UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

Paully D

I think Dan Henderson is too big at 3/1 at the weekend. More of a punt because I see value in it as opposed to any real confidence in him winning, but I think he's too big at that price and will have a nibble.

CurryFlavoured

Paully D wrote: »

I think Dan Henderson is too big at 3/1 at the weekend. More of a punt because I see value in it as opposed to any real confidence in him winning, but I think he's too big at that price and will have a nibble.

Agreed. Vitor looks way out if shape now and he blew his load in a 30secs flurry v Weidman. I'd have Vitor favourite but its closer to 50/50.

mailburner

went with two singles

trujillo 11/10

souza 6/4
skelly is tough if but if souza manages to keep it standing he has a great
chance of taking this

mailburner

my idea of a banker treble, odds of 1.86 (boyles)

almeida
teix
anderson


not sure which of these could lose, maybe maldo could pull a win out of his arse from nowhere if anderson gets sloppy but he should be far too good
big fan of almeida...nuff said
I'd be surprised if teix couldn't beat cummins, struggling to see how cummins can win this even on pts.

ASOT

mailburner wrote: »

my idea of a banker treble, odds of 1.86 (boyles)

almeida
teix
anderson


not sure which of these could lose, maybe maldo could pull a win out of his arse from nowhere if anderson gets sloppy but he should be far too good
big fan of almeida...nuff said
I'd be surprised if teix couldn't beat cummins, struggling to see how cummins can win this even on pts.

Maldo on home turf is dodge, I think he will win Anderson isn't great.

mailburner

haven't backed hendo in years and not sure he can survive round 1 but great chance imo after that


dan round 2 16/1 (bet365)

mailburner

ASOT wrote: »

Maldo on home turf is dodge, I think he will win Anderson isn't great.

thought anderson was excellent last time out and do think its possible he could get caught but apart from that he should win this everywhere
I'd be worried if it turned into a brawl myself
his price is a lot shorter than I thought it would be though

ASOT

mailburner wrote: »

thought anderson was excellent last time out and do think its possible he could get caught but apart from that he should win this everywhere
I'd be worried if it turned into a brawl myself
his price is a lot shorter than I thought it would be though

I just wouldn't put to much trust in Anderson myself, like you said the worst thing that could happen for you would be them to start brawling! I'd have Olivera in over him instead.

CurryFlavoured

mailburner wrote: »

my idea of a banker treble, odds of 1.86 (boyles)

almeida
teix
anderson


not sure which of these could lose, maybe maldo could pull a win out of his arse from nowhere if anderson gets sloppy but he should be far too good
big fan of almeida...nuff said
I'd be surprised if teix couldn't beat cummins, struggling to see how cummins can win this even on pts.

Almeida gets hit a lot, he should win but I'm not backing at such short odds.

I've backed Guida Dec, Umalatov and Glover.

Axwell

ASOT wrote: »

Maldo on home turf is dodge, I think he will win Anderson isn't great.

Anderson is improving all the time, dont see Maldonado offering anything he cant handle and the only thing home turf will do is keep him in it a bit longer trying to do it for the crowd. Goes to a decision in favour of Anderson if he doesnt win it before then.

JoeyJJ

Maldo and Dan for a mad double

Axwell

MOV acca as usual
Vitor Belfort by KO @ 4/7
Rashid Magomedov on Points @ 11/10
Johnny Case on Points @ 7/5
Chas Skelly on Points @ 21/10
Viscardi Andrade on Points @ 23/10
Pedro Munhoz on Points @ 2/1
Matheus Nicolau on Points @ 13/10
Alex Oliveira on Points @ 6/4
Clay Guida on Points @ 11/10
Gleison Tibau on Points @ 7/4
Corey Anderson on Points @ 8/13
Thomas Almeida by KO @ 5/6
Glover Teixeira by KO @ 5/4

Main Bet Acca
Clay Guida on Points @ 11/10
Johnny Case by KO @ 2/1
Gleison Tibau on Points @ 7/4
Corey Anderson on Points @ 8/13
Gilbert Burns on Points @ 4/1
Thomas Almeida by KO @ 5/6
Glover Teixeira by KO @ 5/4

martyos121

Axwell wrote: »

MOV acca as usual


Main Bet Acca

Jesus, what are the returns like for those? (Round to the nearest gold bar :pac:)

Axwell

martyos121 wrote: »

Jesus, what are the returns like for those? (Round to the nearest gold bar :pac:)

Lol ridiculous on the first one but then I only put a few cent on it. The second one isnt as crazy but again I only bet a few euro on it. Usually do them more for the interest when watching the event. Usually I will just put singles on each fight when im watching and what i usually do is stick a fiver on the first fight and then if it wins ill bet a tenner on the next and keep going at that but always leave a fiver in reserve for if i lose then start again on whatever fight it is. Its more for fun than anything but at the end of the one in Dublin I was up about 200 quid. Would only put decent money on a treble if I was really sure on it but its rare to get decent odds and something you can be realtively certain on.

thewheel2.0

Axwell wrote: »

Main Bet Acca
Clay Guida on Points @ 11/10
Johnny Case by KO @ 2/1
Gleison Tibau on Points @ 7/4
Corey Anderson on Points @ 8/13
Gilbert Burns on Points @ 4/1
Thomas Almeida by KO @ 5/6
Glover Teixeira by KO @ 5/4

Edit:

I left out one and went for all to win:
Clay Guida 1.66
Johnny Case 1.33
Gleison Tibau 1.72
Gilbert Burns 2.7
Thomas Almeida 1.22
Glover Teixeira 1.2

Total Odds: 15.2

thewheel2.0

thewheel2.0 wrote: »

Edit:

I left out one and went for all to win:
Clay Guida 1.66
Johnny Case 1.33
Gleison Tibau 1.72
Gilbert Burns 2.7
Thomas Almeida 1.22
Glover Teixeira 1.2

Total Odds: 15.2

Ah sh!te...

