Cold Spell Chart, Forecast Analysis & Warnings- 29/11/2010 onwards

GavinH

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Dont worry about Sky news , There does seem to be some slight warming but its not nailed on yet and can still change so far out.

fingers crossed

munsterlegend

GavinH wrote: »

fingers crossed

is that front on friday not approaching from the north west as opposed to the south west? looking at Hirlam thats is what it appears to my amateur eye.

pistolpetes11

Does anyone else think that Friday is starting to look like more of an event ?

snaps

I can see a Christmas day 2009 scenario happening, temps well down in the minus figures but rain due to the high upper temps. It made everything lethal as soon as the rain hit dround it froze. We had Ice as high as low kerbs here then.

Timistry

So basically the south/west, who are due snow due to a front moving up form the south will have rain/sleet while the north/east whom have been snowed out will be buried in the white stuff?:(

Discodog

ME did mention something about a thaw Wed/Thur next week. Is this based on anything solid ?.

pistolpetes11

Discodog wrote: »

ME did mention something about a thaw Wed/Thur next week. Is this based on anything solid ?.

The latest model outputs , but they seem to keep pushing the breakdown back.

thebiglewbowski

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Does anyone else think that Friday is starting to look like more of an event ?

Every time i look at the charts it friday looks better and better. Cetainly for the midlands and the north.

munsterlegend

Timistry wrote: »

So basically the south/west, who are due snow due to a front moving up form the south will have rain/sleet while the north/east whom have been snowed out will be buried in the white stuff?:(

i thought its coming in from the west/north west per hirlam?

http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

an expert cold throw more guidance. always very marginal in the south/south west when hit by the atlantic.

pistolpetes11

Max Temp for Friday night , am I seeing things ?

inabina

gerry has 5C in the south for Friday...come on.....thats too high!

pistolpetes11

Rite thats it , even Frank Spencer AKA Gerry Murrphy called it snow on Friday

Gremlin

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Max Temp for Friday night , am I seeing things ?

If I'm not mistaken thats the chart for 03Z on friday morning (from thurs nite)

leahyl

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Rite thats it , even Frank Spencer AKA Gerry Murrphy called it snow on Friday

Yes both a nationwide snow event? What do you think Pistolpetes? Will it just be rain/sleet for the south and west? Probably!:(

Discodog

I am trying to plan outdoor work in Galway for tomorrow & Friday. All the online forecasts seem to be giving different predictions. ME's new predictive rainfall is showing far more rain/sleet than yr, xc, etc.

pistolpetes11

Gremlin wrote: »

If I'm not mistaken thats the chart for 03Z on friday morning (from thurs nite)

Yep your correct , but with that front coming in from the west , having lots of cold air there to meet it , can only be a good thing.

Mmcd

Did anyone hear the reporter in Dublin mention -17 on Sunday night at the start of the news. This looks nothing like what the GFS is showing!

pistolpetes11

leahyl wrote: »

Yes both a nationwide snow event? What do you think Pistolpetes? Will it just be rain/sleet for the south and west? Probably!:(

Not really sure at the moment , I think we will have to watch the track of the front , if it arrives early or late it could be very good for us all, If it arrives in the middle of the day like its supposed to then it wont be good for the west coast , south west, north west coasts but the midlands and N/S east coasts could all do well from it

patneve2

You wouldn't expect it, but the showers are extremely patchy on exposed coasts such as Dalkey. Just random graupel stones falling every now and again. Stupid wind blowing it all in land (where the showers slow down and dump inch after inch)

maquiladora

I think Friday's precip may start as snow in some areas but will probably then turn to rain/sleet as the upper air temps rise, but staying as snow on high ground. Hills and mountains could get a real dumping.

Hooter23

Mmcd wrote: »

Did anyone hear the reporter in Dublin mention -17 on Sunday night at the start of the news. This looks nothing like what the GFS is showing!

Ya I thought I heard him say -17:eek: it will be very cold Sunday night but not sure it will go that low

Harps

Would I be right to expect rain from this front then?

A bit confused by the reports on RTE of rain for the west but potentially snow for the north

Iancar29

Hooter23 wrote: »

Ya I thought I heard him say -17:eek: it will be very cold Sunday night but not sure it will go that low

Ye i was shocked aswell on hearing it... HAS TO BE wrong !... its crazy saying that without a mention of it on the ACTUAL forecast..

