Next Snow Event - Mid Jan? Worse than last 2?

Rodar08 · 09-01-2011 3:42pm #1

The Donegal Postman (Donegal Snowman as I like to call him) has said we are to get another snow event from mid January which will be worse than previous events this winter. Anyone agree? Early to be sure of course but any sign of it being a possibility at this point?

I for one LOVE the snow so I'm looking forward to it should it happen

:D;):pac:

09-01-2011 3:46pm

Well using his methods,the robins are still very tame and coming into me looking for food despite the green.
There is no evidence outside of extreme fi model wise.

My own view based on what I've seen is that nature is a great leveler,meaning we've had our extreme cold now and she'll want to balance things out from here on in with milder weather.

BEASTERLY · 09-01-2011 3:54pm

Deleted User wrote: »

My own view based on what I've seen is that nature is a great leveler,meaning we've had our extreme cold now and she'll want to balance things out from here on in with milder weather.

Winter of '47?

mountainy man · 09-01-2011 4:01pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Winter of '47?

Those were the best days of my life, ooh yeah....:D

Sponge Bob · 09-01-2011 4:15pm

What is the sign?? Muskrats hibernating in his postbag or something ??

snaps · 09-01-2011 4:18pm

BBQ weather here today, glourious spring like day. The problem with snow events towards the end of Jan onwards is the sun is so much stronger. Cant see it happening but you never know.

BEASTERLY · 09-01-2011 4:22pm

snaps wrote: »

BBQ weather here today, glourious spring like day. The problem with snow events towards the end of Jan onwards is the sun is so much stronger. Cant see it happening but you never know.

Its just a little bit stronger than the end of November plus sea temps will be lower by the end of January than they are now.

Rodar08 · 09-01-2011 4:22pm

It's sure not the regular way to forecast our weather Sponge Bob but he has been proved right on a number of occasions using his alternative methods. Who are we to say he's wrong really. Apparently he's been studying these methods for a long time. There might be something in it, there might be nothing in it. Man had to start somewhere when trying to forecast the weather and it certainly wasn't clicking buttons and refreshing charts/models on a screen!!

It will be very interesting to see what pans out ....

Oops ... slight edit ... I know forecasting the weather is majorly complex and scientific so didn't mean to sound flippant there when I said about clicking buttons and refreshing

Pangea · 09-01-2011 4:56pm

Rodar08 wrote: »

The Donegal Postman (Donegal Snowman as I like to call him) has said we are to get another snow event from mid January which will be worse than previous events this winter. Anyone agree? Early to be sure of course but any sign of it being a possibility at this point?

I for one LOVE the snow so I'm looking forward to it should it happen :D;):pac:

Where did you hear him say that, have you got a link or anything..

johngalway · 09-01-2011 5:02pm

Pangea wrote: »

Where did you hear him say that, have you got a link or anything..

I also would like a link, if there's somewhere he posts, or info from him, is posted regularly please.

Rodar08 · 09-01-2011 5:04pm

Pangea I heard it on Highland in the week. He was on talking to Shaun Doherty about it. There's a comment on the Shaun Doherty Facebook page about it..

esposito · 09-01-2011 5:29pm

More like the end of Jan I would say. This milder air will take a while to shift.

Elmer Blooker · 09-01-2011 5:35pm

:rolleyes: mid Jan is only six days away and there is absolutely no cold weather in sight. I can see that that HP in the general W.Med/Iberia/Azores area not moving much for the next month or more unfortunately.
This winter resembles last summer- all the good weather came in May and June and all we got was Atlantic muck in July and August. This winter all the good weather came in Nov and Dec and you know the rest for the rest of Jan and Feb.

thetonynator · 09-01-2011 6:10pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

:rolleyes: mid Jan is only six days away and there is absolutely no cold weather in sight. I can see that that HP in the general W.Med/Iberia/Azores area not moving much for the next month or more unfortunately.
This winter resembles last summer- all the good weather came in May and June and all we got was Atlantic muck in July and August. This winter all the good weather came in Nov and Dec and you know the rest for the rest of Jan and Feb.

Mid january is really the period from the end of the first week to the thbeginning of the last week, i.e., the 8th to 24th.

Big Daddy Cool · 09-01-2011 6:12pm

:rolleyes: oh no not another potentially disruptive snow event on the horizon, ive only just got over fridays event :rolleyes:

PCPhoto · 09-01-2011 6:14pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Winter of '47?

I believe the music quote is " back in the summer of sixty nine" ....oh wait this isn't after hours.

(runs back to my shadowey corner)

yup ... cold weather coming .... according to sources ...could last up to a month....due to arrive around mid/late Jan.

thetonynator · 09-01-2011 6:16pm

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

:rolleyes: oh no not another potentially disruptive snow event on the horizon, ive only just got over fridays event :rolleyes:

no need to be sarcastic, apart from the fact that the forecaster in question has (needlessly) apologised for his mistake, much of the country was affected by fridays event.

Big Daddy Cool · 09-01-2011 6:33pm

thetonynator wrote: »

no need to be sarcastic, apart from the fact that the forecaster in question has (needlessly) apologised for his mistake, much of the country was affected by fridays event.

im not having a pop at anybody, im on about everybody who forecast it as ''potentially disruptive'', and i know people were effected by it, i seen some of the posts on friday night, i was effected by it, i got quite a bit of snow in fact and its still covering the lawns and garden, but by no means was disruptive.

my point is People should'nt post things about a weather event so far in advance from the actual event until they are certain that this will be the case because believe it or not, i know people who read these posts and actually plan around it.

Sonovagun · 09-01-2011 7:21pm

If you go out into your garden and dig a hole, the further down you find worms the colder it's gonna get. Best weather indicator is a worm if you ask me.

