UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

went with singles on these

under 1.5 rounds in hendo boetsch 5/4

poirier ko 5/2 banking on poirier to put on a show here (or get flattened)

soto sub 5/1(Betv) like this one and next best 10/3
most of his wins have been by sub so think this is value
double of both also at 20/1


accum at 87/1
soto sub
poirier ko
boetsch
under 1.5 rounds in lewis jordan at 1/2 looks a safe one...lol
under 1.5 in mitrione rothwel

may have given soto too much credit for going five with tj...

had it in my head this time last week to back boetsch ko but 11/10 was miserly, fancied an early finish whatever happened which thankfully was a better price

the under 1.5 rnds was a great bet in those two but I came close to sticking them in a treble with boetsch
the 20/23 on the under 1.5 in the rothwell one looked decent as it would with most heavies in fairness

It is nice not to lose once in a while

qwabercd

El Guapo! wrote: »

What??

I'm not a seasoned gambler but I have a decent enough grasp on betting to know that your example is FAR from an equivalent bet. I had a 53/1 treble on. It wasn't a 53/1 longshot single.
I felt it had a good chance of coming in and it very nearly did. Yes it had pretty long odds but it wasn't miles off the realms of possibility like your example.

A 53/1 treble is exactly as long a shot as a 53/1 single, hence the odds.

martyos121

qwabercd wrote: »

A 53/1 treble is exactly as long a shot as a 53/1 single, hence the odds.

It isn't really though. You could get odds of 500/1 on Bournemouth winning the EPL for example, or a 500/1 accumulator of around 10 reasonably priced teams winning their matches.

Only one of those has any chance of winning, and it isn't the first one.

El Guapo!

qwabercd wrote: »

A 53/1 treble is exactly as long a shot as a 53/1 single, hence the odds.

The way the post was worded though didn't mention those football bets as singles. It looked as though he was posting them as a treble which would've had massive odds.

The point I was making about my bet was, individually, they were all much shorter odds. I thought they had a good chance of coming in and it wasn't as long a shot as the bookies made out.

qwabercd

martyos121 wrote: »

It isn't really though. You could get odds of 500/1 on Bournemouth winning the EPL for example, or a 500/1 accumulator of around 10 reasonably priced teams winning their matches.

Only one of those has any chance of winning, and it isn't the first one.

Extreme example to prove a point. Accumulators are the odds they are for a reason.

martyos121

qwabercd wrote: »

Extreme example to prove a point. Accumulators are the odds they are for a reason.

Doesn't matter how extreme it is.

Ten short-odd bets are almost always far more likely to win than a long single. If you had a fiver to back a 100/1 bet, would you back a 100/1 single (eg. Sunderland to finish top four) or ten safe-ish bets in an acca? The smart money wouldn't go near the single.

callaway92

El Guapo! wrote: »

What??

I'm not a seasoned gambler but I have a decent enough grasp on betting to know that your example is FAR from an equivalent bet. I had a 53/1 treble on. It wasn't a 53/1 longshot single.
I felt it had a good chance of coming in and it very nearly did. Yes it had pretty long odds but it wasn't miles off the realms of possibility like your example.

as below.

qwabercd wrote: »

A 53/1 treble is exactly as long a shot as a 53/1 single, hence the odds.

callaway92

martyos121 wrote: »

Doesn't matter how extreme it is.

Ten short-odd bets are almost always far more likely to win than a long single. If you had a fiver to back a 100/1 bet, would you back a 100/1 single (eg. Sunderland to finish top four) or ten safe-ish bets in an acca? The smart money wouldn't go near the single.

It's still the same chance of winning according to the bookmaker.

54/1 = 1.75% chance of happening.

Your example is poor actually.

If I was to take a guess which has a better chance of winning I'd say a single long-shot, not multiple short-odd favourites.

martyos121

callaway92 wrote: »

It's still the same chance of winning according to the bookmaker.

54/1 = 1.75% chance of happening.

Your example is poor actually.

If I was to take a guess which has a better chance of winning I'd say a single long-shot, not multiple short-odd favourites.

My opinion isn't a blind one though, I've won a hell of a lot more from accumulators than long singles. Horses are another story, but in terms of football, MMA, boxing and rugby, accumulators have been more successful to me.

PS I don't see how that's a poor example, it represents a long-odds single bet, care to provide a "better" one? :rolleyes:

qwabercd

martyos121 wrote: »

It isn't really though. You could get odds of 500/1 on Bournemouth winning the EPL for example, or a 500/1 accumulator of around 10 reasonably priced teams winning their matches.

Only one of those has any chance of winning, and it isn't the first one.

Well, you can get bournemouth to win the EPL at 7,500/1. So yes, I'd agree a 500/1 accum is more likely to win.

Mellor

qwabercd wrote: »

A 53/1 treble is exactly as long a shot as a 53/1 single, hence the odds.

If the odds are correct thats true. But there's much more likely to be a massive over-round on the single, especially if you are choosing over priced shorter bets.
The if the KOs were overpriced, then the treble, wasn't actually a 53/1 shot.

