€25k invested in prize bonds

lordleitrim

100k in prize bonds and only one 75 euro win in 6 months (back in January)? How are others with similar size holdings getting 10 times that level of winnings? I know its all about probability and luck but still......

Hibernicis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121865939#Comment_121865939

It really is the luck of the draw, pardon the pun.

My 2022 winnings were two and a half times my 2021 winnings, on the same holding and similar prize structure. (If anything the 2021 winnings should have been slightly higher).

It's often struck me that the winnings are less consistent/predictable than they ought to be, statistically. The draws are conducted exclusively by software. And as anybody who knows anything about software development will know it is largely a human endeavour and subject to error. And while I am sure that they test the software, and have other safeguards in place (such as having a man from the NTMA physically present in the office while the draw is being conducted 🙄 ) I sometimes get this niggling doubt. But who knows......

POBox19

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121865939#Comment_121865939

Commiserations to you and the many more in the same situation. With 16,000 bonds you'd expect more, but the odds of any bond winning per draw is roughly 80,000:1.

My last win was 5 months ago and before that 5 years. I'm down to 2000 bonds now and doing much better elsewhere.

Hibernicis

For the record, results were visible today on the doomed racker at 12:31. State Saving's online prize win e-mail sent at 12:43 and results visible in online profile at the same time.

WhiteMan32

Winnings on 8th March 2024 on €112k: €75

Last win on 16th Feb 2024: €75

notsocutehoor

€75 win this week, last win 2/2/2024, second win this year

Prize Bond bought February 2016 (same as last win)

Winnings to date (no winning records kept pre 2005) €2,550 on €12,600 (including reinvestments) worth of PB's bought monthly over a 26/27 year period plus €20,000 bought in Feb 2016 (eight €50 wins and two €75 wins on the February 2016 purchase), plus €20,000 bought in July 2020 (four €50 wins on the July 2020 purchase), plus €30,000 bought in October 2020 (three €50 wins and one €75 win on the October 2020 purchase).

Winnings 2011 €75

Winnings 2012 €150

Winnings 2013 €200

Winnings 2014 €100

Winnings 2015 Zero

Winnings 2016 €200

Winnings 2017 €250

Winnings 2018 Nada, Zilch, SFA

Winnings 2019 €250

Winnings 2020 €150

Winnings 2021 €150

Winnings 2022 €100

Winnings 2023 €275

Winnings 2024 €150 (and counting)

Here's to next Friday

dxhound2005

I registered for State Savings in December 2023, and it gave me access to the records of all my winnings. I bought €10K in January 2007, GI series. This is the winners from 2006 and 2007. They can also be ordered by bond number , and this reveals a few instances where bonds one number apart have won. From other sets of bonds as well. I expect the records would go back to winners from the start?

Draw Date Winning Bond Number(s) Win Value

25/08/2006 GI471898 €75.00

16/02/2007 GI472351 €75.00

13/07/2007 GI472809 €75.00

12/10/2007 GI471296 €75.00

09/11/2007 GI472742 €75.00

Winners one number apart.

13/05/2016 GI471714 €50.00

07/07/2017 GI471715 €50.00

31/10/2008 GI471889 €75.00

11/08/2017 GI471890 €50.00

Winnings by year. 2006 €75. 2007 €300. 2008 €225. 2009 €225. 2010 NIL. 2011 €225. 2012 €75. 2013 €100 (start of €50 prizes). 2014 €50. 2015 €100. 2016 €100. 2017 €150. 2018 €100. July 2018 to March 2024 nothing. Total winnings €1,725, not good compared to lots of other products. But none of them give me entry to a draw with thousands of prizes ever week. The drought since mid 2018 would be the equivalent of someone with €60K getting no win in a year (I think?), but there were different interest rates during the time.

Notional interest rates this century. Although I did win €1,000 in 2010 and again in 2015 (not the GI bonds) the percentage rates in the real world are less than below. E.g. 0.35% was approx 0.25%, and 1% is approx 0.75% for the amounts given to the "small" prizes. €75 prizes are approx 75% by value, but 99.5% by number, taken over a month.

2000 2.75%.

