Winter 2011/2012

Caff Caff

Piers said yesterday that he believes there are severe blizzards that will involve thundersnow. So, bigger hits are coming down the line for Scotland and Britain & Ireland as a whole he says.

I sure hope so...

Dear Santa,

Any chance of a snow machine instead of a surprise?

Thanks

C

mcriot29

Snowing now in shetland view cam below,
Just press play also wait as the cam moves around
http://visit.shetland.org/lerwick-town-centre-webcam

jo06555

Nothing new happening for snow in Ireland soon so

konman

since i only found the CFS about 10 days ago thanks to M.T i have been checking it every day since and last few runs are showing an easterly or north easterly from mid january with -6 to - 10 uppers (correct me if im wrong please) to the end of the run. I know its FI but theres a trend starting to show.

Redsunset

The November AMO index goes negative, first time since 1996

This is the first time the November value has been negative since about 1996. It appears the down cycle has started. This portends a cooler period, especially winters.

More here
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/09/the-november-amo-index-goes-negative-first-time-since-1996/

PurpleSt4in

Most of my friends don't actually want snow because of the disruptions it causes

Great to see there's others here who share my snow fetish

Wild Bill

Just when we were writing the Winter off the AO starts to plummet!

:cool:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Wild Bill wrote: »

Just when we were writing the Winter off the AO starts to plummet!

:cool:

Just sayin, MT said Jan

ffarrell7

All I could see was lots of rain and more rain in the Shetlands..nothing else

bb1234567

Wild Bill wrote: »

Just when we were writing the Winter off the AO starts to plummet!

:cool:

seriously?

JJJJNR

Its snowing in rathdrum, very light mcflurries.

derekon

mcriot29 wrote: »

Looking like rain and more rain from sunday onwards and into the next few weeks more rain.Looks like marks prediction is going to fail.
The AO staying very high right up past xmas day ,looks like no cold spell at start of jan 2012 either.

Yeah I think you are right, lets totally write off our chances of snow this year. That seems to be the tone of most of your posts - mcriot29, would you be what you would call a troll ? Your posts seem to be about inciting a reaction and maybe in this case you have succeeded !

D

Chucky Norris

konman wrote: »

since i only found the CFS about 10 days ago thanks to M.T i have been checking it every day since and last few runs are showing an easterly or north easterly from mid january with -6 to - 10 uppers (correct me if im wrong please) to the end of the run. I know its FI but theres a trend starting to show.

lets hope :D

blackius

konman wrote: »

since i only found the CFS about 10 days ago thanks to M.T i have been checking it every day since and last few runs are showing an easterly or north easterly from mid january with -6 to - 10 uppers (correct me if im wrong please) to the end of the run. I know its FI but theres a trend starting to show.

Yes but it's important to note,thats only telling you what could happen.
What actually happens could be entirely different.


We are an island jutting out into a very mild ocean remember.

WolfeIRE

AO trending in the right direction. A negative (below 0) AO favours a weaker polar vortex and blocking patterns i.e. a cold E/NE airflow is much more likely than it is when the AO is positive


The GEFS ensemble keeps us in a cool setup up to 21 Dec. It signals a rise in temperatures in the days leading up to Christmas but this is all subject to change, as is the AO of course. Either way, those who like colder weather are in a better place today than they were a few days ago when AO was heading toward +5 and the GEFS ensemble was trending toward much milder weather for the coming week.


Regarding the models, the GEFS keeps us in the same cold, mild, cold, mild setup of recent weeks with one difference. The milder interludes are not as prolonged as they have been during the past fortnight.

The ECM is much the same other than the colder interludes are a little colder than those shown in the GEFS.

The UKMO is in line with the ECM.

All models point to two storms (Mon/Tue and next Friday). The latter is looking more powerful at this stage


Anyone wishing to view the models can do so here:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess
or
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx
or
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

A guide on how to read models can be found here
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056447334

NIALL D

whats the story with snow in scandinavia with the last few days ?
i remember someone saying about a week ago that there was a very small amout of snow there ?
was watching sky news and the sayin they will be snow in scandinavia next week after these low pressure systems pass over us... i presume the more snow over there means better for us if we get a decent easterly ?

WolfeIRE

The colder and more entrenched the pool of air is over Continental Europe, the better it is for the UK and Ireland if and when a E/NE airflow is established.

Tuttsy

What does the sudden dip in temperature over the last few days mean for the chances of a White Christmas. I'm not a weather expert so if you could keep the terms simple it would be appreciated

Kippure

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krVpTz38TuM&feature=player_embedded


Interesting. High pressure trying to build in the atlantic linking with a greenland high and high pressure to our west.

pistolpetes11

Will it keep going down or go back up again like the 10 and 14 day forecast is showing ?

BLIZZARD7

Tuttsy wrote: »

What does the sudden dip in temperature over the last few days mean for the chances of a White Christmas. I'm not a weather expert so if you could keep the terms simple it would be appreciated

To put it simply, the current weather has no impact at all on our weather at christmas.





Dan :cool:

mrweatherman

can anyone give me a good honest and decent answer is there any risk of real cold weather or snow around christmas week. travelling from cork to dublin and dont want to get caught like last year

mrweatherman

im not a weather expert but can someone have a look at this link http://www.wxrisk.com/ and let me know what you think

nacho libre

mrweatherman wrote: »

can anyone give me a good honest and decent answer is there any risk of real cold weather or snow around christmas week. travelling from cork to dublin and dont want to get caught like last year

it looks unlikely at this stage

however you should follow this thread to keep up to date:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=75923810&postcount=2312

WolfeIRE

Simon Keeling of weatheronline.co.uk always provides an insightful analyses of the models. He tends to talk about possible scenarios. Always a wise thing to do considering the unpredictable nature of models beyond 4-5 days.

He looks ahead to Christmas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krVpTz38TuM

naughto

if i was a betting man what would the odds be of seeing snow in december??

thetonynator

naughto wrote: »

if i was a betting man what would the odds be of seeing snow in december??

Depends where you live, many have seen snow already.

naughto

the west/castlebar

thetonynator

Well if you're near sea level no sign of anything significant over the next week or two. After that, who knows?!

faktisperminute

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Simon Keeling of weatheronline.co.uk always provides an insightful analyses of the models. He tends to talk about possible scenarios. Always a wise thing to do considering the unpredictable nature of models beyond 4-5 days.

He looks ahead to Christmas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=krVpTz38TuM

wohh! so saturday and wensday is our hope! (Saturday stands more chance for widespread wintry showers)

Also easterly on Christmas eve ? not too bad if it come out ! but its going to be dry