Next Snow Event - Mid Jan? Worse than last 2?

Deep Easterly · 10-01-2011 8:03pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I really can't wait for this dreary milder weather to be over already, we have enough of it during the year. May the snow return as soon as possible!

Run for the hills Nacho! big mama warm front heading in tomorrow evening:

It's coming to get you..!

francie81 · 10-01-2011 9:10pm

Mobhi1 wrote: »

The damp dreary mild stuff is depressing and it doesn't necessarily feel much warmer!

Funny that as the stats show more people are depressed come winter time hence less daylight, sub-zero temps which seem to be the trend from here on in. If I had it my way I'd emigrate for the winter to the sun.

nacho libre · 10-01-2011 10:06pm

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Run for the hills Nacho! big mama warm front heading in tomorrow evening:

It's coming to get you..!

I'm off to Lapland for a week so:D

John.Icy · 10-01-2011 10:24pm

Well, atm, a Greenland high looks out of the equation, with NAO going into positive territory. Just yesterday, before the 18z, I had said a Scandi high was out of the eqaution, however, thats the only blocking in the picture atm, and unless there's a change in the NAO or AO, its the way too look for our cold.

The 18z last night, and the ECM 12z today, show what I feel is possibly the twindling hope for cold, the high over Europe ridging gradually North, and moving into Scandi, thus an Easterly. The ECM doesn't go past +240, but the chances would have been that it would have been one heck of a set of charts after that. So were looking for this high to ridge North, set up home in Scandi till March, and have our own modern day 1947

:D:D

Harps · 10-01-2011 11:04pm

Why are met eireann saying 'thankfully' were back to our usual atlantic weather on the forecast a while ago? How is heavy rain and dark dull days better than clear bright days? For one thing I read a while ago that last month had the lowest road deaths ever recorded in the country

And one the above post, having not seen one in my time following this forum, what would an Scandanavian high mean for the country outside the east coast? Obviously it'd bring back the cold but would there be much snow potential for the rest of us?

nacho libre · 11-01-2011 1:44am

Harps wrote: »

Why are met eireann saying 'thankfully' were back to our usual atlantic weather on the forecast a while ago? How is heavy rain and dark dull days better than clear bright days? For one thing I read a while ago that last month had the lowest road deaths ever recorded in the country

And one the above post, having not seen one in my time following this forum, what would an Scandanavian high mean for the country outside the east coast? Obviously it'd bring back the cold but would there be much snow potential for the rest of us?

not really- unless we got the perfect set up of atlantic systems from the south west trying to push the colder air away but failing to do so.
even with this scenario Donegal could stay bone dry. from your perspective you'd be hoping for the winds to swing around to a northerly direction.

DarkJager · 11-01-2011 1:52am

Harps wrote: »

Why are met eireann saying 'thankfully' were back to our usual atlantic weather on the forecast a while ago? How is heavy rain and dark dull days better than clear bright days? For one thing I read a while ago that last month had the lowest road deaths ever recorded in the country

And one the above post, having not seen one in my time following this forum, what would an Scandanavian high mean for the country outside the east coast? Obviously it'd bring back the cold but would there be much snow potential for the rest of us?

I totally agree with them. Who wants to spend 3 hours + driving home in ****ing snow? I.ll take wind and rain any day over that ****. Seriously though, why would anyone who drives a car be wishing for snow? Do they enjoy nearly killing themselves or destroying their car on every bend in the road? I just can't understand why anyone is disapointed that its mild and rainy.

BLIZZARD7 · 11-01-2011 2:09am

Okay, the latest models are in good agreement on mild, wet and windy for the next 7 days, after this is still very uncertain, the models vary wildly but a recurring theme is for cold to return in some way or another...scandi high??....greeny high??...Both ?

or neither??

I don't really know tbh and neither do the guys in NOAA, but my inclination at present would be for cold to return via a scandi high and mid-Atlantic ridge around the 20th of jan. Not much change today other than the AO/NAO ensemble forecasts looking slightly more uncertain-

GFS - AO - Forecast for it to go very deeply negative-

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.mrf.gif

ENSEMBLES - AO - was 90% for positive yesterday, now more like 50%.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

...

GFS - NAO - Slightly negative before going just positive-

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.mrf.gif

ENSEMBLES - NAO - look more promising today in the longer range, with a nice bunch heading for slight negativity.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

These forecasts^^ are not very reliable at 7 days +, as I have noticed them changing quite alot over the last few days, really they change with the models, which are showing no clear path atm...

Stratosphere looks like cooling in general but with a big warming forecast at the 1.0hpa level, might take a while to propagate downwards lol.

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/temps.gif

The GFS runs today weren't great tbh and the ECM wasn't amazing either but still showed signs of a scandi high, in deep FI.

ECM 12z at +240hrs-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-240.GIF?10-0

Now the GFS 06z was quite good for cold potential, 12z = horror show, and the 18z = I like! In early FI...

+240hrs 18z GFS, nice blocking, dead Atlantic lol.

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-240.png?18

After this looks somewhat unlikely to happen and dosent look synoptically right to me, for example +312 hrs -

http://91.121.84.31/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-312.png?18

Maybe it's just because it would not be the planned setup, it would be extreme cold zonality.

GFS 18z 850 temp ensembles for Dublin -

http://www.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20110110/18/t850Dublin.png

They show the op run to be on the cold side for the most of FI. I think it's a run for the bin really.

So all in all severe cold spell not very likely but the potential is there for one even if the PV sets up over Greenland... Look at this chart -

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910202.gif

And we all know what happend after...

And just a little ramp, look a bit similar?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1947/Rslp19470117.gif

Dan

Minister Boyce · 11-01-2011 2:16am

I wouldn't call the postman a bluffer but...... no in fact he's a bluffer. Stick to M.T. for the weather predictions. I;ve been up watching the neighbours Jack Russell sprint wildly in and out of his habitat (kennel) surely that must mean we are in for a monsoon....soon:rolleyes:

Strangegravy · 11-01-2011 2:16am

DarkJager wrote: »

I totally agree with them. Who wants to spend 3 hours + driving home in ****ing snow? I.ll take wind and rain any day over that ****. Seriously though, why would anyone who drives a car be wishing for snow? Do they enjoy nearly killing themselves or destroying their car on every bend in the road? I just can't understand why anyone is disapointed that its mild and rainy.

To be honest I feel safer on the roads when the weather is snowy, take your time and it's easy to stay safe.. and you don't have to worry as much about reckless drivers, as the harsh weather even makes them stop and think about taking more care on the roads.

Road death stats would agree for the last cold snap...

http://www.garda.ie/Controller.aspx?Page=138

Harps · 11-01-2011 3:04am

DarkJager wrote: »

I totally agree with them. Who wants to spend 3 hours + driving home in ****ing snow? I.ll take wind and rain any day over that ****. Seriously though, why would anyone who drives a car be wishing for snow? Do they enjoy nearly killing themselves or destroying their car on every bend in the road? I just can't understand why anyone is disapointed that its mild and rainy.

I dont want to drag this off topic so will say nothing after this but as posted above, snowy weather is statistically safer on the roads than heavy rain. I have no problem with them being happy that the ice is gone but not at the expense of what the coming week has in store. It just seemed strange to here her say 'thankfully' theres a return to heavy rain and strong winds

nacho libre wrote: »

not really- unless we got the perfect set up of atlantic systems from the south west trying to push the colder air away but failing to do so.
even with this scenario Donegal could stay bone dry. from your perspective you'd be hoping for the winds to swing around to a northerly direction.

Yeah thats what I would have thought, no way we can get any sort of decent precipitation from an easterly airflow. You might get a few streamers if the wind is strong enough but with Scotland in our way Donegal has little chance

ednwireland · 11-01-2011 12:18pm

Minister Boyce wrote: »

I wouldn't call the postman a bluffer but...... no in fact he's a bluffer. Stick to M.T. for the weather predictions. I;ve been up watching the neighbours Jack Russell sprint wildly in and out of his habitat (kennel) surely that must mean we are in for a monsoon....soon:rolleyes:

yep hes a bluffer, predicting cold winters for the 13 years i have lived here

http://www.donegalpost.com/2011/01/04/postie-predicts-brief-respite-from-snow/

Mobhi1 · 11-01-2011 2:20pm

Strangegravy wrote: »

To be honest I feel safer on the roads when the weather is snowy, take your time and it's easy to stay safe.. and you don't have to worry as much about reckless drivers, as the harsh weather even makes them stop and think about taking more care on the roads.

Road death stats would agree for the last cold snap...

http://www.garda.ie/Controller.aspx?Page=138

Personally I felt driving in the snow a pleasure! Admittedly I was driving across Dublin city, but driving on the snow was easy especially as there was very little traffic out because people were frightened off. Just had to take your time. And walking in it wasn't bad either as there was no thaw-freeze to turn it into ice. It stayed nice and crunchy. Although in busier areas such as the city centre with the amount of people trampling on it it wasn't as pleasant.

GSF · 11-01-2011 2:30pm

Harps wrote: »

Why are met eireann saying 'thankfully' were back to our usual atlantic weather on the forecast a while ago?

Probably because the country grinding to a halt for several months is generally only something that we expect bankers and politicans to deliver.

Not · 11-01-2011 3:04pm

Harps wrote: »

... snowy weather is statistically safer on the roads than heavy rain....

Possibly safer for the physical well being of the nut behind the wheel, not necessarily for the bodywork and consequently not necessarily for the emotional well being of the nut behind the wheel. I bet there was a huge increase in minor accidents causing damage to vehicles and dented pride to the unfortunate owners.

I didn't see any different behaviour from the road hogs during the cold spells. They were still racing around at speeds that didn't seem appropriate for the conditions and annoying the hell out of everyone else. Even when I 'd be pushing it doing 60 - 70 kmh on frozen compacted snow there'd always be some idiot in close attendance trying to pass :rolleyes: ..and 4X4's and vans overtaking through piles of snow in the centre of the road at 100kmh like 'what snow

' :rolleyes: friggin lemmings the lot of them behaving like that :mad:

The death rate may have dropped during that month, but so did the number of drivers using the roads, so maybe (i dont know) for the drivers who did venture out the risk might have actually been higher as calculated by deaths per actual number of road users over the time period ?

ardmacha · 11-01-2011 3:23pm

Less people used the roads in the snow. All roads would be safe if there was nobody using them. This pic was posted in the Roads forum, M50 with one car!

12-01-2011 10:47pm

I see the zonal train in real time is almost reaching moscow by now.it's ploughed the mild and rain,melting europes snow deep into eastern Europe.
This means that you'd need a strong Easterly for at least a week for to pull in cold air from that direction unless a northerly into Europe preceded it.
All a big ask.
Upshot? I'm expecting at least a forthnight of no sign of snow ahead,maybe more and probably at least 3 weeks, unless we get a roaring northeasterly...of which there is no sign.

pistolpetes11 · 12-01-2011 10:57pm

You can tell by the tumbleweed blowing through here there does not seem to be much on the horizon :mad:

Elmer Blooker · 12-01-2011 11:13pm

A week ago I predicted about six weeks of mild zzzzzzzzonal s***e on some other thread......... only five weeks to go.

Harps · 12-01-2011 11:19pm

It is quite depressing on here at the moment, a few weeks ago there were 30 odd posts a minute (admittedly I didnt like that either) but now theres only a handful every hour. The potential storm at the weekend will at least give something to talk about but its looking like a boring and eventless few weeks on here

pistolpetes11 · 12-01-2011 11:28pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

A week ago I predicted about six weeks of mild zzzzzzzzonal s***e on some other thread......... only five weeks to go.

I hope not , Im going to have a little look at the models now to see if there is anything to clamber onto !

All the cold seems to be coming from the west , cold one day , mild the next then cold again.

But look at all that cold building in Siberia, lets be having a good easterly and having some of that come our way !

mike65 · 12-01-2011 11:32pm

ardmacha wrote: »

Less people used the roads in the snow. All roads would be safe if there was nobody using them. This pic was posted in the Roads forum, M50 with one car!

I can see 4 and what time of night was that?

vibe666 · 13-01-2011 12:03am

johngalway wrote: »

I also would like a link, if there's somewhere he posts, or info from him, is posted regularly please.

hate to point out teh obvious, but...

Rodar08 wrote: »

The ***Donegal Postman*** (Donegal Snowman as I like to call him) has said we are to get another snow event from mid January

it says right there. he's a postman in donegal, where do you think he posts? :pac:

sorry, couldn't resist. it's all AH's fault, they've corrupted my innocence.

Harps · 13-01-2011 12:50am

A brief easterly showing up for the 23rd with -8 Uppers. Thats about as good as I can see right out to 384 hours :rolleyes:

Theres several moderately cold days coming up but the atlantic seems to be in charge all along

BLIZZARD7 · 13-01-2011 3:13am

I'm still expecting a cold spell to develop in the models over the next day or two, they have being playing with the idea only to drop it, then go back to it... I don't think it will get particularly cold before the very end of January/february though.

AO forecast looking much better -

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

And there's seems to be the a warming in the stratosphere over the pole, at the 30hpa level -

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

Not too much to get excited about just yet, but I think something will develop soon, and certainly, 100%, don't think we will have 6 weeks of zonal weather.

Dan

13-01-2011 10:04am

I think there might be a cooling eventually by the end of january brought about by a high but with atlantic air around it so boring and far from cold enough for snow,apart from frosty faux cold that gets shifted once theres any advance of wind.

nacho libre · 13-01-2011 3:34pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I'm still expecting a cold spell to develop in the models over the next day or two, they have being playing with the idea only to drop it, then go back to it... I don't think it will get particularly cold before the very end of January/february though.

AO forecast looking much better -

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

And there's seems to be the a warming in the stratosphere over the pole, at the 30hpa level -

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

Not too much to get excited about just yet, but I think something will develop soon, and certainly, 100%, don't think we will have 6 weeks of zonal weather.

Dan

But one thing absence from your post is a sign of the nao going negative. i know a negative nao is not a guarantee of a cold spell but it would give further confidence if there was a sign the atlantic was going quiet.

at the moment it unfortunately looks like this winter is now reverting to a traditional la nina winter. we need to keep in mind that winters that start exceptionally cold normally don't stay that way. i just hope black briar's point about everything starting a month earlier doesn't follow through to next winter. if that sounds like i'm writing off this winter i'm not! we'll see snow again at some point during Februrary and with any luck M.T.'s calculation of at least one major snowfall will come to pass. let's hope it's a blizzard- rather than blizzard like;)

Irish Steve · 13-01-2011 3:54pm

Not wrote: »

Possibly safer for the physical well being of the nut behind the wheel, not necessarily for the bodywork and consequently not necessarily for the emotional well being of the nut behind the wheel. I bet there was a huge increase in minor accidents causing damage to vehicles and dented pride to the unfortunate owners.

I didn't see any different behaviour from the road hogs during the cold spells. They were still racing around at speeds that didn't seem appropriate for the conditions and annoying the hell out of everyone else. Even when I 'd be pushing it doing 60 - 70 kmh on frozen compacted snow there'd always be some idiot in close attendance trying to pass :rolleyes: ..and 4X4's and vans overtaking through piles of snow in the centre of the road at 100kmh like 'what snow ' :rolleyes: friggin lemmings the lot of them behaving like that :mad:

The death rate may have dropped during that month, but so did the number of drivers using the roads, so maybe (i dont know) for the drivers who did venture out the risk might have actually been higher as calculated by deaths per actual number of road users over the time period ?

You ever driven a 4 x 4? I have, and I'd have to wonder at the madness of some of the lemmings driving normal vehicles so slowly they can't even get up a minor slope in second gear, drop to first and spend the next 10 minutes spinning like a maniac and going nowhere.

OK, there are people who don't know how to use a 4 x 4 correctly, but there are also (a lot of) people that do know how to drive in snow, and ice, and have done it safely for years, (not necessarily in Ireland) and can't understand why some people here can't cope with more than 15Kph in a straight line.

Some of the 4 x 4's and vans driving in the loose stuff are actually helping, by spreading it before it freezes into a solid lump, which helps the salt to keep the underlyng layers open.

Anyway, this is a weather forum, not a motoring forum, so end of rant

BLIZZARD7 · 13-01-2011 4:43pm

nacho libre wrote: »

But one thing absence from your post is a sign of the nao going negative. i know a negative nao is not a guarantee of a cold spell but it would give further confidence if there was a sign the atlantic was going quiet.

at the moment it unfortunately looks like this winter is now reverting to a traditional la nina winter. we need to keep in mind that winters that start exceptionally cold normally don't stay that way. i just hope black briar's point about everything starting a month earlier doesn't follow through to next winter. if that sounds like i'm writing off this winter i'm not! we'll see snow again at some point during Februrary and with any luck M.T.'s calculation of at least one major snowfall will come to pass. let's hope it's a blizzard- rather than blizzard like;)

Yep nacho, good point, the NAO is forecast to go positive, the Atlantic looks in control and until we see a big shift in the pattern it will stay that way, but I am confident that something will change in the next week or two.

Something wrong with the AO/NAO forecasts today.

Dan

oterra · 13-01-2011 5:11pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Yep nacho, good point, the NAO is forecast to go positive, the Atlantic looks in control and until we see a big shift in the pattern it will stay that way, but I am confident that something will change in the next week or two.

Something wrong with the AO/NAO forecasts today.

Just wondering how long under the current conditions would it take a greenland or a scandi high to establish itself?
What are the ideal conditions for one to develop?Can it happen over a space of days?

Next Snow Event - Mid Jan? Worse than last 2?

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