Cold Spell Discussion: Heavy Snow this evening especially in eastern/southern areas

cherryghost

i just hope the stuff is delayed til after dark. seems the west should be getting it late in the afternoon

snow ghost

Su Campu wrote: »

Fair enough, maybe I am way off then. I wouldn't expect them to be snow in the afternoon though with solar heating, but it'll be interesting to watch what happens tonight.

You were spot on Su... there was me saying 'upper theta levels me ar*e' and the boody rain started. lol

Su Campu

snow ghost wrote: »

Su Campu,

Just as I posted that last post to you, it started raining! :pac:

I take it something must have changed since my last snow shower... well spotted.

Lol, the sun changeth everything!

Deep Easterly

snow ghost wrote: »

You were spot on Su... there was me saying 'upper theta levels me ar*e' and the boody rain started. lol

Getting quite dark here. Strange weather really. If the showers out to sea make it here no doubt they will be of rain as temp is 3.6c. 40m asl.

Su Campu

****ing typical, talk about bad timing - first the radars go, now today's 12Z Valentia sounding has no dewpoint curve! :mad:

Su Campu

National Forecast


20 February 2010 11:53

Today Inland frost and freezing fog will gradually clear, to leave many areas bright and dry this afternoon. However wintry showers affecting western coastal areas will become more widespread across Munster, the midlands and Leinster later this afternoon and evening, with falls of snow in places. Highest temperatures of 3 to 5 degrees.

Tonight

Outbreaks of sleet and snow will continue for a time across the midlands and east early tonight but will clear later. A few wintry showers will continue to affect northwest coasts. Otherwise the night will be very cold with a widespread severe frost, ice, and freezing fog patches. Lowest temperatures will range from zero to minus 6 degrees.

munsterlegend

Su Campu wrote: »

National Forecast


20 February 2010 11:53

Today Inland frost and freezing fog will gradually clear, to leave many areas bright and dry this afternoon. However wintry showers affecting western coastal areas will become more widespread across Munster, the midlands and Leinster later this afternoon and evening, with falls of snow in places. Highest temperatures of 3 to 5 degrees.

Tonight

Outbreaks of sleet and snow will continue for a time across the midlands and east early tonight but will clear later. A few wintry showers will continue to affect northwest coasts. Otherwise the night will be very cold with a widespread severe frost, ice, and freezing fog patches. Lowest temperatures will range from zero to minus 6 degrees.

i think we might miss out again down here...the further north as usual looks better.

nacho libre

going on the latest informartion, i think it's a good thing owenc has been banned. the poor guy would have an ulcer by now.

ch750536

Drove to Listowel this morning, 9am. Was snow on the floor all the way. Heavy snow when we got there, for about 20 mins.

Sun came out, roads were steaming, never seen that in the winter before.

snow ghost

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Getting quite dark here. Strange weather really. If the showers out to sea make it here no doubt they will be of rain as temp is 3.6c. 40m asl.

It's dark miserable and drizzling away at the rain here... it was great a couple of hours ago, snowing away, which I wasn't expecting... as I post the drizzle is turning to sleet with a few big flakes in it!

And yes now it is snowing again!!! and has brightened up.

The weather is playing feck with me today!

Su,

Tis snowing here again!!!

Su Campu

snow ghost wrote: »

It's dark miserable and drizzling away at the rain here... it was great a couple of hours ago, snowing away, which I wasn't expecting... as I post the drizzle is turning to sleet with a few big flakes in it!

And yes now it is snowing again!!! and has brightened up.

The weather is playing feck with me today!

Su,

Tis snowing here again!!!

Aw jaysus I give up, it's giving me a headache!!

snow ghost

Su Campu wrote: »

Aw jaysus I give up, it's giving me a headache!!

Tell me about it!

It seems the main bulk of the heavy precip passed over as deep dark low clouds and rain for half-an-hour and then as it started to tail off it it got brighter, higher cloud, turned to snow, how ever that works - higher cloud perhaps?

naughto

snowing in castlebar good big thick ones not sticking yet tho:(

Snowaddict

Much later this afternoon & into tonight is certainly looking good for quite a few areas. Several areas, particularly those located inland & at a height of approximately 50M and higher, could expect a covering of perhaps 1 - 4 CM, with higher accumulations occuring locally.

The 06Z NAE Guidance was relatively constant on this risk, with the main snow risk spreading in from the Atlantic Seaboard by approximately 04.00PM & transferring steadily Eastwards. The snow risk should have become centred over the Eastern two thirds of the country by 00.00 Hours tonight & into the early part of Sunday as it continues to make gradual Eastward progress.



While the above has the potential to deliver a few CM of snow in several areas tonight with even more over high ground & locally, the period from Tuesday through to Wednesday needs very close attention. To show the potential, the 00Z ECMWF Operational output indicated the potential for total snowfall accumulations of 35CM or greater across Eastern areas of the country during the period between Tuesday & Wednesday. In fact, if the ECMWF 00Z Guidance (which is still at T+72) were to verify, crippling snowfalls would develop over mountainous areas of the East in particular, but with a definite snow risk across the majority of the country.



