Next Snow Event - Mid Jan? Worse than last 2?

Rodar08

The Donegal Postman (Donegal Snowman as I like to call him) has said we are to get another snow event from mid January which will be worse than previous events this winter. Anyone agree? Early to be sure of course but any sign of it being a possibility at this point?

I for one LOVE the snow so I'm looking forward to it should it happen :D;):pac:

Well using his methods,the robins are still very tame and coming into me looking for food despite the green.
There is no evidence outside of extreme fi model wise.

My own view based on what I've seen is that nature is a great leveler,meaning we've had our extreme cold now and she'll want to balance things out from here on in with milder weather.

BEASTERLY

Deleted User wrote: »

My own view based on what I've seen is that nature is a great leveler,meaning we've had our extreme cold now and she'll want to balance things out from here on in with milder weather.

Winter of '47?

mountainy man

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Winter of '47?

Those were the best days of my life, ooh yeah....:D

Sponge Bob

What is the sign?? Muskrats hibernating in his postbag or something ??

snaps

BBQ weather here today, glourious spring like day. The problem with snow events towards the end of Jan onwards is the sun is so much stronger. Cant see it happening but you never know.

BEASTERLY

snaps wrote: »

BBQ weather here today, glourious spring like day. The problem with snow events towards the end of Jan onwards is the sun is so much stronger. Cant see it happening but you never know.

Its just a little bit stronger than the end of November plus sea temps will be lower by the end of January than they are now.

Rodar08

It's sure not the regular way to forecast our weather Sponge Bob but he has been proved right on a number of occasions using his alternative methods. Who are we to say he's wrong really. Apparently he's been studying these methods for a long time. There might be something in it, there might be nothing in it. Man had to start somewhere when trying to forecast the weather and it certainly wasn't clicking buttons and refreshing charts/models on a screen!! It will be very interesting to see what pans out ....

Oops ... slight edit ... I know forecasting the weather is majorly complex and scientific so didn't mean to sound flippant there when I said about clicking buttons and refreshing

Pangea

Rodar08 wrote: »

The Donegal Postman (Donegal Snowman as I like to call him) has said we are to get another snow event from mid January which will be worse than previous events this winter. Anyone agree? Early to be sure of course but any sign of it being a possibility at this point?

I for one LOVE the snow so I'm looking forward to it should it happen :D;):pac:

Where did you hear him say that, have you got a link or anything..

johngalway

Pangea wrote: »

Where did you hear him say that, have you got a link or anything..

I also would like a link, if there's somewhere he posts, or info from him, is posted regularly please.

Rodar08

Pangea I heard it on Highland in the week. He was on talking to Shaun Doherty about it. There's a comment on the Shaun Doherty Facebook page about it..

esposito

More like the end of Jan I would say. This milder air will take a while to shift.

Elmer Blooker

:rolleyes: mid Jan is only six days away and there is absolutely no cold weather in sight. I can see that that HP in the general W.Med/Iberia/Azores area not moving much for the next month or more unfortunately.
This winter resembles last summer- all the good weather came in May and June and all we got was Atlantic muck in July and August. This winter all the good weather came in Nov and Dec and you know the rest for the rest of Jan and Feb.

thetonynator

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

:rolleyes: mid Jan is only six days away and there is absolutely no cold weather in sight. I can see that that HP in the general W.Med/Iberia/Azores area not moving much for the next month or more unfortunately.
This winter resembles last summer- all the good weather came in May and June and all we got was Atlantic muck in July and August. This winter all the good weather came in Nov and Dec and you know the rest for the rest of Jan and Feb.

Mid january is really the period from the end of the first week to the thbeginning of the last week, i.e., the 8th to 24th.

Big Daddy Cool

:rolleyes: oh no not another potentially disruptive snow event on the horizon, ive only just got over fridays event :rolleyes:

PCPhoto

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Winter of '47?

I believe the music quote is " back in the summer of sixty nine" ....oh wait this isn't after hours.

(runs back to my shadowey corner)

yup ... cold weather coming .... according to sources ...could last up to a month....due to arrive around mid/late Jan.

thetonynator

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

:rolleyes: oh no not another potentially disruptive snow event on the horizon, ive only just got over fridays event :rolleyes:

no need to be sarcastic, apart from the fact that the forecaster in question has (needlessly) apologised for his mistake, much of the country was affected by fridays event.

Big Daddy Cool

thetonynator wrote: »

no need to be sarcastic, apart from the fact that the forecaster in question has (needlessly) apologised for his mistake, much of the country was affected by fridays event.

im not having a pop at anybody, im on about everybody who forecast it as ''potentially disruptive'', and i know people were effected by it, i seen some of the posts on friday night, i was effected by it, i got quite a bit of snow in fact and its still covering the lawns and garden, but by no means was disruptive.

my point is People should'nt post things about a weather event so far in advance from the actual event until they are certain that this will be the case because believe it or not, i know people who read these posts and actually plan around it.