Pangea · 09-01-2011 7:26pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

:rolleyes: mid Jan is only six days away and there is absolutely no cold weather in sight..

People have been talking about cold weather returning around mid january period for the past week or two, I suggest you look at the model thread.

Rodar08 wrote: »

The Donegal Postman (Donegal Snowman as I like to call him) has said we are to get another snow event FROM mid January

jambofc · 09-01-2011 7:27pm

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

my point is People should'nt post things about a weather event so far in advance from the actual event until they are certain that this will be the case because believe it or not, i know people who read these posts and actually plan around it.

that's what this forum is for,forecasting weather and there is nothing certain about weather at any time scale.

09-01-2011 7:28pm

If the Donegal Postman say's it shall be so, then I would tend to believe it shall be so.
He didnt get to be a legend for nothing

Pangea · 09-01-2011 7:34pm

From the Shaun Doherty facebook page.

"Weather Predictor and Postman Michael Gallagher reckons theres more Snow to come, .......will be here roughly the middle of
January."

Thats that then :pac:

Not · 09-01-2011 7:46pm

Pangea wrote: »

People have been talking about cold weather returning around mid january period for the past week or two, I suggest you look at the model thread.

Latest on that thread is that they're not all that optimistic atm of that panning out. I think there is definite shift in the seasons and that this winter has all ready played its best hand. Mr postman was apparently taken by surprise about how quickly the last spell we had was wiped away by the Atlantic, so I'm not sure I'd rely on him forecasting another one arriving this month. Not that I would rely on anyone tbh given the unpredictable nature of weather. Though he might be right for Donegal about snow given Donegal seems to get snow more often than anywhere else.

John.Icy · 09-01-2011 7:55pm

Up to the 12z yesterday, I would be agreeing with this postman, with really good signs of another potentially severe spell of cold and snow on the horizon. However, after the last few runs, there are increased signs of the Atlantic holding on. An improved 12z gives some hope, but the Ensembles are moving upwards now, heading towards the milder operational run, with far fewer very cold runs, ie; uppers falling to or below -10.

Maybe, well hopefully, its just the usual weekend changes during cold spells, and well see something different come tomorrow.

nacho libre · 09-01-2011 8:02pm

Pangea wrote: »

From the Shaun Doherty facebook page.

"Weather Predictor and Postman Michael Gallagher reckons theres more Snow to come, .......will be here roughly the middle of
January."

Thats that then :pac:

yes i'd be confident of more snow in january too:pac:

i wonder though did he really say he expects the next cold spell to be colder than December?? the media might well have exaggerated what he said.

assuming that is in fact what he said, it would take something truly exceptional to be colder than December. there is no support for it currently from the models and M.T has stated a few times that he doesn't really think we'll get it as cold as it was in December again.

Big Daddy Cool · 09-01-2011 8:07pm

jambofc wrote: »

that's what this forum is for,forecasting weather and there is nothing certain about weather at any time scale.

i know what this forum is about and how uncertain weather forecasting can be, im sure people will disagree with me and love the whole ''lets hype this forecast up'' i just think putting any word that would be considered an attention grabber in a thread so far ahead of the actual event and then it doesnt happen, is in my opinion unnecessary.

jambofc · 09-01-2011 8:15pm

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

i know what this forum is about and how uncertain weather forecasting can be, im sure people will disagree with me and love the whole ''lets hype this forecast up'' i just think putting any word that would be considered an attention grabber in a thread so far ahead of the actual event and then it doesnt happen, is in my opinion unnecessary.

not really understanding you here,it's a weather forum to talk about live events and future events,if people didn't place future weather model threads there would be no forum,most thread's by experienced poster's are usually relaying what the charts are saying at that time and put there own view on it.

at the height of the extreme weather i agree there was a load of rubbish being posted but not by the more recognised poster's here.

jimmy.d · 09-01-2011 8:19pm

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

i know what this forum is about and how uncertain weather forecasting can be, im sure people will disagree with me and love the whole ''lets hype this forecast up'' i just think putting any word that would be considered an attention grabber in a thread so far ahead of the actual event and then it doesnt happen, is in my opinion unnecessary.

off topic start up another thread if ya want to talk bull****

fizzycyst · 09-01-2011 9:02pm

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

i know what this forum is about and how uncertain weather forecasting can be, im sure people will disagree with me and love the whole ''lets hype this forecast up'' i just think putting any word that would be considered an attention grabber in a thread so far ahead of the actual event and then it doesnt happen, is in my opinion unnecessary.

actually I think it is very necessary. If the experienced posters here start to not say what they actually think just in case it may seem 'hyped up', then what's the point. People coming on to the forum to read the posts should realise that the forecasters do not always get it 100% correct. The fact there are numerous different opinions all the time should make it obvious that nothing is ever certain.
Furthermore, if everyone started keeping there opinions to themselves about what they believe will happen, it would get, well, quite boring to be honest. Those of us who are looking at weather charts for the first time like to see how different forecasts can emerge from different peoples perspective looking at these charts. So yes, I think it's necessary

Su Campu · 09-01-2011 9:27pm

I can't see any sign of cold weather returning for at least the next two weeks as we head into a positive NAO phase. This should erode the positive SST anomalies near Greenland and the Canadian Maritimes, which could serve to prolong the positive NAO. We could potentially see the month out without another northwesterly block, though I can't see this happening. I think the final week in January will be a cold one - how cold is anyone's guess, but with MT's research indices indicating a cold end, it may be a battle between these and an NAO fighting to keep its head above water.

Next Snow Event - Mid Jan? Worse than last 2?

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