Next Snow Event - Mid Jan? Worse than last 2?

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

yes i'd be confident of more snow in january too:pac:

i wonder though did he really say he expects the next cold spell to be colder than December?? the media might well have exaggerated what he said.
.

Nacho I dont know where Rodar08 got that part, but I wouldnt quote the postman as saying that unless I heard it from him or had a direct link .

Your spot on, media and newspapers can take a perfectly good level headed comment and then overhype it to grab attention.
From what I gather he said there would be more snow later this month ,lets leave it at that until we see a proper quote.

Rodar08

He didn't say it would be colder, I think he was just meaning the snow may be worse than the last 2 events. I can't quote word for word what he said and we can't get a copy of the interview which was on Highland Radio on the 4th of January as Highland Radio don't put links up for their shows. However, he was interviewed live on air by Shaun Doherty and he did say the next cold spell would be from mid January and worse than the last 2. That is all

Big Daddy Cool ... what are you even on about? ... I'm just sharing what the Donegal Postman said. jeeez!!! :rolleyes: :cool:

Not

Rodar08 wrote: »

He didn't say it would be colder, I think he was just meaning the snow may be worse than the last 2 events. I can't quote word for word what he said and we can't get a copy of the interview which was on Highland Radio on the 4th of January as Highland Radio don't put links up for their shows. However, he was interviewed live on air by Shaun Doherty and he did say the next cold spell would be from mid January and worse than the last 2. That is all

Big Daddy Cool ... what are you even on about? ... I'm just sharing what the Donegal Postman said. jeeez!!! :rolleyes: :cool:

4th January ? Sure that's nearly a week out of date ! In weather forecasting outlooks change completely within hours, never mind the best part of week.

Big Daddy Cool

Rodar08 wrote: »

Big Daddy Cool ... what are you even on about? ... I'm just sharing what the Donegal Postman said. jeeez!!! :rolleyes: :cool:

i never mentioned anything about your post rod

francie81

Rodar08 wrote: »

The Donegal Postman (Donegal Snowman as I like to call him) has said we are to get another snow event from mid January which will be worse than previous events this winter. Anyone agree? Early to be sure of course but any sign of it being a possibility at this point?

I for one LOVE the snow so I'm looking forward to it should it happen :D;):pac:

I believe next week would be technically mid-jan which is down for routinely gulf stream weather fronts so unless theirs a dramatic change in wind direction your soo called 'donegal snowman' notion will be somewhat off.

H2UMrsRobinson

There seems to be a lot of apres-snow anxiety in the air...! Perhaps if we all chill out the weather may follow suit ...;-)

Pangea

francie81 wrote: »

I believe next week would be technically mid-jan which is down for routinely gulf stream weather fronts so unless theirs a dramatic change in wind direction your soo called 'donegal snowman' notion will be somewhat off.

Oh give over, theres no exact date, he said roughly mid January.

francie81

Pangea wrote: »

Oh give over, theres no exact date, he said roughly mid January.

Good for him am just going by long range forecasts rather than being smart.

BEASTERLY

Does the 20th count as mid month?

Pangea

francie81 wrote: »

Good for him am just going by long range forecasts rather than being smart.

I was refering to you being very techincal ,if the snow comes on the 22nd doesnt mean that the postman was wrong because its not techincally 'mid January'. He saying the signs are that there will be more snow to come before January is out. Even the model experts forecasts of cold can be delayed by a week give or take and have been in the past.

nacho libre

Currently from day 7 it looks like north westerly will be setting in- granted they will likely be brief and will not deliver severe cold, but it will become colder should the current charts verify.

M.T. Cranium

The conventional models have been wavering on strength of blocking but there has been a general theme past three days to show a seven-day zonal interval (half time ?) followed by a return to blocking, but with some scenarios indicating mainly northerly flow and some bringing the Siberian high west into Scandinavia.

The key time period is 19-21 Jan ... strong events on 11-12, 15 and 17 Jan all fall into the zonal interval and then a strong event 19-20 with full moon runs into the transitional upper air signal. Think it may reverse fairly quickly and so the Donegal postman may end up looking good (our fates are pretty much intertwined at this point).

I would remind everyone that solar angle means almost nothing to snowfall climatology in Ireland or the U.K., some of the worst snowstorms have been in February (1933, 1947, 1963, 2009 for example). In fact the peak of the snowfall season is probably the first half of February on a statistical basis. If you've only had half your seasonal snowfall to date, then, just sayin' ... :eek:

I'll offer 80% probability that there will be another major snowfall event in Ireland this winter, defined as 10 cms of snow or more at four or more of the eighteen stations in met.ie first-order reporting stations, or 20 cms or more at any two. Of course, that could be Dublin, Casement, Mullingar and Oak Park, leaving 80% of the country with no snow.

