Winter 2011/2012

froger

So what is all this I hear about October being renamed to snowtober??

Speak Now

froger wrote: »

So what is all this I hear about October being renamed to snowtober??

daily mail/daily express erc

There wont be any snow at low levels in October, well that's my safe forecast :pac:

NIALL D

this crappy month is goin sooooo sloooooow !!!!

hurry up snowvember :eek::D

froger

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

daily mail/daily express erc

There wont be any snow at low levels in October, well that's my safe forecast :pac:

That is what I was thinking, the media has really gotten poor lately jumping on any story about a guy who predicts heavy snow, because his sheep are mooing like cows and the bees are flying backwards.

Not that the daily mail was ever a good paper.

froger

NIALL D wrote: »

this crappy month is goin sooooo sloooooow !!!!

hurry up snowvember :eek::D

I predict that snowvember 2011 will the the snowvember to beat all snowvembers, my legs can feel it.

pauldry

Anyone think there is going to be a thread in November called "wheres all the snow we were promised?" :P:confused:

thetonynator

pauldry wrote: »

Anyone think there is going to be a thread in November called "wheres all the snow we were promised?" :P:confused:

I reckon we'll have it by mid to late October.

bb1234567

pauldry wrote: »

Anyone think there is going to be a thread in November called "wheres all the snow we were promised?" :P:confused:

no there will be hundreds of threads 'any end in sight to these series of severe cold snaps with freezing temperatures and feet of snow ?' and there wont be any end in sight it'll be heavy snow from nov maybe oct right up until march:D well i really hope itll play out like that anyway!. but on a more realsitic note, I dont think it'll snow in october, I think itll begin mid to end november, december and january will be exceptionally cold and february just below average not too cold. there will be many cold snaps over the winter with feet of snow and harsh temps broken up by shorter mild interludes inbetween the cold snaps, thats my verdict..overall colder winter than last two,in terms of mean winter temps.

Speak Now

Glorious Autumn weather on the way next week to fill the gap

NIALL D

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Glorious Autumn weather on the way next week to fill the gap

misty wet damp drizzly weather id say.... jus like all this year so far........

bb1234567

ye I seriously doubt we will get any nice weather soon,anyway by now I just want winter and autumn to get under way:)

fizzycyst

I love nice dry settled weather in September, it warms the cockles of my heart........before the onslaught begins that is :eek:

bb1234567

fizzycyst wrote: »

I love nice dry settled weather in September, it warms the cockles of my heart........before the onslaught begins that is :eek:

well we had some lovely weather around about 6th around then for a few days didnt we? we've a sortof mini indian summer, and wheather hasnt been too bad last week or 2 ,very changeable,sunny and warm,windy and cold,dull and rainy! I just want snowy winter now!!!

Speak Now

NIALL D wrote: »

misty wet damp drizzly weather id say.... jus like all this year so far........

You must be north Tipp, i'd imagine south Tipp like most of the south east has had a pretty dry year.

delw

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=816;sess=
some clarification


(seen it on IWN,thanks to indycat)

Lucreto

James Madden had updated his blog

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

Winter 2011-12 Update
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As in my last update on the [/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]2nd[/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] September 2011. [/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, and JANUARY at present. I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions throughout this winter. Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I also expect NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY, and FEBRUARY to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame. I initially expect temperatures to really struggle across many northern regions, including Scotland (Western Scotland in particular), Ireland (Northern Ireland in particular), North West England, and parts of Wales.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Future updates will follow accordingly and become more location specific as we head into and progress through winter.[/FONT]

JanuarySnowstor

I see GP's latest update over on Netweather is for a mild start to Winter with any cold predicted for Feb.
He may well be right and at least GP backs up his thoughts scientifically.

By the way post above from James madden looks like total and utter rubbish. Low pressure systems delivering snow, is this for Canada or Ireland ??

Sun is getting active too - bad news for us cold lovers

Musicman2000

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I see GP's latest update over on Netweather is for a mild start to Winter with any cold predicted for Feb.
He may well be right and at least GP backs up his thoughts scientifically.

By the way post above from James madden looks like total and utter rubbish. Low pressure systems delivering snow, is this for Canada or Ireland ??

Sun is getting active too - bad news for us cold lovers

Have you got a link for GP'S update? wouldnt mind a read:)

Redsunset

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-technical-model-discussion/page__st__1040

Scroll down to posts 1057 and 1059.
Personally thinking that he may well be right.although not guaranteed I'm waiting for any effect that the now returning easterly QBO has on polar vortex.so the feb timing would indeed suit that idea to encourage a sudden strat warming.time will tell but there could be alot of disappointed people this winter.

derekon

redsunset wrote: »

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-technical-model-discussion/page__st__1040

Scroll down to posts 1057 and 1059.
Personally thinking that he may well be right.although not guaranteed I'm waiting for any effect that the now returning easterly QBO has on polar vortex.so the feb timing would indeed suit that idea to encourage a sudden strat warming.time will tell but there could be alot of disappointed people this winter.

