Time to burn Greece?

beeftotheheels

Peanut wrote: »

Just a small point, but I think it's incredibly unlikey that Greece will leave the EU regardless of what happens. A Eurozone exit though is certainly on the cards, or perhaps something like a temporary suspension.

If Greece wants to default on official EU creditors it has to leave the EU. I'm not saying that they couldn't rejoin at some point but so long as they remain a member of the EU they cannot default on the official creditors.

If Greece wants to leave the euro then they would be best placed to leave the EU in order to allow them default on official creditors, even if such default is only the drachmafication of their official debt.

The EU/ EZ has no motivation to make any Greek exit less painful than it would otherwise be, indeed they have every motivation to ensure that a unilateral Greek default would be as painful as possible. Getting out of the EU restricts the tools available to the ECB/ EFSF etc.

Monty Burnz

beeftotheheels wrote: »

The EU/ EZ has no motivation to make any Greek exit less painful than it would otherwise be, indeed they have every motivation to ensure that a unilateral Greek default would be as painful as possible.

Pour encourager les autres...

washman3

So the authorities in Greece facilitated corruption in order to secure votes?? like helping people get blind pension allowance who were not blind.!
surely things like that would never happen here.???

thank God we have watchdogs and regulators.

Monty Burnz

washman3 wrote: »

So the authorities in Greece facilitated corruption in order to secure votes?? like helping people get blind pension allowance who were not blind.!
surely things like that would never happen here.???

thank God we have watchdogs and regulators.

The interesting thing is that we can get an idea of what would happen here if we reject 'austerity' by looking at what is going to happen to the Greeks. I think they are about to learn a very, very hard lesson about what real austerity is.

beeftotheheels

Monty Burnz wrote: »

The interesting thing is that we can get an idea of what would happen here if we reject 'austerity' by looking at what is going to happen to the Greeks. I think they are about to learn a very, very hard lesson about what real austerity is.

Which might be a good thing for us. Might also focus some minds here on the importance of not protest voting while assuming that common sense will prevail as is being reported in Greece today. People who really want to stay in the euro yet voted for a party who offered the impossible. People need to consider before they vote. In which Greece offers us a new lesson in democracy.

Monty Burnz

beeftotheheels wrote: »

Which might be a good thing for us. Might also focus some minds here on the importance of not protest voting while assuming that common sense will prevail as is being reported in Greece today. People who really want to stay in the euro yet voted for a party who offered the impossible. People need to consider before they vote. In which Greece offers us a new lesson in democracy.

And only a 65% turnout. Amazing, really - the future of their state is at existential risk.

Irish Aris

I could say a lot, but I don't see the point. . .
Just this: At this point Greece is without a government.
SYRIZA is in no position to really change things alone. They need a coalition of at least three parties, and that's close to impossible.

Most probable scenario is another around of election in June.

Monty Burnz

Irish Aris wrote: »

I could say a lot, but I don't see the point. . .
Just this: At this point Greece is without a government.
SYRIZA is in no position to really change things alone. They need a coalition of at least three parties, and that's close to impossible.

Most probable scenario is another around of election in June.

If SYRIZA do get into power, the country is going down the toilet in double-quick time. A voyeuristic, unpleasant part of me wonders what it would look like - the way it would have been interesting to watch the Titanic disaster unfold.

McDave

Monty Burnz wrote: »

The interesting thing is that we can get an idea of what would happen here if we reject 'austerity' by looking at what is going to happen to the Greeks. I think they are about to learn a very, very hard lesson about what real austerity is.

I fear the Greeks are backing themselves into a corner. They don't appear to be able to take any meaningful steps to take responsibility for their predicament.

I think plans are already being drawn up for an actual EZ exit. It may not come to pass. But the EZ has to have a contingency plan it can put into operation at short notice.

If it comes to pass, I think there'll be a massive sigh of relief all round. The crystallising of losses will be a further drag on EZ growth. But the EZ-16 will be composed of countries whose governments are intent on positively engaging with their problems, and will press rapidly ahead to finally resolve the EZ crisis.

As for Greece, its exit will see it returned to its Balkan and Aegean destiny. It will also establish a two-speed EU. Aspiration will no longer be the driving force of participation. It will be relative economic and political fitness.