When's the most likely time for a snowstorm and return to severe cold? I would say around 24 Jan to 10 Feb, that period shows up in my research as having a cold set of analogues and high blocking index. But the window of opportunity opens around the 20th of January. Doesn't make any difference how mild it gets this week, 16 January 1947 was a very mild day too. :cool:

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The conventional models have been wavering on strength of blocking but there has been a general theme past three days to show a seven-day zonal interval (half time ?) followed by a return to blocking, but with some scenarios indicating mainly northerly flow and some bringing the Siberian high west into Scandinavia.

The key time period is 19-21 Jan ... strong events on 11-12, 15 and 17 Jan all fall into the zonal interval and then a strong event 19-20 with full moon runs into the transitional upper air signal. Think it may reverse fairly quickly and so the Donegal postman may end up looking good (our fates are pretty much intertwined at this point).

I would remind everyone that solar angle means almost nothing to snowfall climatology in Ireland or the U.K., some of the worst snowstorms have been in February (1933, 1947, 1963, 2009 for example). In fact the peak of the snowfall season is probably the first half of February on a statistical basis. If you've only had half your seasonal snowfall to date, then, just sayin' ... :eek:

I'll offer 80% probability that there will be another major snowfall event in Ireland this winter, defined as 10 cms of snow or more at four or more of the eighteen stations in met.ie first-order reporting stations, or 20 cms or more at any two. Of course, that could be Dublin, Casement, Mullingar and Oak Park, leaving 80% of the country with no snow.

When's the most likely time for a snowstorm and return to severe cold? I would say around 27 Jan to 10 Feb, that period shows up in my research as having a cold set of analogues and high blocking index. But the window of opportunity opens around the 20th of January. Doesn't make any difference how mild it gets this week, 16 January 1947 was a very mild day too. :cool:

M.T. you have obviously not seen the posts over on netweather officially declaring Winter to be over now that we will have a week of Atlantic domination:pac:

Su Campu

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'll offer 80% probability that there will be another major snowfall event in Ireland this winter, defined as 10 cms of snow or more at four or more of the eighteen stations in met.ie first-order reporting stations, or 20 cms or more at any two. Of course, that could be Dublin, Casement, Mullingar and Oak Park, leaving 80% of the country with no snow.

Only 7 stations are manned and give snow depths - Belmullet, Valentia, Casement, and Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Knock airports. The other 11 stations are automatic and don't report snow depths.

Of course we do have Danno!!

Danno

LOL Su! Which reminds me to update a thread on here...

WolfeIRE

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

Joe B on the coming weeks

steveLFC24

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

im not having a pop at anybody, im on about everybody who forecast it as ''potentially disruptive'', and i know people were effected by it, i seen some of the posts on friday night, i was effected by it, i got quite a bit of snow in fact and its still covering the lawns and garden, but by no means was disruptive.

my point is People should'nt post things about a weather event so far in advance from the actual event until they are certain that this will be the case because believe it or not, i know people who read these posts and actually plan around it.

Key word being 'potentially'. In other words it was a possibilty that it could be disruptive. Nobody ever said it was a dead cert. I for one who rather a forecast over-exaggerated the potential for snow. At least that way I can make any necessary precautions/arrangements (I travel by plane a lot and need to know these things).

Rodar08

Oh!!! I feel so humbled/honoured/excited that M.T. has written on my thread. Was delighted to scroll down and see that post :D:D Thanks M.T. .... It's almost like a celebrity came to my house for tea!!! :P lol

francie81

Pangea wrote: »

I was refering to you being very techincal ,if the snow comes on the 22nd doesnt mean that the postman was wrong because its not techincally 'mid January'. He saying the signs are that there will be more snow to come before January is out. Even the model experts forecasts of cold can be delayed by a week give or take and have been in the past.

Am not really bothered nor am I here to argue the point of weather predictions but it just seemed to me that the original message came from someone who wanted it to snow no big deal.

dsmythy

The postie could just look at some of the models and make that prediction. He kind of binds himself somewhat saying it will be worse than the last two events because it would take an extraordinary few days to manage that. Does he count himself as correct if 1cm falls in Donegal before the end of the month?

weisses

Rodar08 wrote: »

Oh!!! I feel so humbled/honoured/excited that M.T. has written on my thread. Was delighted to scroll down and see that post :D:D Thanks M.T. .... It's almost like a celebrity came to my house for tea!!! :P lol

OMG ........ weather groupies :eek:

faktisperminute

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The conventional models have been wavering on strength of blocking but there has been a general theme past three days to show a seven-day zonal interval (half time ?) followed by a return to blocking, but with some scenarios indicating mainly northerly flow and some bringing the Siberian high west into Scandinavia.

