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Winter 2011/2012

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,978 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    This morning the F1 chart for + 384 temps showed cold then they updated and it showed mild and now its showing cold again. Lets face it they don't know. One parameter can be tweaked by 1% and everything changes when projected that far out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    mike65 wrote: »
    This morning the F1 chart for + 384 temps showed cold then they updated and it showed mild and now its showing cold again. Lets face it they don't know. One parameter can be tweaked by 1% and everything changes when projected that far out.

    statistical bias can play a part too. this is why in really cold weather, the further out in FI, the models might show a return to milder weather almost by default.


  • Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    I really can't believe how mild it is out,this has to be well obove average November temps,I'm getting really sick of this mild weather,I love the cold and alway did :D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Yes they mentioned that about the Geese on that BBC 2 show about winter, but its only 1 chart and in FI, hopefully its a trend and it will continue, but dont get to excited yet:)

    It all depends on the Donegal Postman now, his call! :cool:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    km79 wrote: »
    Nicest stretch of weather that we have had in AGES

    The best weather we get in the west is nearly always via a southeast/east continental flow, hence my username! Quality of sky just improves so much, sky is bluer, clouds are whiter (and higher), and when they are dark, they are overwhelming. Tone of light is less harsh, almost like wearing a good pair of shades.

    Had we got a similar set up in high summer, we would most certainly have grabbed a few proper, awe inspiring thunderstorms as well as opposed to the infrequent, watered-down scrapes that have been thrown at us the couple of years.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Rougies


    The best weather we get in the west is nearly always via a southeast/east continental flow, hence my username! Quality of sky just improves so much, sky is bluer, clouds are whiter (and higher), and when they are dark, they are overwhelming. Tone of light is less harsh, almost like wearing a good pair of shades.

    Had we got a similar set up in high summer, we would most certainly have grabbed a few proper, awe inspiring thunderstorms as well as opposed to the infrequent, watered-down scrapes that have been thrown at us the couple of years.

    I remember you cursing the easterlies last winter, and saying how you'd prefer a good atlantic storm to the non stop bluer skies, whiter clouds and sweeter tone. I was gonna mention it then but that would've been rubbing salt in your wounds while we were enjoying snowmegeddon .

    But joking aside I wholeheartedly agree with you, there's something special about those easterlies, no matter what they bring.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Rougies wrote: »
    I remember you cursing the easterlies last winter, and saying how you'd prefer a good atlantic storm to the non stop bluer skies, whiter clouds and sweeter tone. I was gonna mention it then but that would've been rubbing salt in your wounds while we were enjoying snowmegeddon .

    But joking aside I wholeheartedly agree with you, there's something special about those easterlies, no matter what they bring.

    Last winter believe it or not saw very few continental sourced easterlies, most of the east winds we got during the last big cold spell were sourced more to our north or northeast and generally were nothing more than a modified, returning mP, or at best, a much modified cP air masses. My 'preferred' easterly type is more sourced in central or even southern Europe, a completely different kettle of fish (don't know what that really means but hear it used a lot) altogether.

    Don't get me wrong, I will embrace any big storm that comes our way, or big monster Atlantic showers that just don't seem to happen anymore. It is just the in between that I cannot abide, so if it is going to fine weather, let it be from the east.

    PS, we did get snowmegadden here too, both from the north and from the east. so there! :p but yep, I agree, there is something special about them, hopefully well see more of them in all seasons from this point onwards.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,674 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Last winter believe it or not saw very few continental sourced easterlies, most of the east winds we got during the last big cold spell were sourced more to our north or northeast and generally were nothing more than a modified, returning mP, or at best, a much modified cP air masses. My 'preferred' easterly type is more sourced in central or even southern Europe, a completely different kettle of fish (don't know what that really means but hear it used a lot) altogether.

    Don't get me wrong, I will embrace any big storm that comes our way, or big monster Atlantic showers that just don't seem to happen anymore. It is just the in between that I cannot abide, so if it is going to fine weather, let it be from the east.

    PS, we did get snowmegadden here too, both from the north and from the east. so there! :p but yep, I agree, there is something special about them, hopefully well see more of them in all seasons from this point onwards.