Other countries' hopes will go down with Greece. Romania and Bulgaria for sure. Probably Hungary. Turkey's membership application will be long-fingered for at least a generation. Ukraine and Belarus cannot expect any significant rapprochement with the EU for the foreseeable future. I'd actually see Ukraine splitting in two, followed quickly by a collapse of Belarus's dictatorship, followed by a long period of pain as both attempt to establish minimalist European credentials. But they'll all be lumped in the same basic category with Greece and the Balkans.

BTW: get your hands on the Greek €1 and €2 coins. They are truly beautiful. Especially the owl on the €1! They could soon be extinct!

Irish Aris

Monty Burnz wrote: »

If SYRIZA do get into power, the country is going down the toilet in double-quick time. A voyeuristic, unpleasant part of me wonders what it would look like - the way it would have been interesting to watch the Titanic disaster unfold.

in contrast to going down the toilet in a 20 year period??
Anyway, it seems most likely that when the next round of elections takes place (probably early June), ND and PASOK will be able to secure enough seats in the parliament to form a coalition together and continue the program. . .

beeftotheheels

Irish Aris wrote: »

in contrast to going down the toilet in a 20 year period??
Anyway, it seems most likely that when the next round of elections takes place (probably early June), ND and PASOK will be able to secure enough seats in the parliament to form a coalition together and continue the program. . .

Mid to late June at the earliest meaning that they could be looking at an internal default before the next elections.

Having elections when pensions and salaries had recently not been paid would not be something to be sanguine about.

Monty Burnz

Irish Aris wrote: »

in contrast to going down the toilet in a 20 year period??

Well I don't think they will be down the toilet in a failed state sort of a way, I think they will be grand if they stick with the plan. The next decade won't be much fun though.

But 'not much fun' versus 'state collapse'...I know which I would choose.

Lantus

Greece was a mess from day 1 and SHOULD of been set free and allowed to revert back to its own devalued currency. This would of been good for the EU and good for greece.

However, the EU decided to set a precedent in that no one could be allowed to fail and poured cash into the abyss.

Grrece is on the verge of a revolution. The people have been pushed into a corner and told they will need to move further back. Already the signs are there. Further austerity will only alienate and anger a population into believing that they have nothing to lose in taking direct action. When that day comes (and I think that 2012 will be that 'day') it will be a bloody and terrible display of how a modern european country can collapse in on itself and literally implode. The greek people will exodus from greece in droves and the EU will have a humanitarian crisis on its hand, a broken country and a failed attempt to cure a debt crisis.

The shock waves will resonate through the EU and the world.

Monty Burnz

Lantus wrote: »

Greece was a mess from day 1 and SHOULD of been set free and allowed to revert back to its own devalued currency. This would of been good for the EU and good for greece.

However, the EU decided to set a precedent in that no one could be allowed to fail and poured cash into the abyss.

Grrece is on the verge of a revolution. The people have been pushed into a corner and told they will need to move further back. Already the signs are there. Further austerity will only alienate and anger a population into believing that they have nothing to lose in taking direct action. When that day comes (and I think that 2012 will be that 'day') it will be a bloody and terrible display of how a modern european country can collapse in on itself and literally implode. The greek people will exodus from greece in droves and the EU will have a humanitarian crisis on its hand, a broken country and a failed attempt to cure a debt crisis.

The shock waves will resonate through the EU and the world.

Yeah, but to be fair they brought it on themselves - same as we brought our catastrophe on ourselves by electing incompetents and taking part in a property bubble.

Should the EU protect states from their own citizens' stupidity? What about democracy?

paddy0090

You all seem to be discounting the possibility that it could be more painful to keep the Greeks in the Euro. Having them pop up into the headlines every couple of months does not a stable currency make. What's more no country can be forced out of the Euro, the "rules" are: no bailouts; no bankrupts; no exit. So far only one part of the triad is left. IMO a nasty exit for any country would do more damage to the concept of "a community of nations" that is the EU. Any one with hopes of seeing a failed state pushed into total penury will be disappointed.

If this saga (crisis is a greek word referring to a short period of stress, saga by the way is Icelandic) has thought us anything it's that the rules are only relative within limits, and we are well beyond those limits.

On another note will it really be such a good thing to give our govt. access to the ESM. They're already looking for ways to spend money we don't have with the jobs program. Can letting them borrow at cheaper rates and ignore the debt for much longer really help this country. It never worked for Fianna Fail.