Interesting thoughts and one poster indeed confirms their view that winter 2011/2012 will be very much like the winters of 2003-2008; the mere mention of those winters puts me in the throes of depression :mad:

Lucreto

derekon wrote: »

Interesting thoughts and one poster indeed confirms their view that winter 2011/2012 will be very much like the winters of 2003-2008; the mere mention of those winters puts me in the throes of depression :mad:

One of the other posters said he got the summer utterly wrong. I couldn't find his last year winter forecast and don't forget you can't get it 100% right even the professionals get it wrong.

I would rather believe Madden and Corbyn than than people who make it a hobby.

Madden just updated his winter forecast and he hasn't changed much. If Madden was unconcerned with the increase of solar activity this person mentioned I still expect a cold winter.

It doesn't mean Madden could change his mind next month.:D

derekon

Lucreto wrote: »

One of the other posters said he got the summer utterly wrong. I couldn't find his last year winter forecast and don't forget you can't get it 100% right even the professionals get it wrong.

I would rather believe Madden and Corbyn than than people who make it a hobby.

Madden just updated his winter forecast and he hasn't changed much. If Madden was unconcerned with the increase of solar activity this person mentioned I still expect a cold winter.

It doesn't mean Madden could change his mind next month.:D

Hi Lucreto, I don't think James Madden will be changing his forecast anytime soon and I would say he will stick to his prediction of a freezing winter for the UK & Ireland.

I wonder if there is anyway sunspot activity can be monitored? This would appear vital for a very cold winter (ie low sunspot activity).

Also, the jet stream is crucial - check out the link below; if you run the jet stream through for the coming week,you will note that its well above Ireland and Britain, hence the very warm weather we will have later this week with temps in Dublin due to hit 23oC at the very end of September, start of October! The jet stream moving north is allowing warm air from Spain to come up over Ireland......its all in the wind direction!

http://www.stormsurf.com/locals/natla.shtml

bb1234567

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I see GP's latest update over on Netweather is for a mild start to Winter with any cold predicted for Feb.
He may well be right and at least GP backs up his thoughts scientifically.

By the way post above from James madden looks like total and utter rubbish. Low pressure systems delivering snow, is this for Canada or Ireland ??

Sun is getting active too - bad news for us cold lovers

but its not increasing by much and is way below what it should be in this solar maximum and plus even if it has increased there will surely be a lag effect. la nina is also forecast to stay neutral which is good for us, as leaves potential for cold and snow to last all winter instead of just first half of winter like last year. and can the jet stream change in a matter of days it could be far south by november couldnt it? sure after jan last year it went north giving us lovely weather in feb,mar and april then swung north for all of summer:rolleyes: giving us our cold wet summer :rolleyes: heres hoping anyway!:D

derekon

bb1234567 wrote: »

but its not increasing by much and is way below what it should be in this solar maximum and plus even if it has increased there will surely be a lag effect. la nina is also forecast to stay neutral which is good for us, as leaves potential for cold and snow to last all winter instead of just first half of winter like last year. and can the jet stream change in a matter of days it could be far south by november couldnt it? sure after jan last year it went north giving us lovely weather in feb,mar and april then swung north for all of summer:rolleyes: giving us our cold wet summer :rolleyes: heres hoping anyway!:D

I think the jet stream can move north or south within a matter of days, depending what is happening in the upper atmosphere. I am no expert however its interesting to see the jet stream far north of Ireland over the coming days after a long period of it being right over the island....the change in the positioning of the jet stream will lead to the upcoming "Indian Summer"...

nacho libre

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I see GP's latest update over on Netweather is for a mild start to Winter with any cold predicted for Feb.
He may well be right and at least GP backs up his thoughts scientifically.

By the way post above from James madden looks like total and utter rubbish. Low pressure systems delivering snow, is this for Canada or Ireland ??

Low pressure systems sliding to the south as they encounter colder air over us can bring us widespread snow.
Perhaps that's what he meant. However his forecast seems too good to be true. Also using volcanic activity as a factor seems to be a bit iffy given the situation in Iceland this year.
Netweather's GP, didn't anticipate the severity of the cold spell last winter. He also a few years back was caught out when an eastlery blast he forecasted for February never occurred. I'm not saying this to nit pick- or to be a hurlers on the ditch- It's to show that long range forecast predictions, while enjoyable to read, should not be taken too seriously.

milli milli

froger wrote: »

a guy who predicts heavy snow, because his sheep are mooing like cows and the bees are flying backwards.

I laughed out loud at this. Thanks!

Lucreto

I will just leave this here

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-206474/Big-freeze-way.html#ixzz1ZFjlnH3R

je55ie

Lucreto wrote: »

I will just leave this here

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-206474/Big-freeze-way.html#ixzz1ZFjlnH3R

that has to be a joke!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Lucreto wrote: »

I will just leave this here

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-206474/Big-freeze-way.html#ixzz1ZFjlnH3R

Classic Daily Mail :pac:

Lucreto

jessie37 wrote: »

that has to be a joke!

It has to be. I don't think it can go from 20c to minus whatever with snow in less than a week.

The mail posted it 7 hours ago.

It looks like Ireland will miss it and be dry and cooler than normal.