Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

th3 s1aught3r

Wine Goddess wrote: »

Gerry looked mightily relieved just now to be talkin about thaw and mild weather - he didn't even flinch when mentioning temps dropping to 0 C overnight......
Methinks the weather peeps don't really like delivering extreme weather news on a regular basis
But I think (like all weather geeks) they secretly enjoy extreme weather!!!

I noticed that last week when things were bad they were talking a lot about thaws, even though they were like 5 days away. They must be told not to be too gloomy and be giving people more bad news

moggie4000

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

I noticed that last week when things were bad they were talking a lot about thaws, even though they were like 5 days away. They must be told not to be too gloomy and be giving people more bad news

I think the news readers have enough bad news to talk about, without the weatherman having a go too...

200motels

Looking at the various models for the end of next week and a trend is starting to become apparent, if it happens it will be a major snow event as most on here will agree, but as it's so far out it could all change, but I put my faith in MT'S forecasts as he's been spot on so far, and what I like about his forecasts is his explanation of all the weather jargon is easy to understand.

Yeah the northerly trend continues with it's anti waterford,wexford and south wicklow agenda this morning
ECM goes all northwesterly.

It's all good in the hood for the snow lovers of Ulster,North and west conaught,west munster including most of cork city and county and up the midlands to a lesser extent and perhaps Dublin and north leinster.

Best for Ulster of course.But as I said later,no details untill probably thursday or friday of next week are possible.
Also there are many tweaks in the model runs and mother natures eventual outcome to be had yet.
Stay tuned.

wildefalcon

I'd just like to thank all the people on this thread for their helpful advice and patience when dealing with people not familiar with the weather.

Well done and thank you!

roryc1

Gfs 06z look great for the whole country

first the north and north west from friday 17/12

then the east south east from sat 18/12

Harps

I've got mixed feelings about this one, its looking amazing for us at the moment but then I'm planning on heading home for Christmas next weekend so I'm not sure what I want

Min

John Eagleton on the 7:55am forecast was giving thunderstorms and snow showers for next weekend, he said it was still very early and it was the indications at present and that people should keep themselves updated with the weather forecast regularly.

irishmotorist

Harps wrote: »

... heading home for Christmas next weekend ...

Driving home for Christmas? Yeah! Top to to in taillights? Etc... :pac:

roryc1

roryc1 wrote: »

Gfs 06z look great for the whole country

first the north and north west from friday 17/12

then the east south east from sat 18/12

If we could get the ukmo and ecm both to show that it would be back to snowmageddon for most people with very few missing out alright.

The holy grail is that area of low pressure heading into the channel which tightens the gradient on the East/northeasterly topping up areas that will have missed out.
From a weather analysis point of view,this is fascinating but not so obviously from a disruption point of view.

Just to repeat,the current trend should bring snowmageddon into most western areas,all of Ulster and much of munster including properly for the first time Most of cork county and cork city.
The biggest action going on the trend looks like being Ulster and conaught though but I doubt snow lovers in places like Limerick Clare Kerry or Cork will be disappointed with their lot by the end of next weekend/start of the following week should things pan out as they are trending.
The trend can still vary.

Black Briar, could I ask you, is there a good chance the Dubs might miss out on snow?

Thanks.

Kippure

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Looks like a we will be in the thick of it.

I,d leave it till wednesday before we start to see the real outcome though

Musicman2000

Jake1 wrote: »

Black Briar, could I ask you, is there a good chance the Dubs might miss out on snow?

Thanks.

Jake At the moment and looking at trands on all charts I would say everyone in Ireland, is at risk and this set up doesn't favour a particular location in my opinion. This is why it could be different to our normal cold spells. The snowfall could be more organised giving spells of snow rather than convective snow showers although at times it would bring both.

Pangea

Things are looking very nice indeed, was disappointed in the last cold spell due to lack of snow due to the easterly,a northerly will certainly favour me. I hope things stay the way they are looking

Also just last week I was thinking that I could only get very low tempertures from the east, So sustained cold can come from the North too can it? I used to think Northerlys just came and went.

alfa beta

Jake1 wrote: »

Black Briar, could I ask you, is there a good chance the Dubs might miss out on snow?

Thanks.

East and south east might miss out at first - but that may not be the case later into the weekend (and early next week) - too early to call at this stage - but best be prepared to whatever extent you can.

I live in coastal area of county waterford but that ain't gonna stop me from doing all the important christmas shopping in the next couple of days - don't wanna be stuck here on the 25th trying to explain to a four year old why a magic sled and flying reindeers couldn't make it here because of some snow!!

Kippure

Jake1 wrote: »

Black Briar, could I ask you, is there a good chance the Dubs might miss out on snow?

Thanks.

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/152

This link will help you understand 'Thickness' is a measure of how warm or cold a layer of the atmosphere is, usually a layer in the lowest 5 km of the troposphere; high values mean warm air, and low values mean cold air.

Great for predicting snow.

WolfeIRE

Latest ECM weather model from Meteociel has cold and snow lasting through to at least Dec 27th

Dublin is uniquely placed geographically that it can get battered in northerly snow and northwesterly snow if the flow is potent enough.
This looks very potent!

Bear in mind too that even if the bigger picture is a NW or N flow,you can have features travelling down that enhance precipitation.
You could for example have a low drive south over the East of the country in a northerly,that would ironically pep up activity there.

So the short answer is [my opinion] I think it's unlikely Dublin will miss out.
Even if they did miss out,the chances of an East or NE flow at times out of this is also a good probabliity which could see Dublin in a certain scenario being hit first by the stuff that does hammer Ulster more and then get it's own Irish sea dose of the snow goodness!

