Winter 2011/2012

seamus

They don't seem to be entirely wrong, though they're being a little loose on the definition of "next week" and they're no doubt talking about worst-case forecast models. A cold spell seems generally likely to start on Sunday 9th, so technically next week.

Accuweather and a whole pile of sites seem to be indicating that we'll be into single-digit daytime and close to zero nighttime figures by Wednesday 12th.

Bit of a shock to the system after the nice weather forecast for the next 7/10 days.

gothwalk

Well, given the page has 60-odd likes, they've turned comments off, and there's no date on it, I think it might be from last year. There's a reference to "last January", which would make more sense in late 2010 than now.

Lumi

That's a copy of an old report from the Birmingham Post dating to Jan 23rd 2004

Cold snap set to hit the UK next week.

Britain is set to plunge into freezing temperatures with heavy snow showers next week, forecasters have warned The cold snap will begin on Sunday in Scotland and is expected to spread southwards, bringing snowfall to parts of England and Wales by Wednesday.

Severe wintry weather could bring widespread travel chaos on roads and railways and at airports across the country.

A PA Weather Centre spokesman said showers were expected to turn into snow in Scotland on Sunday, spreading south by Monday morning when freezing temperatures will hit northern England. By Tuesday, there will a risk of heavy snow showers almost everywhere across Britain, the spokesman said.

But temperatures are likely to drop even further on Wednesday with the cold blast from the Arctic, falling well below zero degrees Celsius in Scotland.

Heavy snow showers are most likely to be seen in Scotland and north-east England on Wednesday, and there will be a 'severe and penetrating frost' across Britain overnight.

The spokesman added: 'I don't think people should be dusting off their sledges just yet, but it does look like a significant cold snap next week.' COPYRIGHT 2004 Birmingham Post & Mail Ltd
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 2004 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights reserved

Apart from the last few lines spot the difference? :rolleyes: :pac:

Big freeze is on the way

Britain is set to plunge into freezing temperatures with heavy snow showers next week.
The cold snap will begin on Sunday in Scotland and is expected to spread southwards, bringing snowfall to parts of England and Wales by Wednesday.
Severe wintry weather could bring widespread travel chaos on roads and railways and at airports across the country.
A PA WeatherCentre spokesman said showers were expected to turn into snow in Scotland on Sunday, spreading south by Monday morning when freezing temperatures will hit northern England.
By Tuesday, there will a risk of heavy snow showers almost everywhere across Britain, the spokesman said.
But temperatures are likely to drop even further on Wednesday with the cold blast from the Arctic, falling well below zero degrees Celsius in Scotland.
Heavy snow showers are most likely to be seen in Scotland and north-east England on Wednesday, and there will be a "severe and penetrating frost" across Britain overnight.
Temperatures in Scotland will struggle to remain above zero and could plummet to minus 10C midweek.
The spokesman added: "I don't think people should be dusting off their sledges just yet, but it does look like a significant cold snap at the start of next week."
It was not yet clear how long the cold snap would last.
A spokesman for AA Roadwatch advised motorists to take extra care in freezing conditions, and to allow extra time to warm up their vehicles in the mornings.
Extreme wintry weather last January caused havoc on Britain's roads and railways and caused severe disruption to flights.

Lucreto

Fionagus wrote: »

That's a copy of an old report from the Birmingham Post dating to Jan 23rd 2004



Apart from the last few lines spot the difference? :rolleyes: :pac:

So the mail is posting an old article dated today from 2004.

Musicman2000

That has to be from last year

Lumi

Lucreto wrote: »

So the mail is posting an old article dated today from 2004.

Well it IS the Daily Mail ....... :pac::pac:
They're not exactly awash with high journalistic standards at the best of times

seamus

Lucreto wrote: »

So the mail is posting an old article dated today from 2004.

Eh, the date on it on the mail website is actually 2004.

Where did you dredge it up from?

Lucreto

seamus wrote: »

Eh, the date on it on the mail website is actually 2004.

Where did you dredge it up from?

It was posted on a few other winter forums.

http://www.google.ie/#hl=en&sugexp=pfwc&cp=80&gs_id=7&xhr=t&q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fnews%2Farticle-206474%2FBig-freeze-way.html%23ixzz1ZFjlnH3R&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&site=&source=hp&pbx=1&oq=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-206474/Big-freeze-way.html%23ixzz1ZFjlnH3R&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&gs_sm=&gs_upl=&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=d4b24445ee0b7872&biw=1344&bih=653

It says it was posted 8 hours ago

You are the first to find this hole in the story. I am a little embarrassed over it now.

seamus

Awesome, I'm the first to find the hole. The "8 hours ago" on Google means that it was last updated 8 hours ago, as far as google can tell. Doesn't actually mean that it was created 8 hours ago.

Go the Daily Mail website and in the search box paste, "Big Freeze is on the way"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/search.html?sel=site&searchPhrase=Big+freeze+is+on+the+way

You'll see it's the second result in that - check the url, it's identical. Dated 22/01/2004.

It's actually the Daily Mail's fault for not sticking a timestamp on their articles tbh.

Perhaps they've been loading the contents of their archive or something and that's why Google says, "8 hours ago". The article doesn't appear anywhere on the Daily Mail front pages.

Lucreto

seamus wrote: »

Awesome, I'm the first to find the hole. The "8 hours ago" on Google means that it was last updated 8 hours ago, as far as google can tell. Doesn't actually mean that it was created 8 hours ago.

Go the Daily Mail website and in the search box paste, "Big Freeze is on the way"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/search.html?sel=site&searchPhrase=Big+freeze+is+on+the+way

You'll see it's the second result in that - check the url, it's identical. Dated 22/01/2004.

It's actually the Daily Mail's fault for not sticking a timestamp on their articles tbh.

Perhaps they've been loading the contents of their archive or something and that's why Google says, "8 hours ago". The article doesn't appear anywhere on the Daily Mail front pages.

I was suspicious, now I have to burst a few bubbles with your evidence. :pac:

Duiske

Lucreto wrote: »

I was suspicious, now I have to burst a few bubbles with your evidence. :pac:

I wonder if the powers that be at Heathrow Airport have got caught up in all the confusion.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-15105627

Musicman2000

Duiske wrote: »

I wonder if the powers that be at Heathrow Airport have got caught up in all the confusion.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-15105627

Thats winter jinxed:D

Blizzard 2010

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Thats winter jinxed:D

OR they maybe onto something:D

davidsr20

Did mt do his winter forecast yet?

fizzycyst

davidsr20 wrote: »

Did mt do his winter forecast yet?

No not yet, mid-late October as far as I remember.

Tindie

I just saw the week ahead forecast on BBC 1 and there could be bit of rain and sleet on Thursday for Scotland.

Rest of the UK , much cooler and wetter and windy for the week!

However high pressure is still not That far from the UK!

I will try and find a link for the week ahead forecast!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vejBCJRbbpI&feature=channel_video_title

only one

This is from Positive Weather Solutions updated today



The last month of autumn looks embattled, with cold and mild influences each trying to predominate. The UK and Eire will at times be characterised by chilly, dry – often cloudy, even foggy – weather but, more often, by episodes of windy and quite wet weather. Ireland and western regions of Britain can expect the most inclement conditions, with the prospect of a brief period of increased rain frequency in southern Britain. Embedded within this unsettled spell, which will vacillate between mild and chilliness, are signals for a chance of sleet or wet snow across northern Britain. Parts of eastern Britain meanwhile will generally receive the best of any sunnier and dry conditions and it is here where there will be the greatest possibility of overnight frost forming. Any extended period of cold weather during November appears to have retreated northwards and eastwards away from the British Isles. With some minor regional deviations the month should turn out close to average for both rain and temperature.

thetonynator

only one wrote: »

This is from Positive Weather Solutions updated today



The last month of autumn looks embattled, with cold and mild influences each trying to predominate. The UK and Eire will at times be characterised by chilly, dry – often cloudy, even foggy – weather but, more often, by episodes of windy and quite wet weather. Ireland and western regions of Britain can expect the most inclement conditions, with the prospect of a brief period of increased rain frequency in southern Britain. Embedded within this unsettled spell, which will vacillate between mild and chilliness, are signals for a chance of sleet or wet snow across northern Britain. Parts of eastern Britain meanwhile will generally receive the best of any sunnier and dry conditions and it is here where there will be the greatest possibility of overnight frost forming. Any extended period of cold weather during November appears to have retreated northwards and eastwards away from the British Isles. With some minor regional deviations the month should turn out close to average for both rain and temperature.

