Winter 2011/2012

NIALL D

jimmy.d wrote: »

i.w.o has a winter update

have u a link ?

km79

jimmy.d wrote: »

i.w.o has a winter update

Would u mind cutting and pasting it here please

bb1234567

checked iwo website and found no winter update can you post link please..thanks:)

NIALL D

bb1234567 wrote: »

checked iwo website and found no winter update can you post link please..thanks:)

id say this is the one there talkin about !!!! not new though

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/atmosphere/cold/forecaster-predicts-early-winter-snowfall-for-ireland-and-britain/36161.html

bb1234567

aw i was all excited to see the new winter update..saw that ages ago:pac:

jimmy.d

sorry lads i didnt see that one heres somthing else for yahttp://www.interaksyon.com/article/12721/la-nina-returns-promising-more-severe-weather

delw

heres another link about the story in previous post

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

bb1234567

would a la nina really guarantee cold winter?

dsmythy

bb1234567 wrote: »

would a la nina really guarantee cold winter?

No expert here but i don't think it guarantees one. Maybe combined with several other factors it might be more interesting.

Minimum sea ice at the north pole appears to have been reached, should start growing new ice from now on. First real sign of winter, timing is normal so nothing unusual so far.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Overview of conditions
On September 10, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.34 million square kilometers (1.68 million square miles). This was 110,000 square kilometers (42,500 square miles) above the 2007 value on the same date. The record minimum Arctic sea ice extent, recorded in 2007, was 4.17* million square kilometers (1.61 million square miles).

The rate of decline has flattened considerably the last few days: Arctic sea ice is likely near its minimum value for the year. However, weather patterns could still push the ice extent lower. NSIDC scientists will make an announcement when ice extent has stopped declining and has expanded for several days in a row, indicating that the Arctic sea ice has reached its lowest extent for the year and has begun freezing over. During the first week of October, after data are processed and analyzed for the month of September, NSIDC scientists will issue a more detailed analysis of this year's melt season and the state of the sea ice.

damino

Hi There,

New to boards weather section. Have been following everybody thoughts. The following from James Madden, lets take note and see if comes true. I would like to see a winter where one could skate on the canals and even possibly on some of the main rivers like the Shannon or river liffey. They use to freeze in the 1700's and 1800's, so heres hoping.

Autumn 2011

The UK can expect a similar theme to continue as we head into autumn, with a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and winter. Although some places further South may see some spells of settled weather at times, the general theme for autumn as a whole looks largely wet and very windy with dominant grey skies. It will be generally unsettled and turn progressively colder with an early start to winter, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, Northern England, and Northern Ireland.

Winter 2011-12 Update

As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

The most important factor within our weather forecasting calculations is solar activity and other major natural factors that it influences. Radiant energy from the sun is the primary influence on both the earth's ocean and atmosphere.

Low solar activity and ocean behaviour alter atmospheric circulation and block jet stream patterns that create enhanced moisture in terms of snowfall. The UK and Ireland is hit by prolonged periods of extreme cold and snow from the Arctic regions, as cold easterlies or north-easterlies develop. Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South, as they clash with the predominant cold air over the UK.

Coupled with other in depth factors such as recent volcanic activity and changes to the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic drift that we consider, this does not bode well for the severity of the UK and Northern European winter of 2011-12. Frequent and prolonged cold spells with heavy dumps of snow from blizzard like conditions is likely across many parts of the UK. The areas we expect to be worse hit throughout include the vast majority of Scotland and the Scottish Highlands, Northern England, and Northern Ireland. We have particular concerns as to the huge implications that this may pose to the infrastructure of the UK and Ireland transportation systems/economy.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 2nd September 2011 (15:57) BST

gozunda

damino wrote: »

....
Winter 2011-12 Update

As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.

....
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 2nd September 2011 (15:57) BST

Ok - I'll add some completly some completly unscientific information to the debate

Prior to the artic weather last year - my granny swore that she knew very cold weather was coming by the cold of her feet even before the weather set in....;)

But to be honest she was right and the funny thing is she always get her forecast spot on...it can be 20 C outside but if she says cold weather is imminent then get your thermals out!

She has just reported that its about to get very cold again....

Blizzard 2010

6 Weeks left to the start of Winter 2011/2012. I would expect snow during the second half of November. Snow will appear earlier this year

bb1234567

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

6 Weeks left to the start of Winter 2011/2012. I would expect snow during the second half of November. Snow will appear earlier this year

hopefully

bb1234567

gozunda wrote: »

Ok - I'll add some completly some completly unscientific information to the debate

Prior to the artic weather last year - my granny swore that she knew very cold weather was coming by the cold of her feet even before the weather set in....;)

But to be honest she was right and the funny thing is she always get her forecast spot on...it can be 20 C outside but if she says cold weather is imminent then get your thermals out!