2004 2.4%

Sept 2007 3%.

Jan 2012 2.25%

June 2012 1.75%.

Dec 2013 1.6%

Nov 2014 1.25%.

July 2016 0.85%.

Aug 2017 0.5%.

Feb 2021 0.35%.

Oct 2023 1%.

makker

Purchased 100k of these around October when the rate went up to 1%

Had two €75 wins towards end of Nov and first draw in Dec, and nothing since in over 3 months.

Was hoping to do a little bit better but I guess the big prizes skew the average returns in favour of a few lucky ones over the majority.

dxhound2005

The Prize Bond Tracker still works for existing accounts. But at some point in the last few days, the option to create a new account was removed.

monseiur

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121866154#Comment_121866154

A healthy skepticism is always a good thing. Computers are not infallible despite what some would like us to believe. The post office scandal in the UK involving Fujitsu / Horizon computer software should be a lesson to us all......and unfortunately there are many more examples.

dxhound2005

The new screen for checking winners is useful for playing around with. There are some posts here about the "Greek Bonds", which is a holding running approximately from ZH759000 to ZH823000. That range has won 92 prizes in the last four years. The screen only goes back for four years. They won a €50K prize and a €1K prize during the time.

But if they did not get that €50K, there is a bunch of 3,456 bonds worth €21,600 which would have won nothing in four years. If is the operative word, but just like my €10K winning nothing for nearly six years, it shows the hit and miss nature of luck from a computerised random number generator with over 700 million numbers to choose from. Every draw stands alone with no influence from past draws, and no influence on the next draw. Those bonds could continue for another four years with no prize. And my €10K could get two prizes on Friday.

Draw Date Prize Value Bond Number Status (Sorted by Bond Number)

20 Oct 2023 €75.00 ZH782032 Awarded

10 Sep 2021 €50.00 ZH782934 Awarded

28 May 2021 €50,000.00 ZH 784006 Awarded

21 Jul 2023 €50.00 ZH786390 Awarded

07 Jul 2023 €50.00 ZH786954 Awarded

pbwinner

Winnings on 15th March 2024: €0

Last win 7th July 2023: €50

Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €3300

2011: €75 x 4 = €300

2012: €75 x 6 = €450

2013: €50 x 12 = €600

2014: €50 x 9 = €450

2015: €50 x 5 = €250

2016: €50 x 5 = €250

2017: €50 x 4 = €200

2018: €50 x 2 = €100

2019: €50 x 6 = €300

2020: €50 x 5 = €250

2021: €50 x 1 = €50

2022: €50 x 1 = €50

2023: €50 x 1 = €50

2024: €0 x 0 = €0

Hibernicis

€75 for me

Looks like they are finally giving the online system a much needed push, emails sent out at 12:35 today. Big improvement on last week. Still a way to go though. The doomed tracker was up to date at 12:31.

dxhound2005

€75 for me, I'm on a three week roll.

The new bonds I got during the week are BGC071xxx. BGC148584 won €1,000 for someone in Dublin, a very early return on their purchase. Newest number to win today BGD112458.

ryledoc12

Just wondering, is it better to invest €5000 euro into prize bonds in one go or buy 5 €1000 bonds together?

Or does is it make no difference?? Thanks! :)

cobham

On a roll here, won E75 last week and two 75's this week!

Sligo Quay

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121897362#Comment_121897362

It really makes no difference, it's purely a random selection of numbers, I've tried everything, from old bonds purchased in the 1980s individually purchased and purchased in blocks with numbers consecutive, then in 2015 purchased a 30k batch, 2016 a 20k batch 2017 10k batch, I purchased a 40k batch in 2019 but cashed those in 2022, to date I've 100 old bonds from 1985 to 1990 and 3 batches 10k 20k 30k, there is no secret or system just random luck.

Somebody said here that the old bonds purchased in punts pounds have a slightly better odds, those bonds individually are €6.35 while the Euro bonds are €6.25, but I've rarely seen an old bond pre euro winning a big prize, you do see very old bonds from 1957 winning small prizes €50 now €75, but never a big prize, the big prize seems to be always won by bonds purchased in the last 20 years, never older than that, a single letter bond being a big winner is extremely rare,at the end of the day, we live in hope, we dream big and there is always next Friday, an old bond sitting in a press, not part of any big batch, one in millions could win that big jackpot, it's not impossible but it very nearly is impossible, it could be YOU!

