Ex Katia storm thread - TECHNICAL DISCUSSION, FORECASTS AND OBSERVATIONS ONLY!

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

HHHMMM well this IS Michael Fish we're talking about - wouldn't have too much meas on him....:D

you used to be a weather amateur like myself and now you can talk the talk!

munsterlegend

Pangea wrote: »

Seen Michale fishs forecast video, wasn't impressed really.

was he under or overplaying the storm potential?

Min

Pangea wrote: »

Seen Michale fishs forecast video, wasn't impressed really.

So it will be bad so.

leahyl

munsterlegend wrote: »

you used to be a weather amateur like myself and now you can talk the talk!

Hehe;) I wouldnt go that far now!:D

Pangea

Min wrote: »

So it will be bad so.

haha brillant.

munsterlegend wrote: »

was he under or overplaying the storm potential?

Em, underplaying I would say, didn't seem particularly interested in it although he said there could be storm force winds.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=796;sess=

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Hehe;) I wouldnt go that far now!:D

what's the leahyL storm forecast?

mickger844posts

Pangea wrote: »

haha brillant.



Em, underplaying I would say, didn't seem particularly interested in it although he said there could be storm force winds.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=796;sess=

I think that forecast was recorded yesterday so a bit out of date at this stage.

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

Em, underplaying I would say, didn't seem particularly interested in it although he said there could be storm force winds.

It's Michael Fish, not Joe Bastardi. :pac:

nacho libre

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2021377/Michael-Fish-exonerated-failing-predict-1987-hurricane-boss-Bill-Giles-takes-blame.html

cherryghost

There's so many different factors involved with this storm reaching our shores. It has the potential to be a damp squib or it has the potential to accelerate and keep its strength, albeit a lowly chance of about 1 in 5 and shortening. Either way I'm positive the entire country will experience some strong winds regardless of whether this system positions itself further north or south.

The most worrying thing about it is the foliage has only barely fallen off the trees yet, meaning tree damage could be high in the northwest/northern areas. Storms in November/Decemeber can be just as intense but create less damage due to this.

EDIT: The NOAA will have their latest forecast on the situation within the next half hour

maquiladora

UK Met Office "be aware" warning area is very wide, just goes to show how uncertain they feel the track is at the moment.

Ayla

Could anyone explain - based on maquiladora's chart just posted - why eastern Ireland & western England should be under "be aware" notice when the west coast of Ireland is not? Surely if it's coming through the west coast of Ireland would be the first (and presumably worst) hit?

I'm certainly not a scientist of this by any stretch, so I'm sure there's a logical explanation.

Btw, *very* interesting thread...quite addictive really

cherryghost

Ayla wrote: »

Could anyone explain - based on maquiladora's chart just posted - why eastern Ireland & western England should be under "be aware" notice when the west coast of Ireland is not? Surely if it's coming through the west coast of Ireland would be the first (and presumably worst) hit?

I'm certainly not a scientist of this by any stretch, so I'm sure there's a logical explanation.

Btw, *very* interesting thread...quite addictive really

Because its a UK forecast. They don't care much for the Irish :P

Iancar29

Ayla wrote: »

Could anyone explain - based on maquiladora's chart just posted - why eastern Ireland & western England should be under "be aware" notice when the west coast of Ireland is not? Surely if it's coming through the west coast of Ireland would be the first (and presumably worst) hit?

I'm certainly not a scientist of this by any stretch, so I'm sure there's a logical explanation.

Btw, *very* interesting thread...quite addictive really

Because the WHEST is fecked!! Haha ...

They don't want to put up a " Your Fecked" area cause it surely would coz panic

pauldry

According to the UKMO Connaught does not exist and Munster is only Cork.

Ask a British person where Roscommon is ?!!!

Watched pointless on BBC one day and no one knew.

