of ex-Katias impact on the capital.

Exposed Northern and Northwestern areas should prepare for wind gusts 80mph or perhaps in extreme gusts up to 90mph. There will be frequent wind gusts above 65mph in the region.

Iancar29

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

18z RGEM continued earlier track and to 48h was 1 deg south of 18z GFS at each interval. Crosses 20W near 53N.

18z GFS is never known to be a definitive model run at this sort of time interval, so any changes on it need to be taken as bumps in the road.

The main unresolved question may be how the final stages of extratropical transition play out in terms of any possible squally frontal band for regions further south, but so far this continues to look like mainly a west to north coast event in terms of damaging wind potential.

Should be some awesome photo ops around Achill, Westport, Donegal Bay by mid-day with the huge waves rolling in.

I WANNA GOOO!!!

ninebeanrows

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

18z RGEM continued earlier track and to 48h was 1 deg south of 18z GFS at each interval. Crosses 20W near 53N.

18z GFS is never known to be a definitive model run at this sort of time interval, so any changes on it need to be taken as bumps in the road.

The main unresolved question may be how the final stages of extratropical transition play out in terms of any possible squally frontal band for regions further south, but so far this continues to look like mainly a west to north coast event in terms of damaging wind potential.

Should be some awesome photo ops around Achill, Westport, Donegal Bay by mid-day with the huge waves rolling in.

Where are you seeing GEM 18z, you view it on meteocentre? I cannot see an 18z bar ones for N America or Quebec. Thanks.

Pangea

lol

smallwonder

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Should be some awesome photo ops around Achill, Westport, Donegal Bay by mid-day with the huge waves rolling in.

I'm still provisionally booked to go surfing...you might spot me on one;)

plein de force

Pangea wrote: »

lol

tbh it was only a matter of time