Hibernicis

@Sligo Quay

100% correct that there should be no difference. Every bond is entered in every draw and has an equal chance of winning one prize in that draw. (Unless there is something wrong with the prize selection software). I have number of large batches and a lot of very small batches and the aggregate performance is very similar, in line with the mathematical probability for each of the batches.

Older bonds have better chance, proportionate to their value, of winning compared to newer bonds. This is because they were issued at IR£5, or €6.35. So they cost 1.6% more, and they have a 1.6% better chance of winning. This is provided for in S.I. No. 582 of 2004 which (interestingly) was effective from the 1st day of January, 2002. Details are here: https://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2004/si/582/made/en/print

It makes sense that older bonds win less often simply because there are far fewer remaining - most will have been cashed in at some point. So it's just the force of numbers at work.

I think somebody on this thread is due a big win one of these days - we have been patient long enough. And yes, it could be YOU !!.

tuisginideach

Nothing - again

carrickbawn

Same as that.

ryledoc12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121898366#Comment_121898366

Ah ok thank you! I have been saving to 5000 then buying the prize bonds, I might start buying them in 1000 now, or maybe even direct debit of 100-200 a week... I guess it's just easier in a larger amount when cashing them in??

I currently hold 15,000 (3 bonds of 5000), have only won 75 euro once in January and I have the first 5000 batch since December 2022....

ryledoc12

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121897572#Comment_121897572

Congrats!!

Can I ask how much you have in bonds?

Hibernicis

Ah ok thank you! I have been saving to 5000 then buying the prize bonds, I might start buying them in 1000 now, or maybe even direct debit of 100-200 a week... I guess it's just easier in a larger amount when cashing them in??

@ryledoc12

It makes very little difference when cashing-in, provided you are using State Savings Online. You just tick all of the bond certificates you want to cash-in and that’s it. So whether you cash in one cert or 100 makes no difference. You can also cash-in some but not all of the bonds on a single cert.

Buying by DD is a great option, you don’t inadvertently forget to purchase or find other uses for the money. I built up quite a holding by having a DD in place over many years, and made a point of increasing it any time my salary increased. Painless really.

dxhound2005

The press release is using more florid language for the time of year that's in it. I have a JK683xxx bond from 03 November 2008, so JS would be in December?

Fergus Dennehy © Kerryman Fri 15 Mar 2024 at 14:39

It's certainly a Bank Holiday weekend to remember for one Kerry person after they scooped an incredible €50,000 prize through to the Prize Bonds initiative. The Prize Bonds are a State Savings product where people, by purchasing a Prize Bond, are entered into weekly prize draws where thousands of tax free prizes can be won including a monthly jackpot of €500,000.

This week, it was the turn of Prize Bond number JS291125 which was purchased way back in 2008 to be drawn out as a winner, thus earning its owner a cool €50,000 in return.

whispering1

Anybody any luck today ? There are not sending me any verification code.

carrickbawn

Nothing here .

Hibernicis

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121926071#Comment_121926071

Same here. Another State Savings Online website failure. They really really need to get someone competent to look at that mess of a website and sort It out. Meanwhile the doomed tracker is working away week in and week out, for now at any rate.

€75 for me today.

tuisginideach

Nothing

pbwinner

Winnings on 22nd March 2024: €0

Last win 7th July 2023: €50

Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €3300

2011: €75 x 4 = €300

2012: €75 x 6 = €450

2013: €50 x 12 = €600

2014: €50 x 9 = €450

2015: €50 x 5 = €250

2016: €50 x 5 = €250

2017: €50 x 4 = €200

2018: €50 x 2 = €100

2019: €50 x 6 = €300

2020: €50 x 5 = €250

2021: €50 x 1 = €50

2022: €50 x 1 = €50

2023: €50 x 1 = €50

2024: €0 x 0 = €0

POBox19

This is a long drought...