She has just reported that its about to get very cold again....

is that actually true?
if so ...:D

thetonynator

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

6 Weeks left to the start of Winter 2011/2012. I would expect snow during the second half of November. Snow will appear earlier this year

Gozunda's grannys feet have more scientific basis than that forecast . . .:rolleyes:

gozunda

bb1234567 wrote: »

is that actually true?
if so ...:D

Gods truth...she is infallible.

thetonynator wrote: »

Gozunda's grannys feet have more scientific basis than that forecast . . .:rolleyes:

If only I could get her a job in Met Eireann....

jimmy.d

SSW hasn't occurred over the past 2 years. There have been polar votices that have brought snowy conditions to the UK but there wasn't reversal. As i explained in many other posts last winter, we had a bad winter because of Atmospheric Angular Momentum. This causes the Jest Stream (which usually provides us with out moist mild climate) to shift farther south than normal. With the Jet further south, this allows high pressure to build behind the Jet (which is North of the Jet) and the Low Pressure systems sink further south. This means the moist mild weather associated with the Atlantic is squeezed over Biscay and doesn't hit us. The high pressure north of the Jet Stream is known usually as the Greenland High. Once this become established it can take months for it to break down (which is what happened last November and December, finally broke down over Christmas).

As the Greenland High is sitting in place, this allows another area of High Pressure to form over Scandinavia and Mainland Europe. This effectively means the UK is sandwiched between 2 High Pressures, 1 to the West and 1 to the East. This then allows cold arctic air to flow freely from Siberia over the UK. This cold dry air blows over the North Sea, which is at its warmest point in winter and picks up moisture by the bucket load.

This moisture forms thunder cells with heavy precipitation and leads to "streamers", which are constant showers blowing in off the east coast. This is what happened last winter and could happen again but you CANNOT predict that at this range at all. The polar vortices (sometimes called Polar Lows) will only hit the UK if the blocking effect is taking place over Greenland and Scandinavia. Otherwise they die out or flow over Scandinavia.

The DAM line you refer to is actually 528. This is simply a marker and not an actual certainty. If you see the DAM line of 528 you will notice that the precipitation is usually snowy but not always. You need more than pressure to generate snow. The preferred values are 522 and below for a snow event. 528 is often referred to as marginal. Which basically means sleet on the coasts and snow on the hills.

You will tend to find that a northerly blast (Arctic) will mainly affect the North and West of the UK, streaming down through the midlands with little hitting the North and East and an Easterly will mainly affect the East Coast stretching to about the Midlands again.

Don't over stress yourselves with this forecast. It will be changed 2-3 times between now and October. Prepare yourselves for the worst anyways, you should really do this without a forecast.

RUDDD: Didn't realise you posted a second post above RE SST's. Your right, this has a impact on our weather but recent research has shown that the Sea only accounts for about a 10% influence on weather patterns. You need to look more at the Atmosphere and Sun outpu

jimmy.d

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2012.1sep2011.gif looking good for cold lovers

jimmy.d

summer ends earlyhttp://www.stltoday.com/news/national/article_2b4e72d4-e93c-57ec-baf7-dc50a99cb9c2.html

Lucreto

I hope so. I want snow now the better. There is some encouraging signs but it can change in an instant.

Mr Benevolent

Let's be blunt, most of us love snow but hate it again after a week of slipping and sliding all over the place.

maquiladora

Confab wrote: »

Let's be blunt, most of us love snow but hate it again after a week of slipping and sliding all over the place.

I have to say, I hated trying to get around last winter with the ice/sludge. So what I'll be looking for is a nice thick layer of powdery snow that you can just stomp along in instead of slidin around like the guy in the RTE news.

Lucreto

Confab wrote: »

Let's be blunt, most of us love snow but hate it again after a week of slipping and sliding all over the place.

I loved every minute of it. But it did get annoying when the thaw started.

Blizzard 2010

thetonynator wrote: »

Gozunda's grannys feet have more scientific basis than that forecast . . .:rolleyes:

Statistically possible:P

nacho libre

Confab wrote: »

Let's be blunt, most of us love snow but hate it again after a week of slipping and sliding all over the place.

as a wise German once said, madness lies in the masses. this kind of attitude towards snow only further proves his observation to be correct

Elmo5

Any idea when MT is going to do his autumn forecast or better still an early look at how winter might shape up?

Musicman2000

Winter update on Netweather http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

bb1234567

Elmo5 wrote: »

Any idea when MT is going to do his autumn forecast or better still an early look at how winter might shape up?

whats mt?

kwik

bb1234567 wrote: »

whats mt?

a legend