(note this is theoretical,theres no way of knowing this far out,it all remains just a big risk at this stage and it goes without saying that a lot of people won't like the disruption that this will potentially cause)

I'll add again,it's my view that what we've seen to date may have just been a picnic compared to what might be coming.
Keep an eye to Mt's thread during the week for more analysis and thoughts on this.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Dublin is uniquely placed geographically that it can get battered in northerly snow and northwesterly snow if the flow is potent enough.
This looks very potent!

Bear in mind too that even if the bigger picture is a NW or N flow,you can have features travelling down that enhance precipitation.
You could for example have a low drive south over the East of the country in a northerly,that would ironically pep up activity there.

So the short answer is [my opinion] I think it's unlikely Dublin will miss out.
Even if they did miss out,the chances of an East or NE flow at times out of this is also a good probabliity which could see Dublin in a certain scenario being hit first by the stuff that does hammer Ulster more and then get it's own Irish sea dose of the snow goodness!

(note this is theoretical,theres no way of knowing this far out,it all remains just a big risk at this stage and it goes without saying that a lot of people won't like the disruption that this will potentially cause)

I'll add again,it's my view that what we've seen to date may have just been a picnic compared to what might be coming.
Keep an eye to Mt's thread during the week for more analysis and thoughts on this.

One word. Wow . Youve made my day now. Cheers
and all the rest of you who answered.

WolfeIRE

Joe B says the cold spell is likely to end around Christmas and he is predicting a return to much milder temperatures
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

Also just last week I was thinking that I could only get very low tempertures from the east, So sustained cold can come from the North too can it? I used to think Northerlys just came and went.

Scotlands record cold in the Xmas period of 1995 was from a northerly.
The problem with a northerly in Ireland as Mt will tell you is the long sea fetch modifies it.
With this mass over us in slack winds which they will be at times,it could lead to record lows being broken over snow cover.

Incidently all cold has it's core originality in polar regions so effectively a winter easterly is usually a northerly by the scenic route but crucially the reason why an easterly is usually better is because it has a bigger land track with lower dew points etc and none of this maratime mixing.

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Joe B says the cold spell is likely to end around Christmas and he is predicting a return to much milder temperatures
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather

That would be the 2nd time Mr Bastardi has changed his opinion of this since the start of november.
Will there be a third?

Of course it's going to end but we don't know when.Mr Bastardi's last 2 video forecasts were just an analysis of the model runs so his view on when this ends is based on either a hunch or deep FI...neither of which I have high confidence in
His short to medium term analysis is always a joy to read with his colourfull hyperbole but beyond that,it's pure speculations

WolfeIRE

Early Friday morn next

WolfeIRE

agreed on Joe B Black Briar.

Regarding a northerly airflow, an arctic airmass presens plenty of scope for convective activity in the seas to our north. The obvious extreme scenario would be the development of a Polar Low which, although hard to predict, would have a life span of 12-30 hrs or so and could bring heavy snow and winds to the country. I have no idea when the last PL was in Ireland but the setup as it stands does present an ideal breeding ground for such an eventuality. I notice that most of the models are indicating 3-4 blocking highs over greenland and a LP system over Svalbard. Svalbard is a breeding ground for PL's but that's a long way for a system to develop and travel to our shores.

Kippure

WolfeIRE wrote: »

agreed on Joe B Black Briar.

Regarding a northerly airflow, an arctic airmass presens plenty of scope for convective activity in the seas to our north. The obvious extreme scenario would be the development of a Polar Low which, although hard to predict, would have a life span of 12-30 hrs or so and could bring heavy snow and winds to the country. I have no idea when the last PL was in Ireland but the setup as it stands does present an ideal breeding ground for such an eventuality. I notice that most of the models are indicating 3-4 blocking highs over greenland and a LP system over Svalbard. Svalbard is a breeding ground for PL's but that's a long way for a system to develop and travel to our shores.

A late October polar low
Bob PrichardArticle first published online: 28 SEP 2009





http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.437/abstract?systemMessage=There+will+be+a+release+of+Wiley+Online+Library+scheduled+for+Sunday+19th+December+2010.+Access+to+the+website+will+be+disrupted+as+follows%3A+New+York+0500+EDT+to+0700+EDT%3B+London+1000+GMT+to+1200+GMT%3B+Singapore+1800+SGT+to+2000+SGT

lucy2010

Hi Wolfe - Im not really getting my head around much of the jargon ( as per usual). Can I get your simple english version on what you predict at this stage - Ive 2 very sick kiddies at the moment - santy has been on hold whilst trying to mind them so do I need to get my ass in gear & sort pronto rather than trying to explain how a bit of snow hampered santy & the boys from getting here.


On another note , papa Smurf said last week at the start of the snow that this was not the end of it.. he remembers 81/82 like yesterday & said he smelt a repeat performance. That was the point I checked his tablets to see what he had OD'd on But is this wise man on the button ??

yes I think so to both your questions Lucy!

maquiladora

06Z GFS paints an interesting picture for next weekend, almost all areas could be at risk for some snowfall at times.







Of course it's still a week away and there could and probably will be very significant changes by then, so its utterly pointless to say which counties may or may not see any significant snow at this stage.

Stay tuned, things will be clearer by the middle of the week.

lucy2010

Deleted User wrote: »

yes I think so to both your questions Lucy!

Jesus- Now you've put the wind up me BB... I trust you ,MT, WC ,Wolfe & SC more than I trust myself at the moment . I thought papa was raving again ...

Also the reminder to keep an eye on the old folks & kiddies. Ive a little tiny thing with pneumonia now as I couldnt get out to the doc & put it down to a dose .. Ill be checking in every day ... Thanks again guys...;)

Pangea

Your one on RTE news said we will return to the unseasonal weather by the end of next week, what season does she think we are in, Summer? :pac: