Cold Spell Chart, Forecast Analysis & Warnings- 29/11/2010 onwards

SeaFields

This has probably been asked already and many time...but what is up with Malin head? At the 9pm Met Eireann update it is at 2C. It's always way warmer than anywhere else. Currently warmest in the country.

Is it an error ? Or accurate?

thebiglewbowski

Here is a chart to help explain what gerry was mentioning about friday..



the westerly atlantic system will raise the temp in the south and west dumping rain as temps reach 3 to 5 during the day, but the north and parts of the east will remain sub zero cause snowfall from the same system

timmy89

thebiglewbowski wrote: »

Here is a chart to help explain what gerry was mentioning about friday..



the westerly atlantic system will raise the temp in the south and west dumping rain as temps reach 3 to 5 during the day, but the north and parts of the east will remain sub zero cause snowfall from the same system

Thats more or less what I was trying to say! Thanks for including the chart which I failed to do properly!:):)

thebiglewbowski

Lets hope were wrong tho!

thetonynator

thebiglewbowski wrote: »

Here is a chart to help explain what gerry was mentioning about friday..



the westerly atlantic system will raise the temp in the south and west dumping rain as temps reach 3 to 5 during the day, but the north and parts of the east will remain sub zero cause snowfall from the same system

Pity thats the 18z, the 12z for that time was so much nicer . . .


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Vizual Pics

Update from MT Cranium at 21:40 on Daily prediction thread:

UPDATE _ Wednesday, 9:30 p.m.
___________________________

No big changes, forecast remains as per the earlier version through THURSDAY NIGHT, then latest guidance backs up the idea that any warming on Friday will be very much confined to the outer west and south coasts, where it could reach +5 C ... but for most places where people actually live, the cold air will be very tough to move with this weak, feeble warm front approaching, and the result is likely to be bands of freezing rain and snow to the north of a front that only makes limited progress inland during the day Friday. This may mean that areas now covered in snow will anchor the cold air in place and the freezing rain is more likely to be in areas that have little or no snow at present, while the areas now with snow cover could get some more on Friday.

The weekend continues to look quite cold with scattered wintry showers, and then the possible storm discussed for Monday-Tuesday is now (as suspected) being weakened on model runs to the extent that it's really just a continuation of a cold, northeast wind trend through that period and the effects of the storm will be held well off to the south and later southeast of Ireland as the low remains near northwest Spain throughout. What that means for the weather in Ireland is likely near-freezing temperatures continuing with outbreaks of light snow in the east.

Eventually higher pressure is likely to build across Ireland later in the week and may remain anchored nearby for several days. The upper portions of the atmosphere may warm with that, but the surface could remain bitterly cold due to the inversion created and the likely remnant snow cover. In other words, it may not be warming up very substantially, if at all, for a week or two and possibly more.

My research suggests that if the cold persists to about the 18th-19th before the full moon, then a winter storm will likely develop at that time (20th-21st), whereas if it does manage to get mild then this would become a rainfall event followed by colder weather. Thinking now that the odds would favour this being a winter storm event ... and possibly we are on our way to the coldest December in many years.
I like this version alot more for the West's hopes of snow! Thanks MT!

irish1967

As starved of snow as I am sitting here on the NW coast are there any circumstances that would allow the front which will come off the Atlantic on Friday will be snow bearing as it hits the coast ? The general consensus is that it will be rain when it hits. Are there any charts that suggest any different ?

North Cork

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/postman-delivers-his-chilling-verdict-icy-blast-to-last-for-weeks-or-months-2442957.html