Of course, mugs choose random bets to accum and compounding the bookies overround too.

martyos121 wrote: »

Ten short-odd bets are almost always far more likely to win than a long single.

No they aren't really. The slim chances of a short odds bet not happening adds up.
Say you pick five bets at 1/2 and five at 3/4. All odds on favs
Even if the bookie was giving you perfectly fair prices (he never is), there's a 99.2% chance that one or more will left you down. 1 in 128.

When you factor in the bookie overround (profit margin), it's probable close to 99.5, 1 in 200.


To look at it another way, is it easier to flip a coin and get heads 3 times out of 3. Or to roll a dice once and get a 6.

If you had a fiver to back a 100/1 bet, would you back a 100/1 single (eg. Sunderland to finish top four) or ten safe-ish bets in an acca? The smart money wouldn't go near the single.

The smart money money would go near either tbh. They are both awful bets

El Guapo!

Not a lot takes my fancy for UFC188 but I'll definitely go with Velasquez v Werdum under 2.5 @ 11/10

No MOV markets up on PP yet but I'll probably take Cain by KO too if there's any decent value.

Edit: Cain KO is 5/6 on Betfair


If anyone fancies a punt on Werdum by sub, Boyles are offering 10/1.

mailburner

El Guapo! wrote: »

Not a lot takes my fancy for UFC188 but I'll definitely go with Velasquez v Werdum under 2.5 @ 11/10

.

that is interesting
was just coming on here to ask folks opinions on over 2.5 in same at 11/10

werdum a hard man to put away, think cain will do very well to ko him and if so I think werdum can go at least 3 before cain finally wears him out

part of me thinks werdum has a live chance at 4/1 but then I tell myself to cop the hell on as its very unlikely


the under 2.5 rounds in the gastelum marq fight is 9/10 (888) or under 1.5 even at 28/17
I don't see that one going the distance myself

El Guapo!

mailburner wrote: »

that is interesting
was just coming on here to ask folks opinions on over 2.5 in same at 11/10

werdum a hard man to put away, think cain will do very well to ko him and if so I think werdum can go at least 3 before cain finally wears him out

part of me thinks werdum has a live chance at 4/1 but then I tell myself to cop the hell on as its very unlikely


the under 2.5 rounds in the gastelum marq fight is 9/10 (888) or under 1.5 even at 28/17
I don't see that one going the distance myself

I agree Werdum is difficult to put away but I just think Cain is a different animal. If I'm basing it on Cains previous form,
9 out of his 13 wins have come in under 2.5.
The ones that were over have been his two wins over JDS, one decision against Kongo, and one finished at 2:34 of the second round so just a shade over.

It's far from a sure thing but I'll be going with under.

I give Werdum a bit of a chance but I doubt he'll decision Cain, or knock him out. I think if he wins it'll be by catching a sub off his back. That's why I think the 10/1 might be worth a couple of quid.

El Guapo!

I'm torn between Velasquez/Werdum @ 3/1 or Melendez/Alvarez @ 5/2 for Fight of the Night.

Mellor

El Guapo! wrote: »

I'm torn between Velasquez/Werdum @ 3/1 or Melendez/Alvarez @ 5/2 for Fight of the Night.

Cain performance of the night,
Melendez/Alvarez fight of the night

Copper_pipe

Aldo 20/21 on Ladbrokes now...

Hoki

Anyone backing Pendred out of curiosity? Avaliable at 7/5 on 365. The guy he's fighting is supposedly a ko artist with 10 ko's from 16 fights though the quality of opponent wouldn't have been the best. Pendred is no great shakes himself but he has a lot of heart and has shown he can come back from the brink. Pendred will have to rely on pinning Montano against the fence or trying to get him down and wearing him out to hopefully sneak a decision. That's the only way I see him winning here .

CurryFlavoured

Pendred has a chance. Montano is chinny and easily taken down, but his striking is good and he obviously has a bit of power. The problem for Cathal is that it's unlikely he'll finish him, and if it goes to a decision in Mexico he won't be getting lucky again so he needs to win convincingly.

dulux99

I'm backing Pendred. I don't particularly rate Pendred to be honest, but Montano is overly wreckless and will get taken down IMO. John Kavanagh will have the game plan down to a tee.

csallmighty

Got Melendez vs Alvarez FOTN @ 9/5. Good price thought it would be aot shorter.

All_in_Flynn

What's people's opinions on the Melendez v Alvarez fight? If I was pricing it up myself without seeing what the bookmakers have it at I'd have it nearly the other way around with Alvarez at about 4/7.

At 13/8 I think he's a great price. Cerrone was all wrong for him but still think he put in a decent showing.

I'm also liking Cain at 5/6 to win by Ko/Tko.

mailburner

All_in_Flynn wrote: »

What's people's opinions on the Melendez v Alvarez fight? If I was pricing it up myself without seeing what the bookmakers have it at I'd have it nearly the other way around with Alvarez at about 4/7.