Yan Cabral is 5/1 to win by sub. Fancy that for 12-1 fighter with 11 subs

martyos121

Case KO R2, 7-1

EuskalHerria

Either by sub, more likely Cabral, 5-1

Wrongway1985

Threw a tenner on Hendo worth a shot at that price don't have high expectations but at that price like get out of first round be grand :rolleyes:

Axwell

ASOT wrote: »

Maldo on home turf is dodge, I think he will win Anderson isn't great.

Corey Anderson..all day!

ASOT

Axwell wrote: »

Corey Anderson..all day!

Still would have rathered Olivera @ 4/6 instead :pac:

mailburner

didnt have to sweat too hard on that one :pac:

less said bout the others the better

mailburner

wonder is daniel kelly value at 9/4 to beat montgomery?

I can't see why montgomery is only 2/5 myself, wouldnt have thought there wouldnt be much between the two and montgomery was outclassed last time out as was monty
fighting with the home crowd behind him I think kelly will keep coming at monty until he breaks him
monty may be the better fighter but pressure might tell late on (hopefully)

weemcd

Bit early but I'd fancy Mark Hunt to KO Bigfoot.

Hunt has only really been beaten by the top, top fighters lately.

He's been training with Swick and AKA Thailand and looks in great shape (comparatively)

Bigfoot hasn't looked great and can no longer use TRT. I'd expect Hunt to be far too much for him this time out.

akelly02

Think ive spotted a mistake on PP re aldo and Conor fight. Conor is 8/13 to win outright but a double chance bet of KO or PTS is a 8/15 shot?? Have i gone mad??

martyos121

akelly02 wrote: »

Think ive spotted a mistake on PP re aldo and Conor fight. Conor is 8/13 to win outright but a double chance bet of KO or PTS is a 8/15 shot?? Have i gone mad??

He hasn't got a submission game so that price is about right I'd say.

Found a great value bet on the fight though for Aldo backers. Aldo in round 4, 5 or by decision is 11/2 with PP. If he has any chance of winning the fight, it's in the championship rounds or by decision, because Conor hasn't gone more than 15 minutes in his career (and he's only done that once laying on top of Holloway with a torn knee), so Aldo's experience in 5 round fights will definitely benefit him here, and you'd expect him to wear down the lead leg of Conor as long as he can keep the body kicks at bay. Of course he's more likely to win on points if he's to win at all, so for anyone backing Aldo and looking for a good value bet, you can't do any better IMO.

Mellor

martyos121 wrote: »

He hasn't got a submission game so that price is about right I'd say.

Even if he had absolutely no submission game, how could KO or points being shorter than all win option be the right price.

Conor McGregor 1.61
Conor McGregor by KO or Submission 1.66
Conor McGregor by KO or on Points 1.53

KO or submission looks awful too. Only +.05 to remove the points win.
The other side of the coin is that the stingy points here means there is probably value elsewhere.
Jose Aldo by KO or Submission 4.33, and Jose Aldo by KO or on Points 3.60 look good to me.

Found a great value bet on the fight though for Aldo backers. Aldo in round 4, 5 or by decision is 11/2 with PP. If he has any chance of winning the fight, it's in the championship rounds or by decision, because Conor hasn't gone more than 15 minutes in his career (and he's only done that once laying on top of Holloway with a torn knee), so Aldo's experience in 5 round fights will definitely benefit him here, and you'd expect him to wear down the lead leg of Conor as long as he can keep the body kicks at bay. Of course he's more likely to win on points if he's to win at all, so for anyone backing Aldo and looking for a good value bet, you can't do any better IMO.

It looks good in the regard its bigger than Aldo on points alone (6.58 vrs 6.0). But I wouldn't look to Aldo's championship rounds as a strength.

Historically his rounds 1,2 and 3 are much stronger. He's only ever lost a single round from the first 3 (out of his decisions). Round 1 verses Florian. In every other fight, be lost a least one round out of the 4th and 5th.

Lamas: Lost the 5th
Hominick: Lost the 5th (10-8)
Edgar: Lost the 4th, and lost the 5 on one judges card
Mendes:Lost the 4th, and lost the 5 on one judges card

If you too add up all the champion rd scores from those 5 (inc Florian) he's scored 284 to 284.

In his UFC decisions. His championship round win rate is 53%
His 1st-3rd round win rate is 93%.

Depp

Are PP giving a market for the strawweight fight? cant find odds on the site, was thinking of throwing down a double on Holm/Letourneau just in case

Paully D

Depp wrote: »

Are PP giving a market for the strawweight fight? cant find odds on the site, was thinking of throwing down a double on Holm/Letourneau just in case

72/1 for the double with Paddy Power (7's for Holm, 8's for Letourneau). You can get 143/1 with Bet Bright, 121/1 with Bet 365 and 110/1 with Ladbrokes. Power's one of the lowest offerings for that double.