Prolonged cold spell on the way

Min

nacho libre wrote: »

oh no it's all over one run has changed completely:pac:

even if a breakdown does come, which is likley as time goes on, it could lead to widespread sleet and snow before milder air takes over. so a breakdown doesn't have to be all doom and gloom. in any case judging by the uk met office a breakdown is unlikely to lead to long period of raging zonality. they are obviously confident this pattern will be hard to shift.

It was certainly hard to shift last winter.

maquiladora

Winger_PL wrote: »

Am I correct by thinking there's a slight chance of a few flakes falling (but not lasting) in Coleraine around Wednesday morning, at least according to GFS?
And no, it has nothing to do with a certain forum member :rolleyes: I'm just trying to check if I'm getting better at understanding the charts.

Slight chance on hills/mountains. Rain at low levels I'd say? Thats know it looks on the 12Z GFS to me, kinda meaningless though cause its virtually impossible to nail precip like that at 100+ hours...

Winger_PL

maquiladora wrote: »

Thats know it looks on the 12Z GFS to me, kinda meaningless though cause its virtually impossible to nail precip like that at 100+ hours...

I'm aware that, I just wanted to check whether I'd be correct assuming that's an actual chart (from the past) rather than FI.

maquiladora

For entertainment purposes have a look at the 12Z GFS control run around around 264. :rolleyes:

Kippure

The Cold Train rides roughshod over Europe

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj

homolumo

Kippure wrote: »

The Cold Train rides roughshod over Europe

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj

why can't we get some of that blue??

carlmwan

that guy thinks we will have a warmer winter than normal :mad:

redsteveireland

t|nt|n wrote: »

I do love a good darkman2 thread !

Back for more this winter?
Just don't hog it all in naas;-)

maquiladora

12Z ECM is a cold, dry run with the breakdown appearing deep in FI. Not much else to say about it really!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

redsteveireland wrote: »

Back for more this winter?
Just don't hog it all in naas;-)

I have been hibernating all summer

Bah... I hate summer ! :pac::p

Kippure

Why does joe think that the atlantic will kick in later in winter? Hence his forecast the cold further south in europe.

thetonynator

maquiladora wrote: »

For entertainment purposes have a look at the 12Z GFS control run around around 264. :rolleyes:

This one???


FI that is . . .:P

Pangea

Heavy snow for election day?
Hope all fianna fail voters are trapped in their houses next week due to heavy snow

and a free snow bus provided for all non fianna fail voters :pac:

gothwalk

t|nt|n wrote: »

I have been hibernating all summer

My vocabulary nerd skillz are twitching. If you sleep all summer, you estivate.

maquiladora

thetonynator wrote: »

This one???

FI that is . . .:P

Yep thats it. Its not going to happen, but if it was cold enough for the precip to fall as snow that would be epic.

maquiladora

18Z GFS rolling out....out to 120 hours and looking better than the 12Z

Kippure

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20101119/18/117/h850t850eu.png


[IMG][/img]

The gates are starting to open up. The cold starting to flow towards us.

Redsunset

I'd never have thought i'd be on a Rollercoaster in November.Phew!!!!!!

maquiladora

18Z GFS would bring a risk of snow showers to north/east areas, esp high ground around Wednesday and Thursday, thats an upgrade from the 12Z anyway. Pity about the upper temps not staying low after that but those are details that will change before then so not too concerning.

Getting into FI now, let's see what happens.

thetonynator

redsunset wrote: »

I'd never have thought i'd be on a Rollercoaster in November.Phew!!!!!!

Yeah the one in tramore always closed in september . . .:P

Musicman2000

Just watching the forecast on BBC 1, He said come next friday temps wont rise much above freezing:D

maquiladora

18Z GFS FI brings the snow for next weekend but then quickly breaks it down with the Atlantic in Terminator mode. Doesn't look very realistic, but sure its FI.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

gothwalk wrote: »

My vocabulary nerd skillz are twitching. If you sleep all summer, you estivate.

I do apologise ! Though is there really a z in skills ?

WolfeIRE

models have the cold spell breaking down in the first week of december.

Still too far out to warrent further comment.

Looking forward to every run now.:D

thetonynator

WolfeIRE wrote: »

models have the cold spell breaking down in the first week of december.

Still too far out to warrent further comment.

Looking forward to every run now.:D

Ignore that, everyone knows that the FI territory charts are only likely to happen if we want them to!!!

maquiladora

18Z ensembles for Dublin...



As soon as we enter the cold spell, the mean stays below the 30 year average for the rest of the run.

Op run had mostly less cold upper air than the mean.

Anything after the 29th is completely up in the air.

pauldry

Next week looks cold alright but come the start of December not quite as cold. Certainly the mountains will have snow next week and to the end of November temperatures are looking low through the net..

even http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/EIXX0014?role=

is not showing snow for dublin just temperatures of 6 or 7c on most days though maybe they just programme an expected temperature for that time of the month into the weather database system and use that

I think it will be 4 or 5c a couple of the days next week in dublin

As for Sligo Id say we may get some haily sleety stuff if the temperatures drop low enough but Id reckon Sligo will have 5 or 6 by day and even though it will be minus 1 or 2 some nights I dont see snow.

Danno

thetonynator wrote: »

Ignore that, everyone knows that the FI territory charts are only likely to happen if we want them to!!!

How things turn full circle... now we look to FI for *mild*

darkman2

GME first up on the 00z's







Asstonishing for the time of year really. Snow for all and plenty of it.

M.T. Cranium

This may sound like one of those ED ads where you have to call your doctor etc, but the GFS has a tendency to drift off any kind of retrograde trend around day 9-10 and run home to its progressive bias. I think that always needs to be in back of mind when assessing colder patterns as they play out towards the end of the run. Of course climatology says 80% chance that any early winter cold spell breaks down fairly quickly, so it's not unrealistic, but there is a very anomalous pattern already in place across the Russian and Siberian sector of the arctic and even subarctic now. I mentioned in some thread back in August that the smoke from the Russian fires might become a winter factor in terms of setting up early and deep cold in central Siberia -- not sure if that was the actual cause, but in fact there has been deep cold in central Siberia since mid-October and I would think today's temperatures there must be 15-20 degrees below normal in some places (-40 where should be -20) ... and this cold anomaly spreads northwest into the Kara Sea, Franz Josef Land was reporting -25 C and Svalbard is well down below normal too.

What I'm getting at is that the season has a real classic look already, and could deliver on some extreme cold all the way west to Ireland and into the eastern Atlantic, if it's at all possible in this climate setup. Then it's a matter of self-reinforcing cold as SST anomalies drop (the Baltic is key) and snow builds up early on land between Russia-Poland-eastern Germany source region for cold air, and Ireland. This can help keep a pattern locked in, if the countervailing tendencies are not overly strong (i.e., zonal flow suppressed).

I'm getting the feeling that this may turn into a very active winter circulation across the central Atlantic into the Med, leaving a vacuum for retrogression to fill with easterly flow and high-latitude blocking highs. There will be a lot of anomalous warmth available from around the Gulf of Mexico and Florida but if that is not directed too far north, then you can expect a sort of locked-in cold pattern to develop over Europe. Iberia would turn very stormy in that pattern, I would think the place to vacation this winter might be Egypt or Florida because the Spanish resorts might be getting hammered with rain and wind much of the time. An active storm track from about Lisbon to Rome to Athens would correlate with the northern blocking. That might break down for short periods and fire in the occasional strong Atlantic storm across Ireland, then another period of blocking might redevelop.