Irish Aris

I am glad that we have this conversation, it's good to hear different perspectives on the issues. Being a Greek abroad, my perspective has shifted a bit too.
You are all making valid points.
Part of the Greek population dragged us all down and it's only natural that we need to clear this mess - by ourselves and with the help of others.
In trying to understand this election result, let me give you two points.
Ever since the austerity program began (2 years now):
1.There was no measure taken for the development of the country. In fact, whenever Troika people are coming, there is no mention of such measures. All we hear is "cut cut cut. .. ". Which of course is correct, but I think it can't work on its own. If it isn't backed up by actual development, it will lead to a dead end.
2.The situation as is now: working people who always paid their taxes, get the biggest impact with the new measures. And people who were stealing. . .well, they keep on stealing - politicians/governmentals not excluded.

I can't really blame people for wanting to risk a change. It seems rather logical, if the politicians are not doing for you, you change them. And most of the left-of-center parties are not dead opposed to austerity measures, they just want a different, "kinder" version.
The worrying thing is that voting on the left-of-center parties is one side of the story.
The other side is 400000 people (7% of the valid voters) voted for the neonazist (repeat, neonazist-swastikas, third reich salutes etc) party. And these people are very serious on their ethnicist agenda and full of hate. To me this actually shows that something is definitely wrong. Could be just a one-off case, could be leading to the end. . .

Do you reckon there might be a general rethinking after the change of leadership in France? There were some officials that expressed (semi-officially) the opinion of taking a milder approach on the whole thing.

Peanut

Irish Aris wrote: »

...
The other side is 400000 people (7% of the valid voters) voted for the neonazist (repeat, neonazist-swastikas, third reich salutes etc) party. And these people are very serious on their ethnicist agenda and full of hate. To me this actually shows that something is definitely wrong. Could be just a one-off case, could be leading to the end. . .

I wouldn't really get too hung up on this, it's natural that in an economic downturn the dominant party/parties will be blamed and the vote fragmented. Possibly many people have voted far-right/left out of desperation more than any real allegiance to that type of politics.

I think Greece could stagger out of this mess if it got really serious about promoting tourism. Slash, I mean really cut the hotel prices, Ryanair style, and make things as easy as possible for people to holiday there. I remember looking at hotel prices a year or two ago in some parts of Greece and they were still far too expensive compared to Bulgaria and Turkey. I just hope that they were in fact booked to capacity and not keeping prices artificially high in order to maintain some sort of aspirational pricing level.

Monty Burnz

Peanut wrote: »

I remember looking at hotel prices a year or two ago in some parts of Greece and they were still far too expensive compared to Bulgaria and Turkey. I just hope that they were in fact booked to capacity and not keeping prices artificially high in order to maintain some sort of aspirational pricing level.

Sure how can they afford to retire at 45 if they don't charge those crazy rates?

Irish Aris

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Sure how can they afford to retire at 45 if they don't charge those crazy rates?

You're confusing two different things.
People that (used to) retire at 45 relate to public sector.
People that relate to tourism often are of a certain age.

Cork boy 55

Monty Burnz wrote: »

And only a 65% turnout. Amazing, really - the future of their state is at existential risk.

Thats an amazing stat
there must be some stat reason it is so low

The turnout in Irish election(2011) was 70%
The turnout in French election(2012) was 80%


from wiki(:rolleyes:)

Electorate || voter turnout
9,949,401 || 65% (6,476,751)

also nearly 2% of votes where invalid and 0.5% of ballots where blank.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election,_2012

Cork boy 55

Peanut wrote: »

I wouldn't really get too hung up on this, it's natural that in an economic downturn the dominant party/parties will be blamed and the vote fragmented. Possibly many people have voted far-right/left out of desperation more than any real allegiance to that type of politics.

I think Greece could stagger out of this mess if it got really serious about promoting tourism. Slash, I mean really cut the hotel prices, Ryanair style, and make things as easy as possible for people to holiday there. I remember looking at hotel prices a year or two ago in some parts of Greece and they were still far too expensive compared to Bulgaria and Turkey. I just hope that they were in fact booked to capacity and not keeping prices artificially high in order to maintain some sort of aspirational pricing level.

I am not an expert on Greek tourism or how much money they can make from it(% of gdp) but it seems to me that the Arab spring should have been a gold mine for them
All the tourist stopped going to Tunisa and Egypt.
Instead they(the greeks) engaged in waves of transport and power strikes and Turkey picked up the most of the displaced trade.

Would you go on holiday to Greece when the whole thing could be ruined
by a wildcat strike?

