Significant Snow risk - Monday 29th/Tuesday 30th

compsys

Current temp in Ballyhaise is 1c with snow falling while further south in Shannon it's 2c. Meanwhile in Dublin it's a relatively balmy late-March evening with a temp of 10 degrees! Can anyone explain? Certainly doesn't bode well for the prospect of any snowfall in the capital tomorrow...

445279.ie

Heavy rain here in West Limerick, bloody cold too :mad:

Chicken Run

WolfeIRE wrote: »

snowing heavily here since 7.30.

an inch or more lying and continuing to build. snow much deeper again about 100 metres more asl

just been out to feed the animals and a nice white layer on the ground here too

but my poor seedlings

WolfeIRE

Looks like midlands and northern half of leinster will see a pasting tomorrow evening and night.

Still snowing here. About 3cm now and it's bringing back memories of the great snow fall of January.

compsys

compsys wrote: »

Current temp in Ballyhaise is 1c with snow falling while further south in Shannon it's 2c. Meanwhile in Dublin it's a relatively balmy late-March evening with a temp of 10 degrees! Can anyone explain? Certainly doesn't bode well for the prospect of any snowfall in the capital tomorrow...

It's very simple to explain actually.
The East isn't under the cold air yet.
It hasn't spread there yet.
It's coming though

M.T. Cranium

Yeah compsys and anyone else, the explanation is that the low is around Laois with a warm front east-north-east to just north of Dublin, and a cold front southwest about to hammer through Cork. Anyone north of that warm sector has 2-4 C at best now, anyone south of the fronts is in the warm sector where it's 9 or 10 C. It will stay that mild all night in the warm sector which is only getting pushed east at a snail's pace, in fact I mentioned in the forecast that you could probably keep up with this low on foot. That leading edge of the colder air could get a bit thundery later on as it approaches the uplift of the Dublin and Wicklow mountains, and geomagnetic disturbance increases with the full moon overhead. It won't be anything too dramatic but a few rumbles of thunder would not surprise me (peak for this would be 0300 to 0600 summer time, now there's a misnomer if ever there was one).

So if you're in Kildare just watch for the big L to drift overhead this evening, it should take about three hours to cross Kildare and then three more to cross Dublin, by sunrise it will be somewhere very close to Dublin airport and then it will take all day tomorrow to cross the Irish Sea to Anglesey, but as soon as it moves past, that cold air will snap through and temperatures should drop to about 2-3 C.

The snowfall idea hinges on further cooling as the warm sector occludes rapidly (meaning that it will be lifted off the surface as cold air wraps around the centre, this will accelerate through tomorrow) and instead of 2-3 C the air mass will be more like 0.5 to 1.5, probably cold enough for heavy snow to begin in Ulster for certain, and counties from Dublin north and west except right at sea level and in town centres, it's that marginal that even the degree or so of an urban heat island could be enough to keep rain from changing to snow. But the chances improve through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the slow movement of the low is going to be a factor in your favour to get some accumulating snow out of this eventually.

derekon

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Yeah compsys and anyone else, the explanation is that the low is around Laois with a warm front east-north-east to just north of Dublin, and a cold front southwest about to hammer through Cork. Anyone north of that warm sector has 2-4 C at best now, anyone south of the fronts is in the warm sector where it's 9 or 10 C. It will stay that mild all night in the warm sector which is only getting pushed east at a snail's pace, in fact I mentioned in the forecast that you could probably keep up with this low on foot. That leading edge of the colder air could get a bit thundery later on as it approaches the uplift of the Dublin and Wicklow mountains, and geomagnetic disturbance increases with the full moon overhead. It won't be anything too dramatic but a few rumbles of thunder would not surprise me (peak for this would be 0300 to 0600 summer time, now there's a misnomer if ever there was one).

So if you're in Kildare just watch for the big L to drift overhead this evening, it should take about three hours to cross Kildare and then three more to cross Dublin, by sunrise it will be somewhere very close to Dublin airport and then it will take all day tomorrow to cross the Irish Sea to Anglesey, but as soon as it moves past, that cold air will snap through and temperatures should drop to about 2-3 C.