Postman delivers his chilling verdict: icy blast to last for weeks -- or months


By Anita Guidera

Wednesday December 01 2010

Michael Gallagher, who accurately predicted the current big freeze three weeks ago, said the outlook for the coming weeks was for little change.
"The signs were very bad back then and I'm sorry to say there is very little change. I have never seen animals and birds so agitated," he said.
The 62-year-old, who has been delivering post in Donegal's Bluestack Mountains for more than 40 years, said that the only possibility for brief respite would come with the new moon on Sunday night.
"This will either make or break it. If a change doesn't come then, we will be looking at least at the next full moon two to three weeks from now," he said.
Michael observes the movements of insects, birds and animals in the wild to make his predictions, and cannot remember snow settling so early in the year.
"The signs are very bad. There's nothing out there that makes me feel happy. Everything is very agitated out there. There is a wild hunger which is making the foxes, blackbirds, deer, everything, come closer to the people. That's always a bad sign," he added.
- Anita Guidera
Irish Independent

mike2084

We seem to be living a charmed life down here in Kerry there was only snow on Saturday night. Whilst it is very cold the roads are pretty good and there has been little disruption as far as I have seen. Does the front on Friday look
like producing anything interesting down here?

IMBACKLATER

I for one am bitter-and not bitterly cold. Being here in the snow starved west only to hear that this system coming from the west will reintroduce our beloved atlantic muck, i can see it, misty drizzlely muck falling gracefully from the skies on friday night/morning, dosent matter night or day it will be atlantic muck for western coastal extremties i know this for sure 110 per cent. The air will be modified and we will have mediocre cold or misery cold as i like to term it. Bye Bye exceptional cold and the chances of proper snowfall. All in all a very disapointing anti climatic nothing.

rant over.

maquiladora

18Z NAE looks good for a lot of people on Friday, falling on the right side of marginal for snow, this model keeps the colder upper air over us a bit longer than the GFS on Friday.

Pangea

North Cork wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/postman-delivers-his-chilling-verdict-icy-blast-to-last-for-weeks-or-months-2442957.html

Postman delivers his chilling verdict: icy blast to last for weeks -- or months

Thanks, he did say the last day that the cold spell might last another wile but he did say this winter would not be as severe as last winter.
Maybe he changed his mind.

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

Thanks, he did say the last day that the cold spell might last another wile but he did say this winter would not be as severe as last winter.
Maybe he changed his mind.

Just got to wait for the 18Z Dongel Postman ensembles to come out. Could be an outlier. :P

SantryRed

Lads, what chance would you say a flight from Luton leaving at half 6 in the morning will make it to Dublin Airport? Or will it be closed? Thanks!!

4Sheets

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/01/11/years-global-cooling-coming-leading-scientist-says/

:cool:

thetonynator

Pangea wrote: »

Thanks, he did say the last day that the cold spell might last another wile but he did say this winter would not be as severe as last winter.
Maybe he changed his mind.

I'm not sure he understands the ''fore'' part of forecast . . .:rolleyes:

thetonynator

I know this chart has already happened but i want to save it for posterity . . . :P

Gremlin

Just watching this frontal activity over the south of the UK tonight. Looks like some impressive precip. . Wonder if it might have an impact on the south coast of ireland?

Takeshi_Kovacs

Michael Walsh wrote: »

We seem to be living a charmed life down here in Kerry there was only snow on Saturday night. Whilst it is very cold the roads are pretty good and there has been little disruption as far as I have seen. Does the front on Friday look
like producing anything interesting down here?

At the moment, it it will probaly be rain/drizzle on lower lands (cold mind though..), although there is a good possibility that higher ground in places like Rathmore etc will get sleet/snow. Could also bring a large dumping of snow for the mountains as well, so long as it does not warm too much

maquiladora

Gremlin wrote: »

Just watching this frontal activity over the south of the UK tonight. Looks like some impressive precip. . Wonder if it might have an impact on the south coast of ireland?

That area of precip will hang around the southeast UK area, it won't be heading towards us.

Winger_PL

SantryRed wrote: »

Lads, what chance would you say a flight from Luton leaving at half 6 in the morning will make it to Dublin Airport? Or will it be closed? Thanks!!