Monty Burnz

Irish Aris wrote: »

You're confusing two different things.
People that (used to) retire at 45 relate to public sector.
People that relate to tourism often are of a certain age.

Sorry, that was just a bad joke to be honest.

Cork boy 55

Good graphic from Guardian at link mapping election results

I cannot post all the image for some reason



http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2012/may/06/greece-elections-results-map?intcmp=239

washman3

Irish Aris wrote: »

I am glad that we have this conversation, it's good to hear different perspectives on the issues. Being a Greek abroad, my perspective has shifted a bit too.
You are all making valid points.
Part of the Greek population dragged us all down and it's only natural that we need to clear this mess - by ourselves and with the help of others.
In trying to understand this election result, let me give you two points.
Ever since the austerity program began (2 years now):
1.There was no measure taken for the development of the country. In fact, whenever Troika people are coming, there is no mention of such measures. All we hear is "cut cut cut. .. ". Which of course is correct, but I think it can't work on its own. If it isn't backed up by actual development, it will lead to a dead end.
2.The situation as is now: working people who always paid their taxes, get the biggest impact with the new measures. And people who were stealing. . .well, they keep on stealing - politicians/governmentals not excluded.

interesting to hear you points. for the past 2 years all we have heard about Greece is "that nobody paid taxes,everybody retired far too early,wages were too high,most people owned at least 2 houses" and numerous other quotes like this. how much of this is true and how much is b###s##t.
Seems to me that Greece's problems were caused in a very similar way to our own. the elite partied like there was no tomorrow,politicans bought votes by promising to get pot-holes filled,fast-tracking planning permission,obtaining medical cards and disability allowances for people that were in perfect health,facilitating college grants for the children of well-off farmers who were able to "cook their books"
And now the people that worked and paid their taxes through all of this are asked to pick up the tab for all of this corruption.
Like to hear more of your views.!!

Monty Burnz

washman3 wrote: »

interesting to hear you points. for the past 2 years all we have heard about Greece is "that nobody paid taxes,everybody retired far too early,wages were too high,most people owned at least 2 houses" and numerous other quotes like this. how much of this is true and how much is b###s##t.

I don't think it's bull at all. I imagine the PAYE folks who had zero choice paid their taxes, and that was just about it. Have you read this article? It's very interesting, and I think you'll be amazed. Their problems were caused in a completely different way to ours.

zootroid

Monty Burnz wrote: »

I don't think it's bull at all. I imagine the PAYE folks who had zero choice paid their taxes, and that was just about it. Have you read this article? It's very interesting, and I think you'll be amazed. Their problems were caused in a completely different way to ours.

Read that article a few months ago, very interesting

McDave

Irish Aris wrote: »

Well, we wouldn't know if there are any political forces to put us back on track, because the majority of Greeks kept voting for PASOK or Nea Dimokratia for the last 35 years. Unofficial polls done the last month saw a tendency towards people voting for various parties. If that were to happen, we would have a parliament with 6,7 maybe 8 parties and it would make it very difficult for a coalition to happen. But, precedents have shown that at the last minute most people will still vote for the 2 aforementioned parties who, at the time, are trying to convince the people that if one of the two is not elected again, it is the end for Greece.
I am pretty sure that many people will buy it. . .and many of them will be those who protested in front of the parliament. . .

Too bad I won't be able to vote. . .

It's a real dilemma IA. Time is short. But it's been a crisis for a long time in Greece. Instead of inspiration or simple boring competence, all we seem to see from Greece is impotent rage and protest.

I would have thought at this stage there would be a voice proposing fair public administration, reasonable tax collection and a clampdown on corruption. But no. What do we get? Anti-austerity rhetoric. That's posturing.

I'm personally in favour of the broadest EU church. If only in the hope that the less developed states are motivated to improve themselves. However, I get a real sense that the Balkans really is different. And in a bad way. And that that is Greece's real level.

I also get a sense that, contrary to the revolt-against-austerity narrative in the aftermath of the Greek and French votes, public opinion is starting to run against Greece. When taxpayers decide it's better to cut Greece loose and start afresh, then Greeks really have to be worried. That's one tanker they won't be able to turn around.

Irish Aris

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Sorry, that was just a bad joke to be honest.

oops. . .sorry, I didn't realise that. . .it's just that this whole situation in Greece is so disappointing/frustrating. . .