    Touché. I overlooked the deepness of your preferred easterlies, thanks for clarifying :P

    I'm not so picky though. They all float my kettle of fish, if you catch my drift :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    I'v said it before but id rather a good Atlantic storm over this pile of tripe we're getting,i always think of November as a stormy month(even though it's probably not) so id gladly take a rain/wind (bit of thunder) event at this stage


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Rougies wrote: »
    Touché. I overlooked the deepness of your preferred easterlies, thanks for clarifying :P

    Anytime!! :P


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  • Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭desolate sun


    Yes it is far too mild lately. We are getting similar temperatures to what we got in the Summer for flip sake :eek:
    I'm wearing a short jacket to college lately (with gloves though) and I would usually be wearing something a bit more winter-friendly.
    Come on cold, where are you?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    The best weather we get in the west is nearly always via a southeast/east continental flow, hence my username!
    Yeah, in April and May usually :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭Caff Caff


    Mark Vogan has said that there will be a colder climate by 23rd-25th hitting UK.
    http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/uk-europe.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Caff Caff wrote: »
    Mark Vogan has said that there will be a colder climate by 23rd-25th hitting UK.
    http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/uk-europe.html

    Thats a big IF right there... i still see the atlantic being in charge at that time :(
    I watched his youtube video for this... ya think record through a proper camera and in some decent lighting wouldnt ya think?! haa... its hard enough to understand him with his accent let alone hear through the background noise! ha.... Think he got his tips from Michael Fish! haha :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    Did joe bastardi bring out his winter forecast yet?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    only one wrote: »
    Did joe bastardi bring out his winter forecast yet?


    Euro Winter Outlook
    October 5 10:16 AM by Joe Bastardi
    I posted a bit on this earlier, but here is what I am looking at in Europe for the heart of winter ( mid November to mid March)

    A cold winter is forecast in major European areas in the north and west , with above normal snowfall, but the same wild card of blocking that affects the US would affect here too. The idea is that the winter backs off a bit in January, but with most of Europe further north than the US it comes back anyway in Feburary. The models and the analogs have major late season cold, but the models are over the south rather than the north, implying they are seeing a threat of blocking. In any case, I would plan on using as much snow and ice fighting equipment as last year and get ready to focus on the center of the continent for much of the winter, though once again the UK will remember this as a colder than normal winter, in spite of December not being as bad as last year ( if it is, then perhaps the ice age truly is coming)


    I will get more detailed later on with this

    ciao for now


  • Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    Lucreto wrote: »
    only one wrote: »
    Did joe bastardi bring out his winter forecast yet?


    Euro Winter Outlook
    October 5 10:16 AM by Joe Bastardi
    I posted a bit on this earlier, but here is what I am looking at in Europe for the heart of winter ( mid November to mid March)

    A cold winter is forecast in major European areas in the north and west , with above normal snowfall, but the same wild card of blocking that affects the US would affect here too. The idea is that the winter backs off a bit in January, but with most of Europe further north than the US it comes back anyway in Feburary. The models and the analogs have major late season cold, but the models are over the south rather than the north, implying they are seeing a threat of blocking. In any case, I would plan on using as much snow and ice fighting equipment as last year and get ready to focus on the center of the continent for much of the winter, though once again the UK will remember this as a colder than normal winter, in spite of December not being as bad as last year ( if it is, then perhaps the ice age truly is coming)


    I will get more detailed later on with this

    ciao for now
    I wonder when the next update will be?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,021 ✭✭✭✭eh i dunno


    Can any of you weather experts help me? What weeks over the next 5 are going to be the worse for frost? Have holidays to take and hoping to miss as many frosty mornings as possible.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    eh i dunno wrote: »
    Can any of you weather experts help me? What weeks over the next 5 are going to be the worse for frost? Have holidays to take and hoping to miss as many frosty mornings as possible.

    If we knew that far ahead we would all be rich! .... :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    eh i dunno wrote: »
    Can any of you weather experts help me? What weeks over the next 5 are going to be the worse for frost? Have holidays to take and hoping to miss as many frosty mornings as possible.

    No offence intended mate, but your post is frankly ridiculous. Your question is right up there with " I am flying to London on the 18th December at around 11am, can you please tell me if it will be raining, snowing or dry?".

    I mean really, common sense needs to be employed before such questions are asked. For your own future information, even the most experienced meterologist can only forecast 4-5 days in advance, such is the variability of the Irish climate (we are at the mercy of the Atlantic, southern European, Arctic and Siberian winds).

    No ill is intended towards you , its just these type of questions are starting to become tiresome............


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  • Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭oisingeogho




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 3,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭Planet X


    eh i dunno wrote: »
    Can any of you weather experts help me? What weeks over the next 5 are going to be the worse for frost? Have holidays to take and hoping to miss as many frosty mornings as possible.

    The week starting December 4th. should be frosty. So, I would go to work that week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Mt just posted this update over on Netweather

    Developments so far are generally positive from my perspective, and point to the potential for major cold and snow around mid-January after a few less robust efforts likely in December.

    The "cold pole" is definitely over on the Pacific side of the hemisphere at present, but that has its benefits for later cold on your side, since there is a more accommodating region over this way to create significant arctic high pressure. Then what is needed is some mechanism to push that over the pole towards north-central Russia where it can begin to influence Scandinavia. I foresee that being the general outcome over 30-60 days as retrogression begins to develop in December, then height building follows in western North America (right now we have a raging subarctic jet coming in here and it's cold/moist).

    So like I said originally, patience -- this winter won't all come and go before New Years, in fact, it might not even start really until after New Years, with one possible exception, I think about one week of December will be wintry and that most likely around 15th to 21st give or take a few days.

    So the bottom line remains this -- there seems to be a very good chance for major winter weather to come in January, and if that turns out to be too fast then February has been known to be just as good if not better, but personally I am still thinking January is "the" month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,494 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Mt just posted this update over on Netweather

    Developments so far are generally positive from my perspective, and point to the potential for major cold and snow around mid-January after a few less robust efforts likely in December.

    The "cold pole" is definitely over on the Pacific side of the hemisphere at present, but that has its benefits for later cold on your side, since there is a more accommodating region over this way to create significant arctic high pressure. Then what is needed is some mechanism to push that over the pole towards north-central Russia where it can begin to influence Scandinavia. I foresee that being the general outcome over 30-60 days as retrogression begins to develop in December, then height building follows in western North America (right now we have a raging subarctic jet coming in here and it's cold/moist).

    So like I said originally, patience -- this winter won't all come and go before New Years, in fact, it might not even start really until after New Years, with one possible exception, I think about one week of December will be wintry and that most likely around 15th to 21st give or take a few days.

    So the bottom line remains this -- there seems to be a very good chance for major winter weather to come in January, and if that turns out to be too fast then February has been known to be just as good if not better, but personally I am still thinking January is "the" month.

    so happy! :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Heres the Met UK outlook

    UK Outlook for Monday 21 Nov 2011 to Wednesday 30 Nov 2011:

    Starting mild and unsettled in the western half of the UK, where spells of rain will occasionally turn heavy, particularly over southwest-facing slopes in the northwest. The rain will be coupled with gales in parts of the west, perhaps severe gales in some northwestern areas at times. The east should experience drier, brighter conditions at first, with a risk of some fog in the mornings, and chilly overnight temperatures. The milder but unsettled conditions in the west may make inroads east at times, however. By the second week, westerly winds should spread east, giving largely unsettled weather across all parts. Temperatures will fall to near-normal, with an increased incidence of overnight frosts and a heightened snow risk for Scottish mountains.

    Updated: 1120 on Wed 16 Nov 2011


    UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Nov 2011 to Wednesday 14 Dec 2011:

    The first half of December should see some rather unsettled and changeable weather, particularly towards the north and west. Total precipitation amounts are likely to be close to or above the seasonal average, whilst some snow is likely on high ground in the northern half of the UK. Temperatures are expected to be around average but, at this time of year, that typically means single-figure degrees Celsius maxima and an increasing chance of overnight frosts. A few milder days are still possible, chiefly in the west at first, but on the whole it will feel significantly colder than during the recent mild spell.

    Heres the outlook from this week last year (Sorry I couldnt help myself for nostalgia reasons :) )
    Pangea wrote: »
    UK Outlook for Monday 22 Nov 2010 to Wednesday 1 Dec 2010:

    A generally unsettled and chilly start with clear or sunny spells, but also with showers, particularly in the east, where some longer spells of rain are also possible. Showers wintry over hills. It will soon turn colder into next week with showers turning increasingly wintry to lower levels with a risk of some significant accumulations of snow in northern and eastern parts. Temperatures below average for the time of year with an increasing risk of overnight frost and icy surfaces, especially where skies clear. Feeling cold in the often fresh and mainly northeasterly wind. The cold theme then continues through to the beginning of December, with northern and eastern parts most at risk from wintry weather.

    Updated: 1212 on Wed 17 Nov 2010


    UK Outlook for Thursday 2 Dec 2010 to Thursday 16 Dec 2010:

    It is expected to remain cold across much of the UK, with precipitation amounts around average, or slightly below, throughout the period. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers to northern and eastern areas at times. Amounts of sunshine should be above average away from northern and eastern coasts where it is likely to be cloudier. Temperatures are likely to be below average across the country, with frosty nights and the possibility of some wintry precipitation at times for most areas.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Pangea wrote: »
    Heres the Met UK outlook

    UK Outlook for Monday 21 Nov 2011 to Wednesday 30 Nov 2011:

    Starting mild and unsettled in the western half of the UK, where spells of rain will occasionally turn heavy, particularly over southwest-facing slopes in the northwest. The rain will be coupled with gales in parts of the west, perhaps severe gales in some northwestern areas at times. The east should experience drier, brighter conditions at first, with a risk of some fog in the mornings, and chilly overnight temperatures. The milder but unsettled conditions in the west may make inroads east at times, however. By the second week, westerly winds should spread east, giving largely unsettled weather across all parts. Temperatures will fall to near-normal, with an increased incidence of overnight frosts and a heightened snow risk for Scottish mountains.

    Updated: 1120 on Wed 16 Nov 2011


    UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Nov 2011 to Wednesday 14 Dec 2011:

    The first half of December should see some rather unsettled and changeable weather, particularly towards the north and west. Total precipitation amounts are likely to be close to or above the seasonal average, whilst some snow is likely on high ground in the northern half of the UK. Temperatures are expected to be around average but, at this time of year, that typically means single-figure degrees Celsius maxima and an increasing chance of overnight frosts. A few milder days are still possible, chiefly in the west at first, but on the whole it will feel significantly colder than during the recent mild spell.

    Heres the outlook from this week last year (Sorry I couldnt help myself for nostalgia reasons :) )


    I thought it was this year for a minute:) but still signs of cold


  • Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Pangea wrote: »
    Heres the Met UK outlook

    UK Outlook for Monday 21 Nov 2011 to Wednesday 30 Nov 2011:

    Starting mild and unsettled in the western half of the UK, where spells of rain will occasionally turn heavy, particularly over southwest-facing slopes in the northwest. The rain will be coupled with gales in parts of the west, perhaps severe gales in some northwestern areas at times. The east should experience drier, brighter conditions at first, with a risk of some fog in the mornings, and chilly overnight temperatures. The milder but unsettled conditions in the west may make inroads east at times, however. By the second week, westerly winds should spread east, giving largely unsettled weather across all parts. Temperatures will fall to near-normal, with an increased incidence of overnight frosts and a heightened snow risk for Scottish mountains.

    Updated: 1120 on Wed 16 Nov 2011


    UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Nov 2011 to Wednesday 14 Dec 2011:

    The first half of December should see some rather unsettled and changeable weather, particularly towards the north and west. Total precipitation amounts are likely to be close to or above the seasonal average, whilst some snow is likely on high ground in the northern half of the UK. Temperatures are expected to be around average but, at this time of year, that typically means single-figure degrees Celsius maxima and an increasing chance of overnight frosts. A few milder days are still possible, chiefly in the west at first, but on the whole it will feel significantly colder than during the recent mild spell.

    Heres the outlook from this week last year (Sorry I couldnt help myself for nostalgia reasons :) )

    admit it. you've been looking at your pictures of last December with a sad face lately:p

    it looks like Roger J Smith's update was timely!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    admit it. you've been looking at your pictures of last December with a sad face lately:p

    it looks like Roger J Smith's update was timely!

    Ive been doing that for the past 11 months nacho! :pac:

    Just realised musicman2000s quote post was a quote from MT :D Things look promising.
    Still I would prefer it at Christmas time though :pac: (Sorry I am being picky :P)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Here's some stunning winter images to the music Winter Song. Probably taken in America somewhere.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,879 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Due to cutbacks in the budget sn*w will be restricted to a single flake per household.

    Joan Burton is due to release an official statement today which will also outline increases in take home rain and abolishment of sun


This discussion has been closed.
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