Sonovagun

If you go out into your garden and dig a hole, the further down you find worms the colder it's gonna get. Best weather indicator is a worm if you ask me.

Pangea

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

:rolleyes: mid Jan is only six days away and there is absolutely no cold weather in sight..

People have been talking about cold weather returning around mid january period for the past week or two, I suggest you look at the model thread.

Rodar08 wrote: »

The Donegal Postman (Donegal Snowman as I like to call him) has said we are to get another snow event FROM mid January

jambofc

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

my point is People should'nt post things about a weather event so far in advance from the actual event until they are certain that this will be the case because believe it or not, i know people who read these posts and actually plan around it.

that's what this forum is for,forecasting weather and there is nothing certain about weather at any time scale.

If the Donegal Postman say's it shall be so, then I would tend to believe it shall be so.
He didnt get to be a legend for nothing

Pangea

From the Shaun Doherty facebook page.

"Weather Predictor and Postman Michael Gallagher reckons theres more Snow to come, .......will be here roughly the middle of
January."

Thats that then :pac:

Not

Pangea wrote: »

People have been talking about cold weather returning around mid january period for the past week or two, I suggest you look at the model thread.

Latest on that thread is that they're not all that optimistic atm of that panning out. I think there is definite shift in the seasons and that this winter has all ready played its best hand. Mr postman was apparently taken by surprise about how quickly the last spell we had was wiped away by the Atlantic, so I'm not sure I'd rely on him forecasting another one arriving this month. Not that I would rely on anyone tbh given the unpredictable nature of weather. Though he might be right for Donegal about snow given Donegal seems to get snow more often than anywhere else.

John.Icy

Up to the 12z yesterday, I would be agreeing with this postman, with really good signs of another potentially severe spell of cold and snow on the horizon. However, after the last few runs, there are increased signs of the Atlantic holding on. An improved 12z gives some hope, but the Ensembles are moving upwards now, heading towards the milder operational run, with far fewer very cold runs, ie; uppers falling to or below -10.

Maybe, well hopefully, its just the usual weekend changes during cold spells, and well see something different come tomorrow.

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

From the Shaun Doherty facebook page.

"Weather Predictor and Postman Michael Gallagher reckons theres more Snow to come, .......will be here roughly the middle of
January."

Thats that then :pac:

yes i'd be confident of more snow in january too:pac:

i wonder though did he really say he expects the next cold spell to be colder than December?? the media might well have exaggerated what he said.

assuming that is in fact what he said, it would take something truly exceptional to be colder than December. there is no support for it currently from the models and M.T has stated a few times that he doesn't really think we'll get it as cold as it was in December again.

Big Daddy Cool

jambofc wrote: »

that's what this forum is for,forecasting weather and there is nothing certain about weather at any time scale.

i know what this forum is about and how uncertain weather forecasting can be, im sure people will disagree with me and love the whole ''lets hype this forecast up'' i just think putting any word that would be considered an attention grabber in a thread so far ahead of the actual event and then it doesnt happen, is in my opinion unnecessary.

jambofc

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

i know what this forum is about and how uncertain weather forecasting can be, im sure people will disagree with me and love the whole ''lets hype this forecast up'' i just think putting any word that would be considered an attention grabber in a thread so far ahead of the actual event and then it doesnt happen, is in my opinion unnecessary.

not really understanding you here,it's a weather forum to talk about live events and future events,if people didn't place future weather model threads there would be no forum,most thread's by experienced poster's are usually relaying what the charts are saying at that time and put there own view on it.

at the height of the extreme weather i agree there was a load of rubbish being posted but not by the more recognised poster's here.

jimmy.d

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

i know what this forum is about and how uncertain weather forecasting can be, im sure people will disagree with me and love the whole ''lets hype this forecast up'' i just think putting any word that would be considered an attention grabber in a thread so far ahead of the actual event and then it doesnt happen, is in my opinion unnecessary.

off topic start up another thread if ya want to talk bull****

fizzycyst

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

i know what this forum is about and how uncertain weather forecasting can be, im sure people will disagree with me and love the whole ''lets hype this forecast up'' i just think putting any word that would be considered an attention grabber in a thread so far ahead of the actual event and then it doesnt happen, is in my opinion unnecessary.

actually I think it is very necessary. If the experienced posters here start to not say what they actually think just in case it may seem 'hyped up', then what's the point. People coming on to the forum to read the posts should realise that the forecasters do not always get it 100% correct. The fact there are numerous different opinions all the time should make it obvious that nothing is ever certain.
Furthermore, if everyone started keeping there opinions to themselves about what they believe will happen, it would get, well, quite boring to be honest. Those of us who are looking at weather charts for the first time like to see how different forecasts can emerge from different peoples perspective looking at these charts. So yes, I think it's necessary

Su Campu

I can't see any sign of cold weather returning for at least the next two weeks as we head into a positive NAO phase. This should erode the positive SST anomalies near Greenland and the Canadian Maritimes, which could serve to prolong the positive NAO. We could potentially see the month out without another northwesterly block, though I can't see this happening. I think the final week in January will be a cold one - how cold is anyone's guess, but with MT's research indices indicating a cold end, it may be a battle between these and an NAO fighting to keep its head above water.

