Next Snow Event - Mid Jan? Worse than last 2?

johngalway

vibe666 wrote: »

hate to point out teh obvious, but...
it says right there. he's a postman in donegal, where do you think he posts? :pac:

sorry, couldn't resist. it's all AH's fault, they've corrupted my innocence.

What's the postal version of being racist/ageist, vibist! :pac:

oterra

oterra wrote: »

Just wondering how long under the current conditions would it take a greenland or a scandi high to establish itself?
What are the ideal conditions for one to develop?Can it happen over a space of days?

Yes it can happen in a matter of days but it can be forecast or a trend showing it or anything developing up to 10 days ahead or more.
The end result might be different to what was shown consistently in an FI chart but you could end up with a broadly the same pattern

Just to give you an idea of how important forecaster intuition is and how no run or model is supreme,todays U.S forecaster analysis is worth a read.
I'll quote some of it below,where you can see they are taking what they believe to be the case from a blend of models differing on details,running with bits of one and bits of the other etc.
You'll often see Mt doing the same.
Thats why when we see posters here at a time when we are in say a severe spell of cold,getting upset that a run,an individual run is a downgrade or an upgrade,they are getting upset over nothing.
It doesn't work like that.

THE 00Z CANADIAN IS OUT PHASE WITH THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SYSTEM
CROSSING CANADA FROM MONDAY ONWARD...ENDING UP WITH A SLOWER
PROGRESSION...SO DID NOT USE ITS SOLUTION. THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
WERE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...AND DID NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. USED A COMPROMISE OF
THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD
TO GET MORE REALISTIC PRESSURES...THOUGH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE
MOVED BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SURFACE LOWS WHICH SLOWED DOWN THE
LOW/FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED OVER THE GEFS
MEAN FOR PRESSURE VERIFICATION REASONS. THIS KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH OUR PREVIOUS DAY OF SOLUTIONS.

link

BLIZZARD7

oterra wrote: »

Just wondering how long under the current conditions would it take a greenland or a scandi high to establish itself?
What are the ideal conditions for one to develop?Can it happen over a space of days?

To put it simply, a Greenland high is unlikely to develop under the current conditions, same goes for a scandi high. There are no set ideal conditions but generally a southerly tracking jet stream, deeply negative AO/NAO and low pressure to the south of us would usually do the job. Yes it can develop very quickly but as BB said you would be able to see indications of it a few days in advance, maybe 4 days or maybe 15 days. It all depends really.





Dan

Not

Irish Steve wrote: »

... I'd have to wonder at the madness of some of the lemmings driving normal vehicles so slowly they can't even get up a minor slope in second gear, drop to first and spend the next 10 minutes spinning like a maniac and going nowhere...

I share your sentiments entirely.

Irish Steve wrote: »

...can't understand why some people here can't cope with more than 15Kph in a straight line...

Believe me, that's a big mystery to me as well

Irish Steve wrote: »

...OK, there are people who don't know how to use a 4 x 4 correctly...

I think the kind of driver I'm refering to are those who don't know how to use a vehicle correctly, let's not confine 'vehicle' to 4X4's. My mention of 4X4's and vans was born purely out of the predominant type of vehicle involved in my encounters with high speed 'snow ploughs', ice breakers, speed skaters and tail huggers.

At least the 15kmh roadblocks only spin wheels when they get it all wrong...

Irish Steve wrote: »

... but there are also (a lot of) people that do know how to drive in snow, and ice, and have done it safely for years, (not necessarily in Ireland)..

undoubtedly:cool:

Irish Steve wrote: »

...Some of the 4 x 4's and vans driving in the loose stuff are actually helping, by spreading it before it freezes into a solid lump, which helps the salt to keep the underlyng layers open...

I'll take your word for it (blinded by the science of it all):pac:

Irish Steve wrote: »

...Anyway, this is a weather forum, not a motoring forum, so end of rant...

Too true. I'll shut up now.

John Mason

i am going to set up my weather station that Santa bought at the weekend - hopefully there will some nice weather conditions to get me started.

my google weather globe is showing snow for monday - so fingers crossed

BEASTERLY

Have you seen tonights ECM, pure work of art, hopefully not fiction though:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

http://http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

From 192 its the best charts so far this winter, and thats saying something!!

NIALL D

tasty

hopefully more snow on the way:D

SquallyShowers

I used to love to see the snow, but that was before the last snow event.

The babies were off creche for ages and then the Christmas holidays came so they were off for ages more. We couldn't go anywhere due to the state of the roads, we couldn't really go outside as it was too slippy for them and I really thought I would crack up (and they probably felt the same way...)