I think that this flight will be cancelled due to conditions at both Luton (given what's currently falling down in the UK) and Dublin (which may actually be open if the wind direction doesn't change overnight). You can't know for sure unless you check with the airline prior to the flight.

nacho libre

Vizual Pics wrote: »

Update from MT Cranium at 21:40 on Daily prediction thread:

UPDATE _ Wednesday, 9:30 p.m.
___________________________

No big changes, forecast remains as per the earlier version through THURSDAY NIGHT, then latest guidance backs up the idea that any warming on Friday will be very much confined to the outer west and south coasts, where it could reach +5 C ... but for most places where people actually live, the cold air will be very tough to move with this weak, feeble warm front approaching, and the result is likely to be bands of freezing rain and snow to the north of a front that only makes limited progress inland during the day Friday. This may mean that areas now covered in snow will anchor the cold air in place and the freezing rain is more likely to be in areas that have little or no snow at present, while the areas now with snow cover could get some more on Friday.

T!

hmm. here's to it stallling, resulting in continuous heavy snow over the west and midlands for a 24 hour period.

if only..

thetonynator

nacho libre wrote: »

hmm. here's to it stallling, resulting in continuous heavy snow over the west and midlands for a 24 hour period.

if only..

Even if it did hang round for a while, it would probably result in it warming the air and ending up as rain . . the quicker it passes the better as it'll be less likely to melt what we already have.

nacho libre

thetonynator wrote: »

Even if it did hang round for a while, it would probably result in it warming the air and ending up as rain . . the quicker it passes the better as it'll be less likely to melt what we already have.

yes that's true:(.

it's nice to dream though, especially in these bleak times when you've not seen much snow of late

WallyGUFC

I live about 40 miles from the extreme West coast but only about 6 or 7 away from coast to the South, on low ground. No chance of snow I'm assuming?

homolumo

thetonynator wrote: »

Even if it did hang round for a while, it would probably result in it warming the air and ending up as rain . . the quicker it passes the better as it'll be less likely to melt what we already have.

Just watching the BBC weather, it seems relatively fast moving and they show snow for the west, north west, midlands but turning to rain in the south east. I think that it has more to do with the time of the day it passes over than anything else i.e. roughly midday for the east of the country.

leahyl

homolumo wrote: »

Just watching the BBC weather, it seems relatively fast moving and they show snow for the west, north west, midlands but turning to rain in the south east. I think that it has more to do with the time of the day it passes over than anything else i.e. roughly midday for the east of the country.

I think someone said on here the other day (maybe Pistolpetes) that if the rain passes over really early/late makes a difference to whether or not Cork gets snow - ie. if it passes over when it's supposed to then we will prob get sleet/rain but if it passes over earlier or later than it could be snow. So since you just said that it's due to pass over the east at around midday (which was the time it was originally meant to pass over us i think!) that means it will pass over us earlier! Snow perhaps??!!:D

Of course i'm prob totally wrong here! But hey a girl can dream!:D

Pangea

Risk of disruption Warning Valid
Northern Ireland:
Co Antrim
Co Armagh
Co Derry
Co Down
Co Fermanagh
Co Tyrone
Heavy Snow & Widespread Icy Roads Fri 3 Dec

A band of sleet and snow will cross from the northwest during the day, with snow accumulations of 3 to 6 cm in places. Widespread icy stretches are likely to form on untreated surfaces afterwards into the evening period under clearing skies.

Issued at: 0418 Thu 2 Dec

Hopefully it turns to snow in Donegal before it hits these Counties.
The Met Uk radar has precipation for Donegal a lot over the weekend, snow or rain?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_radar.html

premiercad

uk met charts showing a cold front after the occluded front passes that could mean more snow

homolumo

leahyl wrote: »

I think someone said on here the other day (maybe Pistolpetes) that if the rain passes over really early/late makes a difference to whether or not Cork gets snow - ie. if it passes over when it's supposed to then we will prob get sleet/rain but if it passes over earlier or later than it could be snow. So since you just said that it's due to pass over the east at around midday (which was the time it was originally meant to pass over us i think!) that means it will pass over us earlier! Snow perhaps??!!:D

Of course i'm prob totally wrong here! But hey a girl can dream!:D

I think anything could happen to be honest hence the generality of Met Eireann's forecast for tomorrow. I would imagine here in the SE it will fall as rain.