Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

Joe Public

Aiel wrote: »

I'll be on Salthill Promenade Monday morning with my camera hoping to see decent wave action.Im not stupid so wont be taking too many risks to get "the shot":).

Put a tie on the camera just in case you get washed out:)

ninebeanrows

6z has a more intense ex-cane at 36hrs but this might mean it will curve away further to the north. We shall see.

maquiladora

Out to 42 hours on the 06Z, the storm looks stronger but further north.

Pangea

Latest from NHC

ninebeanrows

At this stage the storm is now less deep than the 0z! Lets see how it interacts with the jet in the next few frames.

ninebeanrows

Storm a bit further west and north here now.

Storm around 100 miles further WNW on this run. Saving much of Ireland.

- 6z really interacts ex-Katia with the jetstreak but fortunately or unfortunately it is out to our NW.

Storm winds for Donegal bay.

maquiladora

Further north and west at 60 hours.

gbee

Only a 30% chance now or at the time of the last update.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024915.shtml?tswind120?large#contents

M.T. Cranium

I don't regard that 06z run as being anything more than a very slight wrinkle as regards the potential for this storm ... trying to assess the storm from NHC guidance is really very approximate because we're dealing with a storm already well into transition so as the NHC always says, don't focus on the track, focus on the cone and what's happening in the cone. The right side of the cone becomes more like the centre of the cone during tropical storm life.

Also, the 06z run backs off slightly on the time aspect which could be pointing to an initialization error since the NHC at 09z still had the storm further ahead. I don't place as much faith in 06 and 18 global runs (only the GFS really has them, some others have regional 48h updates), and we need to compare run to run (00z to 00z) to diagnose real trends.

There are some other factors that have come to my attention since 09z. For one thing, there's a big pool of 27-30 C water around 45N 30W that is sitting in the path of the storm that may delay extratropical transition. It may also give the storm a jolt of energy around Sunday 00z. Also the storm has rapidly gone "annular" on satellite imagery. This may allow it to conserve more energy crossing relatively cool waters near Newfoundland.

I hope this storm does manage to avoid doing serious damage in Ireland, not rooting for it at all, but I have to say with the 120 knot jet stream and the rapid occlusion in the approach, my instincts say "intense storm" and until I see those factors declining on models, I am reluctant to downgrade.

Taking a 5-7 hour break now so will join in again around 12z model run time.

cherryghost

Aye yesterday's 06Z was also in a similar position before readjusting southeastwards. NOAA's update should be in the next 3 hours so lets see what they say.

Still looks like its going strong anyway :P

mojopolo

UK met office has issued a severe weather warning for Monday

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

Hooter23

Its on local radio already Hurricane to hit galway

maquiladora

Hooter23 wrote: »

Its on local radio already Hurricane to hit galway

So it begins...

Hooter23

maquiladora wrote: »

So it begins...

I Know lol:pac:

Pangea

In fairness they are not far wrong, sure Hurricane Irene wasnt a hurricane when it hit New York but most people called it one, lets have our moment in the spotlight :pac:

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

So it begins...

I SAID THIS THE OTHER DAY!!! hahaa.... WERS MY TENNER THAT I PUT DOWN?! :rolleyes:

munsterlegend

Pangea wrote: »

In fairness they are not far wrong, sure Hurricane Irene wasnt a hurricane when it hit New York but most people called it one, lets have our moment in the spotlight :pac:

yes and even the resident experts are stating this could be a bad one. however the media rarely put in the proviso that it may not happen in a headline - no money to be made from that kind of headline.

rhonin

Iancar29 wrote: »

I SAID THIS THE OTHER DAY!!! hahaa.... WERS MY TENNER THAT I PUT DOWN?! :rolleyes:

Now if it was going to hit Dublin you could have collected that tenner much earlier in the week

(joking!)

gbee

€25 each and discount for volume sales ...

maquiladora

06Z GFS ensembles (central Ireland) :



Interesting that the operational run (thick black line) had a higher pressure than the mean (thick red) with plenty of ensembles showing a lower pressure than the operational indicating a stronger system/closer track.

Iancar29

rhonin wrote: »

Iancar29 wrote: »

I SAID THIS THE OTHER DAY!!! hahaa.... WERS MY TENNER THAT I PUT DOWN?! :rolleyes:

Now if it was going to hit Dublin you could have collected that tenner much earlier in the week

(joking!)

Hahaha........ TRUE!!

munsterlegend

gbee wrote: »

€25 each and discount for volume sales ...

tempting fate gbee...

maquiladora

Latest HIRLAM has the storm further south than the GFS at 60 hours.

delw

Iancar29 wrote: »

I SAID THIS THE OTHER DAY!!! hahaa.... WERS MY TENNER THAT I PUT DOWN?! :rolleyes:

so did i,was only a matter of time

gbee

munsterlegend wrote: »

tempting fate gbee...

Not really as many will remember the Hurricane Tomas last year and the little squall that hit us prior to its arrival and while Hurricane Tomas was 3,000 miles away in Bermuda ~ an enterprising gent was in fact selling Tee Shirts with I survived Hurricane Tomas.

It's about the news hype an all media got it so wrong last year, many of us emailed the various news agencies telling them the hurricane was a week out yet ~ some changed their headlines but others did not and worse repeated it on the 'Sundays' ~ which sadly, a lot of the public believed and the storm they though was a hurricane was not and never had been a threat.

nacho libre

Pity the low centre couldn't track that bit closer to the North West of Ireland.
As it stands, based on that guidance, Erris Head, Achill Island, and Donegal Bay seem the places to be on Monday afternoon, if you like stormy weather!

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

Pity the low centre couldn't track that bit closer to the North West of Ireland.

Nacho have a look at what I posted above about the ensembles. The 06Z GFS had a higher pressure than the mean, there is a good chance the operational has the center too far north/too weak.

Min

On the BBC news weather, they said very strong, damaging and destructive winds for Monday.

Over a map of Britain and Ireland they had a shaded section, they didn't include the west of Ireland (but we know it is included) but basically all Ireland, Scotland, Wales, nothern and south western England are in the danger areas.
They spent some time on that part of the forecast considering how far out it is in general weather terms.

Pangea

Seen Michale fishs forecast video, wasn't impressed really.

leahyl

Pangea wrote: »

Seen Michale fishs forecast video, wasn't impressed really.

HHHMMM well this IS Michael Fish we're talking about - wouldn't have too much meas on him....:D