Irish Aris

Thanks a million everybody for sharing thoughts on this. It’s good to know where we stand on other nation’s opinion.
My disappointment becomes bigger because I can’t really contradict you on what you are saying. Granted, some of the points are generalisations that not relate to the whole population but as I said before, part of Greeks brought everybody down. I guess our share of the blame is that we did nothing to stop it (or, at least try to), we were naïve enough to think we would be alright in the end.
My frustration becomes even bigger because, when I moved to Ireland last October, I came in the idea that I will stay and work here for 3-4 years and then go back to Greece and continue my life. 7 months later my idea is that I never want to go back. . .ever. . .because Ireland looks like a paradise compared to Greece. . .(OK, what I am about to say is totally humiliating for me but. . .I even checked the department of justice website to find the requirements if I want to apply for Irish Citizenship). If it weren’t for so many people back home, family and friends, who are working like normal people do and don’t cheat/steal and have a hard time, I wouldn’t give a cent about my own country. . .again , very disappointing. . .
(apologies everyone for the personal breakout. . .)
Washman3, I am not sure our problems are similar. I don’t know the details on what’s the story in Ireland, but the general idea around was that you had a main specific problem with banks and real estate. So, to my eyes, it’s easier to find a solution to it. Greece’s problem is so widespread, that you don’t even know where to begin. Some of the characteristics you mention, though, are indeed similar, namely transactional status between governments and voters.
Monty Burnz, I didn’t read the article, it’s too long. But the minute I read the word Vatopedi, it did for me. One of the biggest scandals in recent years. And I have a more general issue with Greek Orthodox church. They are in a very unique spot: they are practically a company (VRN, tax office and all), actually every single church/monastery has its own VRN. Huge property, in amounts of billions Euro. In my previous work in Greece, we actually rent the floor we were in from a monastery in Agio Oros, paid 10000 euro a month. All these monasteries, church in general, are exempt of taxes. Completely. Based on a law that PASOK voted back in the 80’s. Later on, early 90’s, there was another law brought in the Greek parliament that wanted to reinstate the taxation for church and was actually voted, but no government dared to enforce it. In the meantime, the Greek church, based on something effected many many decades ago that everything in a 100 metres perimeter of a church belongs to the church, sued cities/municipals, claiming ground. I’d say, if we manage to put this mess in order, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to start taxing the church. We are talking hundreds of millions of income for the state on a yearly basis. But only after we put the mess to order, otherwise any money coming in might not be used for practical purposes.
Not declaring myself expert, but I have some basic background in economics, and I thought of the following scenario. Right now Greece has public property that’s sitting there, nothing happening. Some of it in very nice areas, close to sea etc. Why don’t they just attract foreign investors to come and use it with the only term that they will use Greek people as employees. That way you start to develop and you fight unemployment (which currently is 22%, 1.5 million people unemployed). It’s a simple enough plan, but if someone like me can think of something, surely all those big heads around Greece and Europe can come up with much better plans.
Am I sounding naïve right now?

paddy0090

McDave wrote: »

....Instead of inspiration or simple boring competence, all we seem to see from Greece is impotent rage and protest.

We don't seem to get much of either in Ireland! There's a bit of the pot calling the kettle black here. None of our PS unions have been as directly affected by the austerity as the Greeks PS despite our deficit being bigger. And let's not forget the election posturing of both govt parties.

I would have thought at this stage there would be a voice proposing fair public administration, reasonable tax collection and a clampdown on corruption. But no. What do we get? Anti-austerity rhetoric. That's posturing.

Lots of people want these things in Ireland as they do in Greece if you read any number of articles quoting citizens.

• This is debatable - while administration is broadly fair there is still some areas of public life where the govt of the day stuffs in its' buddies. Also it's still too big.
• The property tax has been an unmitigated disaster only half of the public have paid.
• Moriarty; Mahon ;Anglo.

We're four years into this recession and we face a second bailout, which will likely feature some of the measures enacted in Greece. It's a premature to deem it a success seeing as the economy is again shrinking. Pretending that all's well and saying the economy will grow despite the best available evidence is also posturing.

I also get a sense that, contrary to the revolt-against-austerity narrative in the aftermath of the Greek and French votes, public opinion is starting to run against Greece. When taxpayers decide it's better to cut Greece loose and start afresh, then Greeks really have to be worried. That's one tanker they won't be able to turn around.

That's true, but then the public were always against the bailouts to some extent. What has changed now is that the banks have been sufficently firewalled against a second default so the EUs elites no longer care and are confident enough to let it go.