The snowfall idea hinges on further cooling as the warm sector occludes rapidly (meaning that it will be lifted off the surface as cold air wraps around the centre, this will accelerate through tomorrow) and instead of 2-3 C the air mass will be more like 0.5 to 1.5, probably cold enough for heavy snow to begin in Ulster for certain, and counties from Dublin north and west except right at sea level and in town centres, it's that marginal that even the degree or so of an urban heat island could be enough to keep rain from changing to snow. But the chances improve through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the slow movement of the low is going to be a factor in your favour to get some accumulating snow out of this eventually.

Brilliant explanation MT, thanks for that.

So does this mean parts of Leinser (Wicklow , Dublin, etc) will not see snow tomorrow and that only counties to the north and west of Dublin will see the white stuff?

Derek

Deep Easterly

Complete and utter whiteout here :eek:

Just kidding, just drizzle of varying intensity; a cold, raw night out there with the wind and all. 2.9c with rain temp at 2.5c.

Just 0.9mm away from 20mm total today, hoping to break it before midnight so at least I can have one half interesting weather stat this month.

compsys

Cheers for the explanation MT.

eskimocat

Evening all!!! long time no post... went back to lurking for a while, but when someone mentions the possiblity of snow, well whats a girl gonna do but login!!! YAHOOOOOO! i just love it that the views are back in the thousands... not a bit of snow here yet... fingers crossed!

pauldry

Temps dipped to 3.1c (8pm) in Sligo and were on a downward curve till the rain stopped now its got a tiny bit milder and its 3.4c(930pm)

Elmo5

Under that warm bit at the moment here, a lovely 9 degrees.

445279.ie

Snowing in Newcastle West!!

ch750536

Now have an inch of snow on the floor, in the last hour! :eek:

Strong westerly, v.heavy snowfall. sticking lots.

xi

Snow in Limerick City, too wet to stick though

owenc

ch750536 wrote: »

Now have an inch of snow on the floor, in the last hour! :eek:

Strong westerly, v.heavy snowfall. sticking lots.

Rougies

Woah, haven't lurked here for a couples of weeks and today I'm greeted with this snow event

Great to see some interesting weather again and some activity on the forum!

Here's a pic I made for ya.... steep temp gradient indeed!

Edit .. pic a bit big .. click below...
https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/195885/109133.jpg

owenc

xi wrote: »

Snow in Limerick City, too wet to stick though

So it's basically snowing everywhere else except for here now!:(

Papa_Lazarou

Raining heavily here in cork.

Rougies

Shannon Airport reporting light snow.

WolfeIRE

Rougies wrote: »

Shannon Airport reporting light snow.

Yep. Snowing here still too. 0C and an inch and a half on the ground.

Tactical

Snow sticking here in West Limerick Happy days (or nights ) Didn't think I see snow again so soon :D:D

NufcNavan

Can anyone tell me the chances of snow falling around the Meath area tonight?

Rougies

NufcNavan wrote: »

Can anyone tell me the chances of snow falling around the Meath area tonight?

Slim. Tomorrow night the fun begins in the East

Just enjoy the snow reports from the westies for now

EDIT: Any chance of some pics lads?

snow ghost

Nice to have some interesting weather and to see some people getting snow... first person to post a pic here of a snowman made out of this wins a Paul Cunnigham sock hat.

WolfeIRE

Rougies wrote: »

Slim. Tomorrow night the fun begins in the East

Just enjoy the snow reports from the westies for now

bear in mind rougies that Tactical, Chicken Run and I are on high ground. I believe it is still raining in Ennis. Don;t know how widespread snowfall is in Clare at the moment

WolfeIRE

snow ghost wrote: »

first person to post a pic here of a snowman made out of this wins a Paul Cunnigham sock hat.

this hat? :D:D

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

bear in mind rougies that Tactical, Chicken Run and I are on high ground. I believe it is still raining in Ennis. Don;t know how widespread snowfall is in Clare at the moment

No snow or sleet in Galway, just moderate rain at the moment. Temp rising a little on 3.1c currently. Rain temp rising also on 2.7c.

Rougies

WolfeIRE wrote: »

bear in mind rougies that Tactical, Chicken Run and I are on high ground. I believe it is still raining in Ennis. Don;t know how widespread snowfall is in Clare at the moment

Yeah I noticed that alright. Still any snow under 200m at the moment bodes well for tomorrow I think.

JanuarySnowstor

It appears to be the 'perfect storm' as it winds itself up in a perfect position to drive the cold air South.
Beginning to look like a Nationwide event to rival anything seen all Winter!!
I think Met Eireann's warnings are inadequate to what's about to happen