Most of the other counties the British havent heard of are in Connaught too apart from Galway so therefore it mustnt exist or if it does stand in front of it while saying the weather!:)

Therefore the storm will only hit the part of Ireland that exists

maquiladora

Ayla wrote: »

Could anyone explain - based on maquiladora's chart just posted - why eastern Ireland & western England should be under "be aware" notice when the west coast of Ireland is not? Surely if it's coming through the west coast of Ireland would be the first (and presumably worst) hit?

I'm certainly not a scientist of this by any stretch, so I'm sure there's a logical explanation.

Btw, *very* interesting thread...quite addictive really

The warning is intended only for those in Northern Ireland & Britain. The Republic is not in their "jurisdiction". The rest of Ireland would be in that area if the UK Met Office was responsible for giving us weather warnings too.

Ayla

Yeah, I agree with (all!) of you there, but why is most of Ireland included then? It's not just Dublin that's included, but most of the entire island - other than Kerry/Mayo/etc.

Deep Easterly

Iancar29 wrote: »

Because the WHEST is fecked!! Haha ...

They don't want to put up a " Your Fecked" area cause it surely would coz panic

It'll take a lot more than this fart of a storm to panic us weshties. The only time we do panic is when we see the sun!

maquiladora

Ayla wrote: »

Yeah, I agree with (all!) of you there, but why is most of Ireland included then? It's not just Dublin that's included, but most of the entire island - other than Kerry/Mayo/etc.

It's just roughly covering the area from SW England up to NI, that path just happens to pass over some of the Republic of Ireland, it's not picking out those parts of Ireland for any particular reason.

TheMilkyPirate

The winds will be E/SE will they? So would that not mean that the east coast is more at risk hence the map

irish1967

Will there be a 'calm before the storm' before Ms Katia arrives?
I remember the weirdest of calms before a big storm in 1990(?). No wind no birds ... Nothing... really ominous feeling in the air.

maquiladora

baraca wrote: »

The winds will be E/SE will they? So would that not mean that the east coast is more at risk hence the map

West, Northwest and Northern coasts are most at risk to the higher winds unless there is a big change in the track from what the models are showing now.

Deep Easterly

baraca wrote: »

The winds will be E/SE will they? So would that not mean that the east coast is more at risk hence the map

It could well be based on nothing more than the latest UKMO model output which actually has the strongest winds running through the south and east of Ireland and into western UK:

TheMilkyPirate

maquiladora wrote: »

West, Northwest and Northern coasts are most at risk to the higher winds unless there is a big change in the track from what the models are showing now.

Gotcha.

Aiel

The amount of people coming into the shop where i work today and saying "theres a hurricane coming on Sunday" is funny.

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

It could well be based on nothing more than the latest UKMO model output....]

UKMO seems to be a bit of an outlier with this though. FAX chart looks different and GFS/ECM/GEM etc. look fairly different to what the UKMO is showing.

UKMO performed shockingly with Katia earlier in its life too, it was sending Katia into Cuba while the other models had it recurving east of Bermuda. :pac:

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

UKMO seems to be a bit of an outlier with this though. FAX chart looks different and GFS/ECM/GEM etc. look fairly different to what the UKMO is showing.

UKMO performed shockingly with Katia earlier in its life too, it was sending Katia into Cuba while the other models had it recurving east of Bermuda. :pac:

no wonder michael fish or his former boss got it wrong..

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

no wonder michael fish or his former boss got it wrong..

It's actually usually a fairly good model. If I remember right, for 2010 it was the most accurate of all the global models at the 120 hour mark for tropical cyclone forecasts. I saw the graph somewhere, can't remeber where though.

For some reason it just got it all wrong with Katia at times and the NHC dumped it several times in their forecast discussions.

munsterlegend

given the uk met office have a warning out already and we are geographically closer to katia and its remnants surely met eireann should have some sort of weather advisory in operation?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

given the uk met office have a warning out already and we are geographically closer to katia and its remnants surely met eireann should have some sort of weather advisory in operation?

Met Eireann don't usually issue warnings until closer to an event. I wouldn't expect to see anything until at least late Saturdy/early Sunday. If it ends up tracking even further north you might only see the normal gale warnings.