Calibos

patneve2 wrote: »

You wouldn't expect it, but the showers are extremely patchy on exposed coasts such as Dalkey. Just random graupel stones falling every now and again. Stupid wind blowing it all in land (where the showers slow down and dump inch after inch)

Thats what I am finding here on Bray Seafront too. From the mainstreet inland where the thaw was incomplete and they had a base to start from, even the crappy pathetic 5 minute showers every hour or so over Monday and Today has been enough to top them up to a few inches. Down here where there was a total thaw, we got a 1 inch slushy hail and grauple mix at 10 am topped up with another cm of slush throughout the day. Did I say Slush!!! Its depressing to see the constant streamers over greystones on the other side of Bray head dumping snow on greystones all day long and similarily the streamers either side of the 1km wide Bray gap rejoining and consolidating and slowing down and intensifying on the outskirts of the western side of the town and dumping inch upon inch of snow just a little bit further inland.

nacho libre

leahyl wrote: »

Yes both a nationwide snow event? What do you think Pistolpetes? Will it just be rain/sleet for the south and west? Probably!:(

unfortunately, no matter what time it arrives, it will be just rain and sleet in the west and southwest.
if it arrives between 4- 6am further inland, then it increases the chances of snow falling in the Midlands and further east. The deep snow cover may also increases the chance of people further east as well.
However, outside of high ground, as always counties like Longford, Monaghan, Cavan and parts of east Donegal, are favourite to get snow from these type of frontal situations.

I have a feeling that the snow will eventually turn back to rain in all places lower down as a slight warming trend is established. Then hopefully we see a temporary reload on Sunday with a northerly being established. Looking further ahead then it would seem a gradual warming trend emerges by midweek as high pressure looks to sink in over us. this will lead to very chilly nights and average temperatures by day. then the question will be does the high pressure stay over us for a week or two or sink south?
hopefully it retrogresses northwards, as then Joe Bastardi may have to admit he called it wrong. Although as it stands there is a possibility he will be able to say I told you so, because if high pressure is very close to us, the coldest air will be shifted to where he forecasted it to be this winter.

naughto

nacho libre wrote: »

unfortunately, no matter what time it arrives, it will be just rain and sleet in the west and southwest.
if it arrives between 4- 6am further inland, then it increases the chances of snow falling in the Midlands and further east. The deep snow cover may also increases the chance of people further east as well.
However, outside of high ground, as always counties like Longford, Monaghan, Cavan and parts of east Donegal, are favourite to get snow from these type of frontal situations.

I have a feeling that the snow will eventually turn back to rain in all places lower down as a slight warming trend is established. Then hopefully we see a temporary reload on Sunday with a northerly being established. Looking further ahead then it would seem a gradual warming trend emerges by midweek as high pressure looks to sink in over us. this will lead to very chilly nights and average temperatures by day. then the question will be does the high pressure stay over us for a week or two or sink south?
hopefully it retrogresses northwards, as then Joe Bastardi may have to admit he called it wrong. Although as it stands there is a possibility he will be able to say I told you so, because if high pressure is very close to us, the coldest air will be shifted to where he forecasted it to be this winter.

i dont no nacho i think when it hist the cold air it will turn to snow as it will be soooo cold at that stage

nacho libre

naughto wrote: »

i dont no nacho i think when it hist the cold air it will turn to snow as it will be soooo cold at that stage

Well i really hope so, but i would advise you not to get your hopes up at the same time.

timmy89

naughto wrote: »

i dont no nacho i think when it hist the cold air it will turn to snow as it will be soooo cold at that stage

I wouldnt be to hopeful either. All the models suggest rain on the west and south west coast up to about 70-90 miles inland.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Im no expert what so ever but Im just going through the charts and graphs and that is what they are saying to me!

Edit. That link works but didnt point to the page I wanted. Ther is a tab with snow risk in the drop down menu and from it I gather that the west of ireland has 30-40 % chance of snow on friday morning-afternoon

pistolpetes11

nacho libre wrote: »

Well i really hope so, but i would advise you not to get your hopes up at the same time.

The way gerry called it on the weather forecast just now was, rain develops off the west coast but as it hits land it will fall as sleet and snow .

Didnt mention it falling as rain when it hits land

MayoForSam

Freezing rain would be the pits, trying to get my missus to work last St. Stephen's Day was an utter nightmare, way worse than snow for driving on.