Winter 2011/2012

WolfeIRE

MET EIREANN Issued 11 December 2011
Weather Advisory
The weather in the coming week will be very windy for a lot of the time with some stormy episodes expected. At the moment, later Tuesday or Wednesday and Thursday night/Friday look to be especially at risk.
Some falls of sleet or snow will occur at times also especially in the North and West.
There is also the risk of some flooding especially along the Atlantic sea board where there will be very high seas and swell coinciding with high tides.

blackius

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

James Maddens update



Sunday - 11th December 2011
Public Weather Warning – Wind & Widespread Snow
As if the remnants of Hurricane Katia (an area of deep low pressure) in September was not bad enough, with estimated costs of £100m due to the damage it caused. There has now also been another area of deep low pressure, that also caused widespread disruption this week. It brought with it a top wind speed of 165 mph in the Cairngorms, and there was also heavy snow in Scotland, with certain parts of Northern England and Northern Ireland receiving some notable snowfall too. Many parts of the UK and Ireland are to yet again prepare for another bout of stormy and exceptionally windy weather, as we head into next week.
Here is what I issued on the 2nd September 2011 in my autumn update
There will a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and into winter
Did you notice how I included the word winter in that paragraph too?
I also stated in the winter update on the same date 2nd September 2011 that
Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the south
Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas I expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland
This is exactly how I see things developing in most, if not all, of the UK regions that I mentioned in my last update and above, as we progress through the middle part of next week and into next weekend.
(This is why I have stated since earlier this year “across many parts of the UK”).
Any further updates will be posted accordingly as a severe weather warning on Exacta Weather, it is also advisable to play close attention to your regional and local weather forecasts.
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

This is utter rubbish to me.
Basically he is describing last weeks weather and that wasn't snowmageddon.
You'd think from his earlier updates thats what we were heading into but of course he was wrong and the above is couched in language to allow him an escape route if it snows in scotland and trans pennine routes and the hilly parts of ulster.
I wish this guy would try not to be so sensationalist and call it like it is over the next 10 days or so.
Normal winter.
Actually I don't care which is the attitude the rest of you should take.

Kippure

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Mark Vogan has followed suit

"I believe after these two storm pass through this week.. the whitening of the British landscape begins and ends the week between Christmas and New Year, then comes the blocking over Greenland and the cold comes crashing down."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BusKj9FqhUw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXHvgD2sFa8&feature=related

This is a great in depth look into why we are getting these storms by Mark Vogan. Very good for newbies.

And


http://www.youtube.com/user/MrMarkVogan#p/u/0/5VEVxvaVokI

"All hell will be breaking loose"....lmao

davidsr20

Has mt s predictions stayed the same for a cold snowy jan?

Kippure

davidsr20 wrote: »

Has mt s predictions stayed the same for a cold snowy jan?

AfaiK Mt is going for cold in January. He doesnt change his forecast.:)

faktisperminute

Kippure wrote: »

AfaiK Mt is going for cold in January. He doesnt change his forecast.:)

MT SAYS MT KNOWS.

M.T. Cranium

Things seem to be on track so far, with the strong zonal flow across the Atlantic, mild weather in eastern North America, and an extensive circumpolar vortex.

So it is true to say that I am still predicting the same evolution to blocking and easterly flow in January. This may go through several twists and turns between the end of this windy period, at some point I would expect to see mild blocking as a precursor to a more dramatic blocking pattern that may involve retrogression (westward shifting of large-scale features) in the new year.

So basically it's looking to me like mid to late January and first few days of February may be the coldest portion of this winter.

The other logical outcome, I think, would be mild/dry which could result from the pattern we see now degrading to featureless low-energy dross that will close down the forum and have people looking for a new interest. So we don't want that. :eek:

200motels

Kippure wrote: »

Its something that the Models have been hinting at for some time. Then they just go to there default zonelity crazy. The models have been playing around with the idea of high pressure taking a hold, mid atlantic and linking with the greenie. The rest will be history....

I think you could be on the ball. I think the two highs will merge and bring very cold weather to our shores.

justy182

Iwas just watching Vogans updates. As the second low moves across Scotland it brings E and NE winds and prediction of significant snow. Would this be possible for parts of Ireland too, particularly N Ireland as the system moves away?

Lord Abernathy

Let's face it the science of metrology was invented to make astrologists look good. I took Michael Fish's advice and set of in a yacht for Cornwall that night, just made Penzance harbour.

thetonynator

Lord Abernathy wrote: »

Let's face it the science of metrology was invented to make astrologists look good. I took Michael Fish's advice and set of in a yacht for Cornwall that night, just made Penzance harbour.

Troll Rule No.1: Mention Michael Fish in your first post on the weather forum.

:pac:

Lord Abernathy

thetonynator wrote: »

Troll Rule No.1: Mention Michael Fish in your first post on the weather forum.

:pac:

Perhaps my first post should have discussed my passion for the dry adiabatic lapse rate.

thetonynator

Lord Abernathy wrote: »

Perhaps my first post should have discussed my passion for the dry adiabatic lapse rate.

The vast majority of people seeking to annoy others here end up bringing up Michael Fish at some point . . .:P

Kippure

200motels wrote: »

I think you could be on the ball. I think the two highs will merge and bring very cold weather to our shores.

Hopefully!

davidsr20

Kippure wrote: »

Hopefully!

And hopefully some decent snow too.

WolfeIRE

UKMO
Monday 12 December Published at 10:00
Monthly Outlook
Summary
Winter is well and truly with us.

Winds of well over 100 mph affected a large swathe of Scotland last Thursday, causing widespread damage and disruption. After a week that brought the most ferocious storm the UK has seen since 2005, we look set for another week of wintry and at times, stormy weather.

Further prolonged spells of wet, windy and wintry weather are expected this week. Whilst winds will be very strong on Tuesday, it looks like the wind will be at its most damaging later on Thursday across northern parts.
Monday 12 December—Sunday 18 December
Showery and windy, with storms thrown in!!

A bright and frosty start for most places on Monday although there will be a scattering of showers for western parts. Later in the day cloud will thicken from the southwest. Overnight into Tuesday there will be some rain, heavy in places, with severe southwesterly gales at times, particularly along the south coasts of England.

On Tuesday rain and hill snow will tend to linger across Scotland for much of the day. Further to the south, there will be a strong westerly winds with blustery, wintry showers.

Winds may reach gale or severe gale force across Northern Ireland and northern parts of England and Wales. A similarly showery day is expected on Wednesday but with lighter winds. A ridge of high pressure will lead to a quieter day on Thursday.

The overnight period into Friday morning looks set to bring the most significant period of weather for the week. At this stage it looks as if a rapidly deepening area of low pressure will sweep in from the Atlantic to bring potentially damaging west to southwesterly storm force winds to many areas of the UK, although the strongest winds look most likely to affect northern areas.

This system will also bring prolonged periods of rainfall, that could fall as snow on some of the higher ground in Scotland for a time. Later on Friday it looks as if the winds will begin to abate a little, with the rainfall giving way to a wintry mix of showers that will last into the weekend.

Temperatures will stay around average for the time of year but the frequently strong winds will make it feel bitterly cold at times. Despite the strength of the wind there will be a good chance of frost on most nights particularly for rural parts.

All in all, an eventful week of weather ahead!
Monday 19 December—Sunday 25 December
Staying unsettled into the festive period.

The changeable and generally unsettled weather pattern is set to continue into the Christmas weekend, with further periods of wind and rain.

Temperatures will not differ greatly from what is expected for the time of year, though it might be milder across the south at times.

Showers and rain are expected to be more prevalent across the north, with drier conditions across the south of England compared to average. Overall, most places should receive average amounts of rainfall for the time of year.

There will be more in the way of sunshine across northern part, with skies being a little cloudier to the south.

At this stage, a white Christmas can't be ruled out across some northwestern parts of the UK but it looks less likley in the south. Watch this space!
Monday 26 December—Sunday 8 January
Wet and windy start to the New Year.

Low pressure is expected to remain dominant across the UK, with rain, wind and generally unsettled conditions for most places. It also looks set to be milder than expected for the time of year for all places.

WolfeIRE

This time last year, the thaw from the first cold outbreak was almost complete with the exception of high ground in the E/SE and W.