At 13/8 I think he's a great price. Cerrone was all wrong for him but still think he put in a decent showing.

I'm also liking Cain at 5/6 to win by Ko/Tko.

i'd have it more even than the bookies also
i certainly wouldnt be lumping on melendez at that price and do think we'll see a different alvarez tomorrow night
its one i cant bet on myself until I see the real alvarez but based on past fights this should be a great scrap

mailburner

never thought I'd see the day where you could bet on the tuf winner

http://www.oddschecker.com/ufc-mma/ultimate-fighter/winner

El Guapo!

Did a few bets for this one. I have a couple of serious bets and a few of the usual long-shot doubles, trebles & accumulators. All small stakes.

Single:

UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Cain Velasquez v Fabricio Werdum
14th of June 2015 05:00 am
Total Rounds
Under (2.5) @ 11/10

Double:

UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Cain Velasquez v Fabricio Werdum
14th of June 2015 05:00 am
Method & Round Combo
Cain Velasquez KO & Round 1 @ 7/2
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
2
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Augusto Montano v Cathal Pendred
14th of June 2015 00:30 am
Method of Victory
Cathal Pendred on Points @ 7/2

Double:

UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Cain Velasquez v Fabricio Werdum
14th of June 2015 05:00 am
Method of Victory
Cain Velasquez by KO @ 5/6
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
2
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Gilbert Melendez v Eddie Alvarez
14th of June 2015 04:30 am
Method of Victory
Gilbert Melendez on Points @ 13/8

Long-shot treble:

Selection Details Result
1
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Augusto Montano v Cathal Pendred
14th of June 2015 00:30 am
Method of Victory
Cathal Pendred by Submission @ 9/1
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
2
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Kelvin Gastelum v Nate Marquardt
14th of June 2015 04:00 am
Method of Victory
Kelvin Gastelum by KO @ 23/10
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
3
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Tecia Torres v Angela Hill
14th of June 2015 03:00 am
Method of Victory
Tecia Torres by KO @ 7/2

Long-shot Double:

UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Henry Cejudo v Chico Camus
14th of June 2015 02:30 am
Method of Victory
Chico Camus on Points @ 12/1
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
2
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Francisco Trevino v Johnny Case
14th of June 2015 01:00 am
Method of Victory
Johnny Case by KO @ 23/10

Long-shot accumulator:

Selection Selection Details Result
1
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Gilbert Melendez v Eddie Alvarez
14th of June 2015 04:30 am
Match Betting
Eddie Alvarez @ 13/8
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
2
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Augusto Montano v Cathal Pendred
14th of June 2015 00:30 am
Match Betting
Augusto Montano @ 8/13
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
3
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Kelvin Gastelum v Nate Marquardt
14th of June 2015 04:00 am
Match Betting
Nate Marquardt @ 7/2
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
4
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Cain Velasquez v Fabricio Werdum
14th of June 2015 05:00 am
Match Betting
Fabricio Werdum @ 7/2

Long-shot accumulator:

Selection Selection Details Result
1
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Cain Velasquez v Fabricio Werdum
14th of June 2015 05:00 am
Match Betting
Cain Velasquez @ 1/5
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
2
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Gilbert Melendez v Eddie Alvarez
14th of June 2015 04:30 am
Match Betting
Gilbert Melendez @ 1/2
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
3
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Kelvin Gastelum v Nate Marquardt
14th of June 2015 04:00 am
Match Betting
Kelvin Gastelum @ 1/5
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
4
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Yair Rodriguez v Charles Rosa
14th of June 2015 03:30 am
Match Betting
Charles Rosa @ 4/9
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
5
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Tecia Torres v Angela Hill
14th of June 2015 03:00 am
Match Betting
Tecia Torres @ 1/3
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
6
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Henry Cejudo v Chico Camus
14th of June 2015 02:30 am
Match Betting
Henry Cejudo @ 1/12
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
7
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Efrain Escudero v Drew Dober
14th of June 2015 02:00 am
Match Betting
Drew Dober @ 8/13
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
8
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Francisco Trevino v Johnny Case
14th of June 2015 01:00 am
Match Betting
Johnny Case @ 2/9
Pending

Selection Selection Details Result
9
UFC - MMA
UFC Matches
Augusto Montano v Cathal Pendred
14th of June 2015 00:30 am
Match Betting
Cathal Pendred @ 5/4

Depp

just a small one this week, werdum, marquart, pendred and torres, works out at about 60/1

martyos121

Pendred, Cejudo, Gastelum pts and Cain by KO.

Around 32/1, good value for that IMO.

EuskalHerria

Montano and Alvarez both to win by decision. 19/1.

Probably place others later.

Paully D

Escudero to beat Dober - 11/8

dickwod1

My bet for tonight,

Cathal Pendred @ 5/4
Cain Velasquez v Fabricio Werdum Under (2.5) Rounds @ 11/10
Angela Hill @ 9/4
Efrain Escudero @ 5/4

Accumulator 4
Total stake for this bet: €5.00
Potential returns: €172.76