The key time period is 19-21 Jan ... strong events on 11-12, 15 and 17 Jan all fall into the zonal interval and then a strong event 19-20 with full moon runs into the transitional upper air signal. Think it may reverse fairly quickly and so the Donegal postman may end up looking good (our fates are pretty much intertwined at this point).

I would remind everyone that solar angle means almost nothing to snowfall climatology in Ireland or the U.K., some of the worst snowstorms have been in February (1933, 1947, 1963, 2009 for example). In fact the peak of the snowfall season is probably the first half of February on a statistical basis. If you've only had half your seasonal snowfall to date, then, just sayin' ... :eek:

I'll offer 80% probability that there will be another major snowfall event in Ireland this winter, defined as 10 cms of snow or more at four or more of the eighteen stations in met.ie first-order reporting stations, or 20 cms or more at any two. Of course, that could be Dublin, Casement, Mullingar and Oak Park, leaving 80% of the country with no snow.

When's the most likely time for a snowstorm and return to severe cold? I would say around 24 Jan to 10 Feb, that period shows up in my research as having a cold set of analogues and high blocking index. But the window of opportunity opens around the 20th of January. Doesn't make any difference how mild it gets this week, 16 January 1947 was a very mild day too. :cool:

OH THANK YOU M.T YOU HAVE BLESSED US WITH YOUR GOLDEN UPDATE OH THANK YOU THE WEATHER GOD

DarkJager

Hope this cold spell is just that - a bit of ice and cold temperatures and nothing else. I'm sick to death of the snow now, it's nothing but a total inconvienience and pain in the arse for anyone who has to travel to work or drive long distances. I hope its gone for this winter...hell, I hope it never ever comes back but thats just wishful thinking.

beco

Deleted User wrote: »

Well using his methods,the robins are still very tame and coming into me looking for food despite the green.
There is no evidence outside of extreme fi model wise.

My own view based on what I've seen is that nature is a great leveler,meaning we've had our extreme cold now and she'll want to balance things out from here on in with milder weather.

What would the donegal postman thing of a mad possessed
wasp(RIP) in my bathroom last night at 11pm??? He was huge and banging off walls and ceilings. Is summer coming????

nacho libre

I really can't wait for this dreary milder weather to be over already, we have enough of it during the year. May the snow return as soon as possible!

Mobhi1

nacho libre wrote: »

I really can't wait for this dreary milder weather to be over already, we have enough of it during the year. May the snow return as soon as possible!

The damp dreary mild stuff is depressing and it doesn't necessarily feel much warmer!

glossy

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The conventional models have been wavering on strength of blocking but there has been a general theme past three days to show a seven-day zonal interval (half time ?) followed by a return to blocking, but with some scenarios indicating mainly northerly flow and some bringing the Siberian high west into Scandinavia.

The key time period is 19-21 Jan ... strong events on 11-12, 15 and 17 Jan all fall into the zonal interval and then a strong event 19-20 with full moon runs into the transitional upper air signal. Think it may reverse fairly quickly and so the Donegal postman may end up looking good (our fates are pretty much intertwined at this point).

I would remind everyone that solar angle means almost nothing to snowfall climatology in Ireland or the U.K., some of the worst snowstorms have been in February (1933, 1947, 1963, 2009 for example). In fact the peak of the snowfall season is probably the first half of February on a statistical basis. If you've only had half your seasonal snowfall to date, then, just sayin' ... :eek:

I'll offer 80% probability that there will be another major snowfall event in Ireland this winter, defined as 10 cms of snow or more at four or more of the eighteen stations in met.ie first-order reporting stations, or 20 cms or more at any two. Of course, that could be Dublin, Casement, Mullingar and Oak Park, leaving 80% of the country with no snow.

When's the most likely time for a snowstorm and return to severe cold? I would say around 24 Jan to 10 Feb, that period shows up in my research as having a cold set of analogues and high blocking index. But the window of opportunity opens around the 20th of January. Doesn't make any difference how mild it gets this week, 16 January 1947 was a very mild day too. :cool:

:eek: anything after the 24th Jan thanks

francie81

DarkJager wrote: »

Hope this cold spell is just that - a bit of ice and cold temperatures and nothing else. I'm sick to death of the snow now, it's nothing but a total inconvienience and pain in the arse for anyone who has to travel to work or drive long distances. I hope its gone for this winter...hell, I hope it never ever comes back but thats just wishful thinking.

Am closing my eyes and thinking of tenerife **** Irish weather:D

midiverb

Mobhi1 wrote: »

The damp dreary mild stuff is depressing and it doesn't necessarily feel much warmer!

100% agree, the heavy snow had a lovely insulating affect on the house here, last few night however were horrible. The wind cuts through this place like a knife!

mike65

It will from late tomorrow