MT in his forecast for 12 December indicated the next big freeze was on the way: "Winter is making a comeback, in stages. At first, it will be a trend to colder nights and longer morning frosts. But by Thursday, a more severe arctic chill will descend from up around the polar regions between Greenland and Norway. Snow is likely to accompany this much colder air mass. "

mcriot29

Looks like we may see some snow this week,anyone think this big storm thru could give us snow , looking like vogans forecast may work out correct for him .

tylercollins

@wolfire

Is this you on facebook? If not, someone lurking on the boards is copying your posts lol

leahyl

tylercollins wrote: »

@wolfire

Is this you on facebook? If not, someone lurking on the boards is copying your posts lol

You mean you don't know who it is??!!:D

tylercollins

I don't no. Who is it?

WolfeIRE

tylercollins wrote: »

@wolfire

Is this you on facebook? If not, someone lurking on the boards is copying your posts lol

Nope. Not me Tyler. 'Tis the young storm chasing lad from Finglas. You know the lad...drives into twisters and has a dog that loves snow more than him!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

And some input at times from me

WolfeIRE

t|nt|n wrote: »

And some input at times from me

Good on you tntn and iancar

Knowing our weather, I am sure the page will be popular in summer too.

mcriot29

Game on looks like we could have a big freeze start of jan
Joe b has said this
Stratwarm event starting in Siberia in about 10 days similar to set up for 1984-1985 winter, but is a 2-3 week precursor to major Us cold


I agree with joe as i said a few weeks back, 1984 type event could be on the cards

only one

mcriot29 wrote: »

Game on looks like we could have a big freeze start of jan
Joe b has said this
Stratwarm event starting in Siberia in about 10 days similar to set up for 1984-1985 winter, but is a 2-3 week precursor to major Us cold


I agree with joe as i said a few weeks back, 1984 type event could be on the cards

What was 1984 winter like?

mcriot29

Game on looks like we could have a big freeze start of jan
Joe b has said this
Stratwarm event starting in Siberia in about 10 days similar to set up for 1984-1985 winter, but is a 2-3 week precursor to major Us cold


I agree with joe as i said a few weeks back, 1984 type event could be on the cards
Heres what 84 85 winter was
1984-85: Very cold and snowy, especially in Southern England. My parents also go on about this one, as they lived in Hampshire at the time, and my brother was born. It was a very cold winter. Early January, there was snow in Eastern England. Mid January, East Anglia and Kent getting the goods, with 6 inches falling here. Mid January, South West England and South Wales (yippee!). Late January seeing snow in Scotland, and the prone spots, such as Aviemore, getting 2ft of level snow, Northern Britain as a whole affected though. Mid February, Southern England, 6-12 inches, substantial drifting taking place. 29th March gave Scotland snow. A memorable year. Snowy.

WolfeIRE

mcriot29 wrote: »

Looking like rain and more rain from sunday onwards and into the next few weeks more rain.Looks like marks prediction is going to fail.
The AO staying very high right up past xmas day ,looks like no cold spell at start of jan 2012 either.

You thought otherwise on Friday.

mcriot29

WolfeIRE wrote: »

You thought otherwise on Friday.

Yes as i was lookong at 2week ao index, job b has access to 30 day ao charts
Also i said weeks ago we could have 84 85 winter
Ao wont drop till new year

Speak Now

mcriot29 wrote: »

Game on looks like we could have a big freeze start of jan
Joe b has said this
Stratwarm event starting in Siberia in about 10 days similar to set up for 1984-1985 winter, but is a 2-3 week precursor to major Us cold


I agree with joe as i said a few weeks back, 1984 type event could be on the cards
Heres what 84 85 winter was
1984-85: Very cold and snowy, especially in Southern England. My parents also go on about this one, as they lived in Hampshire at the time, and my brother was born. It was a very cold winter. Early January, there was snow in Eastern England. Mid January, East Anglia and Kent getting the goods, with 6 inches falling here. Mid January, South West England and South Wales (yippee!). Late January seeing snow in Scotland, and the prone spots, such as Aviemore, getting 2ft of level snow, Northern Britain as a whole affected though. Mid February, Southern England, 6-12 inches, substantial drifting taking place. 29th March gave Scotland snow. A memorable year. Snowy.

Bah Met Eireann archives only go back to April 1986 but i dont recall 1985 being particularly snowy.

This should have delivered from a continental feed.



Then a brief Northerly may have



This one would have done for eastern Britain but probably not us



And Scotland end of March



Looking at the old charts i'd say it would have been a frustarting winter for much of Ireland with so much cold about. Not as painful as February 87 though. Dry continental easterly almost the whole month