The track of the area of LP is very uncertain but the 00Z ECMWF Guidance offers the optimum outcome & would really send winter out with a blast, especially as for the majority of areas, the flow would have backed enough to a point North of East to ensure a flow off the land. Interestingly, the 850mb temperature profile also indicates support for widespread snowfall to develop.



Again, it must be stressed that this is quite a distance out yet at T+72 Hours, but with general agreement from UKMO GM & GFS Operational, the risk of a serious snowfall event is increasing for the general midweek period, especially for those areas located at height & inland from the immediate East coast. The risk at the moment currently stands at about 30% - 40%.

Regarding the Met Eireann outlook, it was based on the previous 12Z ECMWF Guidance from yesterday & therefore is slightly behind in that respect - possibly why it doesn't mention the risk of more organised precipitation developing later on Tuesday through to Wednesday.

Several areas, especially at height, should see at least a covering of snow tonight, provided that the main trough crosses the country as modelled on NWP Guidance. Already at 13.30, precipitation is beginning to develop and come onshore in Western districts.



SA

naughto

very heavy now starting to stick as well driving is leathal

cherryghost

naughto wrote: »

very heavy now starting to stick as well driving is leathal

where are you located?

naughto

if u see my other post,u would see but anyways castlebar has stoped now

nacho libre

snow falling at a steady rate now:D

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

snow falling at a steady rate now:D

seems to be plenty showers out west at the moment. no reports from limerick/kerry of any snow..are they of rain i wonder.

darkman2

derekon wrote: »

I wish to make an apology Darkman2 re my post yesterday regarding my view that I thought you were ramping about snow in Ireland on Saturday/Sunday. My apology is based on the following:

1. Met Eireann weather warning just issued for snow tonight in Munster & Leinster

2. Just watched the BBC forecast and Ireland (from the midlands through to Louth/Dublin/Wicklow is covered in white for this evening from around
7pm through to 2am in the morning

3. We are now in the "reliable" timeframe hence the Met Eireann warning

I humbly offer my apology which I hope you will accept in good grace

Derek

No need to appologise! Everyone has different opinions. That's what makes this board interesting.



Snowaddict I would love to discuss next week's prospects but someone locked the bloody thread regarding next week:rolleyes:


As for tonight, thanks for the observations in the west, it seems certain now that most, if not all areas South of Ulster, will have some appreciable snowfall this evening and for a time tonight. Turning very cold very quickly once it clears. Very icy roads in the morning.

munsterlegend

darkman2 wrote: »

No need to appologise! Everyone has different opinions. That's what makes this board interesting.



Snowaddict I would love to discuss next week's prospects but someone locked the bloody thread regarding next week:rolleyes:


As for tonight, thanks for the observations in the west, it seems certain now that most, if not all areas South of Ulster, will have some appreciable snowfall this evening and for a time tonight. Turning very cold very quickly once it clears. Very icy roads in the morning.

when do you expect the precipitation to reach our area darkman2? by the radar at the moment it looks like those showers are missing us.

darkman2

munsterlegend wrote: »

when do you expect the precipitation to reach our area darkman2? by the radar at the moment it looks like those showers are missing us.

IMO it is more showery in nature then it will be as it moves further inland through the afternoon. This means some in the Southwest might miss out but you should get a shower or two id imagine shortly. The system is not as developed for you as it will be further to the East. It's hit and miss with showers.


Clouding up here in North Dublin incidentally in a manner more reminisent of a frontal system rather then just a showery trough. Going to be very interesting to see this develope this evening.

WolfeIRE

nothing but one brief hail shower earlier.

nacho libre

The sun is breaking through the cloud now but still it remains cloudy overall- some of the clouds look as if there are heavier burst of precipitation within them. the snow here has been mainly light to moderate so far, and it hasn't stuck. still hopefully this is just the starter before the main course later in the week! it would be absolutely brilliant if winter went out with a bang!

darkman2

Tonight is nothing compared to what should occur Tuesday/Wednesday with 15 or more cm's of snow possible on the current model output. The UK Met Office already have an early warning for the UK.

Scubadevils

Snowaddict wrote: »

See that little in North Dublin on the coast where there is rain but everywhere else snow? - Yes, that's where I live :pac:

miseagustusa

its a lovely spring day here in Arklow!!! doesnt feel cold at all, just been walkin on the beach, not much of a breeze even, the sea was as calm as i've seen it in a long time!!!!

looks like not much snow for this area:mad: so not fair:( but i'm enjoying the sun:p

Vanhalla

snowing heavy in east clare. **** off snow

munsterlegend

darkman2 wrote: »

Tonight is nothing compared to what should occur Tuesday/Wednesday with 15 or more cm's of snow possible on the current model output. The UK Met Office already have an early warning for the UK.

thanks darkman2..sorry thought you were in the north cork area but must be someone else with a similar name.

that event on tueday/wedensday is more likely to the an east event or will it effect more of the country?

miseagustusa

the above chart looks promising for Arklow though!!!! wont get my hopes up just yet:):)