Cold Spell Chart, Forecast Analysis & Warnings- 29/11/2010 onwards

200motels

I'd say that the front coming in tonight will bring rain to these parts, it would be unusual for snow to come from the west down here, and I for one will be glad to see the rain.

timmy89

Mayo Exile wrote: »

M4/M6 buoy temp/dewpoints at 1600.

M4: +4.9/-3.6
M6: +7.8/+0.8

Getting positively balmy at M6 (approx 200 miles WSW Slyne Head) I'd say! This is bad for potential snow along western seaboard?

I just saw that! M6 had a neg dp at 1500 I think and was maybe 6.9 or 7c. Its gonna be messy in the west with freezing rain and ice tomorrow! Especially the housing estates with no road treatment.:(

thetonynator

So . . .general consensus for tomorrow? All snow/all rain/ somewhere in between?

Stokolan

200motels wrote: »

I'd say that the front coming in tonight will bring rain to these parts, it would be unusual for snow to come from the west down here, and I for one will be glad to see the rain.

I hope your right, You're not the only one fed up of this snow!

mickger844posts

200motels wrote: »

I'd say that the front coming in tonight will bring rain to these parts, it would be unusual for snow to come from the west down here, and I for one will be glad to see the rain.

I probably agree with you that we will have rain/sleet here tomorrow but this GFS Dew Point chart for tomorrow at 6am makes for interesting reading.

Musicman2000

I have a felling it could be snow in Waterford, Its more down to the very southwest and west that the temps are that bit higher

maquiladora

Just watching the new ECM roll out. I know it's FI but....



Don't put away the scarf and gloves yet!

Newtown90

Haven't been home from college in 3 weeks, was hoping to go home this weekend but looking at the weather charts and a few other websites i'm quite unsure whether to travel from cork to north kerry as i've an exam monday morning :mad::(...

Is it me or are there a lot of indifferent reports around talking about snow in the west and south tomorrow!

thetonynator

That -10 dewpoint for me is beautiful . .:D But i still have a bad feeling about it . . .for here anyway . . .

TheMilkyPirate

6.1 weather just gave snow for the whole country from that band tonight and later tomorrow. A load of red hazard signs dotted over the country too. Could be fun!

mickger844posts

Jean on the weather forecast just said snow for most tomorrow from the front thats coming in and GFS dew points would suggest that she could be right. Will be interesting for weather watchers tomorrow

th3 s1aught3r

Whats the prediction for next week ?
I heard them say it might get milder over the weekend but still be freezing at night....so the roads and pavements will be fun

Mayo Exile

1900 hrs M4 & M6 buoy temp/dp reports in.

M4 +5.9/-4.9
M6 +8.6/+2.9

M6 must be melting!

Why the wide discrepancy for the M4 reading between temp and dp? Is snow possible with a reading like that?

Link to buoy reports.

darkman2

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Whats the prediction for next week ?
I heard them say it might get milder over the weekend but still be freezing at night....so the roads and pavements will be fun

It will get slightly mider but it will still be very cold with wintry showers and severe frost and ice at night. Not as cold as now but still cold.

mickger844posts

Don't like the look of this for tomorrow, but looks good for Dublin

homolumo

mickger844posts wrote: »

Don't like the look of this for tomorrow, but looks good for Dublin

Dublin have had enough snow but anyway tomorrow will be a great day for weather watchers

Musicman2000

Id take that chart with a pinch of salt

Mr Benevolent

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Id take that chart with a pinch of salt

Yup, more rain then snow hopefully! Unless it's freezing rain that is.

isle of man

so what cauese it to be frezzeing rain instead of snow.

so its going to snow then rain and wash it all away :mad:

Dotsie~tmp

M6 is maybe 400 miles west. M4 is between Mayo and Donegal about 10 miles offshore. Its also right on the edge of this front.


http://www.met.ie/images/metMapBouys.gif

homolumo

M.T 's update is interesting.....

Musicman2000

And here it is:) MT'S Update


UPDATE _ Thursday 2 December _ 2040h
___________________________________

The forecast for later tonight and Friday is a difficult one, let's be clear about that ... at this point, I would say that most of Ireland will see 3-7 cms of snow from this front, and some places (most likely inland north to east) could see as much as 10-12 cms. There will also be some freezing drizzle or freezing rain mixed in, and this may be heavier in the inland south than elsewhere. Some places could get mostly this frozen type of precip. The whole mess could turn over to sleet for a while, and that's most likely near sea level and in places like Dublin city centre due to the local heat island raising temperatures by a degree or two.

Before this all arrives, some places will drop to -10 or even -12 C over the deep snow cover away from the coasts, before cloud spreads in and raises the temperature to about -4 C.

I will be updating this outlook as necessary, but for now, would say for most places, expect a medium-sized top up to existing snow, in some cases, new snow that will fall on bare ground, and in a few places, a heavy top-up ... perversely, the way this often works is that the deepest snow chills the surface layer the most effectively and thereby produces more snow locally than other places get.

What I will be watching for very carefully, is any sign of wave formation, which is partially anticipated in this (and probably other) forecast(s). If a well-organized wave developed west of about Clare tonight and tracked across the south, then this snowfall potential could increase to as much as 15-20 cms. So that is in the realm of possibility, I would say check back around 11 p.m. to midnight when updated model runs will be available and the front should be within radar range. The snow (or drizzle) should start on the west coast around 0300h.

timmy89

MT's update is very interesting! This will either be a disaster or it will be great!

Shiny

What time will this front reach the east coast?

compsys

Interesting to see Met Éireann's latest forecast. The so-called return to 'warmer' weather after Friday looks like being a damp squib. Temps for the foreseeable future look like remaining well below average even during the day. Only the far Atlantic coasts look like seeing anything approaching double figures.

Pentecost

Met Eireann being pretty specific that it's going to be more snow once the front hits the inland low temperatures.

th3 s1aught3r

Which agency has the most accurate medium term forecast (3-5) days ?

TheMilkyPirate

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Which agency has the most accurate medium term forecast (3-5) days ?

Boards.ie/weather

nlgbbbblth

Snow playing havoc with a social event I am organising in Wexford.

It was scheduled for this Saturday, 4th. Tickets nearly all sold.

I postponed it.

Have been offered the following Saturday 11th.

Hesitant to commit as I do not want to have to postpone it a second time. Forecast for next week is not great

Am tempted to wait until end of month - over New Year's weekend.

I realise nobody has a crystal ball but any advice?

Chuchoter

Any predictions for Monday/Tuesday in West Dublin? Do you think its still school closure kind of weather?