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

yes i'd be confident of more snow in january too:pac:

i wonder though did he really say he expects the next cold spell to be colder than December?? the media might well have exaggerated what he said.
.

Nacho I dont know where Rodar08 got that part, but I wouldnt quote the postman as saying that unless I heard it from him or had a direct link .

Your spot on, media and newspapers can take a perfectly good level headed comment and then overhype it to grab attention.
From what I gather he said there would be more snow later this month ,lets leave it at that until we see a proper quote.

Rodar08

He didn't say it would be colder, I think he was just meaning the snow may be worse than the last 2 events. I can't quote word for word what he said and we can't get a copy of the interview which was on Highland Radio on the 4th of January as Highland Radio don't put links up for their shows. However, he was interviewed live on air by Shaun Doherty and he did say the next cold spell would be from mid January and worse than the last 2. That is all

Big Daddy Cool ... what are you even on about? ... I'm just sharing what the Donegal Postman said. jeeez!!! :rolleyes: :cool:

Not

Rodar08 wrote: »

He didn't say it would be colder, I think he was just meaning the snow may be worse than the last 2 events. I can't quote word for word what he said and we can't get a copy of the interview which was on Highland Radio on the 4th of January as Highland Radio don't put links up for their shows. However, he was interviewed live on air by Shaun Doherty and he did say the next cold spell would be from mid January and worse than the last 2. That is all

Big Daddy Cool ... what are you even on about? ... I'm just sharing what the Donegal Postman said. jeeez!!! :rolleyes: :cool:

4th January ? Sure that's nearly a week out of date ! In weather forecasting outlooks change completely within hours, never mind the best part of week.

Big Daddy Cool

Rodar08 wrote: »

Big Daddy Cool ... what are you even on about? ... I'm just sharing what the Donegal Postman said. jeeez!!! :rolleyes: :cool:

i never mentioned anything about your post rod

francie81

Rodar08 wrote: »

The Donegal Postman (Donegal Snowman as I like to call him) has said we are to get another snow event from mid January which will be worse than previous events this winter. Anyone agree? Early to be sure of course but any sign of it being a possibility at this point?

I for one LOVE the snow so I'm looking forward to it should it happen :D;):pac:

I believe next week would be technically mid-jan which is down for routinely gulf stream weather fronts so unless theirs a dramatic change in wind direction your soo called 'donegal snowman' notion will be somewhat off.

H2UMrsRobinson

There seems to be a lot of apres-snow anxiety in the air...! Perhaps if we all chill out the weather may follow suit ...;-)

Pangea

francie81 wrote: »

I believe next week would be technically mid-jan which is down for routinely gulf stream weather fronts so unless theirs a dramatic change in wind direction your soo called 'donegal snowman' notion will be somewhat off.

Oh give over, theres no exact date, he said roughly mid January.

francie81

Pangea wrote: »

Oh give over, theres no exact date, he said roughly mid January.

Good for him am just going by long range forecasts rather than being smart.

BEASTERLY

Does the 20th count as mid month?

Pangea

francie81 wrote: »

Good for him am just going by long range forecasts rather than being smart.

I was refering to you being very techincal ,if the snow comes on the 22nd doesnt mean that the postman was wrong because its not techincally 'mid January'. He saying the signs are that there will be more snow to come before January is out. Even the model experts forecasts of cold can be delayed by a week give or take and have been in the past.

nacho libre

Currently from day 7 it looks like north westerly will be setting in- granted they will likely be brief and will not deliver severe cold, but it will become colder should the current charts verify.

M.T. Cranium

The conventional models have been wavering on strength of blocking but there has been a general theme past three days to show a seven-day zonal interval (half time ?) followed by a return to blocking, but with some scenarios indicating mainly northerly flow and some bringing the Siberian high west into Scandinavia.

The key time period is 19-21 Jan ... strong events on 11-12, 15 and 17 Jan all fall into the zonal interval and then a strong event 19-20 with full moon runs into the transitional upper air signal. Think it may reverse fairly quickly and so the Donegal postman may end up looking good (our fates are pretty much intertwined at this point).

I would remind everyone that solar angle means almost nothing to snowfall climatology in Ireland or the U.K., some of the worst snowstorms have been in February (1933, 1947, 1963, 2009 for example). In fact the peak of the snowfall season is probably the first half of February on a statistical basis. If you've only had half your seasonal snowfall to date, then, just sayin' ... :eek:

I'll offer 80% probability that there will be another major snowfall event in Ireland this winter, defined as 10 cms of snow or more at four or more of the eighteen stations in met.ie first-order reporting stations, or 20 cms or more at any two. Of course, that could be Dublin, Casement, Mullingar and Oak Park, leaving 80% of the country with no snow.

When's the most likely time for a snowstorm and return to severe cold? I would say around 24 Jan to 10 Feb, that period shows up in my research as having a cold set of analogues and high blocking index. But the window of opportunity opens around the 20th of January. Doesn't make any difference how mild it gets this week, 16 January 1947 was a very mild day too. :cool:

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The conventional models have been wavering on strength of blocking but there has been a general theme past three days to show a seven-day zonal interval (half time ?) followed by a return to blocking, but with some scenarios indicating mainly northerly flow and some bringing the Siberian high west into Scandinavia.

The key time period is 19-21 Jan ... strong events on 11-12, 15 and 17 Jan all fall into the zonal interval and then a strong event 19-20 with full moon runs into the transitional upper air signal. Think it may reverse fairly quickly and so the Donegal postman may end up looking good (our fates are pretty much intertwined at this point).

I would remind everyone that solar angle means almost nothing to snowfall climatology in Ireland or the U.K., some of the worst snowstorms have been in February (1933, 1947, 1963, 2009 for example). In fact the peak of the snowfall season is probably the first half of February on a statistical basis. If you've only had half your seasonal snowfall to date, then, just sayin' ... :eek:

I'll offer 80% probability that there will be another major snowfall event in Ireland this winter, defined as 10 cms of snow or more at four or more of the eighteen stations in met.ie first-order reporting stations, or 20 cms or more at any two. Of course, that could be Dublin, Casement, Mullingar and Oak Park, leaving 80% of the country with no snow.

When's the most likely time for a snowstorm and return to severe cold? I would say around 27 Jan to 10 Feb, that period shows up in my research as having a cold set of analogues and high blocking index. But the window of opportunity opens around the 20th of January. Doesn't make any difference how mild it gets this week, 16 January 1947 was a very mild day too. :cool:

M.T. you have obviously not seen the posts over on netweather officially declaring Winter to be over now that we will have a week of Atlantic domination:pac:

Su Campu

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'll offer 80% probability that there will be another major snowfall event in Ireland this winter, defined as 10 cms of snow or more at four or more of the eighteen stations in met.ie first-order reporting stations, or 20 cms or more at any two. Of course, that could be Dublin, Casement, Mullingar and Oak Park, leaving 80% of the country with no snow.

Only 7 stations are manned and give snow depths - Belmullet, Valentia, Casement, and Dublin, Cork, Shannon and Knock airports. The other 11 stations are automatic and don't report snow depths.

Of course we do have Danno!!

Danno

LOL Su! Which reminds me to update a thread on here...

WolfeIRE

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

Joe B on the coming weeks

steveLFC24

Big Daddy Cool wrote: »

im not having a pop at anybody, im on about everybody who forecast it as ''potentially disruptive'', and i know people were effected by it, i seen some of the posts on friday night, i was effected by it, i got quite a bit of snow in fact and its still covering the lawns and garden, but by no means was disruptive.

my point is People should'nt post things about a weather event so far in advance from the actual event until they are certain that this will be the case because believe it or not, i know people who read these posts and actually plan around it.

Key word being 'potentially'. In other words it was a possibilty that it could be disruptive. Nobody ever said it was a dead cert. I for one who rather a forecast over-exaggerated the potential for snow. At least that way I can make any necessary precautions/arrangements (I travel by plane a lot and need to know these things).

Rodar08

Oh!!! I feel so humbled/honoured/excited that M.T. has written on my thread. Was delighted to scroll down and see that post :D:D Thanks M.T. .... It's almost like a celebrity came to my house for tea!!! :P lol

francie81

Pangea wrote: »

I was refering to you being very techincal ,if the snow comes on the 22nd doesnt mean that the postman was wrong because its not techincally 'mid January'. He saying the signs are that there will be more snow to come before January is out. Even the model experts forecasts of cold can be delayed by a week give or take and have been in the past.

Am not really bothered nor am I here to argue the point of weather predictions but it just seemed to me that the original message came from someone who wanted it to snow no big deal.

dsmythy

The postie could just look at some of the models and make that prediction. He kind of binds himself somewhat saying it will be worse than the last two events because it would take an extraordinary few days to manage that. Does he count himself as correct if 1cm falls in Donegal before the end of the month?