So for the first time ever, I am hoping for no snow.

I'll probably be shot! Sorry all...

Iancar29

Nothing interesting on the charts 2day.... or can anyone glady prove me wrong?............. please?

ninebeanrows

Iancar29 wrote: »

Nothing interesting on the charts 2day.... or can anyone glady prove me wrong?............. please?

ECM is not bad in FI

eskimocat

Iancar29 wrote: »

Nothing interesting on the charts 2day.... or can anyone glady prove me wrong?............. please?

Yes, anyone?? anyone??? seems to be radio silence here... :cool:

Come on someone.....pretty please

pistolpetes11

Yup gone v quite again today , well here is a snippet from the NW forum !

From Netweather wrote:

We remain in the South Westerly flow which has forecast pretty well from the models, bringing generally mild temperatures and Tropical Maritime air from the Southern Atlantic. It remains wet and unsettled over the rest of this weekend, especially for Western and North Western parts of the UK; this does bring the risk of further flooding in prone areas. On my last post in here, during the mid part of the week, I hinted at a potential pattern change early next week. Originally there were signs of very cold weather originating from the north and a mini Arctic blast. This has since been toned down, however it should still turn less mild with some Polar Maritime air on a Westerly flow.

On to each of the models in turn.

GFS (12Hz) – By Monday, winds slackening, turning westerly in Northern parts of the UK with Polar Maritime air, winds very light further south as Pressure tries to build from both the South West and South East. Pressure gradually building so that by Tuesday a weak area of High Pressure (which extends to Eastern Europe) covers the UK. 850HPA temps sub -5c for Scotland but milder further south so around 0c around Southern Devon. By Wednesday, the High Pressure is now over the UK and extends further north, and on the eastern edge of the High pressure, northerly winds bring sub -5c 850 HPA air to much of Eastern England. But this does mean that away from the east coast it should be mostly dry, with some much needed dry and bright or sunny weather for western areas.

After this signs of the High Pressure sinking with the cold air being cutoff, (and diverted across mainland Europe including across the Alps and Pyrenees). After this the general pattern of High Pressure and settled weather over the UK is becoming more established on the models. The question being the exact location of the High Pressure, and this will considerably affect the likely temperature over the UK Into the medium term. As an example, this run moves the High to the South West allowing milder air from the West to South West, but staying generally settled.

UKMO (12Hz) - Winds also turning westerly over much of the UK by Monday according to UKMO, quite a slack flow generally with pressure rising slowly from the South. Despite the general rise in pressure, a trough is forecast to push up from the South West giving some light rain over South Western areas into Tuesday afternoon. 850HPA temps similar to those of the GFS 850HPA temps sub -5c for Scotland but milder further south with 0c around Northern France.

By Wednesday, UKMO has High Pressure over the UK, this minimising the threat of colder air from the North pushing in for Eastern Areas (as per GFS). Over subsequent runs, it builds the High Pressure over the UK, so that by Friday, the High Pressure is centred over Southern England with a pressure of 1040mb. This would probably bring average temps, and certainly dry and settled weather for most areas.

ECM (12Hz) - Winds also turning westerly over much of the UK by Monday according to ECM, quite a slack flow generally with pressure rising slowly from the South, a small trough to the South West keeps winds lighter over southern areas. However unlike UKMO this is not set to push north to the UK. Pressure then builds from the South west on Tuesday, with HP on top of the UK by Wednesday. Cooler everywhere, and like the GFS, a northerly wind for Eastern areas, brings in air sub -5c at 850HPA for Eastern parts of the UK.

The High Pressure slowly moves South West wards, so that by Friday, it is centred over SW Ireland, with the cold air over Continental Europe as per GFS. ECM then moves the High west on Saturdays and it links up a surface Greenland High with a bitterly cold Northerly over the UK. Even though the Greenland High seems transient, The UK remains very cold right out to T+240, with a bitterly cold flow from the NE.

So in summary, turning cooler into next week, and settling down with High pressure by midweek. After this, temperatures depend on where the High Pressure moves.

ciaran67

mountainy man wrote: »

Those were the best days of my life, ooh yeah....:D

69?


wasnt an invitation btw

dsmythy

So did the animals lie to the postie or what? Any updates?

yes they lied

Pangea

Looks like the postman prediction for snow and MTs outlook of potential snow for early february are not going to pass, A once off Im sure

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Looks like the postman prediction for snow and MTs outlook of potential snow for early february are not going to pass, A once off Im sure

So you mean M.T. and the postman are human afterall:eek: It seems not even the great Joe Bastardi got it all right this winter either.

mike65

Cruel bump!

TheFairy

Snow flakes in the air today in Fermanagh.