How are they claiming this is a forecast? it is basically a statement of what a average October is like.

dsmythy

thetonynator wrote: »

How are they claiming this is a forecast? it is basically a statement of what a average October is like.

I guess that is what they are predicting. Nothing out of the ordinary?

jimmy.d

update
SATURDAY, 24 SEPTEMBER 2011

High pressure to bring a spell of more settled weather to many parts of the UK
High pressure to bring a spell of more settled weather to many parts of the UK

24th September 2011
It is not difficult to see the area of high pressure that is set to bring a pleasant spell of weather across many parts of the UK over the coming week and possibly into early October. Although the best of the weather is likely to be further south throughout this period, this will certainly be a welcomed spell of settled weather for many parts, after the summer that never arrived, and the severely cold and snowy winter that we are about to experience.

Winter 2011-12 Update

As in my last update on the 2nd September 2011. "I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, and JANUARY" at present. I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter. Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.

I also expect NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY, and FEBRUARY to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame. I initially expect temperatures to really struggle across many northern regions, including Scotland (Western Scotland in particular), Ireland (Northern Ireland in particular), North West England, and parts of Wales.

Future updates will follow accordingly and become more location specific as we head into and progress through winter.

Our initial summer and winter 2011 forecast for this year was originally published on Exacta Weather in January of this year, before any other forecaster worldwide. It is also available to view with an official YouTube date stamp from the 4th February 2011 below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=push7IO4fCg&feature=related

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)
ExactaWeather.com

Published: 24th September 2011 (19:24) BST

Conor30

The jet stream is back and has ruined our chance of snow in the process. We never get a cold winter when the jet stream is this active. Yes it looks like another wet and mild winter with plenty of gales.

Lucreto

Conor30 wrote: »

The jet stream is back and has ruined our chance of snow in the process. We never get a cold winter when the? jet stream is this active. Yes it looks like another wet and mild winter with plenty of gales.

Its a little early to say that. It keeps moving as I have seen it north of Ireland and as far south as Southern France. It can change in a matter of weeks or even days.

Wait until mid November before drawing conclusions. It could very well slow down again.

davidsr20

Is it looking like all this hype about a colder winter is gone out the window?

YouTookMyName

Conor30 wrote: »

The jet stream is back and has ruined our chance of snow in the process. We never get a cold winter when the jet stream is this active. Yes it looks like another wet and mild winter with plenty of gales.

Seriously? Thats great. Where is the jet stream?

Lucreto

davidsr20 wrote: »

Is it looking like all this hype about a colder winter is gone out the window?

Too early to tell as its the start of October and last October was warm before cooling off towards the end.

Look at the heatwave thread people thought we would get hot sunny conditions for 5 or 6 days but I was lucky to get 1 and the amount of rain that fell was not predicted until a few days beforehand.

Things change quickly when weather was concerned.

jimbobaloobob

just looking at some of the vegetation. There is an abundance of berries on the trees, isn that usually a sign of a harsh winter to come.

the birds aint eating them yet so saving them until its necessary

dsmythy

Outside of the end of the indian summer October could be shaping up to be rather ordinary. Ireland right on the airmass battleline, good blowy lows near Iceland, ridges constantly trying to build from the south. Everything in the right place

Blizzard 2010

I still have a feeling that we will see snow during the second part of November. I think we will be all surprised again.

planetX

jimbobaloobob wrote: »

just looking at some of the vegetation. There is an abundance of berries on the trees, isn that usually a sign of a harsh winter to come.

the birds aint eating them yet so saving them until its necessary

More like there's still plenty of other food around, so the birds haven't needed to turn to less palatable food yet. They don't 'save' berries - something else would nip in and eat the lot:D

Tom Cruises Left Nut

planetX wrote: »

More like there's still plenty of other food around, so the birds haven't needed to turn to less palatable food yet. They don't 'save' berries - something else would nip in and eat the lot:D

Lots of hungry little yokes out there ! :pac: